Nasdaq - Soon heading to $30.000?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at the Nasdaq .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than a decade, the Nasdaq index has been trading in a rising channel formation with the last retest of the support trendline being back in the end of 2022. At the moment, Nasdaq is retesting the upper resistance trendline and if we actually see a breakout over the next 2 months, we might see a similar rally of +50% compared to the one which we saw back in 2020.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Breakouttrading
Upcoming soonSuper Micro should follow Nvidia. Price is bouncing off the uptrend line support. I think is going to start to consolidate within the triangle to finally break up. I just bought some, I'll keep adding at every pull back. It might take a few more weeks. SL triggers if a weekly candle breaks down and closes below the lower vortex.
Possible scenarioThis is getting interesting. Looks like a breakdown a very bearish. But if the weekly candle closes up within the triangle that would be a bear trap. And it would be very possible that bulls try to break up the triangle. Let's see how the week closes and next week I'll have more clarity on what to do next.
Alibaba - Back to bearish (not)?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Alibaba broke below the major support trendline in 2021 we saw a massive correction of -75% towards the downside. Alibaba was then retesting another major level, this time a previous support area which is at $60. So far Alibaba stock is still respecting the bearish trendline, but it is just a matter of time until we will see a bullish trading opportunity on this stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NLC India 334 % PROFIT and Reach the Falling Wedge Target 267Rs.I have identified and Analyzed a "Falling Wedge Pattern" on 21-06-2022, at that Time the Price was 61 rupees. Now SUCESSFULLY Breakout the Pattern and Reach the Falling Wedge Target 267 rupees. After Breakout, Target Reached within a YEAR.
Overall PROFIT 334 % within 2 years. So the "Pattern" is most Crucial in stock market. Thank you.
I want to help people to Make Profit all over the "World".
A beautiful setup is approaching for GOOGL!🔉Sound on!🔉
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Hang Seng _ Wedge Pattern forming, Target 1_(20694), T2_(29000)Long Term Analysis : "Wedge Pattern" forming in "Hang Seng" and down trendline is "Breakout". So market move to Bullish Trend, wait for if Retest or Trend Continuation. And the 1st Target is 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement price (20694), 2nd Target is Wedge Pattern Top is 29000.
After Reach the Wedge Pattern Top (29000) expect Breakout the Pattern.
I want to help people to Make Profit all over the "World".
Bitcoin Poised for Surge Towards $85,000?Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are back in the driving seat, predicting a potential surge towards $85,000 in the coming months. This bullish forecast comes amidst heightened anticipation surrounding key U.S. economic data that could significantly influence investor sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy trajectory.
Technical analysts are pointing to a trendline formed by connecting several price points on Bitcoin's chart, suggesting a potential trajectory towards the coveted $85,000 mark. This technical analysis hinges on the assumption that the price will continue to follow the established trendline.
Factors Fueling Bitcoin's Optimism
Several factors are contributing to the renewed optimism surrounding Bitcoin:
• Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The upcoming release of key U.S. economic data, such as inflation figures and employment numbers, is keenly awaited by investors. If this data indicates a softening of the U.S. economy, it could bolster expectations of a rate cut by the Fed. A dovish pivot by the Fed, potentially lowering interest rates, is generally considered positive for riskier assets like Bitcoin, as it increases liquidity in the market.
• Institutional Adoption: The continual rise in institutional adoption of Bitcoin is another tailwind for the cryptocurrency. Major financial institutions are increasingly offering Bitcoin-related products and services to their clients, signifying growing acceptance and legitimacy within the traditional financial landscape. This broader institutional participation lends further credence to Bitcoin as a viable asset class.
• Scarcity: With a capped supply of 21 million Bitcoins, scarcity is a fundamental property baked into Bitcoin's design. This inherent scarcity, coupled with rising demand, could theoretically drive up the price of Bitcoin in the long term.
• Store of Value Narrative: Bitcoin proponents tout the cryptocurrency as a digital store of value, similar to gold. In times of economic uncertainty or inflation, investors often seek refuge in assets perceived as hedges against inflation. Bitcoin's limited supply and decentralized nature position it as a potential candidate for this role.
Technical Analysis: A Bullish Case
Technical analysts utilize price charts and mathematical indicators to predict future price movements. In the case of Bitcoin, some analysts are pointing towards a trendline established by connecting several significant price points on the chart. This trendline suggests a potential bullish trajectory for Bitcoin, with a target price of $85,000.
It's important to remember that technical analysis is not an infallible science. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results, and unexpected market events can disrupt even the most meticulously drawn trendlines.
Challenges and Considerations
While the outlook for Bitcoin appears promising, there are still challenges to consider:
• Regulation: Regulatory uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency continues to be a hurdle for wider adoption. Governments around the world are still grappling with how to regulate this nascent asset class. Stringent regulations could dampen investor enthusiasm.
• Volatility: Bitcoin is notorious for its price volatility. This volatility can deter risk-averse investors.
• Environmental Concerns: The energy consumption associated with Bitcoin mining has drawn criticism. If sustainable solutions aren't implemented, this could continue to be a black mark against Bitcoin.
Conclusion
Bitcoin's potential surge towards $85,000 hinges on a confluence of factors, including the upcoming U.S. economic data, continued institutional adoption, and Bitcoin's inherent properties as a scarce, digital store of value. Technical analysis also suggests a bullish trend. However, investors should be aware of the challenges posed by regulation, volatility, and environmental concerns.
UPl | Wyckoff Events & Phases Explained Wyckoff developed a price action market theory which is still a leading principle in today's trading practice.
The Wyckoff method states that the price cycle of a traded instrument consists of 4 stages – Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and MarkDown.
👉TEXTBOOK EXAMPLE Accumulation Schematic: Wyckoff Events and Phases👈
Price Action Analysis
And this is the accumulation stage -
1) PS— Preliminary Support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a continued down-move.
- Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
2) SC—Selling Climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually in high point and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom.
- Often price will close well off the low in an SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
3) AR—Automatic Rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly decline.
- A wave of buying easily pushes prices up.
- The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation.
4) ST—Secondary Test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand.
- If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be decline as the market approaches support in the area of the SC.
- It is common to have multiple STs after an SC.
5) SOS—Sign Of Strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume.
6) LPS—Last Point Of Support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after an SOS.
7) BU/LPS- Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistant, on diminished spread and volume.
All the phases of accumulation stage-
Phase A:
Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend.
-- Up to this point, supply has been dominant.
-- The approaching cutback of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC).
-- A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC.
-- If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation.
-- Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Phase B:
-- Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend
-- In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup.
--There are usually multiple STs during Phase B'
-- Institutional buying and selling impart the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
--Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume.
Phase C:
-- It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a final test of the remaining supply.
-- this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears).
-- It indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
-- The appearance of an SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis.
Phase D:
--During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top
--LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E:
--large operators can occur at any point in Phase E.
--These are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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Revive Traders
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Something big is comingThe Canadian Dollar is loosing steam, for some reason is losing value across the board. Maybe bc oil apparently has peaked and now is turning over. I opened a long position last week on NZD/CAD but I think this pair looks better, EUR/CAD looks good too, even USD/CAD. It could take a few more weeks to break out. Keep adding at every pull back. CAD is the new Yen.
SL if price action turns bearish: lower lows.
Taiwan Semiconductor - Unknown stock with trading potentialNYSE:TSM is one of the rather unknown stocks with an impressive market capitalization of 680 billion dollars.
Just a couple of months ago TSM finally broke above a major previous resistance level and confirmed the bullish triangle breakout. Momentum is quite strong so far so maybe we will never see the previous structure again. In this case there is no need to actually chase the all time high. However, a pullback might still be quite likely and this might present an interesting long opportunity in the future.
Levels to watch: $130, $100
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
B.L Kashyap & Sons Increasing Strength Can Be Held For Long-TermB.L.Kashyap & Sons Ltd is an EPC company engaged in the business of Construction of Buildings High-Rise Residential and Commercial Complexes, IT Parks, Institutional Buildings.
Total: 1,733.68 Cr Order value
Company has delivered good profit growth of 71.0% CAGR over last 5 years
Projects
• More than three decades of rich expertise.
• Completed 250 + projects and more than
140 million sq. ft.
Design Build Projects
• National High-Speed Railways
• Sabarmati Station
• DLF Downtown
• Embassy Flipkart
• Redevelopment of Gomti Nagar Station
• Hero Honda Motor Plant
• Jaipur & Chennai Metro
Company coming out of CDR – Moving towards Zero
Debt
• In the light of global meltdown during 2010 -13
operations of BLK were impacted resulting in
stress on the company
• BLK entered CDR in 2014
• Currently the company has no long-term debt and
has pared its consolidated debt.
• Reduction of Debt from 700 to ~ 270
• Currently the company only has CC and BG limits
De-risking business model – Residential to Commercial & Governmen
• Company has been awarded total orders during financial year 2022-23 to the
tune of Rs. 818.9 Cr
• The order book closed at Rs. 2402 crore for the year ended March 31, 2023
• Orders worth approx. INR 658 crore and INR 247 crore awarded during the first
and second quarter of FY2023 - 24
• Ending 30th June 2023 and the order book stood at approx. Rs. 2838 cr.
• Total Order Book stands at Rs. 3005 Cr as of September 2023
• During the quarter, orders were received across multiple segments like railways,
business parks, educational institutions, and residential complex
Growth driven to Profitability focus
• The company has planned capex of approximately
INR 25 crores during FY24. Capex for FY22 and FY23
was Rs. 8 Cr and Rs. 19 Cr respectively
• BLK is looking at increasing its footprint in the
infrastructure space related to its core business,
which is high quality structures and their associated
works.
BANK OF BARODA - Multi year Breakout Investment pick 40% ROIThe stock has given a multiyear Breakout in Monthly and continuing its momentum strong.
It has decisively broken resistance ranges of multiple years 2010,2014,2015,2017,2022,2023.
One may consider to enter on current market price and accumulate on dips for a target of minimum 410.
MPSLTD indicating Increase in Strength by Breaking Trend LineCompany has reduced debt.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 26.0%.
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 39.7%.
Company's working capital requirements have reduced from 34.3 days to 10.4 days.
Reported
Revenue 545.3 Cr
Reported
Revenue YoY +++ 8.83 %
EBITDA +++ 169.9 CR
EBITDA Margin +++ 31.15 %
EPS Growth YoY +++ 9.61%
Tremendous Growth Opportunities
• Maximize cross-sell and upsell with captive customer
base of 750+ customers.
• Scale central growth and marketing engine to acquire
new customers and expand geographic footprint.
• Consistent investment and deployment of new
capabilities across lines of business.
• Enter adjacent markets by re-configuring
products/services.
• Play the role of a Consolidator in a highly fragmented
market.
MPS is a B2B learning and platform solutions company powering education, and research for corporates. MPS has unlocked a new growth trajectory due to the combined effect of lower attention spans, rapid growth in digital consumption, and the recent advances in AI/ML.
BJP Election Jeete ya Haare BIKAJI FOODS ki Mithai to Banti hai
Company has delivered good profit growth of 39.5% CAGR over last 5 years
Delivered overall volume growth of 14.3% and value
growth of 33% in Q4 YoY
EBITDA margin expanded by 244 bps in FY 24 over FY
23. This was led by gross margin expansion by 329 bps
due to favourable material prices along with better
product mix and realisation.
In Q4 FY PLI income has been recorded amounting to
INR 930.5 millions (for FY 20-21, FY 21-22 and FY 22-23)
as all commitments have been fulfilled. Going forward
this will be recorded on accrual basis quarter on
quarter.
Total committed investment was done by 31 March 2024 as per committed timelines.
Realised amount of INR 484 millions for FY 2021-22 and FY 2022-23 in two tranches from Government.
Since commitment is completed, from this year onwards started booking PLI income in books of account under “other operating
revenue” as per accrual concept of accounting.
In current year booked income in books pertaining to FY 2021-22, FY 2022-23 and
FY 2023-24. Going forward same will be booked quarter on quarter basis.
Bikaji Foods International Ltd (previously Shivdeep Industries Limited) was founded in 1986 as a partnership concern and was converted to a limited company in October 1995. The erstwhile firm used to sell its product under the name of Haldiram, and from 1993 onwards, the company established the BIKAJI brand for its products. The company is engaged in the manufacturing and processing of bhujia, papad, namkeens, cookies, snacks and sweets, among other products. It also exports to more than 35 countries and contributes approximately 5% of sales. The company has ISO: 9001:2015 and ISO 22000:2005 certified manufacturing facilities in Bichhwal, Bikaner.
Bikaji Foods International Limited is one of India's largest fast-moving consumer goods ("FMCG") brands. The company's product range includes six principal categories: bhujia, namkeen, packaged sweets, papad, western snacks as well as other snacks which primarily include gift packs (assortment), frozen food, mathri range, and cookies.
GRINFRA is Sustaining @ 2 Years High Zone With Positive AttitudeOrder book as on 31st March 2024 is Rs 1,67,806 Mn
During the year, Company has transferred 7 operational HAM
assets to Bharat Highways InvIT
Subsequent to March 31, 2024, PCOD/ COD has been
received for below two projects
• Transmission system in Rajgarh - COD
• Galgalia-Bahadurganj (HAM) – PCOD
As on date Company has total 5 projects which are operational.
P ositive factors
• Significant growth in the scale of operations on a sustained basis with substantial segmental diversification in the revenue
stream while maintaining low leverage.
Key strengths
Transfer of assets to BHIT thereby enhancing its financial flexibility
GRIL has transferred 100% stake in seven operational NHAI assets to BHIT and received units worth ₹1,929 crore during Q4FY24
thus enhancing its financial flexibility. Following the transfer of operational assets to BHIT, GRIL retains four operational assets
in its portfolio, including one NHAI annuity project, one state HAM project, and the balance two NHAI HAM projects (one project
received PCOD during Q4FY24).
As indicated by the management, the InvIT units will have a lock-in period of one year from the
date of the allotment. GRIL has also entered into a right of first offer (ROFO) agreement with the InvIT, pursuant to which, GRIL
will grant a ROFO to InvIT, thus allowing the company to unlock its equity. Additionally, dividend income is also expected from
the InvIT.
Healthy outstanding order book position of the company
GRIL had a healthy outstanding order book position of ₹₹18,680 crore as on December 31, 2023, as against ₹19,529 crore as on
March 31, 2023, indicating revenue visibility of 2.29x of the FY23 TOI. The majority of these orders are with a price variation
clause, thereby shielding GRIL’s profitability from adverse movements in the prices to an extent. The order book is also
geographically diversified with presence in more than 11 states, with no state contributing to more than 25% of the order book.
Furthermore, GRIL has segmentally diversified its portfolio by venturing into new segments of ropeway, multi-modal logistics
park, hydro power project, transmission which is expected to reduce its dependence on the road sector.
The order inflow during current year i.e. FY24 has been slow due to lower awarding in road sector. Nevertheless, healthy order
book position provides revenue visibility over medium term.
Expected range-bound scale of operations in FY24 with stable profitability
GRIL’s scale of operations have shown a healthy growth over the last five years, despite COVID-19 related disruptions.
The TOI grew at a healthy CAGR of 13% over the last five years ended FY23 from ₹4,952 crore during FY19 to ₹8,149 crore during FY23,
led by strong execution capabilities. During FY23, the TOI remained stagnant over FY22 due to a low order intake and the pending
receipt of the appointed date of eight HAM projects. The TOI is expected to remain almost stagnant in FY24; however, it is
expected to witness minor de-growth in FY25 on Y-o-Y basis due to pending receipt of the appointed date in projects. secured in
FY23.
The surge in commodity prices and intense competition in the road sector led to minor moderations in the margins of GRIL,
in line with other industry players, during the last five years ended March 31, 2023. Nevertheless, the margins continued to remain
healthy at 16.12% for FY23.
However, the margins declined to 13.32% during 9MFY24 on account of lesser execution in Q2FY24
due to monsoon and pending receipt of appointed date in HAM projects. Correspondingly, during 9MFY24, GRIL reported TOI of
₹5,532 crore as against ₹6,153 crore during 9MFY23.
EMAMI LTD Have Broken & Sustaining at 6 Years High
Zandu Balm Mal.... Kaam pe Chal ...
Company is almost debt free.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 19.2% CAGR over last 5 years
Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 33.1%
Consolidated Net Sales at ₹ 881 crore grew by 8%
Revenue from Operations at ₹ 891 crore grew by 7%
Domestic Business grew by 8% (Volume growth of 6.4%)
International Business grew by 8% (Constant currency growth of 9%)
Gross Margins at 65.8% improved by 270 bps
EBIDTA at ₹ 211 crore grew by 6% despite 39% higher investments in A&P
PAT at ₹ 149 crore grew by 3%
TRIL Showing Again Bullish Mood at All Time High ZoneCompany has reduced debt.
Company has delivered good profit growth of 57.2% CAGR over last 5 years
Most preferred Indian Brand, known for manufacturing High Voltage Transformers viz. 220 kV 400 kV, 765
kV, 1200 kV indigenously
❑ Expertise in designing and manufacturing transformers from 5kV up to 1,200kV voltage class
transformers and from 0.5MVA to 500MVA capacity; thereby having presence across the value chain
❑ Manufactures entire range of transformers viz. Power, Distribution, Furnace, Rectifier Transformers &
Shunt Reactors, creating a unique positioning for itself in the transformer industry
❑ Supported by backward integrated manufacturing facilities housed in Gujarat
❑ International presence in 25+ countries
New Order Received during the year ₹ 2,050 crore
Order from Solar Power Plants:
❑ Received order for Solar Power Plants for 4 nos. 250 MVA 2x33 kV/400 kV from a reputed EPC Company
❑ Received order for 8 nos. 315 MVA 2x33/400 kV from a Maharatna PSU
Order from Private Sector Industry:
❑ Received maiden order for 400 kV Single Phase Generator transformers of 6 nos. 210 MVA from a steel plant
Order from Metro Projects/ Railways:
❑ Received order for Delhi Metro (DMRC) and Chennai Metro Projects
Order from Central Power Utility:
❑ Received order for 72 nos. Transformers & Reactors from a leading Central Power Utility in India
❑ Received order for 2 nos. 250 MVA ICT from one of the PPP model Company
❑ Received order of 4 nos. 60 MVA Traction Power Transformer (Scott Connected)
❑ Received an order of 220 MVA EAF transformer for Exports to be used in steel melting application, it
is second biggest rating in the world. Unit to be export in Q1FY25.
Other Achievements:
❑ Successfully tested the most stringent Dynamic Short Circuit test on multiple transformers of various voltage
ratings. With this company has crossed a commendable milestone of successful Dynamic short circuit test on
a record 150 plus transformers in last two decades.
❑ Technology for 765 kV class shunt reactors has been fully absorbed
Q4FY24 revenue ₹ 500 crore; FY24 revenue ₹ 1,273 crore
❑ Q4FY24 EBIDTA ₹ 65 crore; FY24 EBIDTA ₹ 129 crore
❑ Q4FY24 EBIDTA margin 12.9%; FY24 EBIDTA margin 10.0%
❑ Revenue improvement due to faster execution of major orders, better production planning, improved
receivables, internal control systems, etc.
❑ Export Contribution as a % of Revenue 11%
❑ Average monthly collection from customers during H2FY24 was Rs.144 crore which indicates stringent
internal controls systems in place.
❑ Tailwind to continue & company expects much higher profit margins in years to come.
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