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BluetonaFX - EURAUD Falling Wedge LONG IdeaHi Traders! There is a falling wedge pattern on EURAUD, which signals a possible reversal of the bearish trend we have seen over the past couple of months. Price Action 📊 An aggressive price rejection candle followed by a momentum swing suggests that bulls are currently in control of the market. We are looking for a further bullish momentum break above the resistance trendline. Fundamental Analysis 📰 Australia left their interest rates unchanged, and the statement from the RBA left traders unconfident about Australia's economic outlook. Support 📉 1.63946: PREVIOUS DAY'S LOW Resistance 📈 1.66430:RESISTANCE TRENDLINE Risk ⚠️ No more than 2% of your capital. Reward 💰 At least 4% of your capital. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
3
EDUCATIONAL: F 200%+ move in 82-84I want to start periodically sharing my retrospective analysis of market leaders, that made triple digits gains during bull markets in different time-periods. The purpose of this analysis is to find commonalities in price patterns and behaviour among the best-performing stocks, that repeat themselves in each and every up-cycle throughout market history. That will help new stock market participants to better exploit new emerging opportunities. As my stock market history teacher - John Boik - use to say it: "Study the past, so you can profit in the future". Retrospective analysis of Ford ( NYSE:F ) during 1982-194: 0. Great Relative strength. When SPX (see the upper chart) makes lower lows, FORD is making higher highs on noticeable pick-up in average daily volume. Also notice who price creates a flat-base and latter breaks out (BO) from it with volume surging above average; 1. First BUY could be made here with very tight 3% stop, a bit or right after W. O'Neil's «shake-out + 10%» rule (buy if price shakes you out and quickly reverse and runs higher by 10%) after the double bottom pattern in the bottom of the base. 2. Because of the bear market nature of the general index, quick 12-15% gain could be used to trim 1/2 or 2/3 of the position to guaranty profits, and selling the rest for break-even during the following re-test of break-out area; 3. Could be bought again during the BO of perfect VCP with tight 2.5% stop, and... 4. ...sold for the quick 5-7x return-to-risk gain. 5. When the index makes its final lower-low, F's price rebases, making a higher-low, and quickly runs higher and breaks out in Aug82 along with the SnP500. F could be bought and shaked out during initial BO attempt, and then re-bought after price follows through in two days with volume support. Notice how price pattern rhythms with prior Dec81-Mar82 base. 6. This big red reversal bar with substantial volume pick-up could be used to book another 15-17% gain with only initial 3-4% stop. 7. It is already clear that F is the new market leader of this new up-trend and it makes sense to track how the price acts if it corrects to 50MA (Red line) that coincides with re-tests of prior BO point. If to zoom in into the volume dynamics of this basing actions around 50D MA, accumulation (surge in volume with closes in in upper part of the bar dominate volume on corrective bars) becomes very evident. 8. New BUY coming from this low cheat BO with massive volume support. Because the average cost was so low, one may want to move stop to break-even or tracing 50D MA. 9. Price closed in the upper third of the day - good supportive actions on the 50D MA. If stopped-out, shares could be re-bought by the end of the day or on next day BO with tight stop and low of the day. 10. Shares could be sold into this kind of climactic run above the 7 month channel line + the general market barely moves to old highs indicating relative divergence and lack of overall momentum in the market. 11. Good tight area. Could have been bought at BO and sold at BE after the BO proved to be fake one. 12. New BUY under shake-out + 10% rule with stop bellow 50D MA after it crosses the buy price. Massive volume advance on BO day acts as confirmation of large institutional interest in the stock (notice how these green volume sky-scrapers bars tend to dominate the red selling bars latter-on until the up-trend changes). Notice again how the price shows the same character shake-out pattern it made during Dec81-Mar82 and May-Aug82. As Nicolas Darvas observed that "stocks have characters just like people". 13. Perfect selling area: price moves above the channel line in negative divergence to the market (index is not making higher-highs). 14. Same type of character behaviour with shake-out and Mark Minervine's «slingshot» move on volume support, where «shake-out +10%» buy rule could be used to establish the position with tight stop bellow the short-term 8/21emas. 15. Sell 3/4 of position or all in this first evident distribution bar + the market seems tired and is loosing momentum. Very noticeable distribution bars starting to appear - some heavy selling and not much buying. Important sign of character change. 16. This low volume pattern during this up-move shows that late retail buyers are stepping in with no institutional support. That is the hint that price advance is prone to failure. 17. Definite selling signal. Price dives bellow 50MA with substantial distribution started dominating the volume pattern.
NYSE:FEducation
by artemfedorov
Bright future ahead for gold and silver minersAs long as the price holds recent Oct lows, I will continue to expect it to move towards next important resistance area: 31-35-38. Afterwards it would be ideal for price to consolidate and form a handle part of the cup with later break out above 35 pivot to confirm its intentions to move to next important resistance areas: 43-48-52 Short-term trading thesis: I will wait for price to consolidate around prior highs (preferably 29-30), providing a low risk entry point to consider any long trades. Long-term trading thesis: Establishing a position within this potential basing periods along the right side of the cup with later breakout - all these looks reasonable for me for any positive expectations in coming months and 2024. Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays.
AMEX:GDXLong
by artemfedorov
Will silver shine again? As in gold, possibility for a new bull market in SLV is in the cards for coming 2024. The price structure* on weekly time-frame suggests there is a high chance that SLV, has found its bottom last year in Sep'22 and with higher low this year in Oct'23. As long as Oct low holds, I would expect the price to move toward next resistance zones: first 22 and later important 24-25 zone. Afterwards, if price builds a handle and breaks-out above 24 that would confirm the move to 27-30-32 resistance area. Overall, traditional fear-type assets look mid to long-term bullish to my eyes in coming months and years. Trading thesis : I need the price to confidently move above 50D MA, and create at least short base with several days/a week of consolidation around previous basing attempts (most recent being around 21) with later break-out above this pivot to consider longs. * Important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall structural context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
AMEX:SLVLong
by artemfedorov
New bull market in Gold As per my Elliot Wave* analysis, Octobers low may mark the the mid-term bottom for gold and price has started to work on building the right hand side of the cup. As long as 168 holds, I would expect the price to move towards next important resistance area 194-200 area. Ideally build a hand of the cup after reaching that level and break-out above 194 towards important next targets: 212-224-230. Also notice the "Mona Lisa" of cup-and-handle pattern in GLD on a monthly time-scale The symmetry and volume dynamics, that subsides in the handle area, is almost picture perfect. Trading thesis : I will be looking for price to digest its rally from Oct lows, preferably around 177-180 area, creating a cheat pivot and relatively low risk entry point. This entry, if materializes, may create a good long-term opportunity to build position for the coming 2024 and potentially beyond. * Important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall structural context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
AMEX:GLDLong
by artemfedorov
Set-up is there for one more move up in AFKS Russian large Investment company AFK Systems has nice technical potential for at least one more bullish leg up towards 19-21 region. Price could have ended its correction started in Aug'23 and could be forming the bottom of the new cup. In order to confirm this scenario, we need price to first hold its Sep's low at 16.60 and move decisively above its 50D MA, breaking out above 17.80 low cheat pivot. Not positioned in this name as for now, but will be looking to start entering if price moves closer to 17.80, consolidates for a day or two and breaks out above highs of 9th Oct.
RUS:AFKSLong
by artemfedorov
1
MoscowExchange is prone to take a rest soonRecord new account openings on MoscowExchange during 2023, has played its role in almost 90% stock advance since the year start. The stock and volume dynamics show strong uptrend with good signs of accumulation on a weekly chart. My chart analysis shows, that price has reached an important resistance zone of its strongest uptrend wave 3 at around 182 area and is now to be expected to re-base again, correcting ideally to its mid-term area of support: 155-166 area. We may also notice that price looks extended from its 10w MA, that is a historical cautious sign for continuation of short and mid-term advance. We may also notice, that in Mar23 once price went above 50D MA by 18% that led to 2 months of correction. Despite my bearish leaning short-term, my analysis still has room for price to extend to higher resistance targets to 195-200 area as an alt. wave 3 target. Trading thesis : if price breaks bellow 21ema, preferably with volume pick-up, I would expect a move down to 166-155 area. If price decides to instead move above 185, I expect it to find resistance in 195-200.
RUS:MOEXShort
by artemfedorov
Do Li's electric vehicles are charged enough for Q4? One of my favourite ideas in electrical vehicle space - China's Li. Mid-term price structure still looks bullish to my eyes, despite Sep's sell-off bellow 50D MA. While the price is still under it (what is a "no-go" rule for any substantial long trades for me), I do like how price managed to find foothold slightly crossing below the ideal support zone. In the ideal world, I would argue that price is trying to form the bottom of what will later form into the lower are of a cup. That means that the price needs to hold above 33 area and start building the right side and later the handle of the reliable cup-and-handle pattern. In the short-term, I want the price to reclaim 21ema and fill the gap-down, happened late September. If the price follows through, we will see the key moving averages ordering into the right bullish sequence: 8ema/21ema/50ma what will probably provide us with the MA's crossover and at least several days tight cheat area with low risk-entry point. The fundamental side of Li's story makes almost the perfect case for the next up-cycle's true market leader: top-level triple digits earnings and sales growth last quarter, consistent double digits 3 quarters sales growth; super high annual earnings estimates. I would place a bet, that if price manages to move above 50D MA, institutional sponsorship will be increasing providing the fuel for the suggested bullish scenario.
NASDAQ:LILong
by artemfedorov
POSI - Russian leader in cybersecurity The actuality of cybersecurity for Russia in the absence of global brands becomes even sharper and provides unique opportunities for the best local provider to capture growing market share. Stock price technical perspective still illustrates strong up-trend, with some caution signals to be mindful about if one decides to trade it. On a weekly time-frame, price is solidly supported above the 10w MA, that is crucial for me to consider trading the upside of any stock. Although, I cautious about important fibonacci resistance levels at 2500 area. I price will not be able to follow-through its recent break-out attempt from 5 weeks flat base and move above 2500 zone, than I have hard times considering wave 4 finished, and will expect more deep and long correction (probably to 2070-1850 support zone). That being sad, in my trading, I try not to forecast, but to follow the price and volume dynamics. And when the set-up is favourable and I have positive traction in my personal portfolio, I will take it without any hesitation. Thesis : Above 2415 line and I expect price to follow-through and move towards 2600-2800 resistance zone. Below this line and I am out, and wait either for more tight entry set-up or stepping on the sidelines at all.
RUS:POSILong
by artemfedorov
At least one more bullish leg up potential for AMZN in Q4'23 While my long-term macro Elliot wave count* on AMZN is not certain, but if the price manages to hold above 123, I am counting on at least one move up towards 151-160 resistance area in Q4 this year. In the short-term, 50D MA region will serve as an important resistance zone, and point of interest for big institutional money. We either see the price getting institutional support in this area, or we may be left with substantial selling pressure. That is why definitive move above 50D MA, with volume pick-up, would be an important marker for confirmation of the higher potential, mentioned above. This region also coincides with Sep's gap-down, that was not yet filled with any followed-up upward bounce. Breaking below 123 area, either in the short-term, or during the next correction higher in the wave structure, would be the turning point for me, to consider something major bearish is potentially in the cards. Trading thesis: if price breaks out above yesterday's highs with volume support, longs could be initiated with 3 and 5% stop losses. * One important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have a subjective idea about sentiment and overall context to support, but not guide, my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by artemfedorov
2
Nice 10w Flat Base, but substantial resistance overheadI like the base that is forming in OLED 165 pivot point. Notice 5 weeks of tight weekly closes - good sign of potential accumulation is happening. Overall structure looks mid-term bullish to me and my ElliotWave analysis (EW). Although, one shall be mindful of important resistance in 171-180 area, that my cause price to correct to back to 152-141 support zone, before it moves to higher resistance targets (>190). One important caveat to EW: I use it solely to have an idea about sentiment and overall context to support, but not guide my investing decisions. Price and volume is the key, and only price pays, not the fibonacci resistance or any wave count. Short-term trading thesis : quick scalp longs could be considered if price breaks above 165 pivot with volume support. 171-179 area could be used as profit taking target to at least to finance the risk.
NASDAQ:OLEDLong
by artemfedorov
HHRU - Leading job-search company hints that... ... Russian labor market is far from being week. Due to massive wave's extensions beyond classic fibonacci levels, I am not placing big confidence on my EW count, but solely from market price and volume dynamics there is an argument to be made for price starting new advance to at least prior Sep's highs. Although, I am not a fan of big late-August weekly reversal candle, creating overhead supplies (potential downside pressure from those buyers who bough the Aug's highs and still holding loses), I do like how price finds support on ascending 10w MA line, that coincides with an ideal area for wave "iv" correction's support zone. So from the mid-term bullish price trend nothing is wrong or to be consider abnormal. Zooming in to the Daily landscape, we may observe, how the selling pressure subsides and price tries to form the right side of the potential "cup". Volume profile looks like how we want it to be with higher selling volume on the left side of the "cup" and higher buying volume on the right side of it. That potentially illustrate that sellers and their shares are being absorb by the buyers, that are starting to dominate moving the price up. General thesis : until price holds above 50D MA and in particular above 3050 area, at least one more wave to 4300 or even to 4900-5150 resistance zone could be considered. Short/Mid-Term thesis is wrong bellow 4300 zone. I did started building position in early October, I will consider holding if the price will not move below -3 and -5% from my average cost. I don't have any issues with stepping aside being stoped out and re-entering at the higher prices, if the price so wishes. All I need is tight risk-management parameters and price cooperating with my thesis in timely manner.
HLong
by artemfedorov