Breakouttrading
ready to breakThe chart for Bhartiya International (NSE) is a monthly timeframe chart. Let's break it down and analyze it step by step.
### General Observations:
1. Resistance Breakout:
The price had previously formed a resistance around the **₹638 level**, which was tested multiple times between **2016 and 2018**. However, in those attempts, the price failed to break out.
In **2024**, the price has decisively broken above this level. A breakout like this, especially on higher volume, suggests strong bullish momentum.
2. **Volume Analysis (Highlighted Circle)**
There is a noticeable increase in volume at the beginning of 2024, right before the breakout, which is often a confirmation of a strong trend reversal. The increased volume shows that institutional or significant investor participation is present, supporting the upward movement.
The subsequent monthly candles also show significant gains, supported by decent volume, which adds further confirmation to the bullish outlook.
### Candlestick Patterns:
1. **2024 Candles:**
The latest candle (September 2024) is a strong bullish candle with no upper wick, indicating that bulls dominated the session, closing near the high of the month.
Prior months in 2024 show a series of higher highs and higher lows, a classic uptrend pattern.
2. **Long-Term Trend:**
The stock was in a prolonged downtrend or consolidation from **2018 to 2020**, followed by a recovery in **2021**.
After some consolidation around the **₹337 level** (acting as previous resistance turned support), the stock began its upward movement starting around **late 2023**.
### Chart Patterns:
1. Cup and Handle Formation:
There seems to be a potential **Cup and Handle** formation spanning from **2016 to 2023**:
The price peaked in **2016** around **₹638**, followed by a prolonged correction down to **₹85** (forming the cup base) and eventually moving back up to the resistance level.
The **handle** was relatively short and formed in early **2024**, leading to a breakout.
This pattern is typically bullish and often leads to strong upward momentum post-breakout.
### Possible Targets:
**Target 1 (Near-term):**
After the breakout above ₹638, the next potential target can be projected using a Fibonacci extension or by measuring the height of the cup (from ₹85 to ₹638, i.e., approximately ₹553) and adding this to the breakout point.
This gives a near-term target around **₹1200**.
**Target 2 (Long-term):**
If the breakout sustains and the stock continues its uptrend, we could see much higher levels in the longer term. A next major psychological level would be around **₹1500** or higher.
### Support Levels (Stop-Loss):
**Immediate Support:**
₹638, the previous resistance, now acts as immediate support. If the price closes below this level on a monthly basis, it may signal weakness.
**Major Support:**
₹337 is a strong support level that previously acted as resistance. In case of a significant market correction, this level could be tested.
### Summary:
**Bullish Bias:** The stock has broken out of a long-term resistance supported by strong volume, indicating bullish momentum.
- **Target:** near-term target could be around ₹1200, with potential for even higher levels over the long term.
- **Stop-Loss:** A conservative stop-loss can be set just below ₹638, or for a larger safety margin, below ₹337.
This stock seems to be in the early stages of a breakout, and the chart is giving clear bullish signals. However, regular monitoring is required, especially for potential corrections or changes in market conditions.
The 4HR USDX W-Bottom Rocketing USD - Today!
I know it reads like a headline in a newspaper trying to sell the Sunday paper, but that is really not me. But I am also not the kind of person who finds keeping a good secret - a secret.
We are all here on Tradingview to watch each other's backs in a risk management and learning experience kind of way, in relation to being a consistent and profitable trader.
A couple of things to be aware of today in your Friday-trading. I am quite convinced that the USDX will be propelled upwards & finally through 101.85 causing a sustained breakout in the dollar over the next several days to a week.
I see this occurring right before, at the open or within in an hour or 2 of the NY market session today. What reason(s) do I have to be propagating this type of fear and panic into Traders today. I will tell you right below!
The 4HR W/Bottom is now properly formed. Well the finishing touches are being made to the right-side of the W as I write, which will give the dollar plenty of relative strength. Helping that cause? Well of course that would be the momentum -oscillators RSI & Stochastic's on the higher timeframes.
I watch these a lot in my own trading because they warn me about supply/demand levels especially when commodities, currency's, stocks, metals etc, enter their overbought and oversold zones - for example the USD has been beaten down the past month or so and it's now oversold, but when something is oversold, provided that it's a commodity, currency or thing that people want and demand again, it's oversold state becomes one with increasing buyer demand at cheaper prices - then boom - breakout.
I will be watching closely the Vix Index as well. I see it possibly breaking higher than 15% today and as for Gold - well after yesterday's shot-in-the-arm, I for one will be Shorting it back to 2430 to 2450 levels.
Finally, take a look at the following current 4HR USDX chart. What I see occurring with the Oscillators' is that the RSI / Stochastic's on the 1HR, 2HR, 4HR Daily & Weekly Charts, will cross-up out of their oversold condition's concurrently and simultaneously, igniting the USDX off it's W-Bottom and smashing through 101.85 without so much as the blink of an eye.
Maybe I am a looney you are thinking? Yes, but a looney who capitalises ahead of time.
Intel - (Much) Lower from here!NASDAQ:INTC is about to create such a massive higher timeframe candle - a drop is immanent!
Within one month, a setup played out and we are back to beginning. During the past 30 days, Intel rejected the support towards the upside with a move of +25% and immediately reversed the entire move. The monthly candle will close so bearish, I do expect a break below the current short term support, followed by a retest of the multi-year long support area.
Levels to watch: $30, $26
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Why NZD JPY is pulling back & setting up for another run!
NZD JPY broke out today in Thursday Asian currency trading.
But like anything in life......you need to take a breather....before setting up and running again.
We feel it has pulled back to a Fib level to attract more buying & with a tiny bit of luck but probably none required.... it will be on the move again.
ALLCARGO Logistics are Stablishing and Sustaining in PerformanceNSE:ALLCARGO
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KEY BUSSINESS HIGHLIGHTS
Global events coupled with high demand across trade lanes during the second quarter of 2024 (calendar year) has led toimproved volumes and increased freight rates. Demand is expected to continue through the peak season till end of theyear.
LCL volume for the quarter ended June’24 stood at 2.25 million CBM, similar on YoY basis and representing a QoQ growth of6%. FCL volume for the quarter stood at 156K TEUs, similar to last quarter and up 9% on a YoY basis.
ECU Worldwide onboarded a new leadership team in Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay as part of growth initiatives in LatinAmerica.
Contract Logistics business has reported a revenue growth of 13% on a QoQ basis and 22% on a YoY basis on the back ofincreased wallet share from existing clients.
Express Business: Operating cost continues to get optimized to bring about future growth in EBITDA. For Q1FY25 EBITDAstood at Rs. 20 crores, up 11% YoY and 33% on QoQ basis
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Supply chain market is estimated to be at ₹63,000
crores.
• ASCPL is a leading pan india 3PL player with an
expansive network
• Market leadership in chemical warehousing and
dominance in western India
• Building strengths in auto & engineering and ecommerce
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ROSSARI BIOTECH Showing Change in Price StructureNSE:ROSSARI
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Update on the expansion projects at Dahej Facilities
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• In the Q2FY24 the Company had announced an expansion of its facility at Dahej by adding up
20,000 MTPA capacity for products related to HPPC in the specialty chemical space, as well as for producing ingredients for its subsidiary companies.
Also, to cater to the growing
demand in agro chemicals, home and personal care, oil & gas and the pharma sector, the
Company had further announced expansion of the Ethoxylation capacity by 30,000 MTPA at
the Dahej facility of Unitop Chemicals Private Limited.
• Work on both these projects are progressing as planned. Commissioning is expected to
happen, in a phased manner in the current year
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• Consistent growth trajectory over the past three years, driven by both organic and inorganic growth strategies
• While near-term investments and strategic initiatives have led to a moderation in ROCE and ROE, the balance sheet position
remains strong.
The Company is confident of reporting improved return metrics in the future as these investments start yielding
results
Microsoft - Correction Is Not Over Yet!Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) can still drop a little lower:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
It seems like the correction on Microsoft is not over yet and following previous price action and market structure, a move back to the previous triangle breakout level seems to be quite likely. However Microsoft still remains in an overall bullish market so looking for long setups is best.
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - The Bleeding Is OverNYSE:BABA dropped roughly -75% after it broke the long term trendline towards the downside back in 2021 before it found some strong support at a previous horizontal support level.
Click chart above to see detailed analysis 👆🏻
Bulls are still not giving up on Alibaba and after the strong retest and reversal of the all time low back in 2022, Alibaba managed to consolidate and stop the agressive downtrend. If Alibaba actually manages to break back above the confluence of resistance, this stock is actually back to a bullish market and we could see the beginning of a new uptrend and maybe even new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $81
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading