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Bren Crude Oil important support at 6720Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 7060 Resistance Level 2: 7170 Resistance Level 3: 7280 Support Level 1: 6720 Support Level 2: 6610 Support Level 3: 6520 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:BRENT
by TradeNation
Oil Price Falls Below $69Oil Price Falls Below Pre-Escalation Levels of Middle East Conflict According to the XBR/USD chart: → Prior to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran on 13 June, the price of Brent crude was hovering around the $69.00 mark; → Following US bombings in Iran, the price spiked at the Monday market open, reaching a high of approximately $77.77 (as we reported on 23 June). However, after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel — later confirmed by statements from both sides — oil prices dropped sharply. This morning, Brent is trading around $68, which is even lower than the level seen before the initial strikes. Media outlets report that analysts broadly agree that fears have eased, even if the ceasefire appears fragile. Market participants seem to view the likelihood of the conflict escalating into a full-scale ground war — involving US troops and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — as low. Shipping through the strait is reportedly returning to normal. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart Interestingly, the $69 level — from which prices surged on 13 June — acted as resistance yesterday (as indicated by the arrow on the chart). It can be assumed that the longer the ceasefire holds, the less relevant the fears that have served as bullish drivers. In that case, Brent crude prices may continue fluctuating within a downward channel, outlined in red, with the possibility of a short-term rise toward its upper boundary. Nevertheless, the key drivers for oil prices will remain the fundamental backdrop and official statements regarding the situation in the Middle East and other geopolitical factors. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Is the oil market signalling de-escalation?After an initial 6% spike at the open, U.S. crude oil futures reversed sharply—falling into negative territory—as markets priced in the possibility that Iran's latest retaliation may be more symbolic than escalatory. According to President Donald Trump, Iran gave advance notice before launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, allowing defences to intercept the attack and resulting in no reported casualties. While Tehran publicly described the strike as “devastating and powerful,” the lack of impact on the ground and the pre-warning have fuelled speculation that Iran was aiming to save face without triggering a broader conflict. The swift reversal in oil prices reflects that sentiment. For now, the market appears to be signaling that escalation may pause here.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Oil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on IranOil Price Surges at Monday Open Amid US Strikes on Iran As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the Brent crude oil price formed a bullish gap at the opening of financial markets this Monday, surpassing last week’s high. Only three days ago, we drew attention to Donald Trump’s statement that a decision regarding US involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict would be made within two weeks – yet over the weekend, US aircraft dropped bombs on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now oil prices are likely to be affected by Iran’s potential move to block shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, analysts suggest that in such a scenario, the oil price could climb to $100. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart The ascending channel plotted last week remains valid. The fact that the price is pulling back (as indicated by the arrow) from the high set at the market open suggests the market had already priced in a significant risk of US involvement in the Iran-Israel military conflict. Key points: → Technical support in the near term may be provided by the area where the lower boundary of the blue channel intersects with the $76 level (which acted as resistance at the end of last week). → Ultimately, fundamental factors and official statements will play a decisive role in oil price movements. It’s worth noting that, following the strikes on its territory, Iran is threatening retaliation against the US. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open? In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Strait of Hormuz risk priced in—or not yet?Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension with the U.S., notably in 2011, 2018, and 2020. The Strait is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through daily. Several banks warn that a full closure could push crude prices above $120–$150 per barrel, or higher if the disruption is prolonged. Still, most analysts view a complete shutdown as unlikely, since Iran also depends on the Strait to export its own oil. Technically, recent WTI candles suggest that the risk premium may be fading. Price action near $74 shows hesitation, raising the risk of a developing double top—particularly if support at $70 fails. Unless tensions escalate materially, such as the U.S. becoming more directly involved, WTI may consolidate between $70–$74.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Brent and WTI: Is $100 oil just Around the corner?#Brent and #WTI prices are steadily climbing, now reaching $73.30 and $71.15 per barrel. The market is showing strong signs of an upward trend, similar to what we saw in 2021–2022. With global demand picking up and increased interest from major market participants, analysts believe prices could soon push past the $100 mark — especially amid ongoing global tensions and rising consumption. Standard Chartered forecasts Brent reaching $95 by December 2025, while some outlooks go even higher. What’s fueling this potential rally? Top 5 reasons oil may surge in the coming months: Global instability : Tensions in the Middle East and unrest in key producers like Venezuela and Nigeria raise concerns about supply disruptions. Any flare-ups could push prices to $90, $95 — or beyond. Economic recovery : Asia and developing economies are bouncing back fast. With industrial activity rising, so does energy demand — including for oil. OPEC+ tight supply policy : OPEC+ is likely to maintain production cuts to support prices and keep the market balanced. Low reserves, limited expansion : Stockpiles remain tight, and exploration has lagged in recent years. If demand spikes, producers may struggle to scale output quickly. Aviation and petrochemicals rebound : Global air traffic and plastic manufacturing are growing, increasing demand for jet fuel and oil-based feedstocks. Together, these factors create a strong setup for upward momentum in Brent and WTI prices. According to FreshForex analysts , the current levels could mark the beginning of a new growth cycle.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Time for a Rise in Oil Prices $$$When analyzing the recent movements in oil prices through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, it appears that the current structure is completing an ABC corrective formation. Initially, the A wave has developed as a strong upward 1-5 impulse structure. The B wave evolved through a classic ABC correction, pushing prices down to the support area marked as (B). Following this correction, early signals indicate the initiation of the C wave. In this context, the technical structure suggests a potential new upward momentum in oil prices with the activation of the C wave. The target zone for the C wave should be monitored in consideration of the existing trendlines and historical resistance levels. Nevertheless, under the current market conditions characterized by high volatility, it is critical to monitor volume and momentum indicators to confirm the C wave and ensure key support levels are maintained.
TVC:UKOILLong
by kofc
Oil Surges on Israel-Iran Nuclear Strike Fears🛢️ Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites are pushing oil ( BLACKBULL:WTI , BLACKBULL:BRENT ) higher! Bloomberg reports Trump’s G-7 exit and Tehran evacuation warning as Israel-Iran strikes intensify (June 17, 2025). Analysts warn of Strait of Hormuz risks, with 17M barrels/day at stake. 4H Chart Analysis: Price Action: WTI ( BLACKBULL:WTI ) broke $75 resistance (June 2025 high), exiting a 3-week range. Brent ( BLACKBULL:BRENT ) mirrors at $78. Volume: 4H volume spiked 15% vs. prior week, confirming breakout buying. Key Levels: Current Support: $75 (WTI), $78 (Brent) – former resistance, now support. Next Support: $73 (WTI), $76 (Brent) – prior range lows, tested twice in June. Context: Oil gained 2% this week, driven by Middle East supply fears, with WTI at a 1-month high. Trading Insight: The $75/$78 breakouts signal bullish momentum. $73-$76 is a key support zone for dips. Watch Iran retaliation news and volume for supply disruption clues. What’s your 4H oil trade? Post your setups! 👇 #OilPrice #WTI #Brent #IsraelIran #TradingView
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DCAChampion
Brent Crude Hits Key Supply Zone After BreakoutPrice has aggressively broken out from the descending wedge and reached a strong 4H & 1D resistance zone between 74.50–76.00. • 1D Chart: Sharp breakout from long-term descending trendline. Approaching resistance from Feb-April supply area. • 4H Chart: Bullish structure confirmed by higher lows and breakout of ascending channel. • 1H & 23m Chart: Consolidating beneath resistance, forming a triangle structure. Key Zones: • Support: 71.50–72.00 • Resistance: 74.50–76.00 Bias: Neutral short-term (range). Bullish if 76 is broken and held.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by AutoMarkets
Israel Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices SurgeIsrael Strikes Iran. Oil and Gold Prices Surge According to media reports, Israel launched a large-scale overnight strike on Iranian territory, targeting dozens of military and strategic facilities linked to the country’s nuclear programme and missile capabilities. Israeli officials justified the action by citing an existential threat from Tehran, which, according to their intelligence, is accelerating its development of nuclear weapons and expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles. In response, Iran has vowed severe retaliation, stating that the United States and Israel will “pay a heavy price” for the attack. US President Donald Trump has urgently convened a meeting to assess the situation. Commodities Market Reaction In the wake of these developments, gold — the primary safe-haven asset — surged sharply. The XAU/USD price broke above its May high, rising past $3,440. However, the all-time high near $3,498 remains intact for now. Oil prices also spiked due to fears of supply disruption. The military conflict threatens shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Traders quickly priced in the risk of war, anticipating a supply shortage driven by large-scale instability in the Middle East. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart Brent crude oil price has risen to the upper boundary of a large-scale descending channel (shown in red), which is defined by lower highs from 2024–2025. As anticipated, this upper boundary acted as resistance, with the price forming a peak above $76 before reversing downward (as illustrated by the black arrow). From a technical standpoint, following such a sharp rally, Brent is vulnerable to a corrective move. In this scenario, a pullback into the orange zone is possible, where support may be found at: → The psychologically important $70 level; → The 50% Fibonacci retracement level; → The former resistance of the purple descending trendline, now turned support. Nevertheless, given the scale of the geopolitical threat, it is unlikely that market sentiment will allow Brent to decline significantly in the near term. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Slowing Global Economy and Output Hikes Weigh on Brent OilBrent crude oil is holding steady around the $60 level, even after OPEC announced another 411,000 barrels per day increase in output, following similar hikes in May, June and smaller one in April. This latest adjustment comes at a time when global economic slowdown concerns are rising, making the decision a risky one. Although the main reason points to non-compliance from Kazakhstan and Iraq, some believe the United States may have played a role, possibly through pressure from Trump aimed at controlling inflation during the ongoing tariff hikes. With several consecutive production increases now in place, a growing surplus is likely to develop over the second half of 2025. This would maintain downward pressure on oil prices if demand fails to keep pace. At the same time, the broader economic outlook is weakening. Recent manufacturing activity data from China, the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom all came in below 50, suggesting a faster rate of contraction. The presence of widespread tariffs is expected to continue weighing on business sentiment and consumer demand, potentially leading to rising unemployment and slowing growth. In this environment, any short-term spikes in Brent and WTI prices are likely to remain opportunities to sell, unless there is a meaningful shift in underlying fundamentals. For a more detailed view of economic trends, please refer to the latest monthly report. Brent crude has been in a steady downtrend since March of last year. While the price movement doesn't follow a perfect trend channel, the structure has generally held well. At the moment, Brent is hovering near the middle of this declining channel. The former long-term support zone around $70 to $72. If prices move up toward this zone, it could present a fresh selling opportunity as long as the resistance holds. On the downside, the $60 level and the area just below it have formed a solid medium-term support, which has held up so far. Still, oil bulls should be cautious around the $60 mark. Even though support looks strong for now, the overall direction of the trend and the broader fundamental backdrop suggest that this level could eventually break. Any long positions taken near current levels should factor in the potential for renewed downside pressure.
FX:UKOIL
by ftdsystem
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Reaches 1.5-Month HighXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Brent Crude Reaches 1.5-Month High In our analysis of Brent crude oil six days ago, we identified a large contracting triangle and a local ascending channel. We also outlined a potential scenario involving a bullish breakout above the upper boundary of the triangle. Although this was not the base-case scenario, the XBR/USD chart now suggests it has played out: yesterday, the price climbed to nearly $67 per barrel — its highest level since the end of April. The main bullish catalyst appears to be ongoing trade talks between the United States and China, which have raised hopes of a resolution to tariff-related tensions between the world’s two largest economies. At the same time, rising oil prices may exacerbate geopolitical tensions, particularly amid Israeli threats to strike ports in Yemen — a risk that could disrupt supply chains across the Middle East. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart From a technical perspective: → Brent crude continues to move within an ascending channel (marked in blue); → the upper boundary may now act as a support level. The fact that the price is holding in the upper half of the channel indicates strong demand-side pressure. Based on this, it is reasonable to assume that as long as Brent remains above the $65.75 level (the retest zone of the breakout), the technical outlook will remain predominantly bullish. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Brent Oil H1 | Potential bounce off a multi-swing-low supportBrent Oil (UKOILSPOT) is falling towards multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 64.42 which is multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 63.70 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 65.71 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:UKOILSPOTLong
by Tradu
2
XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Rises to Key ResistanceXBR/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Rises to Key Resistance Yesterday, the price of Brent crude climbed above $65.60 — the highest level in over a week. According to media reports, several bullish factors are driving this move: → Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran over abandoning Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting oil export sanctions; → Wildfires in Canada, which have significantly reduced oil output; → Market reaction to the OPEC+ meeting held over the weekend; → A weakening US dollar. Technical Analysis of the XBR/USD Chart From a technical standpoint, Brent crude oil: → Has been forming a short-term ascending channel (marked in blue) since the beginning of the week; → Has approached a major resistance level. This resistance is defined by the upper boundary of a narrowing triangle, with its central axis around the $63.70 level — a price that could be considered a fair value based on trading over the past one and a half months. This situation points to two possible scenarios: → A downward reversal from the key resistance, with expectations that the price will return to the triangle’s central axis. A break below the lower boundary of the local blue channel would support this scenario. → An attempt at a bullish breakout of the triangle. While this scenario cannot be ruled out, it appears less likely due to the global economic slowdown risks posed by tariff-related trade barriers. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
1
Dive into the oil storm of 2025!In 2025, oil prices declined due to rising output from OPEC+ countries, growing inventories in the U.S., weakening global demand, a stronger dollar, and ongoing trade tensions between major economies. Further pressure came from OPEC+’s plan to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day — three times more than previously scheduled. A final decision is expected at the May 31 meeting. This move aims to strengthen the Alliance’s market position, particularly against U.S. shale producers, but it has deepened the supply-demand imbalance, pushing prices to their lowest levels in four years . Despite current challenges, several factors could support a recovery in oil prices : 1. Rising demand in emerging markets : Developing economies are expected to continue increasing energy consumption as they grow, boosting oil demand. 2. Limited investment in production : Lower investment in exploration and drilling — especially in a low-price environment — may lead to tighter future supply, which can support prices. 3. Geopolitical risks : Conflicts and instability in oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, traditionally driving prices higher. 4. Slower non-OPEC+ output growth : While non-OPEC+ production is expected to rise in 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts slower growth in 2026, easing pressure on prices. 5. Possible OPEC+ output cuts : If the current production increase fails to deliver the desired results, OPEC+ may reverse course and reduce output to stabilize the market. In 2025, the oil market is under strain due to surging OPEC+ output, inventory surpluses, weak global demand, and economic uncertainty. Yet, despite prices plunging to four-year lows, there’s still room for recovery. Future price trends will hinge on OPEC+ decisions, emerging market demand, geopolitical events, and investment patterns in the energy sector. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting could be a turning point for the entire market.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Brent Crude Oil Weekly Short Trade SetupBrent Crude Oil Weekly Short Trade Setup (as of May 22, 2025) This chart reflects a prolonged downtrend within a clearly defined descending channel. Brent Crude Oil continues to respect the dynamic resistance of the upper boundary and has failed to sustain bullish momentum in recent months. The current price action presents a low-risk, high-reward short opportunity based on technical structure and projected price movement. Entry Price: 64.994 The entry level at 64.994 is tactically chosen near the midpoint of the descending channel and slightly below the recent consolidation area. This level marks a rejection zone where price previously attempted to break higher but failed to gain traction. The reason for this entry is: • Price is reacting to the 20-period moving average (blue line), which has consistently acted as dynamic resistance. • The last bullish push failed to close above the mid-channel zone and reversed near the projected retest line, indicating sellers are still in control. • Entering here means you're entering after confirmation of a failed breakout rather than preemptively. This is a conservative but smart entry point, favoring a continuation move in the direction of the dominant trend. Stop Loss: 68.867 The stop loss is placed at 68.867, which aligns with the chart’s "Conservative Projected Retest Price Level" marked in green. Here’s why this stop makes technical sense: • This area corresponds to prior horizontal resistance and is very close to the descending channel’s upper boundary. • A move above this zone would invalidate the bearish structure, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. • Setting the stop here protects the trade against a deeper bullish retracement while still giving it enough room to breathe around minor fluctuations. The risk is controlled, and you're only exiting if the market structure genuinely breaks. Take Profit: 56.850 The take profit level is projected at 56.850, slightly above the "Weak Support Zone" marked in red. The reasoning: • This zone has acted as prior psychological support, but the label “weak” implies limited buyer strength here, increasing the chance of a breakdown. • Price has tested this level before and rebounded only modestly, suggesting vulnerability. • It also aligns closely with the lower boundary of the descending channel, which provides technical confluence as a realistic downside target. • Setting TP just above support allows for safer profit booking without being too greedy, avoiding the risk of reversal right at a major support. This exit point balances profit potential and probability, giving the trade a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Trade Structure Summary • Trend: Bearish (confirmed by lower highs/lower lows and downward-sloping channel) • Technical Confluence: Dynamic resistance, channel boundaries, horizontal zones, moving average rejection • Market Sentiment: Weak upside follow-through despite occasional rallies, suggesting bearish control Risk-Reward Outlook • Entry: 64.994 • Stop Loss: 68.867 • Take Profit: 56.850 • Risk (SL - Entry): 3.873 • Reward (Entry - TP): 8.144 • Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.1 This setup offers more than twice the reward for the risk taken, making it an attractive candidate for traders seeking asymmetrical returns.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by SupertradeOfficial
Crude oil gains could be limited. Here's whyAlong with other risk assets, crude oil has had a positive day, albeit a much quieter one compared to the major indices. It has been held back in part by the dollar also finding good support. So, I think a large part of the rally today in WTI is just a function of the market pricing in higher demand because of lower tariffs. Thus, it is the removal of a bearish factor driving prices higher, which could be factor for a while yet as market finds a new equilibrium. The underlying issue of an oversupplied market is what will ultimately determine oil prices. On that front, you have the OPEC ready to release more withheld supplies as it doesn’t want to lose more market share to non-OPEC producers. Thus, the upside linked to a brighter demand outlook should be capped. So, while I do think prices may rise a little further, I don’t think that we will see significantly higher prices with the current state of supply picture. I wouldn’t be surprised if $70 turns into resistance now on Brent, or if WTI holds this shaded yellow resistance range you can see on this chart around $65 area. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
WTI - Will Oil Return to the Uptrend?!WTI oil is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within its medium-term descending channel. If the downward trend continues towards the zone, the next opportunity to buy oil at a good price will be presented to us. A break of the drawn downtrend line will also be another confirmation to enter the oil buying process. Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain its pause on interest rate hikes. According to the bank’s asset management division, the continued strength of the labor market remains a crucial factor influencing the Federal Reserve’s decisions, prompting the central bank to adopt a cautious stance. In a recent note, Goldman Sachs stated: “The Federal Reserve is currently in a holding pattern, waiting for economic uncertainties to diminish.” Although recent employment data have exceeded expectations, the bank believes that initiating a rate-cutting cycle would require clear signs of labor market weakening—a development that could take several months to materialize. The note further stated: “Since the labor market has yet to exhibit any significant softening, the likelihood of another hold decision in the next meeting is high.” Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, ahead of his upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, responded to a question about the potential renaming of the “Persian Gulf” to the “Arabian Gulf” in official U.S. documents. He stated that a decision would be made following his trip and a related discussion. Trump acknowledged the sensitivities surrounding the issue, saying he does not wish to offend anyone. He also referenced his prior executive order to rename the “Gulf of Mexico” as the “Gulf of America,” which he described as a necessary move. He concluded by noting that a final decision regarding the name of the Persian Gulf would be made after the scheduled discussions.Additionally, the RIA Novosti news agency reported on Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin had officially begun talks at the Kremlin. Prior to the discussions, Putin expressed his intention to engage with President Xi on “a broad range of bilateral relations,” emphasizing that the Russia-China partnership is mutually beneficial. He also expressed his willingness to visit Beijing for a celebration marking China’s victory over Japan. According to the report, the two leaders are expected to issue joint statements and address the media following their talks. A correspondent from the TASS news agency reported that the agenda for the Xi-Putin discussions is likely to include bilateral cooperation in various sectors, such as energy, the conflict in Ukraine, and the development of the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline project.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be comingIn 2025, oil prices have come under significant pressure, falling more than 21% since the beginning of the year — from $75 to around $59 per barrel of #BRENT. This decline was driven by increased production from OPEC+ countries, weak global demand (particularly in Asia), heightened economic risks due to trade disputes, and rising output from non-OPEC producers such as the U.S. and Brazil. Together, these factors created an oversupply amid stagnant demand. Currently, the oil market continues to be shaped by a range of influencing factors. While accurately predicting prices remains a challenge, several key drivers are likely to steer oil price movements in the near term. Here’s a look at the main bullish and bearish factors: • Geopolitical tensions (Bullish driver): Ongoing or emerging conflicts in key oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe) raise concerns about potential supply disruptions. Even without actual disruptions, the perceived risk leads traders to factor in a “risk premium,” pushing prices higher. Any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes. • OPEC+ policy (Bullish/neutral driver): The alliance’s production decisions remain a major influence on supply. If OPEC+ maintains or tightens its current output cuts to balance the market or target price levels, this will support price growth or at least stability. Conversely, quota breaches or output increases would weigh on prices. • Global economic outlook (Bearish/bullish driver): The trajectory of global economic growth directly affects oil demand. Signs of GDP slowdowns in major economies (U.S., China, EU) tend to weaken demand and drag prices lower. On the other hand, if economic growth proves more resilient than expected, it would support oil demand and prices. Uncertainty over the growth path of many countries persists in 2025. • Non-OPEC+ output growth (Bearish driver): Countries outside of the OPEC+ alliance — including the U.S. (shale), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada — continue expanding their production. Significant output increases from these nations could offset OPEC+ efforts and lead to market oversupply, applying downward pressure on prices. • Energy transition and underinvestment (Medium-term bullish driver): ESG pressures, the global shift toward renewables, and uncertainty around long-term fossil fuel demand have led to underinvestment in new oil exploration and development. If existing capacity declines faster than new projects come online, a structural supply deficit could emerge, supporting higher prices even amid the energy transition. FreshForex analysts believe that, given ongoing geopolitical risks, strict OPEC+ policies, and underinvestment in production, the oil market is nearing a potential upward reversal. A modest uptick in demand or increased tension could be enough to put oil back on a growth trajectory.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004