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Brent-wti

4hs and Daily analysis on Crude Oil Futures by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your view of the chart. Main items we can see on the 4hs chart: -The price is inside an ascending channel -On the Daily chart (image below) we can see that the price is close to a significant resistance zone + the Dynamic upper resistance of the ascending channel -Currently, we can see an Inner bullish trendline inside the ascending channel, and it has been broken -Now we will be waiting for a clear pullback, and ONLY IF THAT HAPPENS we will develop our setup, with an entry below the structure / stop above the Higher high/ and break-even before the first target -The full movement we will trying to catch is going to be towards the second bearish target Daily Chart:
NYMEX:CL1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
UKOIL 10% DUMP INCOMING SETUP FOR BEARSHEY GUYS, HOW ARE YOU TODAY? HOPE YOU LIKE WHAT YOU'VE SEEN SO FAR IN BRENT. PLEASE LEAVE AN UPVOTE IF YOU'D LIKE TO GET MORE UPDATES FOR OIL TRADING. THANK YOU. OK SO WHAT WE GOT IS A STRONG BEAR SETUP ON DAILY WITHIN THE RISING CHANNEL PRICE IS SLOWLY CLIMBING, HOWEVER A NEW BIG DUMP IS PENDING SOON. MY TARGET IS -10% FROM 63.40-63.60. BEST ENTRY AND STOP LOSS WITH TARGET - DETAILS - SEE CHART. THIS IS A SWING TRADE SETUP SO YOU HAVE TO HOLD THIS FOR A WHILE FOR MAX POTENTIAL. ALSO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU ARE SHORT SELLING WITH HIGH LEVERAGE VIA FX BROKER, KEEP IN MIND THE NEGATIVE SWAP FOR HOLDING YOUR POSITION. NOVEMBER//DECEMBER VERY BAD SEASONAL PERIOD FOR CRUDE OIL SO I'M EXPECTING A BIG DUMP AND REJECTION FROM HIGHLIGHTED LEVELS. GOOD LUCK AND LET'S MAKE SOME MONEY, ASGCORP
FX:UKOILShort
by asgcorp
3
4HS and Daily Analysis on US OIL by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your own setup Main items we can see on the 4HS chart: a)Currently, the price is on a corrective structure (Flag Pattern) b)Flag Patterns are considered continuation structures c)The Only level that remains as a solid Support zone is the current one d)We will be waiting for a breakout of the structure, and then a small correction below the Flag Pattern e)If that happens we will trade the breakout of the small correction (Green and red arrows) f)If this scenario goes as expected, we have a really interesting Downside potential. Daily Analysis:
TVC:USOILShort
by ThinkingAntsOk
Spitting Thoughts : BRENT/WTI, Trading the Drone Attack?....I had a friend who said to me as soon as I said I have a Long position on an airline stock CFD, would I short sell that stock CFD if, god forbid, something bad happens to that airline? It made me sick to think about it. If there were accidents happened and there were ways that me as a currency/stock CFD trader, able to take advantage of it i.e short or long the involved currency or stock while someone probably hurt or died from that accident, would I still do it? I do not know as of now if there were human casualties from this drone attack to Saudi oilfields (I pray that no one was killed) but as soon as I read the news yesterday, I knew the oil price would shoot up. I could not help myself as a trader, almost immediately, thought of this: buying the dips. The Brent closed at $ 60.43 and price as of now is $ 67.xx. I appreciate institutional traders do manipulate market prices for Brent and WTI. What makes the energy market little bit more sensitive is it like pegged with geopolitics. The market reacts this way because potentially, this oil field destructions would cost Saudi 50% of their daily production. The supply will be definitely affected. Demand Enough fundamental analysis, what does the technicals tells us? There is nothing in my end. Price shoots up and the spike, at the moment has stopped. I am not saying I will trade this as I do not feel good about it, but if someone asked me if I was a human being with no heart and still want to trade the Brent based on this, what would I do moving forward? Buy the dips. I will look at "key" old resistance levels and see If I could find bullish triggers around that price levels at $ 66.00 - $ 66.50. I expect the price will continue to go up as long as the narrative remains that Saudi Arabia production will be affected, even the company that runs the oilfield claims that they will get it running in no time, market confidence will remain bearish on the company (consequently bullish for the Brent and WTI). Retail traders who don't care much about fundamental analysis, is already lining up to short this instrument hence that is just FOOD for institutional traders who looks at liquidity above anything else right now. But please, don't trade this.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by sufiansaid
Trading the Brent-WTI SpreadBoth UKOIL and USOIL are important in the energy sector, as they reflect the two most important types of Oil: UKOIL refers to the Brent crude which is extracted from the Oil fields in the North Sea, and USOIL refers to Western Texas Intermediary (WTI) which is extracted from the Oil fields in the United States. UKOIL is the reference Oil price for about two-thirds of the oil traded around the world, while WTI is, expectedly, the dominant benchmark in the US. The main differences between the two types relate to their API Gravity, i.e. how light or heavy they are, and their sulfur content. Both WTI and Brent are considered to be light crude oils, however, the former is lighter than the latter. In general, the lighter the crude oil, the higher the price as they produce a higher percentage of gasoline and diesel fuel per barrel of crude oil when converted into these products by a refinery. Regarding sulfur, WTI's content is lower than that of Brent's, even though both belong in the sweet crude oil category, making them easy to refine and safer to extract than sour. By contrast, crude produced by OPEC countries tends to be relatively sour. Overall, WTI is both lighter and sweeter than Brent, which should make it more expensive given that it can refined into fuel more easily. Given that WTI is mostly landlocked though, and thus not easily transferred, prices for both types of Oil have always traded at more or less the same levels, at least until 2011. Since then, the Shale Oil revolution has changed the world of refining by providing even lighter oils for processing. Remember that WTI was mainly refined within the US, given that the country had been a net importer of Oil for the past 75 years. This forced refineries to be built in a way that accommodated both Brent and WTI, where the former represented the bulk of foreign imports and the latter represented domestic production. The problem with Shale oil is that it is too light to be refined and thus they have to mix it with heavier crude (such as Venezuelan oil) in order to be able to process it. Given that exports from the US were not allowed, the boom in the Shale Oil production forced the country into overabundance, and thus pushed the WTI price lower. This was more or less resolved in December 2015, when the ban on US crude Oil exports was lifted. This pushed the Brent-WTI price differential close to zero, a level which was more or less maintained until mid-2017, whereas prices once again diverged by more than $5. Brent-WTI Spread (Image) After the effect from the lifting of the US Oil export ban subsided, what mattered most was proximity. Given that the US is not as close to the countries which have significantly increased demand (notably Asia and Africa) over the past years, the increased cost of shipping WTI from the US to China or Bangladesh would make it far cheaper to ship it from the Middle East, as travel time would be halved. As already noted, Brent prices are used in the Middle East. Thus, as demand for Oil increases in Asia, and given that the US is closer to Europe whose demand for Oil has been declining, Brent-based contracts are likely to dominate the markets in the coming years. As such, the spread between Brent and WTI is also likely to continue its increase, even though the level is likely to be affected by other factors as well. Still, that does not mean that the spread is always meaningful: there are times when the markets may overdo it with the spread which then returns sharply down. June 2018 is a good example, with the spread jumping to $10 in the first 10 days of the month, only to return to $3 in the first days of July. The inverse relationship is also statistically valid, as a regression analysis using daily data from January 2018 until now suggests that the spread's value in the previous day has a statistically significant negative effect on the Brent price, with the coefficient standing at 0.05. Note that any type of such statistical analysis is unlikely to be able to fully capture the extent of the relationship. The formula would interpret a drop in the Brent price following a decline in the spread as evidence of a positive relationship, something which could have just happened on a whim, or because the market realized that Brent was overpriced, or even that Brent declined by more than WTI on days during which the spread was high. This is what happened during the June-August 2018 period, when the price of WTI increased by more than the Brent price, in the lead-up to the end of June, with the spread between the two remaining relatively stable for a month. Then, after mid-July the spread rose again reaching around $7 by the end of August. Spread MAs (Image) Using the Brent-WTI spread and its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day MAs, the 20DMA peaked on June 22, and indicated a turnaround from the June highs on July 05, at which point the 20DMA crossed the 50DMA. A further confirmation arose when the 20DMA crossed the 200DMA on July 13, however, this should have been viewed with caution as the spread closed on its 200DMA. At the moment, the spread appears to be heading downwards, with the 20DMA crossing the 50DMA on November 29, 2018. The two MAs appeared to have been converging, however, an unexpected decrease in the spread pulled the 20DMA down again. Importantly, the spread can provide valuable information for traders. As suggested above, an increase in the spread suggests either Brent is over-reacting or WTI is under-reacting to an overall Oil market movement. As such, if the spread is expected to increase, traders could position themselves to gain from this in a simple way: if Oil prices are increasing, knowing that the spread will increase suggests that UKOIL is expected to make a bigger move than USOIL and thus it would be more profitable to trade it. To sum this up, have a look at the following table: if we are seeing a bear market, then expectations of an increase in the spread would imply a USOIL over-reaction. On the other hand, if we expect that the spread will decrease, this would imply a UKOIL over-reaction.  On the other hand, if Oil prices are increasing and the spread is decreasing then USOIL is expected to make a larger move than UKOIL. Overall, understanding where the spread is headed can provide the trader with important information regarding the instrument which is likely to make the biggest move. Knowing this, can make the trader more equipped to pick an instrument for his/her position; at the same time, proper risk management is very important. Table for Spread (Image) Come join us today at HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by HotForex
Possible Scenarios for OILWelcome to this MONTHLY chart showing possible scenarios over the next years, after OIL has bounced once again on the level of $50 in the past months potentially taking us higher near term up to $70. Let us now depict the possible scenarios out of this market, with the conditions that would trigger any of them and some arguments supporting each. The first thing to consider, is that after the bounce at $50 and its current positive trend, it would be very likely that the levels of $70 could be tested before the end of 2019. Given the recent US sanctions against the Venezuelan government, affecting the OIL supply coming from that country, prices might see an immediate fuel until $70 levels are tested. However, if the level of $70 is reached it might be wise to consider that this level has acted before as a resistance and act carefully then. Would see a good long trade only if this level is surpassed, where we could expect prices reaching up to $84 until 2021, where the the next possible resistance is located. Now, given that Oil has seen the surge of Shale Oil increasing the supply in the market, and the fact that at these price levels Shale is pretty much profitable, we could see a downward bounce on the levels of $70, back to $50 by 2021. An added pressure to the downside would be a production adjustment from OPEC, as well as the world's efforts to increasingly develop renewable energy supply around the globe, which would affect the demand for oil in the long run. If we see carefully, a possible head and shoulders could be formed by the fractal formed if the price bounces back from $70, resulting in prices below the level of $50 after 2021. Well, there they are. Two possible scenarios. Upvote if you liked it!
OANDA:BCOUSD
by TradeSniperAI
Crude oil projectionIt seems we are going to have some steep runs...I project a steep run to 84 dollars per barrel, then a drop to retest head and shoulders neckline (as it did so in the past pattern), second run up to the fib circle and Gann angle. And then a fast drop to 30 dollars per barrel (trendline) down through the neckline. Many clues have been drawn from the past pattern behaviour. I locked the scale, as its important all the drawing tools and lines stay in the same place. You can move the chart around though.
TVC:USOILLong
by ICFX
Brent (UKOIL) - Targets For The Next 2 Days: 77.81$ to 78.95$After failing my targets for today, I am pushing them with some slight modifications for the next couple of days. The day covered action between the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement levels of B to C, and finished right above the 0.618 of 5 to C. My target zone is now between the level 1 of B to C, 0.618 & 0.786 of 5 to C, and the 0.236 extension of 1 to 5. A reversed H&S also seems to be forming. Mid-term analysis remains in play, I think we are already the first impulse wave of a new cycle which should take us above 80$ again.
FX:UKOILLong
by ArthaVidya