Crude Oil RallyCrude oil to carry on rallying to eliminate previous highs and aim toward 51 - 60, Prices remain more than 20 percent higher than a six-week low hit earlier in August
Brent-wti
USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17The IEA Oil Market Report was largely in line with OPEC's assesment yesterday - Non OPEC output was seen falling in 2016 by 900,000 B/D - However, they differed on the 2017 perspective with 2017 expectations from the IEA forecasting a modest growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017. Opec Output however rose to an eight year high up 400,000 B/D in June at 3.21M B/D on the back of Saudia and Nigerian growth.
On the margin the IEA actually came out on the margin relatively bearish for the oil market and its future - citing a global oil supply increase at +600,000 B/D to 96m in June - with Non OPEC seen at 55.9m B/D.
Nonetheless, the IEA went out of their way to highlight that the oil market had made an extraordinary recovery from "Market Surplus" to "near balance" in Q2 2016. The IEA Uped the World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 (up +0.1M B/D), whilst seeing World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017. On the margin it is unsure what the net forces are for 2016 and 2017's demand-supply balance will be, though a 1.4m B/D in 2016 increase in global oil demand growth outstrips the Non-opec 200,000 B/D increase in supply foretasted - this is medium term bullish for Oil . They remained on the fence with Brexit concerns which imo is a positive positioning for the oil market given there should be a negative bias
Other notable statements were "There is still an ominous investment gap building up in the oil industry that might, depending on how quickly today's record high oil stocks are eroded, create the conditions for sharply higher prices over the medium term." and "Our underlying message that the market is heading to balance remains on track, but the modest fall back in oil prices in recent days to closer to $45/bbl is a reminder that the road ahead is far from smooth." - these comments in mind, traders should use this information to understand that volatility is likely to be higher so TP/SL should be adjusted accordingly to reduce the margin of error. Personally, i think further USD strength may continue to dull the oil market.
IEA Monthly Oil Report Analysis:
-IEA: Global Oil Supply Rose 600,000 B/D to 96M B/D in June
-IEA: Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016
-IEA: Non-OPEC Output Will See Modest Growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017
-IEA: Non-OPEC Output Rose in June by 205,000 B/D to 55.9M B/D on Partial Recovery in Canada
-IEA: OPEC June Output Up 400,000 B/D to Eight-Year High of 33.21M B/D on Rise in Saudi, Nigeria
-IEA: Says Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Output to Near-Record Rate of 10.45M B/D in June
-IEA: Says Iranian Output Rose to 3.66M B/D in June, up 50,000 B/D From May
-IEA: Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at Record 3,074 Million Barrels by End-May
-IEA: Market Showing Extraordinary Transformation From Major Surplus to Near Balance in 2Q
-IEA: Says High Oil stocks Are Threat to Recent Stability of Prices
-IEA: Ups World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016
-IEA: Sees World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017
-IEA: Says Middle East Oil Output Rose to Record High of 31.5M B/D in June
-IEA: Says Hard to Draw Conclusions About Brexit
-IEA: Says High Oil Stocks Pose Threat to Price Stability
www.iea.org
THE ASCENDING WEDGE IN LOGARITHMIC COORDINATES - SOON WILL BREAKThe forecast till June 1, 2016. The down movement will be very powerful.
The up movement since January 20 - no other than deception.
32$ - is the minimum aim.
Crude Oil 4/20/2016I hope you are not short oil, because it just broke above a major line. Watch the lines.
SPY/USO/VXX/GLD/SLV Ratio 4/18/2016 (Short-Term View)There is giant rising wedge forming. This ratio seems to indicate the aggregate perception of the US economy - the higher the better. As you can see in August 2015, there was a huge leg down which was unprecedented in this chart.
Brent. $43.62 - is a good level to start short for couple weeksfalse breakdown of the blue trend going down (since June, 2014)
$WTI #crude in #AUD fractal target d bottom in late April$WTI #crude in #AUD . Fractal target double bottom in late April
OIL | RAID STRUCTURE [UPDATE]So finally as expected in the first chart I've made about this structure oil went down on it's last stop to raid before make a higher high. Seems like it found a double top, this wont last for ever USOIL will raid that stop for sure.
There are few possible cases:
1st: Keep bouncing from current trend channel and raid this "double top" and maybe further
2nd: Break this vertical trend channel and find a bottom at an old stop zone raided and raid this "double top".
3rd: New low. (Low odds)
Regards and happy trading!
CRUDE'S SPREADING, BRENT OIL vs WTI CRUDE'S SPREADING, BRENT OIL vs WTI
Crude's wars still is in action as it seems like final capitulation all crudes vs WTI / USOIL
Waiting for Brent / UKOIL at minus 4/5 floor
Where is the bottom in crude?Oversold on Bollinger, but Indicator momentum in line with new lows.
I am looking towards the extension of the previous lows this year to get to 34-35 for support, then 33 (old front month low of January 2009)
Until then, more of the effects of the OPEC meeting, which yielded more supply coming on line in the near future.
These levels are not worth shorting (for me at least), but to sit tight and observe until more meaningful things materialize IMHO
Spread between WTI and Brent oilAn overlay of the chart of WTI and brent oil prices over time, I thought it'll be pretty interesting to share this.
How geopolitical and the American shale oil boom is shaping up the differences.
Crude Cuts Up LongsI haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher.
My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to the $42.13 longer-term trend line (purple dotted line).
OPEC... or Saudi Arabia, rather, will continue to put the big hurt on US shale plays. The EIA crude inventory report shown a surplus of 8.9 million barrels, following a increase of 10.1 million barrels the following month. The API data was even more bearish, suggesting an increase of over 12 million barrels.
US shale companies will continue to pump, even as rigs fall to multi-year lows. Even given the 120+ days of declining gas prices, demand is still not there.
Potential long accumulation could be interesting in low $42, perhaps lower. However, $80/90 barrel oil is not even going to be possible. $55/60 seems more realistic.
