USOIL is looking overstretched, correction can comeTraders, USOIL has been breaking all short opportunities and is very over extended. Watch USDCAD for clues. If and when USDCAD will start to rise there are chances that will start to fall. There is a pattern there and it can fall any time. This fall will be sudden possibly based on some sort of news event with careful planning of their geopolitical agendas.
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Brent-wti
GOLD: course to support zoneAnd so, as predicted, Gold is feeling the strongest pressure from the US dollar. There is no need to wait for indulgences from the American yet. The instrument will clearly return to the support area 1723 - 1740.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: dollar sets the paceAnd so, oil once again confirms its current desire to go up and fixes new highs. But the rapid growth cannot continue forever, although everything is turning out in favor of "black gold". Further movement of oil will depend on the dynamics of the US dollar, and the US dollar foreshadows further strengthening.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: forecast for Sept 27 - Oct 1There was no negative news for the oil market following the September Fed meeting. Interest rates and asset purchases remained unchanged, although the rhetoric continued to escalate. In particular, the Fed announced its readiness to make a decision to start cutting the asset purchase program at the next meeting. Additionally, an increase in expectations for the level of the base rate in 2022-2023 was announced.
Consequently, buying priority remains, but at the moment it is risky to get into a long position. The price would be corrected. From the very beginning of the week, the instrument may start its downtrend movement. It will be much more conservative to wait for oil to approach the resistance line of the ascending channel and try to sell around the level of ~ 78.
Buying mood for gas and coal, as well as the expected deficit in the oil market by the end of the month, would continue to support oil prices. The trading instrument, taking into account the expected correction, would remain above $ 75 per barrel.
Brent: oil strengthening And so, oil continues to demonstrate a fighting spirit. Growth is expected to continue. The focus is on the area of resistance 76.15 - 77.85, from which a downward correction is expected. After that, the price is very likely to continue to grow further.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GOLD: there is no hope for buyersAnd so, after a strong breakout last week for Gold, the price should not be expected to rebound. The likelihood of this scenario is minimal. Now either a balance would be formed or the price would go down further (most likely).
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USOIL - BRENT - WTI : Will it ever pass 76$ this year? Maybe ...This is my idea for Oil Price movement until year end. Half way from Tech Analysis and Fundamental
WE WILL TAKE IN CONSIDERATION
Price History
Some Political / Economical rumors / idea
Weather incidence
General Market Stock Price
PRICE HISTORY
2019 Average prices between 50$ and 65$ (15$ movement)
2018 There was a small Pump but from September with Big Stock Drop also Oil dropped with from 75$ to 44$ (about 30$ lose)
2015 -2017 Average prices between 42$ and 52$ (10$ movement)
2015 Oil dropped from 107$ to 45$ (over 60$ movement within 6 month) (check EXPLANATION / GLOSSARY below)
2011-2014 Average prices between 85$ and 105$ (20$ movement) (Post SubPrime Real Estate Crisis)
1970-1980 Oil price peak from about 3$ (about 10$-15$ today) to 35$ (about 110$ today) (we analyze later why)
IN DEEP...
For your price prediction this news/rumors/idea must be taken in consideration
China and India says they will use SPRs Reserve to avoid Oil price to go Up any Further (reads : if Countries opens SPRs, OIL price drops )
Biden called China for "economical agree" (does it ask to wait to open SPRs reserve? Maybe)
Warehouse Shortage (stock supply, goods etc) where drained of by an hungry "buy everything frenzy" during Lockdown. To keep update with demand it is needed to accelerate production (isn't it quite impossible because of "bottle neck" everywhere??). If OIL price go up over reasonable area no-one will never be able to produce goods.
Biden asked to Opec to rise Oil Production on September. More OIL means drop in Oil Price.
Opec not responded clearly (are they trying to keep price high?)
There are some rumors about a law for a credit of 12500$ for people that will buy USA EV Cars within 10 years ( shift to Renewable Energy means less OIL request, more Oil stock available, price drop )
After 1970/1980 crisis, America know very well what means to not have Oil Reserve and to manage a real high price Oil Supply. If they aren't completely foolish, no one will permit price to rise over a reasonable prices. Too risky.
From September to November Hurricane risk is high. Usually a lot of traders bet for Oil price rise if some production area go down for some weeks.
MY IDEA
This is my idea, not a financial advice.
I believe that Gov will not let OIL price to rise over certain prices. We need to restart economy, to avoid collapse, and a low Oil price will let Industry to regain capacity.
If weather doesn't make damages, oil can stay low.
Industry cannot give another future Up Shot to Stock Market. There are few good to sell this year, expectation for very low gain. When there are drops on Stock Market, also Oil drops (check 2015 and 2018)
China & India (and maybe other countries) will for sure open SPRs, Oil prices will stay low until needed.
OPEC forecast is not so great for this year, so we can expect lower production but also less ask.
Likely price can go down to 60$ or even lower until (maybe) March 2021.
IDEA 1
Prices will stay in 60$-65$
IDEA 2
Price will follow an "likely" Stock Market downtrend Until December (see some historical drop similar to Covid, like 2018 drop)
IDEA 3
Price will drop on longer period until spring, when lower gains or losses will be revealed around a lot of sectors. Also I've insert a probability of prices rise for short period to 77$ (this happen on 2015 and 2018...15-30 days of delay from Stock Drop)
IDEA 4
Price will drop until Late December to 50$ area.
EXPLANATION / GLOSSARY
SPRs : Strategic petroleum reserves, crude oil inventories (or stockpiles) held by the governments of particular countries or private industry, for the purpose of providing economic and national security during an energy crisis. Those were created after 1970-1980 Oil crisis.
1970-1980 OIL CRISIS : Oil prices start to growth when American, Germany and other countries production capacity start to collapse. High demands for Oil Import rise the prices too much (from 3$ to 35$ is like 10$ to 110$ today ... wait... in 2020 prices go from 20$ to 77$...). This Oil supply request arrived at collapse...
2015 Oil dump : After SubPrime Real Estate crisis, Economic world start a run to rise everything to new levels. Ask for every type of goods was high, production same. Oil rise because of very high demand. Trend was so happy that Oil Supply reached the Over Supply. (every sector was saturated by extra good)... and OIL prices suddenly crashed from 107$ to 45$ (no more demand)
That's all folk. Remember this is not a financial advice.
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The FlipThought of this as I saw the further-out Dec'22 & Jun'22 6-months spread flipping through the closer Jun'22 & Dec'21 ; the historical examples are given in the chart in green circles.
Seems like oil is looking higher from here as per the indication of the attached chart.
Let us see how this unravels.
Brent: scenario for sellAnd so, oil is definitely on a strong rise and opening sales can be very, very risky business. But the situation that has developed suggests that the oil can adjust and then may be further go up again. For this scenario, the price needs to dive below the 73.55 level.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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EURUSD: calm before the stormAnd so, there is every likelihood that the instrument would carry on to consolidate in the 1.17530 - 1.18025 zone. However, fixing the price above 1.18025 (which could potentially realized) will strengthen buyers and push the Euro upwards.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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USDCHF: approach to 0.92345And so, further growth of the currency pair will be difficult when approaching the high of July this year (~ 0.92345), where strong resistance is located. In general, the currency demonstrates positive dynamics and technical analysis suggests that buyers do not intend to ease the onslaught.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GBPUSD: at a crossroadsAnd so, the instrument is located between the levels 1.42100 - 1.35690, which, respectively, are the key lines of resistance and support. The medium-term movement of the GBPUSD depends on these levels. At the current stage, there is a suspicion of the formation of a "triangle". Most likely, the price will be within the limits of this (possible) formation. In another variant, it is also probable that the price will break out of these boundaries today and go to the level of 1.40040.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GOLD: tense situationAnd so, gold is making attempts at stubborn resistance at the level of 1794.835 after the price break down. In case of failure, the instrument will have to go down to the level of 1769.045. If gold can strengthen at current levels, the next mark is 1812.325.
For further growth, the instrument needs to be fixed at the level of 1830.495.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments.
USDCAD: launch upAnd so, given the strength of the US dollar at the moment, as well as the fact that oil prices are likely to decline in the near future, the Canadian will weaken. The 1.26320 level is a good starting point upwards. The first expected target is located at the level of 1.27339, then, potentially, nothing should prevent the price from reaching 1.284460.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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EURUSD: do not bury EuroAnd so, the currency pair still cannot overcome the zone 1.18595 -1.19165. This fact does not bury the Euro at all, but forces it to retreat, first to the level of 1.18025, and secondly - to 1.17530.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GOLD: it is too early to celebrate victoryAnd so, all in favor of buyers, but until the level of 1830.495 is overcome, it is too early to celebrate victory. The main support levels are 1812.325 and 1794.835 (where the price can potentially fall). It is expected that the price will be exactly on these levels in the near future.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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EURUSD: between two firesAnd so, the euro has a positive trend, but despite this, you need to keep your attention. Now the price is near the support line, from which there is already a rebound. The price is expected to remain above the 1.18595 level and move higher to test the resistance level (1.19165).
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GOLD: next stop - 1865.695And so, the bullish sentiment remains for GOLD, but in the near future the price range will be the zone 1830.495 - 1812.325 (possibly expanding the range to 1794.835).
The next expected target is 1865.695.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: barrel for 69.95$And so, after another price increase to the SELL-zone (price range ~ 72.80-73.65), the instrument pushed off. The previous rate is maintained, and it is expected (during the next week) that the price would approach at the first support level at 69.95.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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SILVER: it doesn't hurt to try And so, SILVER is definitely in a downtrend, but at the same time, the buyer does not let the sellers relax. The expected price increase between 23.94530 and 24.21240 will give more confidence in a possible breakout from the downtrend channel.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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Brent: OPEC meetingAnd so, OPEC is going to discuss some adjustments in oil production. This was stated by the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan Nurlan Nogayev on Tuesday. Certainly, on such days, the market expects increased volatility. On the chart, the price is in the sell-zone, thus, it is expected that the price will still correct to 69.95 and 67.35.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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GOLD: step by stepAnd so, the hike of GOLD up to the goals continues. By the middle of this week, the price is expected to approach $ 1,830. There may be a pause here, but the prospects for growth do not end, and most likely a price should be expected for the following targets.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
Thanks for the likes and comments