CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Movement Continues 🛢️
Update for WTI Crude Oil.
The price nicely respected the underlined supply zone that we spotted earlier.
We can see how nicely the price reacted to that yesterday.
We may expect a bearish continuation now.
Goal - 78.56
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Brent
Strifor || USDCAD-11/01/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The currency pair has grown significantly in recent times, including within the framework of our previous trading ideas. Now the instrument is more likely to roll back. It is necessary to take into account the upcoming Fed meeting, based on this, a fall below 1.38000.
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TradePlus-Fx|BRENT: intraday idea💬 Description: Today, the instrument is at the level of 87.45 and is most likely to prepare for a fall in the more medium term. But here it is necessary to take into account the geopolitical background, which greatly influences oil. Today, an idea is proposed, the time frames of which are within the day. Namely, long for the purpose of local updating of the maximum. The approximate target is the level of 90 . After which, as was said, the price will most likely rush down again, if there are no sharp geopolitical surges on the world stage.
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: BoC meeting💬 Description: Today, the Central Bank of Canada will announce its decision on interest rates. The rate is expected to remain at the same level. Against this background, we continue to adhere to our previous trading idea for USDCAD , namely to look up (look at the chart) . But most likely, there will be volatility during or after the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada, then the pair is most likely to roll back down. The expected movement is thus depicted on the chart . As a result, the more global target remains the same, and we expect growth to 1.38271 level.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bullish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil formed a double bottom formation after a test
of a solid rising trend line on a daily.
Its neckline was broken this week.
The broken neckline and a trend line compose a contracting demand zone now.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 93.7 level from that.
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Brent OIL in USD until April 2024 + some projections into 2025 Weekly timeframe suggests that BRENT is in its second half accumulation area, which will last until April 2024. Inside the accumulation area OIL will in the range of USD 79-96, bottoming in the mid of December 2023 and topping in the end of February 2024. The last bottom of accumulation phase will happen in the mid of April at the level of around USD 90, but no lower than USD 87.
End of April will mark a major breakout from the accumulation phase starting a new sequence of higher highs, the first is expected around the level of USD 98. Followed by a quick retest of USD 93-96 range ending in the beginning of July 2024.
The long awaited OIL bullrun is likely to start in July 2024 and last until mid September 2025 reaching USD 213 level.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan For Next Week Explained 🛢️
Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a solid support.
85.8 is the resistance of the range.
If the price breaks and closes above that next week,
I would suggest buying the market,
anticipating a bullish continuation at least to 87.6 level.
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Oil Brent - H4\D1Oil Brent
The nearest target is at 96.00 in continuation of the 5th wave on D1
H4 - there was a fixation behind the correctional channel and a 3-wave structure may form, which may indicate continued movement up the trend.
What to expect now?
Expectation of breaking through the level - 89.25, locally the target is 91.40 - 94.88
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 86.47 - 85.66, if this scenario does not materialize.
Long
Targets 89.98 - 91.40 - 92.75 - 94.88 - 96.00
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices dropped over 2% as U.S. crude stockpiles rose, signaling weakened demand. Additionally, concerns about the global economic outlook led to a broader sell-off in equities. Brent crude futures fell by 2.2% to $88.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid by 2.7% to $83.13 a barrel. These price declines were driven by a combination of rising inventories, reduced demand, and economic uncertainties, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and broader market sentiment on oil markets.
The market's attention has been fluctuating between geopolitical factors, including the conflict in the Middle East, and macroeconomic concerns, such as U.S. Treasury yields nearing 5% and the pace of economic growth. These uncertainties are affecting oil demand and prices, making it a volatile and complex market. Additionally, the article touches on issues related to the energy transition, with companies like Shell cutting jobs in its Low Carbon Solutions business, and Siemens Energy seeking government support for its wind-turbine unit.
On a technical side, the daily graph had formed a Three Black Crows pattern 2 days ago, which is a reliable predictor of continuous down movement, technical indicators as MACD and RSI are also in the sell zone.
If this trend continues, the price might reache levels of 79.64, while as a pivot point might be considered 84.34, from where the price might go to 87.82 levels.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Strifor || UKOIL-10/25/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: For oil, the previous trading idea also worked out perfectly and the instrument is now trading at the level of 86.62. Despite the general tense geopolitical background, the instrument is still considered for sell, and the purpose of the sale is gap closing. Presumably, this goal will be achieved within one trading week.
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OIL MIGHT BE GETTING INTO FURTHER SELL-OFFOil prices have continued to decline, marking the third consecutive session of losses. This decline is attributed to a series of sluggish economic data releases from Germany, the eurozone, and Britain, which have raised concerns about energy demand. Brent crude futures dropped by 2%, down $1.76 to $88.07 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 2.2%, down $1.91 to $83.58 per barrel.
The eurozone's business activity data showed an unexpected downturn this month, raising fears of a potential recession in the region. Germany, one of Europe's economic powerhouses, appeared to be slipping into a recession, and Britain reported another monthly decline in economic activity, increasing concerns of a recession ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision. These economic uncertainties, along with other global factors, have contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices.
Despite the economic concerns in Europe, the U.S. recorded an uptick in business output in October, which helped boost the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Additionally, concerns surrounding the situation in the Middle East, where diplomatic efforts are underway to contain the Israel-Hamas conflict, have also impacted oil prices. Overall, the oil market remains on edge, with a focus on potential supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.
If this trend continues, the price might reach levels of 81.53. In the opposite scenario, as a pivot point might be considered 86.38, from where the price might reach levels of 89.32.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Strifor || XAUUSD-10/24/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Gold, which has already made its way down exactly as we described, remains unchanged. At the moment, after a significant part of the buyers have been dumped, the metal will most likely rise again and again update local highs. Gradually gaining a long position will be the most successful solution here.
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: new plan💬 Description: The market is again actively developing a trend towards strengthening metals, the US dollar, and let us also highlight the Swiss franc. All this has to do with safe assets. Accordingly, it is better to take a closer look at purchases using these instruments.
We pay special attention to USDCAD , here sellers cannot realize their potential, and most likely a major player will take out the data of market participants. The general trend towards a strengthening US dollar will only confirm this assumption. In addition, if oil prices begin to correct, this will give a clear impetus to the growth of the currency pair in question. The target for the transaction is located at the level of 1.38271.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Your Trading Plan For Today 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a wide horizontal range on a 4h time frame.
The price is currently testing a support of the range.
To buy the market with a confirmation,
watch a tiny double bottom formation.
If the price breaks and closes above its neckline - 86.26,
a bullish movement will be expected to 86.78 / 87.61
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Best trade of the week? USDCAD or Oil? Will bearish bets on the Canadian dollar grow in the lead up to Wednesday? It is widely expected that the Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold during its meeting that concludes on this day (Although, it may be a hawkish hold as the Governor Tiff Macklem will mention that another hike is still on the table for the bank).
Perhaps piling on the bearish sentiment is the slight fall in the price of oil (one of Canada's major exports), as US diplomatic efforts continue to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas. How long this quietish period can last is up for debate though, and a ground offensive by the IDF in Gaza could send oil prices higher.
Bullish takes on the USD/CAD (i.e., bearish bets on the Loonie) will have 1.37350 to content with, which is the high the pair reached before cratering to 1.36712 to start the week. 1.36936 is the more immediate resistance for bull to cross before even thinking about the day's high. The RSI’s weakness suggests this won’t be too difficult though, and 1.37189 might be the more formidable resistance.
Strifor || XAUUSD-10/20/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The growth goal we set yesterday was achieved. At the moment, gold continues to attract market participants to purchases. However, you should be more careful, now a major player can let them fix their purchases and the metal will face a correction.
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/20/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: Yesterday, oil still showed growth and we were forced to exit with a stop loss. However, the priority of sales remains and today once again we are considering sales from current prices with a target of 90.72 and even with fixation below.
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Top 10 books in tradingAs a trader now of over 23 years, I have read a few hundred trading books in that time. It is always really interesting to have other people's perspective, strategies, hint, tips and tools.
However, the main issue is not knowing if you are likely to get value from the book you purchase as it is also very subjective. You either have issues such as the book is too basic, or the other end of the scale, it's too advanced.
During the 20 plus years, I found a number of great books that helped me - but also ones I have shared with others over the years. Regardless of your level of knowledge how do you know what works or would work for you or your style of trading?
I put this list together in no real order, but I'll try to summarise each with a little about what I liked or what you can take away.
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"The Wall Street Jungle"
Written by Richard Ney, first published in 1970. In this book, Ney provides readers with an insider's perspective on the world of finance and investment. He delves into the complexities and pitfalls of Wall Street, offering a critical examination of the stock market and the investment industry.
Ney, a former Wall Street insider himself, reveals the often deceptive practices and psychological games played by brokers and financial institutions. He discusses the dangers of following investment advice blindly and emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making when it comes to managing one's finances.
Throughout the book, Ney uses real-life examples and anecdotes to illustrate the challenges and temptations that investors face. He also explores the psychological aspects of investing, discussing how emotions can influence financial decisions and lead to costly mistakes.
What I like about this is the emphasis put on the market makers, as a trader who uses Wyckoff Techniques, it made more sense when identifying with Composite Man theory.
"Trading in the Zone"
By Mark Douglas that focuses on the psychology of trading and investing. Published in 2000, the book offers valuable insights into the mental aspects of successful trading. Douglas emphasizes the idea that trading is not just about mastering technical analysis or market fundamentals but also about mastering one's own emotions and mindset.
This book was one of the best in terms of psychology, every trader has a different appetite for risk and even profits, this is a huge factor in trading especially early on. If you struggle with psychology of trading or the emotions, I would 100% recommend this one.
"The Wealth of Nations"
Written by the Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith, first published in 1776. This influential work is considered one of the foundational texts in the field of economics and is often regarded as the birth of modern economics.
In the book Smith explores the principles of a free-market capitalist system and the mechanisms that drive economic prosperity. He famously introduces the concept of the "invisible hand," which suggests that individuals pursuing their self-interest in a competitive market inadvertently contribute to the greater good of society.
For me, the rules of economics have not changed much since the creation of this book. appreciating moves such as DXY up = Gold down, is simple economics. The main take away is again around Wyckoff theory for me and the fact the "invisible hand" is exactly why and how some fail and some profit.
"The Go-Giver"
Although not technically a trading book, it's one of the best little business/life stories.
self-help book co-authored by Bob Burg and John David Mann. Published in 2007, it presents a unique and compelling philosophy on success and achieving one's goals.
The book revolves around the story of a young, ambitious professional named Joe who is seeking success in his career. Through a series of encounters with a mentor named Pindar, Joe learns the "Five Laws of Stratospheric Success." These laws, which are principles of giving, value, influence, authenticity, and receptivity, guide him on a transformative journey toward becoming a true "go-giver."
The way I saw this from a trading perspective is pretty much, the value given by stocks or companies is something Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham investment theory was all about. Although a different type of value - you can understand why instruments such as gold or oil have a place, a value and this can be deemed as expensive or fair at any given point. These waves are what really moves the market.
"The Zurich Axioms"
A book written by Max Gunther, originally published in 1985. This book offers a set of investment and risk management principles derived from the wisdom and practices of Swiss bankers in Zurich. The Zurich Axioms provide a unique and unconventional approach to investing and wealth management.
The book presents a series of investment "axioms," or guidelines, that challenge conventional wisdom in the world of finance. These axioms emphasize risk management, flexibility, and the willingness to take calculated risks. They encourage investors to think independently and avoid the herd mentality often associated with financial markets.
For me it's more about investing and less about trading. But the deep down message is all to do with ultimately wealth preservation, I have been in the wealth management and investment space and found it interesting that the more an investor has, the less about making money it becomes and more about safe guarding that capital it gets.
"Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side"
Written by Howard Marks, a renowned investor and co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management. Published in 2018, the book delves into the critical concept of market cycles and provides insights on how investors can navigate them to enhance their investment strategies.
In the book, Marks emphasizes the cyclical nature of financial markets and discusses the inevitability of market fluctuations. He explores the factors and indicators that drive market cycles, such as economic data, investor sentiment, and market psychology. Marks' central thesis is that investors can improve their chances of success by understanding where they are in the market cycle and adjusting their investment decisions accordingly.
I had a spooky delve into market cycles, I have a good friend who told me he did not trade price, instead time. This was something I could not really figure out, but was so fascinating that the markets can work in cycles. It was interesting that Larry Williams also discussed a similar thing with the Orange Juice market's in one of his books.
"How I Made One Million Dollars Last Year Trading Commodities"
And here is Larry Williams' book. provides an insider's perspective on his successful journey as a commodities trader. In this book, Williams shares his personal experiences, strategies, and insights into the world of commodity trading. He outlines the specific techniques and tactics he used to achieve remarkable profits in a single year. While the book may not offer a guaranteed formula for success, it offers valuable lessons on risk management, market analysis, and the psychology of trading. It serves as both an inspiration for aspiring traders and a guide for those looking to improve their trading skills in the volatile world of commodities.
For me, the COT intel is invaluable. When you learn what drives markets really, COT is such a useful tool to have at your disposal.
"Nature's Law: The Secret of the Universe"
A groundbreaking book by Ralph Nelson Elliott, the creator of the Elliott Wave Theory. Published in the early 20th century, this influential work introduced a novel perspective on market analysis and price prediction. Elliott's theory posits that financial markets and other natural phenomena follow a repetitive, fractal pattern that can be analyzed through wave patterns. He outlines the concept of impulsive and corrective waves and demonstrates how these waves form trends in various financial markets.
The book delves into the idea that the market's movements are not entirely random but instead exhibit an underlying order, governed by these wave patterns. Elliott's ideas have had a profound impact on technical analysis and have been adopted by traders and analysts worldwide. "Nature's Law" serves as the foundation of the Elliott Wave Theory, offering valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding and predicting financial markets based on natural patterns and mathematical principles.
If you want to learn about Elliott Waves - here it is from the horse's mouth as they say.
"Master the art of Trading"
By Lewis Daniels - Master the Art of Trading trader, offers a quick, easy, and comprehensive roadmap to trading. It explores the grand theories and behavioural economics underpinning the markets, from Elliot Wave Theory to Composite Man. It unpicks visual data, such as candlestick graphs and trend lines. It equips readers with the correct tools to make sense of the data and to make better trades. And it helps readers uncover their innate strengths, realise their propensity for risk, and discover what sort of trader they are - on order to optimise their behaviour to make them as effective as possible.
This book puts together all of the core trading requirements from the basic trendline through to psychology and technical techniques.
"The Intelligent Investor"
a classic and highly influential book on the subject of value investing, written by Benjamin Graham and first published in 1949. Graham, a renowned economist and investor, is often considered the "father of value investing."
The book offers a comprehensive guide to the principles and strategies of sound, long-term investing. Graham's central concept is the distinction between two types of investors: the defensive, "intelligent" investor and the speculative investor. He emphasizes the importance of conducting in-depth analysis and due diligence to make informed investment decisions, rather than engaging in market speculation.
I don't think any list of trading books is complete without this one! It's the Warren Buffer Holy Grail. For me, it's about risk management, finding value - especially with investments like value stocks. Using compounding interest and the factor of time to your advantage.
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I would be keen to get comments and other book recommendations from the trading community here on Tradingview.
Strifor || XAUUSD-10/19/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: As for gold, everything remains valid. Priority shopping continues. There is a possibility that the metal will go flat against the background of the expected strengthening of the US dollar, after which it will continue to update local highs.
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Strifor || UKOIL-10/19/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: After the rally in oil, prices are most likely ready for a correction. The downward correction is expected to continue. Positions are considered from current prices with a view to approaching level 88. Presumably, after which there will be a pause and a likely continuation of the fall.
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