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Brent

Strifor || USDCAD-07/13/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: When approaching the support level of 1.31385, the currency pair immediately received a signal from buyers and rebounded. However, most likely this is a partial fixation of sellers whose ambitions locate below this support. By the end of this week, it is expected that the instrument will drop below this level. Before the weekend, the currency pair is likely to begin to recover slightly. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared. This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation. It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL. Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe. I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable. Just look how big the discount is on the monthly: One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April. Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs. Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM. All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot. The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down. It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8. What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry. One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy. I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low. We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like: Equities correct USD up Energy up Metals up 10Y yield up VIX up Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans. The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market. Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back. A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances. In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap. How hot will July, August, and September be in North America? Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive. Are you really expecting $1.50?
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by LordWrymouth
25
WTI UpdateThe price appears to bounce back as expected, with OPEC+ output curbs finally biting. Russia announced a voluntary decrease of 500 kbd that will remain through the end of August. The technical context entails an acceleration in wave [ 3] of iii. Most ElliottWave traders aim for a third of the third when the price moves a considerable distance with no noticeable pullback. I don't have any alternative options now, but given how difficult it was to pick the bottom, I won't celebrate until the end of the move. The larger picture stays unchanged. Either a triangle as wave Y of (X) that will last until the end of 2023 or a more sharp rally as wave C of (X) (black labels). I'll reiterate that waves wxy of (b) and [ w] [ x] [ y] of wave ii are a little complex, which is typically a bad sign. However, I'm struggling to come up with an immediate bearish scenario.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle. However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse. The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators. This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar. So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF: SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs. Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history. So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down. So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world. Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s. Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then. A few recent pieces of news came out. One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not. Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts. The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex. NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order. It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus. The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This means Washington is covering its shorts. Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right. 6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold. However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained. I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies. So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers. However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long. The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95. And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September. The problem with short on oil is on the monthly: COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments. If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower. A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore. So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower? That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods. Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly: Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year? Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95. People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95. But why not get bullish at $70? Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market? If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX? With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue? It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
10
Results of the OPEC+ MeetingThe OPEC+ meeting was held this week. CNBC reports the words of its head, Haitham al-Ghais, here’s a brief summary: → the organization (which currently consists of 13 countries) is looking for new members; → the macroeconomic situation is unclear due to the banking crisis, high inflation, the possibility of a recession and new outbreaks of COVID; → nevertheless, the organization is positive about the demand for oil in the second half of 2023. Judging by the fact that no sharp statements were made, OPEC members are satisfied with the current situation. The oil price chart shows that the level of 72.25 in June confirmed its support for the market. It may be based on the decisions of OPEC to reduce production volumes when prices fall to these levels. It can be stated that the market has been in the consolidation stage for 2 months already. But with strong support from OPEC, the bulls may try to break through the current resistance level (1). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
UKOIL(BRENT)-07/05/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The long idea for oil has been working out very well and after completing the planned path earlier, the level of 77.39 opens for the buyer. A rather difficult obstacle for the buyer, because if not for it, then the price could rise above 78 from the current ones on the impulse. Therefore, in the near future, an approach to 77.39 is expected, then consolidation (most likely) and after a rise above 78. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Strifor
3
USDJPY-07/04/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Today, the USDJPY currency pair has the greatest chance of turning down over the past 2–3 months. The potential and most confident short entry point is now located at the level of ~143.8. When closing below this level, the instrument is very likely to roll down to 142.204 and 141.327. However, it is unlikely that the instrument will fall like this right away, maybe the same re-test to ~143.8, after which the movement will resume towards the specified targets. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
2
USDCAD-07/03/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Despite the fact on Friday the downward impulse after breaking out the lower border of the balance did not take place, the priority of sell remains. However, the action plan has been slightly changed. The most potential sell should be considered at the upper border of the current balance, most likely in the format of a false breakout. An alternative scenario, also sell, can be considered at the lower border of the same balance, that is, in the format of a breakdown of the level of 1.32399. The target is still the same at the level of 1.31385. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
Brent to stall at trend of lower highs?Brent - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Trend line resistance is located at 76.60. 50 1day EMA is at 76.35. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look to Sell at 76.39 (stop at 77.39) Our profit targets will be 73.89 and 73.39 Resistance: 75.90 / 76.40 / 77.34 Support: 75.20 / 74.80 / 74.40 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by OANDA
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to buy dips. The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns. We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13) Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13 Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00 Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by OANDA