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Brent

WTI UpdateThe price appears to bounce back as expected, with OPEC+ output curbs finally biting. Russia announced a voluntary decrease of 500 kbd that will remain through the end of August. The technical context entails an acceleration in wave [ 3] of iii. Most ElliottWave traders aim for a third of the third when the price moves a considerable distance with no noticeable pullback. I don't have any alternative options now, but given how difficult it was to pick the bottom, I won't celebrate until the end of the move. The larger picture stays unchanged. Either a triangle as wave Y of (X) that will last until the end of 2023 or a more sharp rally as wave C of (X) (black labels). I'll reiterate that waves wxy of (b) and [ w] [ x] [ y] of wave ii are a little complex, which is typically a bad sign. However, I'm struggling to come up with an immediate bearish scenario.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
Crude Oil - Bearish On Oil? Saudis Made The US Cover Its Short.I've had a number of successful calls on crude oil, which you can find in my post history. In those calls, I had always been bearish on oil, anticipating a run to a 4-handle. However, I reassessed my prior assumptions when the MMs took out the Low Of The Year in quick order to start May. I haven't been particularly sure in the time that has passed, but between price action and some recent news, I now believe oil is set to reverse. The situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party is very tense. The pandemic has taken a huge toll on the country, which the Party is not reporting to the world, and you can tell this if you look at their obviously bogus COVID death and infection stats published on major data aggregators. This matters because since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, there's become something of an alliance between the Saudis, Russia, China, and India, with many oil transactions no longer settling in the U.S. Petrodollar. So you have to be really careful trading right now with the geopolitical situation at hand. Everyone has flipped bullish on equities and is expecting a new parabolic run, but the situation is just as prime for a sharp and dramatic turnaround, which I reference in my recent call on the SPY ETF: SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears When it comes to China, Xi has the looming threat of having inherited Jiang Zemin and the CCP's persecution of Falun Gong, which targeted 100 million people and has even harvested their organs. Xi and the CCP also face the growing trend of the movement to return to China's traditional 5,000 year culture, which is the crown jewel, the magnum opus, of the whole world and all of human history. So the most important country in the world is very unstable, and you aren't hearing anything about what is going on. But the controllers know something is wrong and are scurrying about frantically, thinking about how they can take your stuff on the way down. So, my bearishness on oil has been based on the fact that the Biden Administration has drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, significant because although OPEC+ is a huge producer of oil, the US and its vassals, such as Canada, by far produce the most oil in the world. Washington selling the SPR is a short on the market by definition and they unloaded hard in the 90s and 80s, saying they wanted to buy back in the 60s. Yet the two times we've had oil in the 60s, they haven't rebought. I believe they intended to drive the market lower for longer and rebuy then. A few recent pieces of news came out. One is OPEC had a scheduled meeting in Vienna in early June, which they held in person, despite the next major meeting being in July. During that meeting, Reuters, WSJ, and Bloomberg found themselves disinvited, while every other media did not. Moreover, on Friday The Washington Post stated that Saudi King MBS warned the Biden Administration it would inflict economic pain when the US complained about production cuts. The Saudis have teeth because they own Aramco, which is also stationed in the United States, and the Saudis buy arms from the military industrial complex. NATO and the US needs to have the Saudis not wanting to get rid of them if they are to have any chance of deposing Putin and taking Russia for the New World Order. It's been well known that OPEC+, of which the Saudis are the biggest producer by far, want higher prices and need $80-100 to continue to run a national surplus. The second biggest news is a June 9 announcement from the Department of Energy stating the US will replenish 6 million barrels of oil from the SPR. This means Washington is covering its shorts. Now, you'll complain, fairly so, that the Democratic Socialists of America have sold some 280 million barrels of oil from the SPR since Biden was inaugurated in 2021, and you're right. 6 million barrels is certainly a drop compared to what they've sold. However, a look at the EIA website puts the 6 million barrel figure into perspective: since November of '22, only 20 million barrels have been drained. I will repeat myself again: the market maker is covering its shorts and that means it's very immediately dangerous to be short on oil and oil companies. So, this is hard to go long on because the delta between $70 and the $63 low is 10%, and on futures at $1,000 PnL per $1 move per lot, that's a lot of "Ouching" as Abdulaziz has said for early comers. However, generally speaking a bottom is a bottom and that means there won't be a new low. Either way, it's up to you to figure out where to go long and when to go long and if you want to go long. The most immediate target, even in an ultimately bearish continuation scenario, is $85, and more specifically, $95. And you may very well see a 9 handle as early as August or September. The problem with short on oil is on the monthly: COVID hysteria was an ultimate bottom. If -$40 wasn't an ultimate bottom then you call your mom and ask her what an ultimate bottom could be and let us know in the comments. If you've got an ultimate bottom and no real highs were taken, the the market is aiming higher, and not lower. A breakdown of price here means that oil as an industry is not going to recover, but yet green energy is a fallacy and alternative energy sources are nowhere to be found, while worldwide crude supply is actually not particularly abundant anymore. So what fundamental story is supposed to be used to drive oil lower? A bunch of talking heads on Twitter complaining that oil is going lower? That doesn't move markets. Producers have to deposit actual oil to go bigly short because contracts settle in physical goods. Moreover, the price action in March before the big move down in May was really, really peculiar. You see it more clearly on the weekly: Like, $2 away from a breakaway gap is where it chose to dump and actually set a new low of the year? Really, to me, this says that since we haven't dumped anymore and now we're getting fundamentally extremely, extremely bullish news, that the target can only be $95. People, for whatever reason, tend to like to buy above highs and so they'll get bullish at $85 and $95. But why not get bullish at $70? Warren Buffet keeps buying OXY. Is he doing this because oil is on the verge of another 5 year bear market? If oil is going to pump, what does this mean for equities? What does it mean for the VIX? With what's going on in the world, what does it mean for the future? How long will the happy continue? It's really worth giving some sober thought to, and it's really worth cutting the furus and the propaganda outlets out of your information cycle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LordWrymouth
10
Results of the OPEC+ MeetingThe OPEC+ meeting was held this week. CNBC reports the words of its head, Haitham al-Ghais, here’s a brief summary: → the organization (which currently consists of 13 countries) is looking for new members; → the macroeconomic situation is unclear due to the banking crisis, high inflation, the possibility of a recession and new outbreaks of COVID; → nevertheless, the organization is positive about the demand for oil in the second half of 2023. Judging by the fact that no sharp statements were made, OPEC members are satisfied with the current situation. The oil price chart shows that the level of 72.25 in June confirmed its support for the market. It may be based on the decisions of OPEC to reduce production volumes when prices fall to these levels. It can be stated that the market has been in the consolidation stage for 2 months already. But with strong support from OPEC, the bulls may try to break through the current resistance level (1). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XBRUSD
by FXOpen
UKOIL(BRENT)-07/05/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The long idea for oil has been working out very well and after completing the planned path earlier, the level of 77.39 opens for the buyer. A rather difficult obstacle for the buyer, because if not for it, then the price could rise above 78 from the current ones on the impulse. Therefore, in the near future, an approach to 77.39 is expected, then consolidation (most likely) and after a rise above 78. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Strifor
3
USDJPY-07/04/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Today, the USDJPY currency pair has the greatest chance of turning down over the past 2–3 months. The potential and most confident short entry point is now located at the level of ~143.8. When closing below this level, the instrument is very likely to roll down to 142.204 and 141.327. However, it is unlikely that the instrument will fall like this right away, maybe the same re-test to ~143.8, after which the movement will resume towards the specified targets. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
2
USDCAD-07/03/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: Despite the fact on Friday the downward impulse after breaking out the lower border of the balance did not take place, the priority of sell remains. However, the action plan has been slightly changed. The most potential sell should be considered at the upper border of the current balance, most likely in the format of a false breakout. An alternative scenario, also sell, can be considered at the lower border of the same balance, that is, in the format of a breakdown of the level of 1.32399. The target is still the same at the level of 1.31385. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3
Brent to stall at trend of lower highs?Brent - 24h expiry Daily signals are bearish. Trend line resistance is located at 76.60. 50 1day EMA is at 76.35. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look to Sell at 76.39 (stop at 77.39) Our profit targets will be 73.89 and 73.39 Resistance: 75.90 / 76.40 / 77.34 Support: 75.20 / 74.80 / 74.40 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by OANDA
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to buy dips. The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns. We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13) Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13 Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00 Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by OANDA
ukoil 1 hour chart distribution tp 65 usd / bbl🔸Today let's review the 1 hour chart for brent oil . Previously strong downtrend in progress entire 2023 so outlook remains bearish until we can daily close above 80 usd. 🔸OPEC production cuts have low impact on prices recently due to lower global demand. Technically, we are in a distribution pattern setup since May 2023 and expecting breakdown and new/fresh lows soon for Brent. 🔸Recommended strategy for crude oil traders: short-sell near market / short-sell rips and rallies, limited upside and final TP bears is 65 USD. once we get a valid breakdown of the structure expecting losses to accelerate in this market. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
18
WTI REMAINS STABLEOil prices remained stable on Monday amid volatile trading as investors weighed global demand concerns against political instability in Russia, which could worsen supply disruptions. Brent crude futures rose slightly to $73.88 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures fell to $69.08 a barrel. The withdrawal of Russian mercenaries in averted clash raised questions about President Putin's grip on power and potential oil supply disruption. Russian turmoil presents a risk to supply shortages, coupled with Saudi Arabia's output cut, declining U.S. production, and the end of U.S. strategic reserve releases. Last week, both Brent and WTI prices dropped by 3.6% on worries of higher U.S. interest rates and China's underwhelming economic recovery. Both RSI and MACD remain indecisive regarding the future movement of the instrument. As a support level can be considered prices of 69.61 and 69.25 further down the line. As a pivot point may be considered the price of 69.83, from where the instrument might try to reach a target of 70.18 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by legacyFXofficial
#WTI Update #OOTT #USOIL #Brent I continue to expect a sharp, short-lived rally in the near term, despite the recent drops in oil prices making me feel uncertain. The weakest point of my charts is - waves wxy of (b) and [w ] [x ] [y ] of ii are too complex. Nevertheless, it is my best scenario for now. If the price exceeds $83.4 or wave high I provide a couple of alternatives in my Weekly Newsletter. I see no bearish scenarios that allow keeping the previous labelling (which I have comfort with). Therefore, I will refrain from further chart manipulation. I will consider immediate bearish scenarios only if price breaks lower and I have to stop loss my trades.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka
5
UKOIL(BRENT)-06/19/2023Preferred direction: BUY Comment: Closing the price above the local resistance 76.30 creates a potential movement for buyers towards 77.39. This will be another major buying hurdle as it is medium term resistance. Given the context of the price movement towards this resistance, there is a very high probability of a breakout to the upside. Perhaps this will not be the biggest upward impulse, however, the approach to the round value of 80 will most likely be provided. Thank you for like and share your views!
TVC:UKOILLong
by Strifor
3
#OIL #OOTT UpdateI think I just decoded the oil chart. I have been contemplating a rise to $90+ because I expected ABC flat where I now see WXY combination of zigzag, zigzag and triangle. The chart now perfectly aligns with Brent where wave [ B] did make lowest low presumably shaping a symmetrical triangle whereas WTI is working on a running triangle. That means that we have only strong push left upwards from current low which should come either as a straight impulse or an expanding diagonal which will be extremely annoying.
TVC:USOIL
by Fomenka