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Brent

Crude could fall even lower without OPEC intervention • Oil prices remain under pressure despite receding banking fears • Major technical breakdown suggests more losses could be on the way • Will the OPEC come to the rescue? After falling by 8% at one point, crude oil prices managed to bounce back from their worst levels on Wednesday along with everything else. The rebound came on the back of news the Swiss National Bank offered a $54 billion lifeline to Credit Suisse. The move has helped calm fears of a financial crisis in Europe. But there wasn’t much immediate follow-through in the markets this morning ahead of the European Central Bank decision. Crude oil also turned lower. Risks, therefore, continue to remain to the downside for oil prices. Oil prices have been weighed down by at least three major factors in recent days: 1) general risk-off sentiment, 2) weaker demand projections for oil and 3) technical selling. Given that prices had been stuck inside a corridor for a long time – since early December to be exact – a major move was going to follow. The fact that we have now had a bearish fundamental trigger – a sharp rise in financial stability risks – to move prices outside of their ranges to the downside, meant that technical traders have also helped to add pressure on prices by selling oil futures short to take advantage of the momentum. The three-month consolidation has been resolved by prices moving and closing below the support level of the sideways channel. This should keep the “sell-the-rallies” trade intact until something changes fundamentally. The impact of very high levels of inflation over the past couple of years has been hurting consumption, while the significant interest rate tightening by central banks have further reduced consumer and business buying power. Indeed, the International Energy Agency is forecasting that global oil supply will “comfortably” exceed demand in the first half of this year. The IEA reported that commercial oil stocks in developed OECD countries hit an 18-month high. Oil prices also remain weighed down by higher-than-expected inventories. The EIA, meanwhile, posted a 1.6-million-barrel rise in US crude stockpiles last week, which was more than forecast. So, all this begs the question: will the OPEC step in to save oil prices again by cutting its production? The balls in their court now, but for now, thanks to the big breakdown, the path of least resistance is clearly to the downside for oil. Granted, we might see an oversold bounce in prices soon. But until something changes fundamentally to create a higher high for oil, we would continue to favour selling into resistance than fading the dips. For Brent, the next potential downside target could be $70.00. Stop-loss orders of many bullish traders would now be resting below Wednesday’s low at $71.36. If they get tripped, which we think is likely, the next stop could well be that $70.00 mark. That’s not to say oil cannot go much lower than that. But that’s our main downside target in the short-term outlook. On the upside, key resistance is seen between 75.00 to 76.60, an area which was previously support. Bullish traders will want to see oil go back above this area to regain control again. -- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
FOREXCOM:UKOILShort
by FOREXcom
ukoil 8h chart broke down 15% correction warningUKOIL 8hour chart review/outlook. Broke key s/r recently so expecting weakness next 4-8 weeks. Previously compression intro triangle pattern and sequence of higher lows was invalidated recently with break of 83.50 USD. sequence of higher lows at 76.50 and 79.85, but broke down with recent sell side pressure mounting due to US banking crisis. Based on measured move price projection bears will target 69.50 USD, so this is a 15% correction off the base of the triangle patter setup. Recommended strategy: short sell rips/rallies and exit final TP at 69.50 on sell side. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ProjectSyndicate
20
Continue to go long on crude oil. Due to positive data, the oil price continues to rise. Our long position took profit at 76.3. Currently, it seems that there is still momentum for oil to continue its upward trend, with the MACD indicator showing a second bullish crossover on the 2-hour chart. Resistance is near 78.5, so I believe we can continue to enter long positions with a trading strategy of entering around 76.3-75.8 and setting a profit target in the 78-79 range. If the oil price can break through the 79 level, the next target is around 80.8. TVC:USOIL MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
TVC:USOILLong
by Ice_and_Fire1
Crude Oil Stuck In A Range, Forming Contracting Triangle!Crude oil price has been moving between 70 & 83 since Nov. 2022. In the process forming contracting (or symmetrical) triangle. A strong bullish close above the upper descending line will make crude oil price to be bullish while a close below the lower descending line will invite more bears for oil. With price hovering currently on strong support level, oil most likely will break above the symmetrical upper line... N.B! - USOIL price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #usoil #crudeoil #wti #brentoil
TVC:USOIL
by BullBearMkt
Going long on crude oil. The crude oil is currently trading around 74.8, with some support visible on the 4-hour chart. In the short term, there is upward momentum observed on the 1-hour chart. As a trading strategy, one can go long near 74.8 and target 76.3, with the possibility of further upside if the resistance at 76.3 is breached. If unable to break through, a short position can be considered at 76.3. I will keep you updated in due course. Short-term trading strategy: Go long near 74.8 with a target of 76.3. MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
TVC:USOILLong
by Ice_and_Fire1
3
Going short on crude oil at 77.8. At the start of the Asian market on Thursday, crude oil is currently trading around $76.5 per barrel. On Wednesday, crude oil continued to fall as concerns about more aggressive interest rate hikes weighed on economic growth and oil demand, outweighing the larger-than-expected reduction in US inventories. Although yesterday's decrease in crude oil inventories did not cause significant fluctuations in the price and quickly recovered, it shows that the overall trend of crude oil is weak. My trading strategy remains short, with a focus on selling high. My trading strategy is to short crude oil at $77.8, with a stop loss at $78.6 and a target of around $75. Investors can choose their own profit-taking points according to their trading style. The above is only a short-term trading perspective. I will notify you promptly if there are suitable opportunities. Liking, commenting, and subscribing are the best encouragement for me. Follow me to make trading simpler! You are also welcome to read my other ideas below. MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
TVC:USOILShort
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
Waiting for a rebound to go short. In the early Asian session, US oil traded near $77.20 per barrel. On Tuesday, crude oil plummeted more than 4%, affected by Chairman Powell's speech exacerbating concerns about interest rate hikes and a stronger dollar. Powell stated to lawmakers on Tuesday that the Fed may need to raise interest rates more than expected to respond to strong recent data, which led to a downturn in most financial markets. Today, shorting is favored in crude oil. Strategy suggestion: Sell crude oil near $78.3-$78.5 with a stop loss at $79.2 and a target near $76. I will also give an alert once it reaches the target. Follow me to make trading simpler. TVC:USOIL FXOPEN:XAUUSD
TVC:USOILShort
by Ice_and_Fire1
1
#Brent crude - an important inflection areaThis analysis is done on a monthly chart so this could still consolidate and take some time to play out but just a few interesting points to note: (1) the 200 month moving average (green line) has acted as a support and resistance level for the price of brent crude for the last decade and a bit (looks to be supporting price action currently) (2) the 61.8 fib from the extreme April '20 lows and March '22 highs come in at around $77.60 where the market recently bounced from (3) resistance monthly highs in October '18 and October '21 seem to be now acting as support (change of polarity). (4) RSI 50 level holding on the RSI (5) Price candle action (wicks) on the monthly chart over the last quarter shows that the bulls are ready to buy into any weakness during the month (6) Not shown on the chart but if you look at the daily chart we are forming a flat top triangle which usually breaks to the upside which also has a target at roughly $100 Given the significance of this consolidation zone between 77 and 84 leads to a high probability that OIL will once again move higher after this consolidation phase is complete. Thus on a medium term view I would use any weakness in Brent crude to accumulate a position for higher levels with a medium target around the $100 mark If you look at seasonality data for Crude oil futures in the past, you can see it enjoys a favourable period from the end of February to around end of September. www.equityclock.com
FX_IDC:USDBROLong
by MarcoOlevano