Crude Oil (WTI) Bearish Outlook For Next Week 🛢️
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil broke and closed below a support line of a bearish flag pattern this week.
The price is retesting its lower boundary now.
I believe that the market will most likely drop next week.
Goal for sellers - 85.75 structure.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Brent
Oil move pending China's directionBrent Crude Oil price is expected to consolidate between 93 to 100, with the main catalyst being China's Covid Policy.
There were on-and-off hopes of China's reopening.
However, we are still very much on the fence given the continued strict Covid measures in China.
On the other hand, China did announce an easing of the measures, reducing the quarantine time. Another positive news is that the NHC is planning to accelerate vaccinations, which is crucial before further easing on their zero COVID policy.
We don't know how long that will take, or when it will be in effect.
Buys on support above 93 and sells on resistance at 100, until we have a clear path on China's reopening. Overall, looking more for buys given the pretty much firm demand in oil. Keep an eye out for OPEC oil report on Monday, 14 Nov 2022.
Brent: Watch it burnWe're currently observing a downwards trend that should turn once the blue wave is completed. Thereupon, Brent should move above the $105.42 resistance into the turquoise target zone between $104.29 - $116.05. After hitting the target zone, Brent should turn and drop below the support at $83.61 directly into the green target zone between $77.10 - $42.16. After crossing the green zone, the green wave should be completed and turn out of the green zone to move above the $83.61 support. Since the anticipated downslope is surely not going to evolve as a straight line, we'll sketch the in-between-movements as the course comes down from the top.
US OIL TRADING IDEAAs its clear from chart,
us oil has broken the blue down trend / bull flag and got a nice push up side,
As dollar index is in corrective mode and we can see some more pullback in dollar index,
We are looking oil as a long opportunity, any pullback around 90.70 -90.80, will be a long opportunity targeting 97.50 -97.80.
The idea will be considered as invalidated if it get backs inside to broken bull flag.
Brent could trade higher only if...Energy prices climbed on Friday as Brent reached the 92.60 price level and WTI climbed a high of 98.75. This move higher was due to the weakness of the DXY and the anticipation that China was ready to reopen borders, spurring demand for oil.
However, as China reiterates its intention to maintain its current Covid policy, both Brent and WTI are retracing lower from last week’s climb higher. Look for the completion of the retracement before a continuation of the uptrend.
The prices could test the key resistance level of 97.00 for WTI and 102.00 for Brent, if prices clear above the immediate resistance of 94.00 and 100 respectively.
Weekly Oil Report: More Bullishness by New IEA ReportsOctober, as expected, brought oil growth after 4 months of fall. November also opened with positive sentiments. During its first week, crude oil grew by 4.71 %.
The volume and MACD are showing slight weakness in bulls. We might see oil moving a bit more slowly during the week.
With the supply issues at the moment, oil can stay in the channel of 90
Weekly Oil Report: More Bullishness by New IEA ReportsOctober, as expected, brought oil growth after 4 months of fall. November also opened with positive sentiments. During its first week, crude oil grew by 4.71 %.
The volume and MACD are showing slight weakness in bulls. We might see oil moving a bit more slowly during the week.
With supply issues at the moment, we can expect that the price stays in 90 channel for the week.
Economic Turmoil and Political Tensions Evoking Crude OilThe candlestick pattern at the lowest low is very probable to be the pivot point for the downward consolidation of oil. October also can be closed by a green candle after 4 months of drop. The political and economic conditions are making the pivot more valid at the moment.
BCO technical analysis. (position accumulation)Will add on position at 94.000/94.2, with risk of .5%-1% from overall position.
Key local resistance level has been broken. Therefore, now it is our support.
We need to see level of 94 hold up with possible fake breakout and continuation to the moon side. ✈️🌒
Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year.
One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market.
The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs.
U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA.
The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage.
In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap.
Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels.
A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
XAUUSD : IMPORTANT TA , READ the CaptionGOLD UPDATE : Still on the gold chart, I specified my opinion is still Bearish and its possible targets marked on the chart! Please note that today, as it is the first day of week, the market does not follow a particular trend, but the important levels mentioned in the current and previous analysis are valid!
Previous Analysis : By examining gold in the 4-hour time frame, you can see that the price finally managed to hit all its important upward targets (Final Result is +520 Pips ✅) , and by collecting liquidity above $1668, it faced heavy selling pressure and corrected to $1644! According to the price trend, I expect further correction, and according to the analysis of the previous week, the price may soon move towards the liquidity pool of SELL STOPS below the price of $1615, if this happens after collecting liquidity below this level. We will probably face a temporary price pump, the range of this liquidity pool is from $1615 to $1606! The new Bullish Order Block is in the range of $1617.5 to $1627.5!
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 10.24.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Uncertainty by Mixed Signals Hit Traders AgainOn the weekly chart of WTI, uncertainty is clear in the last candle. Buyers and sellers were both indecisive.
On the daily chart, the MACD indicator seems to be crossing and changing the phase. Oil might open lower on Monday but it is possible to see volatilities throughout the week.
The recession is nearly the strongest bearish factor holding oil prices down. The dollar index is increasing and it brings more fear to the markets.
IMPORTANT TA of $GOLD : READ THE CAPTIONWell, as you can see, today the price penetrated more to its Bullish Order Block and managed to grow by 230 pips from $1617 to $1640! If the price continues to grow, the important ranges for supply are $1645 and $1656 respectively! Another important possibility is that the price may soon (maybe next week) move towards the liquidity pool of SELL STOPS below the price of $1615, If this happens, after collecting liquidity below this level, we will probably face a temporary price pump, the range of this liquidity pool is from $1615 to $1606!
✅ Result so far : +260 Pips ✅
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 10.21.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
XAUUSD (GOLD) Multi Time Frame analysisWell, as you can see, the price managed to increase up to about $1680 yesterday, exactly from the range of $1660 that was mentioned, that is, nearly 200 pips of growth! Again, from the same range of $1680, the price faced selling pressure and fell again to $1660! The price again reacted positively to this level and is currently trading with 50 pips of growth in the range of 1665! Now we have to see if this level of support and demand zone can cause the price to grow again or not! one of the important supply zones is in the range of $1676 to $1680!
Follow me for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, I'm here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 09.20.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️