What does OIL (BRENT PETROL) mean for the world economy?#BRENT Oil (Petrol) 1W chart;
What does oil mean for the world economy?
Oil is critical to the world economy and is considered the basic energy source of modern industrial societies.
And then there are the quarterbacks. Market makers, a term we hear a lot in the crypto space. These and similar important charts cannot be moved by ordinary people. They cannot afford it. Only the most important countries in the world can do it.
So what usually happens when these charts come to trend breaks?
While situations such as war, geopolitical tensions, chaos, finding a vaccine for an existing virus move the chart upwards,
Situations such as viruses, recessions, economic depressions also move the chart downwards.
Significant chart movements are only possible with these and similar news. Conscious or unconscious. If you think there is anything unconscious in the world, I can't say anything about it.
The trend line in the middle is important.
I have indicated the details of the important breaks and critical intersections on the chart.
But there is one place I would like to draw your attention.
Russia-Ukraine war;
The chart is rising sharply with pre-decline gapped openings and momentum candles.
What happens in the world in such a situation?
Energy, industrial production costs, important basic services such as electricity, heating, transportation, raw material prices would increase.
Global economic slowdowns.
Geopolitical tensions increase.
In short, inflation would be fueled.
Just like the economic crisis that would be caused by a sharp fall in the oil prices of the countries that depend on oil for their economies.
Then energy companies cannot make a profit. Labor prices would fall, companies would go bankrupt, unemployment would rise.
In short...
Inflation was deliberately and willfully fueled. Because it was time to start raising interest rates.
The world was not ready for that yet.
With the war, the chart went up 40% in 2 weeks.
I am not talking about any coin in crypto, I am talking about the oil chart increasing 40% in such a short time.
You all know the scenario afterwards.
The top of the chart is where the red needle is. March 2022.
The Fed has officially started the cycle of rate hikes with 25 basis points.
Brent
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Support & Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important support & resistance levels to watch and trade on WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 78.5 - 78.8 area
Resistance 2: 80.2 - 80.5 area
Resistance 3: 82.8 - 83.7 area
Resistance 4: 84.0 - 84.5 area
Support 1: 74.6 - 75.2 area
Support 2: 72.4 - 72.8 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Brent Crude Oil #Brent Crude Oil - H1 Analysis
📣 Based on the 1-hour chart structure, a break above the descending trendline at 80.07 could be a buying opportunity with a target of 82.00.
⛔️ Stop Loss: 79.00
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 79.00 level, a decline towards 77.80 could be anticipated.
⛔️ Stop Loss: 80.07
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
The price of B1 may begin to form a rebound from the border of the triangle, which may indicate the beginning of growth, globally to the update levels of the upper border, if we consider the level from which the price gave a rebound, we can reach 85.935. If we consider H4, we can wait for the formation of a 3-wave structure to continue the upward movement. To cancel, it is better to consider fixing it outside the border or breaking it, since the fall may continue.
Target 81.76 - 85.935
CRUDE OIL WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL is trading in a
Downtrend and the price
Broke the key horizontal
Level of 76.50$ which is now
A resistance and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish continuation
SHORT🔥
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Brent Crude Oil Price Is DecliningBrent Crude Oil Price Is Declining Amid De-Escalation in the Middle East
On 8th July, we noted that oil prices were forming a large narrowing triangle, originating from 2022-2023, with its upper boundary being a significant resistance point.
As shown on the Brent oil price chart (XBR/USD), bulls have since failed to overcome the upper boundary resistance around $87. Subsequently, the price:
→ turned downwards, breaking the blue upward trend line;
→ eventually breached the support level at $84, which we highlighted on 8th July;
→ Formed a descending channel (indicated in red).
Bearish sentiment is driven by:
→ news of increased oil inventories;
→ reduced tensions in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that an agreement with Hamas on hostage release is "maturing."
What’s next?
Technical analysis of the Brent oil price chart indicates:
→ The price is at the lower boundary of the red descending channel, which may provide support.
→ The accelerated decline since Friday has resulted in a loss of over 4%, potentially prompting bears to take profits.
In the short term, a bullish correction to the median line of the red channel is possible. The holiday season, currently in full swing, could also support oil demand.
What about the long term? Reuters reports an oil price forecast from Morgan Stanley analysts, according to which, although there is a clear deficit in the oil market, they expect that supply and demand will reach equilibrium by the fourth quarter, and by next year there could be a surplus, resulting in prices for grade oil Brent will fall closer to $70 per barrel. If accurate, this would mean the current narrowing triangle would be broken from the top down.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues
WTI Crude Oil formed a classic bearish reversal pattern
on a daily time frame - a head & shoulders pattern.
Bearish violation of its neckline is an important bearish signal.
I think that the market may reach 77.9 level next week.
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BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
On D1, you can consider a potential retest of the trend line, which can indicate a local trend change. You can consider a 3-wave structure with little risk for a downward movement trade. If this scenario begins to be realized globally, the targets can be considered at the level of 76.73 - 70.10. Entry by market or from levels 84.30. Stop for the 2nd wave.
Target 83.25 - 76.60
WTI Crude Oil Bearish Heist Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Overbought Market?!
Crude Oil leaves multiple bearish clues.
The price formed a double top and a rising wedge pattern on a daily
and broke a neckline and a trend line of both patterns.
On an hourly time frame, I see an inverted cup & handle with a confirmed
violation of its neckline.
Looks like the market is overbought.
We may expect a correction to 82.07
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Saudi Arabia delivers a major blow to the dollar!Oil prices have shown steady growth from $76 to $85 per barrel of Brent crude (#BRENT) since the beginning of June. This rise is driven by seasonal factors: high consumer activity during the summer driving season, increased demand from the transportation sector, and higher electricity consumption for air conditioning.
However, a more significant development in the oil market is the expiration of the 50-year-old Security Agreement between Saudi Arabia and the USA, signed in 1974, and Riyadh's refusal to renew it.
The agreement facilitated economic cooperation and military needs between the two nations, stabilizing the situation after the crises of the 1970s. The US benefited from oil at favorable prices, while Saudi Arabia gained a technological ally and wealth. Crucially, this agreement mandated that Saudi Arabia sell its oil exclusively for dollars, a restriction that no longer applies. This system greatly strengthened the dollar's position as the dominant global reserve currency by creating worldwide demand for dollars directly tied to oil transactions. Many have called this the "deal of the century."
Abandoning the petrodollar system could, in the long run, weaken the dollar's influence and impact US financial markets, reducing Washington's ability to accumulate national debt and profit from exports. Countries like China, Russia, Iran, and India are increasingly settling trades in their national currencies. By 2023, already 20% of global oil was being purchased without using the dollar. Now, Saudi Arabia can sell oil for any currencies or assets, including the yuan, gold, and even cryptocurrencies, which could significantly boost the value of these assets over time.
FreshForex analysts recommend closely monitoring changes in settlement schemes in the energy markets. Trading instruments like Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Gold (XAUUSD), and the US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USDCNH) might become very profitable investments in the future .
Invest ahead of the curve!
BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
On D1, after the impulse, the price broke through the previous highs with the 1st wave, which subsequently may indicate a potential correction within 40-50% of the impulse.
On H4, a 3-wave structure is forming as the movement continues. You can limit yourself to a short stop at the level of breaking through the local second wave
To cancel, form the 3rd wave in the opposite direction.
Goals: 82.42 - 81.52 - 80.08
Brent Crude Oil Price Hits Highest Since 1 MayBrent Crude Oil Price Hits Highest Since 1 May
As the chart shows, yesterday the price of Brent crude oil rose to $84.40, which is the highest level since 1 May 2024.
The demand for Brent crude oil was driven by the following factors:
The holiday season and increasing consumption from automotive and aviation transport. We wrote about this in the Brent market analysis on 11 June. Let us recall that Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that by the end of the summer, the price of Brent may rise to $86 per barrel with a “ceiling” around $90.
Geopolitical tension, namely:
→ Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refining bases.
→ The likelihood of escalation in the Middle East. For instance, Reuters reports that Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned of an impending “total war” with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.
Meanwhile, the technical analysis of the Brent crude oil price chart shows that:
→ The price continues to be within the narrowing triangle (shown in blue), which we wrote about on 11 June, but has risen above its median, approximately at the $83.0 level.
→ Additionally, the price is consolidating above the descending trend line (shown in red).
→ The fact that today the Brent price is pulling back after setting yesterday's high appears to be a false bullish breakout of the 29 May peak.
It is possible that, by forming a bull trap, the price will retreat to the median around the $83 level. Additional support could be provided at $81.66, where the bulls found support before breaking through the red line.
However, with the prospect of an increasingly hot summer, the price may continue to rise to the upper boundary of the channel, thereby confirming the Brent crude oil price forecast by Goldman Sachs analysts.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bullish Move
I see a breakout of an intraday horizontal resistance on WTI.
After a violation, the market started to correct within the expanding wedge pattern.
Test of a broken structure made the market bullish again.
I think that bulls may push the prices higher today.
Goal - 80.15
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BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BRENT - UniverseMetta - Analysis
Oil continues to move to H4, a triangle is formed; when it is broken, we can locally expect further movement to the levels of 85.92. Globally, the price may break through level 85, from which we can expect a correction and then look for an entry point to continue moving to levels to update levels 92 - 97
Local target 83.62 - 85.92
Target 83.62 - 85.92
BRENT. Weekly trading levels 10.06.2024 - 14.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
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I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
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BRENT. Weekly trading levels 3.06.2024 - 7.06.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a transaction and its support is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
! Please note that brokers have a difference in quotes, take this into account when trading.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no directional arrows), but zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Feedback is very important to me!
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Time to Sell?!
WTI Crude Oil is testing a recently broken horizontal support.
After a violation, it turned into a potentially strong resistance.
Approaching the underlined area, the price formed a head and shoulders pattern
on an hourly time frame.
A breakout of its horizontal neckline is a strong intraday bearish confirmation for us.
We can expect a bearish continuation now.
Goals 74.9 / 74.3
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