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Brent

BCOUSDCount for Brent Crude oil (BCOUSD) starts from covid low at $17.52 in April 2020 Vessels of oil where turned back at sea during lockdown. Supply was enormous, drove crude oil prices to negative territories which made headlines- something beautiful to have witness. LOL Five wave up from April 2020 low to March 8 2022 high March 8 2022 high of $135.84 is holding up strong, so far am tracking 1-2 formation decline which seems to suggest a zig-zag correction 5-3-5 (too early to call) High prices in crude oil may/could/should have peaked. Consumers may be looking forward to some relieve in the near term as price seems to cool off. Zig-Zag correction means bears are coming in strong and if formation holds true it means the market likes whatever is been done to fix the high oil price at least in the near term. decline below Wave B at $100.35 confirms high at 127.02 is in place ideal entry would be price below $100.35 with stops slightly above 127.02 Disclaimer: We accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage that may result, directly or indirectly, from any forecast or opinion, information or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, within this report
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by Ola250
USOIL 14th JUNE 2022Before July, USOIL was seen moving in the consolidation channel area which tends to be bullish. in July, USOIL sentiment will tend to be bearish. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member states announced plans to adjust oil production upward in July by 0.648 million barrels per day at the 29th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on June 2, reports the organization’s press service. US President Joe Biden has repeatedly appealed to Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output without success. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson also asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to boost production. He too was rebuffed.
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
5
Surprise? What surprise?INVESTMENT CONTEXT S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their worst week since January, sliding 5.1% and 5.6%, respectively; Nasdaq compounded losses close just shy of 7% in 2 days (June 9-10) ECB plans to stop its bond-buying program to cool record-high inflation (8.1% reading in May). The gap between Italian and German 10-year bond yields hit 227bps, the highest since May 2020 At a security summit in Singapore, China’s defense minister Wei Fenghe accused the U.S. of interfering in Chinese internal affairs and confirmed that annexation of the “China’s Taiwan” is a historic mission Fuel prices in U.S. hit 40-years max and keep rising while shale production remains sluggish to heed calls to hike volumes Blockchain assets collapsed under U.S. inflation data and EU monetary policy. On June 13, BTC entered USD 25k area (18-month low), ETH plunged to 13-months low, and all Layer-1 altcoins lost about 20% value during the weekend in a sector-wide rout PROFZERO'S TAKE As anticipated on our June 8 Parlay, there are still significant pockets of volatility on the market to call the bottom. In particular, we reiterated that the uncertainty that then permeated the ECB monetary policy could disrupt the feeble sidelining trade engaged by equities in the previous weeks - and so it happened. ProfZero does not share the surprise of many operators - neither for U.S. inflation at 8.6%, nor for ECB potentially raising interest rates by 50bps in September. Instead, it may now be the time to appreciate greater clarity from the regulatory side; definitely not a Buy signal, but a better environment to express investment strategies Rout in blockchain assets called by ProfZero as early as May 11 - and potential for more falls. No time to play PROFONE'S TAKE On June 9, along with the 25bps interest rate hike scheduled for July, the ECB declared the end of bond-buying era ("whatever it takes", anyone?), thus intensifying the pressure on Southern European countries (Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal) by sending their prospective borrowing costs higher. The gap between the Italian and German 10-year bond yields (considered as benchmark of eurozone market stress) reached 227bps, the highest level since May 2020, confirming the general market trend of investors avoiding risk assets in favor of safe havens. ProfOne argues Christine Lagarde's calls to avoid “fragmentation” in the continent's monetary policy is shaky, at best. For on one side it’s inherently contradictory to prevent non-homogeneity among the economies inside of EU, while on the other pursuing "selective quantitative tightening" would disparage the safety net around the continent's most virtuous economies. In yet another head-scratcher for traders, the debt crisis of November 2011-July 2012 looks set to resurface PROFTHREE'S TAKE Following ProfOne’s comments on the metals of the future, ProfThree has a lot to say on copper which is considered the key component on the road towards de-carbonisation. A recent 18% y-o-y plunge in copper exports from Chile (the world's largest producer) in May spooked traders given an already undersupplied market, judging by the critically low level of stocks at both LME and SHFE. In the fundamentals equation, ProfThree sees supply as fixed, since there is zero greenfield projects coming online for the foreseeable future, while those under discussion or development are mainly located in risky jurisdictions (Chile, Peru, Congo), putting even future supply under threat. At the same time, on the demand side there is ever growing demand from EV makers, as well as solar and wind mills producers. With that in mind, Profs are in full agreement about copper joining semiconductors and battery minerals (cobalt, nickel, lithium) in the list of the commodities of the future - each remarkable tainted by yet new supply-chain uncertainties
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Crude pausesThe Crude oil futures weekly chart started the week with a gap up, but ended the week with a doji candlestick, indicating a stall. Weekly indicators are divergent currently, with the RPM clearly pointing out the stalling, but the MACD crossed over to be bullish again. The daily chart shows of a mid-week extension to near the 125 target, missing slightly, and then stalling and retracing at the end of the week. The rate of daily increase is steady, and not sudden spikes, which is good for the trend build up. Meaning, it would probably last longer uptrend. But for now, it appears to be stalling, and the daily technicals are also showing the signs of a stall. Expectations for the coming two to three weeks would be retracements and consolidating for a coil, before the next launch, pending no sudden geopolitical events to trigger price spikes.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
NZDJPY: Improved risk outlook puts bulls in chargeNZD has gained in recent months from the market's improved risk outlook on global vaccine confidence. The NZD's recovery is being aided by China's stronger-than-expected trade figures. According to recent figures, May's imports and exports were likely positive. A rise in commodity prices benefits the currencies of commodity-producing countries. According to Bloomberg, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) stated on Thursday that it will progressively sell off the government bonds bought during its quantitative easing (QE) program over the next five years. When the (RBNZ) sells bonds, the money supply is reduced because cash is removed from the economy in return for bonds. In the long run, decreasing a country's money supply leads its currency to appreciate.
Long
by TradeyMarkets
1
Radar recap before the breakoutPROFZERO'S TAKE - RADAR RECAP Ever since the very first edition of our daily Parlay, Profs have repeatedly cited their radar to keep track of ongoing macroeconomic developments and forming views. It's about time then for a first full-blown recap of what we are looking at right now, and how do we see the next steps moving: World politics: The war in Ukraine has reshaped European geopolitics, forcing the EU to rethink its entire energy supply and security policy off from Russia, other than bringing the continent back to reassessing the readiness of its armed forces. The blockade of the port of Odesa exacerbated supply-chain tensions that had been simmering since 2021, pushing commodity prices to all-time highs in energy and fertilizers and ushering the risk of famine and social unrest in the Middle East and Africa due to shortage of cereals and calories at large. Meanwhile, the relationships between the U.S. and China remain tense over Taiwan, as the island remains exposed to a potential Chinese invasion - Bearish Monetary policy: Central banks around the world have finally taken inflation seriously, launching interest rate hike and balance sheet trimming plans in an attempt to cool price surges and yet preserve growth and employment in the real economy. U.S. data in May were in fact supportive, with Main Street adding 390,000 jobs and keeping unemployment as low as 3.6%. Yet, the effects of higher interest rates are going to be felt only as they trickle down through the economy, in the form of costlier mortgages for homeowners and more expensive or altogether barred access to debt financing for sub-investment grade nations and corporates. As a result, defaults could sweep the economy, as already seen by the failure of Sri Lanka to pay its foreign-currency debt; the looming default of Russia; and the collapse back in 2021 of Chinese constructions giant Evergrande - Neutral Equities: The secular bull run hit by equities since the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, and fueled by loose monetary and fiscal policy on both shores of the Atlantic, hit a major stop in Q1 2022, when investors rushed to the door, spooked by the prospects of Regulators draining liquidity from the system. As a result, Nasdaq plunged 30% from peak (November 2021) to trough (April 2022), while S&P 500 only teetered on the brink of a bear market (negative 19.9% peak-to-trough). Investor fled Growth stocks whose profits are deep in the future, hence exposed to greater discounting by higher interest rates, favoring Value equities thanks to the solidity of their balance sheets and capacity to generate income via dividends. ProfZero argues that within the very Growth space, Value-like equities do already exists - tech giant Microsoft (MSFT) for instance is America's best-rated company (AAA/stable) - Neutral Commodities: After a lost decade, and crude oil trading even in negative price territory for one day in 2020 (April 20, WTI crude contract settling at negative 37.63/boe), commodities came back roaring in 2022, in what analysts at Goldman Sachs have already dubbed the beginning of a new supercycle. ProfZero concurs that commodities - and their supply chains - have been taken for granted for too long; now, in the wake of de-globalization talks, developed as well as emerging economies find themselves rattled by the prospects of unsustainably high - or even unaccessible - key commodities like fuel and fertilizers, or even worse calories. Thinking one step ahead, ProfOne has set its eyes on the minerals of the future - cobalt, lithium and nickel - reminding that these are also highly concentrated in a handful of areas around the globe, thus possibly falling into the same supply trap of the commodities of the past century - Bullish Blockchain assets: A unprecedented "crypto winter" has gripped investors in the blockchain space, first sending BTC from all-time at USD 68,990 in November 2021 to USD 25,350 on May 12, 2022 (63% peak-to-trough), then decreeing the collapse of Terra/LUNA project in just 3 days on the second week of May this year. Yet, the blockchain space is showing remarkable resilience, with BTC resisting further slides and in fact potentially preparing for a new "golden age", as foreseen by venture capital fund Andreesen Horowitz. ProfZero remains focused on the superiority of the blockchain as a technology, capable to shape the next decade in information processing, automotive, entertainment, finance and healthcare - Bullish
CME:BTC1!Long
by ProfZero
Real economy beating expectations yet markets trading in red 🤔INVESTMENT CONTEXT President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was not blocking Ukrainian wheat from being exported, and that the grain could be dispatched via ports controlled either by Russia or Ukraine. Before the war, Russia and Ukraine accounted for ca. 29% of international annual wheat sales U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations (325,000) and showing resilient real economy in the face of rampant inflation and higher interest rates Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell to 414.7 million barrels in the wake of strong demand, yet limiting chances of further releases to cool domestic energy prices Goldman Sachs COO John Waldron followed JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon saying “This is among if not the most complex, dynamic environment I’ve ever seen in my career". On a similar tone, in a leaked Tesla email, Elon Musk cited having a "super bad feeling" about the economy as the main reason for shedding 10% of the company's workforce PROFZERO'S TAKE When good news are met with S&P 500 dropping more than 1.50%, and Nasdaq doing even worse at 2.47% in the red, we know something is off. That's what happens when bears are in control, and policy makers are desperate to understand how far can they move with tightening before the backlash. A remarkably strong U.S. economy just added 390,000 jobs in May, beating analyst expectations and reassuring the Fed it could maintain the trajectory of 50bps rate hikes in July and August. ProfZero clearly welcomes Main Street's resilience and rising wages - yet, as anticipated in Step99 podcast, it cautions against the forward-looking effects of monetary policy vs. the actual state of the economy. As pointed out by The Economist, "A recession in America by 2024 looks likely" - today's strength of the real economy may at best soften its blow Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser sees "three R" whiplashing EU economy - rates, Russia and recession, this latter happening in Europe ahead of the U.S. because of "the energy side (...) really having an impact". ProfZero has made energy a key theme of this Parlay, with potentially more decisive effects on the real economy than monetary policy. With Brent testing again USD 120/boe and fading cushion inventories from the U.S., it is hard to imagine how the EU will cope with the next cold season without rationing output, hence slashing GDP growth. Regasification plants and last-generation nuclear are definitely tools of the future; but by then, are seaborne imports going to be enough? Equities are definitely off the lows witnessed in April and early May - perhaps Musk's "super bad feeling" and Mr. Dimon's "hurricane" are rather looming on the real economy? Not an inch less worrying... BTC once again confidently breaking up the mid-term triangle pattern and trying to regain 32k after trading below 30k on June 4-5 - and yet ProfZero's eyes are set on the lurking death cross on 200MA PROFONE'S TAKE After sharing about lithium and nickel, ProfOne completes the overview of rare minerals that are crucial for the production of batteries setting its eyes are on cobalt. Cobalt prices soared from USD 30k/ton in January to USD 52k in May - on top of the 2x surge in 2021 vs. 2020. According to the Cobalt Institute, in the next five years cobalt demand is expected to hit 320k/ton, up from 175k/ton in 2021. ProfOne argues that meeting such demand won’t be operatively easy. For once, cobalt is yet another highly concentrated resource: about 70% of world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where production is dominated by Chinese companies and commodities trader Glencore (GLEN). Adding to it that world's second supplier of cobalt is Russia, the metals puzzle turns out to be a fairly intricate one
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Crude Oil much longer term perspectiveThe monthly Crude Oil chart shows some seriously nasty ranges. From early 2000s, we have had monthly close check-ins from 20-140; and it does appear that the current dash for the upper end of the range is stronger in momentum (acceleration as seen by the slope and the size of the candlesticks). Taking history into account, it should slow down once crude is about 140, but I suspect the momentum should push it beyond, and as far as 155 in an overshoot. IF we are lucky, ensuing years might see it come back down to 42-45 support area. Unless it maintains above 140, then there would be a massive range breakout. Projections from there would give crude oil another 100 more... yes, 240. But for the nearer term, When crude makes a high above 140 by the end of 2022, things should start getting shaky... watch for it! Phwfffftttttt....
NYMEX:CL1!
by Auguraltrader
OIL 5th JUNE 2022The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC), agreed on Thursday to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) per month in July and August instead of the previously agreed 432,000 bpd. OPEC decision to increase production targets slightly more than planned. As a result of that expectation, it will have little effect on tight global supply and by increasing demand as China loosens Covid restrictions. From the existing fundamental trend, the oil price tends to be bullish, it is possible that the price will breakout the resistance area. However, market participants still think the price of oil is too high, this can make the price rebound to the resistance area, and make the price will correct down. OIL 26th MAY 2022
TVC:USOIL
by DNP-FX
The situation with oil is getting worse and worse...Up until a few days ago I believed oil had a chance of getting back down to 75-95$. It can still get all the way down there, but for the price to get there it would need traditional markets to crash badly. The current production is too low, the underinvestment in production is massive and the oil industry isn't incentivized to drill for new wells. At the same time the problem is getting larger and larger as there aren't enough refineries that can use oil to create other products like gasoline, and many of these refineries can't just take any type of oil and use it to produce stuff. OPEC+ has been consistently missing its targets and is unable to increase production, oil released from the SPR isn't able to alleviate these issues, while a significant supply is lost from Russia, Syria, Libya, Iran and Venezuela due to sanctions, wars or other issues. The recent announcement from the EU that there will an oil embargo just makes the situation worse, while at the same time tensions are getting worse and worse as 1 Iranian oil tanker was 'seized' by the US in Greece, and 2 Greek oil tankers were 'seized' by Iran. The more oil output that is lost, the worse the situation is getting, despite the fact that we already have significant demand destruction. If oil stayed around 110 while China had big parts of its population under strict lockdown, what is going to happen as it slowly re-opens? At some point things are going to get very ugly and the high oil prices are going to damage the global economy beyond repair, something that will force oil prices to come down. In some of my previous analysis I did mention some of the potential targets for oil, which could be at 200-300$, but for now the key target remains the 2008 ATH at 140-150$. In my opinion the market will take some time to break that level, but the financial melt down won't come until it gets around 250$. If we take inflation into account, the price of the dollar, as well as the growth of money supply and that of the global stock market capitalization, the 150$ peak in 2008 is now close to 200-250$, however the 150$ peak has psychological significance. As oil is now cheaper than back in 2008-2011, as the market has closed above the 2011 highs and as the structure is very bullish across all contracts is very bullish, the price of oil could go much much higher from here. Gasoline making new ATHs and has turned the 2008 ATHs into support. December contract formed an SFP but not that bearish. The average price of the next five months had a very strong close and there is nothing really bearish to see. Hence my first target for now is 145$, the second target after some consolidation below 145$ is 195$, and the final one where I'd start exiting and potentially shorting oil would be 245$.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BitcoinMacro
Brent Oil - Mid Term Roller CoasterIt is near impossible to following all the developments in the geopolitics and try to forecast the price of Oil but what does technical analysis suggest? Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves): Since the sharp fall of March 2020 it is likely that we are observing the development of a zig-zag ABC Five waves of the first impulse A completed in July 2021 Wave B took shape of a complex Running Correction WXY finishing in November 2021 And since then we can see formation of another impulse in wave C Waves 1 to 3 of this impulse culminating in March 2022 are quite clear which have been followed by a contracting triangle The crux of the analysis is developing right now when the price started moving in a very choppy way There are two alternatives in this scenario - (1) wave 4 of C has not completed yet, but then it becomes too lengthy and disproportional to the whole wave, (2) wave 5 is created by an Ending Diagonal with 3-3-3-3-3 structure The preferred scenario is the latter where waves 1-3 have formed and we can expect correction of wave 4 to last at least until end of June, followed by the last zigzag to top the high of $138 This is quite complex scenario so it needs to be monitored against all the rules of Ending Diagonal which can also find the Educational post below. What do you think about Brent Oil and its short term prospects? Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. Thanks Educational post on Ending Diagonal
TVC:UKOILLong
by vitalalyt
5