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Brent

ECB playing it cool; hope it won't have to drop it like it's hotINVESTMENT CONTEXT According to the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in early May, policymakers remarked the need to keep raising the Fed's interest rate, noting that "a restrictive stance of policy may well become appropriate depending on the evolving economic outlook and the risks to the outlook" Russia heavily cut interest rates for the second time since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, bringing it from 14% to 11% as annual inflation cooled from 17.8% in April to 17.5% as of May Thematic investment management giant Fidelity sees increased recession risk as volatility is set to persist After the collapse of LUNA, Terra project has voted to preserve the community and launch of a new blockchain, LUNA 2.0 PROFZERO'S TAKE While markets ambiguously read the minutes from FOMC meeting in May, ProfZero sees a rather coherent stance by policymakers, who won't refrain from exacerbating the already tightening monetary policy in order to tamp down inflation. What stood as a surprise to ProfZero was instead Ursula von der Leyen tone at Davos, where the EU Commission President said the EU won't be rushed into withdrawing monetary stimulus, and that supply-fueled inflation should not cause investor "panic". ProfZero concurs inflation in EU is largely imported; yet it fails to agree with Madame von der Leyen - the EU is caught between ailing growth, sticky inflation (flat around 7.5%) and threatened by massive debt loads (Italy above all). A tangle monetary policy alone may hardly undo all on its own Crude oil bull run is persisting deep into Q2, thus likely translating into yet another bumper quarter for energy majors. With Brent crude firmly above USD 100/boe and European natural gas (TTF) futures above 80 points after years below 20, ProfZero expects more good news for investors in the segment, especially in the form of greater dividend stability and buyback plans. Yet, as now several energy stocks trade at all-time highs (Cheniere, LNG; Chevron, CVX; Equinor, EQNR), ProfZero cautions against potential steep reversals should catalysts form to put a lid on prices - the ramp up in U.S. shale gas production should already alarm industry players, while on the opposite side it would play as a highly welcomed agent of deflation for economies at large When one of the world's most respected macroeconomists shares his views, ProfZero stands, and listens. Olivier Blanchard warned about swelling inflation as early as February 2021; now the former MIT Professor and Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees a "0.9 probability" the economy will return to a low-interest rates scenario, overcoming the tendency for markets to "focus on the present and extrapolate it forever". ProfZero has long been advocating in favor of keeping "cool heads" and focusing on underlying value fundamentals. Professor Blanchard would be proud to know ProfZero is really puzzled about the dynamics of semiconductor industry. One of the key commodities of the future has been in chronic undersupply for over a year. Yet, sector equities fail to impress, despite the apparent surge in pricing power. NVIDIA's (NVDA) beat on top and bottom line (USD 8.29bn revenue vs. 8.10 forecast; USD 1.36 EPS vs. 1.29) sent the stock sliding 7% in the after market, plunging it down 50% since the November 2021 peak. ProfZero well remembers how beaten energy stocks were during the pandemic, before roaring back in 2022. Is the same narrative brewing the semiconductor space?
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Brent: GlueyBrent is currently glued to the resistance at $114.74, where it has finished wave b in blue. However, we expect it to let go of this mark soon to fall into the turquoise zone between $101.67 and $99.83. There, it should complete wave a in turquoise and move back above $104.67 afterwards to finish wave b in turquoise. After that is settled, Brent should gradually fall below the support lines at $104.67, $97.56 and $93.57. There is a 40% chance, though, that Brent could climb above $114.74 and make a detour through the green zone between $117.78 and $133.52 first before moving downwards.
TVC:UKOIL
by MarketIntel
2
⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 9-May 13➡️ Oil usually rises and falls with the stock market because the prices of both markets are like a proxy for economic activity. But in recent years, these relationships have collapsed. Oil growth may continue to outperform. Stock markets fell and oil prices held. It is more likely that oil will continue to outperform equities on a cross-asset basis. If you are in a place where economic activity is strong now but could also slow down in the coming years, stock and credit markets could start to weaken even as energy prices hold. Oil prices could rise even more if the conflict in Ukraine escalates, a scenario that is likely to push prices down in other asset classes. But if geopolitical risk subsides, there could be a recovery in growth, greater economic confidence and more demand for energy, meaning that oil may not fall much compared to future expectations. This should support the oil. Technically, oil is not expected to fall below 110$ - 111$ this week. Longs can be entered from current prices. The target for the deal is supposed to be at the level of 115$. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👍 Thanks for your comments and likes 👍 👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
TVC:UKOILLong
by TradePlus-Fx
7
USOIL Bars Pattern IdeaIf a deleveraging like 1999 is happening, perhaps we will see 1999-2008 in oil play out in a similar fashion? Not saying it will or won't happen, but it currently looks like oil is setting up momentum for a future breakout. I copied the bars pattern from 1999 to 2008. Maybe it's too bullish? Or maybe not bullish enough. I would venture to say that it seems so much worse than 1999, the prediction isn't bullish enough, but I'm not sure. What do you think? Good luck and don't forget to hedge your bets :)
TVC:USOILLong
by fringe_chartist
53
Possible Bullish Scenario on Crude Oil. First, let's start with context. The price has been moving sideways for the last 60 days on a key level where we have observed reversals in the past, as well as continuations after clear consolidations. The Primary Bullish target from where we are right now is 145.00. The Primary Bearish target is 80.00. How can we know which of them will be the right one? The answer is "We don't know" That's why I always get ready for 2 possible scenarios. This is an idea of how I'm thinking about long positions on Crude Oil . As you can see, the main element here is the Risk to Reward Ratio, which is 3. That means that if I'm stopped two times, and I'm right one time, I will still make a profit. ALL my strategy goes around that concept. However, on the bearish side, this would be the setup I'm interested in: REMEMBER: We do not control the outcomes of the market. However, we do control planning our setups in advance, managing risk, and looking for setups with a great risk to reward ratio. What are your thoughts on Crude Oil? Let me know in the comments.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ThinkingAntsOk
3