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Brent

WTICOUSD - Oil Price Analysis and 2022 ForecastOil coming into a key area at the bottom of an 18-month structure. Typically I would wait for this to fully correct (below the 18-month structure) and then make a decision on how to trade it. But I think the most glaring thing about oil, is the fact that the all time high was set in July 2008. Lots more money out there these days; lot more drivers too. Economy is showing signs of inflation everywhere. I think it is a mistake to think this thing cannot ring the ATHs as early as Summer 2020. For now we watch and wait to see how it behaves in what has been a somewhat persistent range. From a trading / exposure perspective - I have been long in oil since September of this year. We will continue to track oil closely. God Bless
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by ChiefMacro
1
Brent Crude Technical TouchThe overall decline of Brent crude benchmark prices from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 went within the five-wave pattern. Yet, it could possibly transform to an ABC correction with an A wave that we are witnessing now, or we may have an incoming bearish trend, but we may certainly depict one more downside wave. The first wave that finished from $86.70 to $80.20; The second wave, which recovered to 76.4% of the Fibonacci retracement; The third wave, which declined from $85.50 to $77.58; The fourth wave, which rebounded to 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement ; The fifth wave, which declined from $83 per barrel to $65.72m - an extension of 2,382% to the length of the first wave. After all five waves pass, Brent crude prices would likely be a subject of an upward correction in a zig-zag form or double zig-zag. I have reasons to consider that we have witnessed the first part of the rise as Brent crude prices have made a rebound of 50% from its projected lows. Initially I have suggested that the multi-month upward trend that has started in April 2020 would survive. However, now its support has been passed downwards and this support at $75-76 per barrel is now being tested as a new resistance. So, it is logical to expect prices to roll back from this level. And this was confirmed at the end of this week. Besides, an “evening star” pattern was formed within the last three days on the daily timeframe chart. On junior timeframes we have received a divergence between peaks at $76.24 and $76.69 per barrel. By saying this we may suggest there is a strong technical reason for Brent crude prices to slide. The inner side of a zig-zag usually provides a decline of 50% to 61.8% to the first part of the growth. This means a scale back of Brent crude prices to $70-$71.30 per barrel. Sometimes, this decline could be less at 38.2%. In our case we should turn to a five-hour timeframe where we have two potentially interesting zones that the price may return to. The first zone is located at $71.80-72.18 per barrel, and the second is at $69.82-71.93 per barrel. Zones have a small overlapping on $71.80-71.93, where we may expect the price to return to where it was in the first place. We may also have a steeper correction to $69.91 per barrel, but it is unlikely we will see prices below that level. With this being said we may suggest another upside wave for Brent crude prices that would be equal to the first wave or lower by 38.2%. We should also remember that there is no five-wave pattern. So, we may have a threat of another downside wave of crude prices in late January or even February 2022.
OShort
by scavoanastasiia
Brent Crude Prices May Soon Return to $80After a drop to $69.28 per barrel Brent crude prices quickly rebounded to the upside on Wednesday touching $74.57. And there are several fundamental and technical reasons for it.First, gas prices in Europe skyrocketed to $180 per MWh for ICE Dutch TTF January gas futures on Tuesday, or by 22.7% in a single day. This lift off of gas prices also pushed crude prices up as high gas prices are forcing consumers to move to alternative fuels, including various petroleum products. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that record high gas prices would increase oil demand by 500,000 bpd throughout Q1 2022, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported weekly crude stocks in the United States dropped by 3.67 million barrels, well above expected 2.63 million. Distillate stocks were down by 849,000 barrels and gasoline inventories were up by 3.7 million barrels.  According to the forecasts the Energy information Administration (EIA) is expected to officially report crude oil inventories to be down by 2.750 barrels. Technically, Brent crude prices are within the ABC correction, where the decline from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 created wave A. Now we have wave B that is usually in a form of a zigzag. The first part of this zigzag was the rise of Brent crude prices from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel. The second part strongly correlates with the first one and could be at 61.8% of its length or the same as the first one. Mathematically that would mean a potential for Brent crude prices to recover to $76.06 per barrel, or even to $80.26 per barrel. However, the correction might not be over yet as Brent crude prices haven’t fell below 61.8% of the previous rise from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel. Goldman Sachs oil may hit $100 per barrel over the next two years as the demand for oil continues to grow above existing record levels. However, a moderate expectation from Goldman Sachs suggests that average crude prices are likely to remain around $85 per barrel by the end of 2023.
OLong
by scavoanastasiia
UKOILSPOT bearish continuation! | 22 Dec 2021Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by our descending trendline. We see potential for a dip from our sell entry at 74.1 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 71.25 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:UKOILSPOTShort
by FXCM
$UKOIL $WTI Looking For Short Opportunities - Patterns EvolvingTraders, I trade UKOIL (Brent) mainly because of GBP factor but this idea can be applied to USOIL (WTI) as well. There is a head and shoulders pattern on Brent but there is a gap left too. Gap is present right at the completion of a W pattern which can give us very good short opportunity. If the market does not go up there to complete the W pattern then break and confirmation of the neck line break will give us good short opportunity. Markets can be very fragile in these last days of the year so be careful. Rules: 1. Never trade too much 2. Never trade without a confirmation 3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too ✅ If you found this idea useful, hit the like button, subscribe and share it in other trading forums. ✅ Follow me for future ideas, trade set ups and the updates of this analysis ✅ Don't hesitate to share your ideas, comments, opinions and questions. Take care and trade well -Vik ____________________________________________________ 📌 DISCLAIMER The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only. Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions. ____________________________________________________
TVC:UKOILShort
by vikinsa
4
🛢️Brent oil - correction lasting several years? 🕰️● CFDs on Brent Crude Oil ( UKOIL ): 🕐 1M "Fig. 1" The development of the ending diagonal is expected within the wave (V) of ((III)) . _______________________________________ ● BCOUSD (OANDA): 🕐 2D "Fig. 2" From the end of wave II, there is a five-wave structure — an impulse that could be wave Ⓐ . If this assumption is correct, then the current decline is part of the correction Ⓑ , which can take the form of any corrective pattern and last for several years. _______________________________________ BCOUSD (OANDA): 🕐 4h "Fig. 3" "Fig. 4" Once again, I repeat that at this stage in the development of the correction it is not possible to predict its final shape and duration, but I am betting on a triangle , on a model that has a high predictive value and is appears , according to my experience, in wave B of the zigzag most often. _______________________________________ Disclaimer — The owner of the TradeWaves-EWA © community is not responsible and has no direct or indirect obligations to the User/Customer in connection with any possible losses or financial damages related to any content of this community.
TVC:UKOILLong
by TradeWaves-EWA
ConocoPhillips had 6 crashes since 1974One of the simplest way to invest/trade Oil Companies is to study the Brent/WTI price movements because they are very correlated. Every oil price crashes, oil companies will follow as well. Commodities is very volatile and for that comes an opportunity to profit. In the last 50 years, every time the stock drops more than 50%, it follows by a rally. For this stock, it crashed 6 times in the last 50 years the stock crashed every 8 years however that average is skewed by a massive bull run on the stock from its recovery of 1985-86 crash until it reached its peak in 2008 (a whopping 2783% rally!!) Before that massive ridiculous rally, the stock crashed on average every 4 years. In the most recent 3 crashes is within the last 13 years.. on average roughly, the stock crashed more or less every 4 years The last two crashes were followed by a rally with an average of 180% bull run. Currently the stock is on a 274% bull run! Actionable : It's hard to trade/invest in oil companies using the normal valuation method i.e DCF due to its tight correlation with oil prices. I let the price movemet of oil to decide for me if its time for me to buy this stock. Currently I am on the sideline and wait for a correction.
NYSE:COPLong
by sufiansaid