Oil: Head & Shoulders Pattern,Heading Back to the $60 Territory?Hi Fellow Realistic Traders. Here's my latest price action analysis on Oil!
The oil market has recently witnessed a significant head and shoulders pattern breakout, signaling a clear shift towards a bearish reversal scenario. Subsequently, the price has persistently descended below the EMA200 line, affirming the establishment of a robust downtrend. Further underscoring this trend, the Stochastic indicator revealed a bearish divergence, suggesting a potential sustained downward movement towards our target area.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/resistance area is reached.
Disclaimer:
"Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on $UKOIL."
Brent
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Intraday Bearish Signal?! 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil keeps falling.
After a completion of a correctional movement, the market dropped again
and violated a key horizontal support.
After a breakout, the price formed a narrow horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
Its support breakout is an important intraday confirmation.
We can anticipate a bearish continuation to 67.3 level now.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues 🛢️
Crude Oil dropped yesterday, as I predicted.
In fact, the market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
A breakout of a horizontal support of a wide horizontal range
was a strong trend following signal.
The next support that I see on a daily is 67.5.
It will most likely be the next goal for the sellers.
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WTI - H4 - Area for Long!WTI is again in the value area and good for long positions.
Manage your risk and set some buy limit in different prices like 70.5 - 71.5 - 72.5
By manage your money wisely you can earn money with out worrying about losing your money.
If this area breaks and oil falls more don't panic!
Just keep your positions and buy in the lower levels
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices saw a decline due to skepticism about OPEC+'s output cuts and concerns over growing supply overshadowing potential disruptions in the Middle East. U.S. crude settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel, and Brent dropped 1.1% to $78.03 a barrel. Despite announcements of output cuts, the lack of confidence in compliance and doubts about measurement methods have cast shadows on the effectiveness of these measures. Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have revived concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, amplifying market anxieties. Additionally, fears of decreased demand and weak global manufacturing activity in November added pressure on prices. Technical indicators signaled bearish sentiment, indicating possible support levels at $66.78 and a potential rebound around $74.75.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a daily since the beginning of November.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the price breaks and closes above 80.85 - the upper boundary of the range,
I will anticipate a growth to 82.50.
Bearish Scenario
In case of a breakout of 72.20 support, we may anticipate a bearish movement
to 87.35 level.
Wait for a breakout, that will give you a strong bullish or bearish confirmation.
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WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts.
Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases.
Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Brent - D1\H4Oil Brent
D1 - The price has formed a triangular formation, which may mean that if it fixes beyond the lower line of the triangle border, the price may continue to fall further along the trend and further reduce the price to the levels of 70.19
When fixing behind the upper trend line, the price may reverse and begin to rise, since a 3-wave structure may already be formed for the targets; in this case, we will see the price of 89.21.
H4 - For purchases, it is better to wait for fixation behind the trend line; you can also try to open at the current price with minimal risk per transaction from the lower border of the triangle. If there is a fixation, turn into sales.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the level of 82.07 to be broken/fixed and an upward movement towards the nearest targets of 89.21.
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 78.93 - 78.23, if this scenario does not materialize.
When fixing behind the lower line 78.95 - 78.15, the idea is canceled when a 3-wave structure is formed in the opposite direction 89.95 - 82.87.
Long
Targets 83.01 - 84.31 - 86.68 - 89.21
Short
Targets 76.47 - 75.24 - 72.63 - 70.19
UK Brent 4H : Still trades at the bearish channel UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures rose sharply in the past sessions, reaching the top of the descending channel and confirming the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, paving the way for achieving additional gains starting at 80.00 and extending to 78.87.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid and effective during coming period and the moving average 50 still support the price to decline , taking into account that stabilized above 82.11 will force the price to get out of bearish channel and will start a positive trades .
The expected trading range for today is between support 78.87 and resistance 82.11 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 80.00 , 78.87
resistance line : 82.11 , 83.05
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TradePlus-Fx|USDJPY: there is room to fall💬 Description : The situation for the Japanese yen is significantly different from other trading instruments. Surprisingly, the yen has a good chance of strengthening against the dollar despite its global strengthening. The growth of the yen is, of course, limited and is currently located at 147.273 . The level of 150.286 acts as quite strong resistance, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the short term. This barrier for buyers has a high probability of false breakouts, so this needs to be taken into account when placing your trade.
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Strifor || USDCAD-17/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: This currency pair is actively pressing towards the support area. Most likely, this obstacle for sellers will be overcome within 1-2 trading weeks. Regarding shorter-term ideas, there will most likely be a slight increase, after which the instrument will enter into a local downward movement.
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TradePlus-Fx|USDCAD: two goals💬 Description: The key price movements happen around the level of 1.38271 for the USDCAD currency pair. A particularly important point for traders trading on a breakout. Now the instrument has accumulated enough strength, and there is also all the technical base for a comfortable entry into a long position.
The next two days will accumulate important data from the United States , against the background of which the currency pair will most likely grow. Here we identify two goals for ourselves, locating the second goal at the level of 1.39775. We cannot rule out manipulations of various kinds, such as a false breakout, and must be prepared for another entry attempt.
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Strifor || USDCAD-14/11/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For the Canadian dollar, as part of the general strengthening of the US dollar, we also expect a strengthening of the American currency. Here oil can come to the aid of the Canadian, which is expected to slightly recover in price. However, the local target is still located above the current price, behind the local highs.
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