BRENT UKOil Trade IdeaA recent bullish trend is evident in BRENT UKOil on the 4-hour time frame, marked by the development of higher highs and higher lows. My approach involves anticipating a retracement into the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone, creating a favorable discounted entry point. It is essential to emphasize that this analysis is merely an educational idea and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
Brentcrude
UK Brent 4H : Still trades at the bearish channel UK BRENT OIL
New forecast
The price of Brent crude futures rose sharply in the past sessions, reaching the top of the descending channel and confirming the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, paving the way for achieving additional gains starting at 80.00 and extending to 78.87.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid and effective during coming period and the moving average 50 still support the price to decline , taking into account that stabilized above 82.11 will force the price to get out of bearish channel and will start a positive trades .
The expected trading range for today is between support 78.87 and resistance 82.11 .
Be careful because of the war between Palestine and Israel, we may witness unexpected movements .
support line : 80.00 , 78.87
resistance line : 82.11 , 83.05
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UKOil Brent Technical Analysis And Trade IdeaIn this video, we embark on a comprehensive analysis of UKOil, with a specific focus on the prevalent bearish sentiment observed in the 1-month (1M) and 1-week (1W) timeframes. Notably, our charts reveal that Brent has approached a critical support level, a pivotal juncture. Throughout this presentation, we delve into the fundamental tenets of technical analysis, encompassing essential components such as evaluating the current market trend, price dynamics, market structure, and other indispensable aspects of technical analysis. As we progress through the video, we meticulously scrutinize a potential trading opportunity in Brent Oil.
It is imperative to stress that the insights shared in this content are exclusively intended for educational purposes and should not be misconstrued as financial advice. Participating in the foreign exchange market trading carries a significant level of risk. Therefore, it is vital to prudently incorporate robust risk management strategies into your trading plan to navigate these challenges effectively.
WTI CrudeoilOwing to geopolitical tension around the globe, can expect WTI to trade around 90$ during next week. In 15mins chart, we can see the ''W'' recovery pattern. Can expect an upside movement to 90$. If the situation worsens in war, it will move beyond that.
Disclaimer : Trade as per your risk level.
Oil Brent - H4Oil Brent
*Updating the idea and how to act*
Long - ABC correction structure has come to an end - You can observe an impulse rebound after the fall, which can lead to further growth and the 5th wave on W1
The nearest target is at 95.90
This scenario is best used to exit the triangular formation on H4 when the level of 87.85 is broken - with the cancellation of this movement and without increasing risks if the breakout turns out to be false at the level of 85.09
Short - If the price does not continue to move upward, and this was a full-fledged reversal, in the continuation of the 5th wave on D1, the nearest targets will be at the level of 74.30
In this scenario, you can consider selling from the level of 85.09 - with the cancellation of this movement and without increasing risks if the breakout turns out to be false at the level of 87.85.
What to expect now?
Waiting for the breakout of the level for Long - 87.85, local target 95.90 - 98.10
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 85.09, if this scenario does not materialize.
Waiting for the breakout of the level for Short - 85.09, local target 77.77 - 74.30
When opening a position, it is best to exit the position from the level of 87.85, if this scenario does not materialize.
Long
Targets 90.17 - 92.49 - 94.63 - 98.10
Short
Targets 82.28 - 79.30 - 77.77 - 74.30
The increase in Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ prices due to the WAR🚀➕15%😔Unfortunately, in recent days, there has been a war between Israel and Palestine, and I hope that this war will end as soon as possible.🙏🙏🙏
🧐Now, how can the effect of this war show itself in the oil chart❗️❓
💡At the same time, as geopolitical tensions increase throughout the Middle East , oil prices are likely to rise even more. Meanwhile, US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) are down to just 17 days , the lowest in history. This is almost half the historical average of 33 days dating back to 1990 .
💡In addition, OPEC this week reaffirmed its commitment to voluntarily cut production to a ceiling of more than 1.5 million barrels per day.
💡In the days when Russian crude oil exports are limited, and the world's largest oil producers are also at war.
😱There's never been a worse time to have an unloaded SPR than today.
📈In terms of technical analysis, Brent Crude Oil is moving near the bottom of the ascending channel , 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and SMA(100) .
🔔I expect that starting next week, the trend of Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ will rise and at least reach the 🔴 Resistance zone($100.48_$95.80) 🔴 again( ➕15%) .
⛽️Brent Crude Oil⛽️Analyze (USDBRO), Daily time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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Crude trader - trying to price certainty in conflict The high on our Brent crude price has been $89.68 – hit at midday – but while our clients are long of crude (65% of open interest is held long), we’re seeing better sellers in the broader market, as we roll towards EU trade. The early rally felt reasonably orderly, but a lot of questions were being asked and without many immediate answers to obtain the certainty we crave as market participants - so naturally in this backdrop we get outsized moves, as a lack of clarity causes dispersions in price. When it comes to knowledge most market participants are now military experts and have quite poor knowledge of Middle East relations – again this makes it harder to price risk.
Our US crude price sits up 3.8%, off the earlier highs of $87.45 and holds the 50-day MA – should EU/UK traders come in and buy the slight intraday dips then $89.03 is the level to watch topside for supply. It could go either way, but on balance I favour selling into intraday rallies.
Today been some reversal after the recent drawdown in crude into $82 – positioning played a big part in that run, but we had seen signs that the Saudis may look at increasing production at year-end. We had even seen positive steps at a geopolitical level; brokered by the US, an agreement that Saudi would recognize Israel and as MBS said, forge “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War”. Instead of this positive backdrop, we have seen a 180-degree turn with Hamas's attack on Israel, with the market now questioning if we could see engagement with Hezbollah and Lebanon. With President Biden standing firm with Israel, the view is Iran’s oil exports which have been growing will be cut.
If we look at Crude ‘time spreads’ – that is, front-month crude futures – June 2024 futures - we see this +$0.97, so modestly higher – if we really felt like Saudi production was going to get impacted by the unfolding situation then this would higher still.
If in doubt, switch gears and head to Nat Gas which is building on the recent breakout and looks like it may start to bull trend.
BRENT OIL ( UK OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart UK OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today UKOIL analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (UKOIL market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on UKOIL Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
Brent above @$100 might not be a myth !Brent have two recent bottoms 1.June 2023 ($72) and 2. August 2023 ($82.5) and has rallied more than 33% since July. The rally still looks to be continuing without till 496, $98.5 and $100 very soon. Given the strong momentum buildup and supply cuts from OPEC+ has given the oil a due rally which the cartel was expecting since June 2023.
Technically speaking levels of $126 are also on the charts as the commodity is breaking out of a Declining wedge pattern which was in formation from Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 a strong supply side pressure will be giving the commodity due advantage to rise above $100 to $125.65 as we can see.
BRENT OIL ( UK OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders
In This Chart UK OIL HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet
today UKOIL analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (UKOIL market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on UKOIL Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
UPDATE: Brent Crude is on the way to $100!Since the last update, Brent has broken above the major Falling Wedge...
And it's been on a quiet but consistent trajectory up.
With the USD strengthening and with oil being an inelastic good where price has little effect on demand, means we can expect the price to continue to the first target.
$100!
We are in it for the medium term.
Brent uptrend exhaustionContext:
Weekly – uptrend (UT), one-time-framing up
Daily – uptrend
Microstructure:
Poor highs, poor lows
Last day:
value moved down
Special notes:
There are multiple signs of UT exhaustions: shortening of daily trend upthrust, daily volume dries up, last week value area overlaps with previous week
Moreover, price is close to monthly resistance cloud. Without some stong bullish news it will be hard to get through it.
Conclusion:
A swing trader that is still LONG should strongly consider reducing position. At this point it is still too early to flip but risks of staying LONG outweigh potential upside.
For a day trader there is still an opportunity to play LONG as daily low high (LH) is still not set. The best risk-reward opportunity for LONG can be found near last week low
Brent Crude OilBrent crude oil had quite the month in July, climbing from $74 per barrel all the way up to $85. This price jump came from Russia cutting back on exports to Saudi Arabia, trimming all their oil production. Still, I don't think the price is going to burst out of its range of $72 - $88 per barrel yet.
What's interesting is the strengthening of "crack spreads"
Now you may be wondering what "crack spread" is. It's basically the difference between the buying cost of crude oil and the selling price of the final products, such as gasoline and diesel. There has been a significant increase in the crack spread for RBOB gasoline due to a production mismatch with the total demand and exports.
Although there was a decrease in demand in July, the low inventories of gasoline at a five-year low and diesel at a multi-decade rock-bottom level have helped maintain prices for refined products. Add to this mix a hike in jet fuel demand, mostly driven by China's international travel sector.
There's more. Due to the hot summer heat reducing shipping capacity along the Rhine River, European refineries might need to cut back production. This could prompt the U.S. to ramp up the export of key industrial fuels.
The Rhine River in Europe, vital for transporting fuel & goods, is running into some trouble. Water levels in a part of the river (Kaub chokepoint) are the lowest they've been in 30 years. That's not good because if the water's too low, the big boats (barges) can't get through.
Low water levels halted the barges last summer & may happen again without adequate rainfall. This impacts the delivery of critical goods (heating oil fuel)
Barges moving heating oil fuel from Rotterdam saw their cargo loads nearly cut in half from 2000 to 1200 tons within a week. Less water and harder access mean using barges is getting more expensive.
So a river that's too dry for boats to pass through properly could cause many problems with getting goods around Europe & might even make things more expensive. The inflation battle isn't over in Europe.
Now for those keeping an eye on inflation. As gasoline prices rise in tandem with crude oil, it inevitably drives up the price of pretty much everything. Diesel demand reflects the overall economy's well-being but has fluctuated throughout this year.
If there continues to be poor economic data from the US, China, and the EU, we could very well be starring down the barrel of a recession (pun intended ).
This is why limit the current price ceiling to the high $80s for crude oil.
The strength of crude has reached the upper limit of our forecast range and is still within the range of $72 to $87.
If it breaches $88, it may reach $95 and have a greater impact on refined products. However, concerns about a recession will likely keep a limit on the price for now.
The long-term impact of refinery shutdowns over the past 3 years and the current state of inventories is worth noting. If a recession hits and refinery runs dip, rebuilding inventories will be a severe challenge unless demand drops off a cliff.
There's a catch-22; central banks are trying to cause that drop by hiking interest rates. The downside is that these higher rates can deter drilling and exploration for new oil and gas, further compounding the problem down the line.
This is a vicious cycle. Destroying your economy to tackle inflation is like cutting off your arm because a paper cut is not something I would recommend.
I expect Brent will trade between $72 and $88 per barrel until Q4. After that, don't be surprised if it creeps close to the $90 mark.
As outlined in my blog I published on August 5th 2023
Brent Crude just gave my first buy signal since March 2022TECHNICALS:
We’re looking at the daily chart of Brent Crude oil.
We can see since March 2022, the price has indeed tanked from $136 down to $71.
During that time, we can see it’s formed a large Descending Triangle pattern.
This is generally a pattern which also forms what looks like a falling triangle.
The selling is stronger than the buying. And this is what brings the price down.
The $71 price however, is the crucial support (floor level) that’s been holding since 2021.
Each time it touches this level, the price tends to bounce back up.
Recently, the Brent Crude price has broken up and out of the Descending Triangle. This tells me the buyers are back and so is demand for the market.
The first target will be half way between the Descending Triangle’s high at $100.
Once we break that psychological $100 mark, I’ll be sure to send you the next prediction for Brent Crude.
FUNDAMENTALS:
It’s been a long and depressing time for the black gold commodity.
We’ve seen the price drop from $135 down to $71.00, over the last two years.
But now, Brent Crude is stealing the limelight.
With the impending oil shortages to the soaring global demand – the trend is finally changing.
In this article, we’ll go through the three main reasons why I expect Brent
Crude to rally back to its $100 mark.
Reason #1: The big shortage of oil
A key driver of why Brent Crude is ready to rally, is due to the recent prediction by the International Energy Administration (IEA).
They have stated there is an imminent oil shortage.
In fact, the IEA has warned the shortage in oil will materialize in the second half of 2023.
We could see demand potentially outpace supply by around 2 million barrels a day.
Also, Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s biggest crude exporter, has said it will prolong its reduction in oil production by 1 million barrels per day into August 2023.
This extension has followed from their sudden decision to reduce an additional million bpd for July.
Then we have Russia and Algeria who will also lower their August output and export levels by 500,000 bpd and 20,000 bpd.
And so, based on this, we’ve seen oil prices rise by over 5.29%.
This scenario leads me to believe oil prices are likely to climb for the following reasons:
1. Supply Disruption
First, with Saudi Arabia deciding to cut production, they are limiting the amount of oil available in the market.
When there is a lower supply, there is a ride in demand. And this puts upward pressure on oil prices.
2. OPEC Influence on other members
We know Saudi Arabia is a leading member of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries).
And when they make a decision, this often sways other global oil markets to follow along.
This can result in other OPEC+ members to decide to cut their production.
And this lower supply, and increased demand will help increase the price of oil.
Reason #2: Goldman Sachs makes its prediction
Goldman Sachs has also spoken.
It has lifted its forecast for Brent to $95 a barrel, by the end of the year.
And raised its price prediction to $100 for 2024, based on the oil output change.
Brent to stall at trend of lower highs?Brent - 24h expiry
Daily signals are bearish.
Trend line resistance is located at 76.60.
50 1day EMA is at 76.35.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look to Sell at 76.39 (stop at 77.39)
Our profit targets will be 73.89 and 73.39
Resistance: 75.90 / 76.40 / 77.34
Support: 75.20 / 74.80 / 74.40
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry
A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears.
Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral.
Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
We look to buy dips.
The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns.
We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13)
Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13
Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00
Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
UKOILThis is an update from the last time we took a trade on oil. Our approach was wrong, impatient and too easy, this time we have gone in with refinement and it has paid off.
- Pressure from the demand was very high
- retest of sensitive area
- break down of strength
- impulsive candle
This is to show that every time you refine your strategy you add to the skill so stay working on it and making it better, it is YOURS so only you can put in the work.