Crude Oil (ICE) Brent - "Big-picture" Bullish!Crude Oil (ICE) Brent - "Big-picture" Bullish!
A proportional countertrend retreat should set the stage for the next leg of the advance.
It's way too early to get a read on a potential shape for Supercycle wave (b) , but it should last for years and potentially retrace as much as 90%-105% of the wave (a) decline.
Stay tuned!
Brentlong
Brent: Parking Assistant 🚗Beep beep, beepbeepbeep, beebeepbeepbeepbeeeeeep
Brent seems to have afforded a parking assistant, judging by the neat way in which it has entered our white zone between $106.12 and $99.47 to finish wave c in blue and wave (B) in white. We expect it to turn around soon and to head for the next parking lot above $114.74, the green zone between $117.78 and $133.52. After Brent has completed wave B in green and wave (C) in white there, it should turn again and home in on the support at $97.56.
UKOil Brent LONG - Buy Entry - H4 ChartUKOil Brent LONG - Buy Entry - H4 Chart
Buy @ Market
Symbol: UKOil Brent
Timeframe: H4
Type: BUY
Entry Price: Buy @ Market
TP - Major Resistance @ 121.460
TP - Major Resistance @ 115.075
Major Support @ 106.786
Major Support @ 105.385
Brent Buy signal Brent has new support zone, This time it has big chance to reach $100. First target is $85 resistance. A lot of interesting things are waiting for us ahead!
BRENT CRUDE OIL BULISH PATTERNBRENT Crude Oil opened with a bullish gap yesterday after the weekend, but it managed to cover it during the trading day and to revert back in long direction, although not managing to reach the levels of yesterday's open.
The Upper and the Lower Band of the Bollinger Bands are moving closer together, which is an indicator that the BRENT had lost some of it's initial volatility, which may present a good point of entry due to shrinking spread. The 9 day Moving Average has crossed the 20 day Moving average, and the histogram of the MACD is increasing, which is an indicator for bullish traders to enter.
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Which target do we look at for Brent ? According to Ichimoku, we're definitely bullish on long term.
Prices are perfectly supported by Daily Tenkan during their ascent.
With a Fibonacci Extension, I think that $92 is a probable target to look at. If this one breaks, we could look at the 1.618 Extension, at $109.9. Will depend on the evolution of the situation in Ukraine.
A possible fundamental bearish news could be that the de-escalation leads to a decrease in the attractiveness of black gold and produces a pull-back in prices, towards the Kijun Daily as first support.
What do you think friends ?
Brent Crude Prices May Soon Return to $80After a drop to $69.28 per barrel Brent crude prices quickly rebounded to the upside on Wednesday touching $74.57. And there are several fundamental and technical reasons for it.First, gas prices in Europe skyrocketed to $180 per MWh for ICE Dutch TTF January gas futures on Tuesday, or by 22.7% in a single day. This lift off of gas prices also pushed crude prices up as high gas prices are forcing consumers to move to alternative fuels, including various petroleum products.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that record high gas prices would increase oil demand by 500,000 bpd throughout Q1 2022, while the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported weekly crude stocks in the United States dropped by 3.67 million barrels, well above expected 2.63 million. Distillate stocks were down by 849,000 barrels and gasoline inventories were up by 3.7 million barrels.
According to the forecasts the Energy information Administration (EIA) is expected to officially report crude oil inventories to be down by 2.750 barrels.
Technically, Brent crude prices are within the ABC correction, where the decline from $86.70 per barrel to $65.72 created wave A. Now we have wave B that is usually in a form of a zigzag. The first part of this zigzag was the rise of Brent crude prices from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel. The second part strongly correlates with the first one and could be at 61.8% of its length or the same as the first one.
Mathematically that would mean a potential for Brent crude prices to recover to $76.06 per barrel, or even to $80.26 per barrel. However, the correction might not be over yet as Brent crude prices haven’t fell below 61.8% of the previous rise from $65.72 to $76.70 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs oil may hit $100 per barrel over the next two years as the demand for oil continues to grow above existing record levels. However, a moderate expectation from Goldman Sachs suggests that average crude prices are likely to remain around $85 per barrel by the end of 2023.
Crude Oil Is Close to Setting New HighsCrude prices continue their steady rise as the Brent crude benchmark is trading close to $77.40 per barrel. The July high is at $77.84 per barrel, well within arm’s reach. The rise in crude prices continues for the fourth consecutive day as investors digest the recent damages to the U.S. oil industry caused by two recent hurricanes.
The damages were confirmed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data that showed a decline of crude reserves to 414 million barrels, a record low since October 2018. This week EIA recorded a drop of oil reserves by 3.5 million barrels or 0.8%, and this is the seventh week of declines in the row.
As I said before, Brent crude oil has a potential to rise to $82 per barrel if we consider the height of the downward channel to be the price that has been broken through recently. A decline of prices to $73.26 per barrel was just a test of the new support level that was formerly a resistance level.
So, we may say that further hikes in prices is quite possible even if prices are at record highs for several months. However, we may have a short-term correction to the area of $76.50-76.60 per barrel, where the support level of the upward trend from September 21 is located.
Anyway, any correction now is a good chance to open buy positions. Moreover, if we look at the monthly timeframe we may find a “triple tweezers” candlestick pattern at $65-67 per barrel. Such a pattern indicates a high possibility for the bullish trend to continue. Oil may surge to $90 a barrel if the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere proves colder than normal, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Tightening gas supplies in Europe will elevate demand for oil as an alternative at a time when global crude output is constrained, Currie said during a Bloomberg Television interview on Wednesday. Post-hurricane disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico were among the worldwide factors he cited.
Backer Hughes oil rigs count report may affect crude prices later on Friday after the company has reported active rigs at 512 including oil rigs at 411 units as of September 17.
Brent to reach $85?I've been bullish on FX_IDC:USDBRO ever since it traded above its 200EMA. Bought few contracts, rode the trend from $43 to $69.
Last week Brent closed above $71, looking back, this was/is an area of value. Now that the price is above $71, I'm bullish once again, targeting the $85 region, with a stop below the 50EMA.
UK Oil Buy Trade SetupHi Traders
Brent /UK Oil (H4 Timeframe)
A high probability, entry to go LONG has formed @ 65.51 after the market found support @ 65.03. Only the downward break of 65.03 would cancel this bullish scenario.
Trade details:
Entry: 65.51
Stop loss: 65.03
Take profit 1: 67.83
Take profit 2: 69.59
Take profit 3: 72.46
Score: 10
Strategy: Bullish wave LL TF
Brent oil 4h+Tendency:
Upward, to take (63.30) & (66.10)
+Retest:
But in the yellow zone (triangle) will make retest till 59.60
+Contrary:
Stabilize under 59.30 will get 56.60 & 55
Brent - BullRunPotential correction at fibb 61.8%
After correction price can still follow the trend
Trend: UP
Ichimoku: UP
Stoch: After overbought
for more: www.invesery.com
Last news:
vesting.com -- Crude oil prices weakened Thursday amid concerns about fuel demand as the pandemic continues after U.S. inventories posted an unexpected rise last week.
By 9:45 AM ET (1445 GMT), U.S. Crude futures were down 0.6% at $52.97 a barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.5% at $55.79 a barrel.
U.S. Gasoline RBOB Futures were down 0.8% at $1.5315 a gallon.
Data released late Wednesdy by the industry group, the American Petroleum Institute showed that {{8849|U.S. crcrude oil inventories rose 2.6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 15, against expectations for a 300,000-barrel draw in forecasts prepared by Investing.com.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to release its official weekly inventory report on Friday, later than usual due to Monday’s holiday. If these numbers show a similar crude oil build, it would be the first since early December.
Weighing on the market is the fear that the surge of Covid-19 cases is having a direct impact on the demand for crude oil, not only in the U.S. but also around the globe.
Earlier this week the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based autonomous intergovernmental organization, revised lower its global demand estimates for the year by 300,000 barrels a day as a result of a fresh wave of lockdowns, particularly in China, the largest importer of crude in the world.
“The most recent has been in Beijing, specifically the Daxing district, which has affected around 1.6m people,” said analysts at ING, in a research note. “The government will be keen to get any outbreaks under control, particularly with the Chinese New Year fast approaching.”
On the supply side, newly inaugurated President Joe Biden has announced his decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline project, which would have carried more than 800,000 barrels a day of crude from Alberta’s oil sands in Canada as far south as the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Additionally, ING noted that Shell (LON:RDSa) has lifted force majeure on exports of Forcados crude from Nigeria, a measure which had been in place since Jan. 14, after the pipeline to the Forcados oil terminal was shut due to a leak.
Forming a Long position in Brent on the correctionMany are expecting a correction in BCOUSD after impulse 5 waves.
One way of playing Long is to place Limit Buy orders at the potential entry points.
Selling January Put options with strikes 44 and 46 could be a viable alternative.
It makes sense to set the amounts of each option as 50% of total position.
What if correction won't happen or strike levels won't be reached (options excercised out of the money) ?
Then we are left with premiums for the sold options. Some 1.35% and 2.15% of the strike prices respectively.