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Brentoil

Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10
CRUDE OIL CAN FURTHER TUMBLE BELOW $80Check out the trade plan for USTCBUSD today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you! Oil faked a bullish breakout on the hourly minor trend formed and here we can clearly witness a failed breakout on the key level highlighted. This reversal is on the 4th impulse hinting us another minor trend to happen to the downside with respect to a bear flag breakout. Here I expect the price to revisit back another important low we have been moving close to or below $80 in the next few days.
TVC:USOILShort
by traderchamp_
WTI: Crude oil prices are impacted by a dimming demand outlook.Despite limiting its highest daily gains in a week, WTI crude oil remains in a flat trend. US government representatives have stated that they are prepared to release 15 million barrels of oil from SPR. In contrast to repurchasing shares and paying dividends, according to Biden, oil firms should increase output and lower gasoline costs. He said, “My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging,” Biden said. “You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.” Since the beginning of the year, the White House has released approximately 165 million barrels of petroleum from the reserve, out of a total estimated to be over 180 million. This means the demand is diminishing. However, if price manages to trade, break and close above 86.55 the setups would be invalidated making the bulls take charge.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by TradeyMarkets
2
oil analysis inputs most welcomeoil on one hand is showing sighs of weakness and on the other hand is showing that there is a last leg of the wave pending if oil goes with the wave theory it can seriously ruin the stock market party it has also fallen from a rectangle pattern to the down side where it can fall towards levels of 70 but if the last leg of the wave theory is pending it may go towards 120 to 140 levels which can hurt especially the Indian economy and the rupee as oil production is being cut it supports higher levels as until there is more supply the prices are not going to fall. demand cannot die or slow as particularly talking about india economy needs oil move there goods these are uncertain times and in uncertain times there are maximum oppurtunities hope to take the right trades
TVC:UKOIL
by Tradegainer
#BRENT update - Breakout confirmed, goes to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Brent crude price was squeezed in a descending triangle, and a breakout from the triangle was expected, so it happened as seen on the chart 🔔 Brent crude price is traded at $91 trying to hit the key resistance of $91.60 up ahead. 🔔 I do anticipate the price to slow down a bit when reaching the aforementioned resistance, however the path to $101 stays clear. 🔔 Opec+ will cut production by 1M, which is 3.4% of the current daily production volume. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
1
USOIL WILL CONTINUE THE BEARISH MOMENTUM AND REVISIT $64 SUPPORTCheck out the trade plan for USOIL today based on the technical analysis. Hope this analysis is useful, make sure to hit the thumbs and also follow my tradingview profile for future updates. Thank you! USOIL formed a pullback after the breakout happened on Key Level 1. Here I am expecting another respected price action and a swing down to revisit and complete the structure with the level at the $64 supported area.
TVC:USOILShort
by traderchamp_
Brent: Hang on! 🐻Bulls and bears are competing for preeminence, and both of them have gained the upper hand now and then. In the long run, we expect the bears to win this battle, though, and to drag Brent to the green zone between $77.10 and $42.16, where it should finish wave III in pink. After a short countermovement to complete wave IV in pink, Brent should enter the blue zone between $66.48 and $59.58, which is enclosed in the green zone and where wave V in pink and wave 3 in blue should end. Another countermovement should then lead Brent upwards again before it should dive into the green zone once more to finally conclude the overarching downwards movement. However, there is a 32% chance that the bulls could be stronger and drag Brent above the resistance at $95.76, which would then result in a detour until the next mart at $105.42 before the bears can take charge again.
TVC:UKOIL
by MarketIntel
Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ Analyze!!!Brent Crude ⛽️ Oil ⛽️ has passed the main wave W by Zigzag structure (5-3-5). Oil could finish Expanding Flat (3-3-5) or Main wave X at 138.03$ . Of course, the War can change my Scenario, but I don't expect Oil to break 177$ . I expect the Brent Crude Oil to go DOWN at least to the upper line of Descending Channe & Support Zone . Brent Crude Oil Analyze ( USDBRO ) Timeframe Monthly (Log Scale) 🔴 Resistance Zones 🔴 & 🟢 Support Zone 🟢 that we have in front of Brent Crude ⛽️Oil⛽️ . 🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 147$ until 135$ 🔴 Resistance Zone 🔴: 178$ until 159$ 🟢 Support Zone 🟢: 88.6$ until 83.3$ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
FX_IDC:USDBRO
by pejman_zwin
6
Crude Oil Inflation SpiralWith crude oil prices declining, one might expect that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is working and that perhaps a pivot may be on the horizon. However, if we dig deeper, charts are sending warning signs that perhaps crude oil prices, and inflation in general, might remain elevated for much longer than expected. The chart above is a monthly chart of Brent Crude Oil adjusted in price by the Japanese Yen. In the chart, we see what appears to be a double top. However, unlike during the Great Recession, in the current situation, the price of crude oil has fallen much less quickly after peaking. Compare the two charts below. When priced in Japanese Yen, crude oil is 80% higher today than where it was after peaking in 2008 (the red ghost bars below show the 2008 price action). In other words, crude oil prices have declined much slower after their current peak than after their peak in 2008. Ominously, a bull pennant appears on the monthly chart. Although I do not have Fibonacci levels applied to this chart, the bull pennant structure is a perfect golden ratio retracement. Such a perfect bull pennant pattern could suggest that crude oil prices (adjusted in Japanese Yen) may break above resistance and continue higher, rather than decline at all. Why might this be happening? The Bank of Japan continues to maintain negative interest rates. Negative interest rates is just an obfuscated way of saying it continues to produce more and more money. Negative interest rates result in limitless money being produced through credit. Negative interest rates therefore cause money to become less and less scarce over time. Less scarcity of money always ultimately results in inflation. This continued monetary easing in turn weakens the Yen relative to currencies of countries with higher interest rates, especially the rapidly strengthening U.S. dollar. Since Japan is too highly indebted to hike interest rates at all, let alone at the pace that the U.S. Federal Reserve is hiking rates, Japan is facing a crisis whereby the value of its currency is rapidly weakening. Instead of hiking interest rates to mitigate its weakening currency, the Bank of Japan has chosen to sell U.S. Treasuries to increase its supply of dollars, and to buy Yen with those dollars. While this action may help Japan avert an energy shortage by providing the U.S. dollars needed to ensure a steady flow of crude oil, by increasing its supply of U.S. dollars, Japan also perpetuates commodity inflation. More supply of U.S. dollars keeps crude oil, which is priced in U.S. dollars, higher for longer. The more U.S. Treasuries Japan sells, the more U.S. dollars it will have to continue paying high crude oil prices, which in turn keeps inflation higher for longer, which in turn causes the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike rates more for even longer to bring commodity inflation down. Since the Bank of Japan is unable to hike rates the Yen in turn slides further. This negative feedback loop can spiral into a monetary and economic crisis if unabated. How bad could the situation get? To find the answer to this question, we can examine the yearly chart for Brent Crude Oil. Below is the yearly chart. Notice that the Stochastic RSI is indicating that Brent Crude Oil prices have strong upward momentum on the yearly chart. When oscillators push strongly higher on the yearly timeframe, this can lead to a prolonged period of sustained higher prices. The best way to hypothesize a potential peak is to use Fibonacci extensions on the yearly chart. If commodity inflation persists, then price may undergo Fibonacci extension on the yearly chart. This process will be slow and insidious with periods of commodity prices coming down as they retrace on lower timeframes, such that bull rallies trap unsuspecting market participants who believe that the era of limitless monetary easing will soon return. Monetary easing cannot return or else the commodity inflation spiral worsens. Indeed, spiraling inflation puts central banks in a Catch-22 whereby any action they can take results in economic decline. Only time will tell how this Catch-22 will end, but I will leave you with one final chart, shown below. This chart shows a regression channel that measures how far above or below its mean crude oil is currently priced when compared to its entire 160-year price history. What's alarming is that despite the rapid rise in crude oil prices, we are merely just now reach the mean (red line). If history repeats itself, price could double, triple or more from current levels in the years to come...
TVC:UKOIL
by SpyMasterTrades
7