Brent Oil in trading range, low volumeMOEX:BR1! Brent Oil Futures has been in a trading range since March of 2022 on the daily chart forming a rectangle pattern. The support is found at $96.00 and the resistance at $124.00.
A close above $127.00 will confirm the pattern's breakout, with a target price of $152.00.
A close below $90.20 will confirm the pattern's breakout, with a price target of $73.30. Note that not every price target is met.
$BR1! has been trading below the 100 EMA since the first week of July of 2022.
It is essential to observe the low trading volume since the month of March. A low volume after an uptrend could indicate that the trend is ending, and a reversal might start.
Brentoil
Brent: You Can Do It!On its way down, Brent got stuck at the support line at $97.56. However, we expect it to struggle through and to make it into the blue zone between $94.50 and $89.73, where it should finish wave 5 in blue and wave a in turquoise. Then, Brent should move upwards, crossing even the resistance at $107.64, above which it should complete wave b in turquoise. Afterwards, Brent should resume the downwards movement and drop back below $107.64 as well as below $97.56.
India tricks the West, Strong dollar & China imports russian oilOil top might be in for this year.
Reasons:
1. Market adjustment mechanisms are underway on the commodity markets, ensuring that Russian oil, which is spurned by the West, once again finds its buyers (india, china). This in turn causes these countries to demand less Brent or WTI oil, which again depresses prices. India and China are buying significantly more crude oil from Russia, Europe less, which means there is a balancing out taking place on the world markets with the new tanker routes and transportation routes.
2. India recently bought more oil from Russia than ever before, according to a recent report by the Finnish Energy and Clean Air Research Center. "A significant portion of the crude is re-exported as refined oil products, including to the U.S. and Europe, an important loophole to close," the Finnish analysts warned. Since new sanctions measures are very unlikely, the alignment process between Russian oil and Brent and WTI crudes is likely to continue.
3. Dollar price, interest hikes & recession fears by FED. The strong dollar is also acting as an additional burden on the oil market. This is because commodities such as oil are traded in dollars. If you read between the lines of the FED, they're doing their best to crush commodity and oil prices to crush long-speculators on comm and oil.
4. Fear of new lockdowns in China. Chinese head of state Xi Jinping nevertheless only recently announced that he would stick to the strict zero-covid strategy. This is fueling fears of new lockdowns in China = downside risk for oil demand in China, probably a small impact, since the gov in China is trying its best to avoid a greater corona outbreak in large cities to stabilise eco. situation.
5. bitcoin/tradional markets are sometimes seen as counterparts to oil. Bitcoin, despite very bad news (CPI increased) and being a risk asset, has not moved much further down in price, showing that risky assets have more or less found their bottom while oil bulls have an empty tank.
Opinion: I see the price cooling down slowly rather than continuing to climb, probably going towards 70-60$ in the next 6-10 months.
! This is not an investment advise! Do your own research! This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell oil shares and this is NOT a recommendation to short or to long oil!
A complete review of Brent oil with Elliott styleConsidering that oil left its long-term correction process on April 20, 2022; It started an increasing and powerful process and increasing tensions and war made this process more powerful.
By carefully examining this trend, it can be said that this trend ended in 5 waves; And now, with the situation balancing a little, the stagnation, the increase in oil production, and at the same time the permission of Venezuela to enter the oil market; The price has entered price correction. It should be expected that this price correction will be in the form of a wave (ABC).
Considering the price movement in the lower time frame, it can be expected that wave A will be formed in the form of 5 waves.
I believe; Currently, wave 1 is being completed, so we have to wait for wave 2 to be created.
If the end of wave 2 is 115; This analysis is complete and you can make the most of the other waves shown.
It should be considered that with the price reaching the range of 36-39.5 in the consolidation of the higher time frame, this whole movement can be considered as wave 1 and 2.
Tip: We have to see how the trend will be formed along the downward path; It is possible that this entire decline in price can be shown in the higher consolidation of an A wave.
In any case, upon reaching the price range of 36 to 39.5, the trend should be re-examined and a new analysis should be presented.
This analysis is prepared with an economic perspective; But from a human point of view, I am very sorry for the war and I sincerely sympathize with Ukraine.
what is your opinion ?
(be profitable)
Oil Futures Settle Lower On Demand WorriesDespite concerns about a potential recession, oil prices were still around $114 a barrel today as supply concerns outweighed concerns about a potential decline in demand. In the latest developments, workers in Norway went on strike, which is expected to cut the country's oil production by around 130,000 barrels a day.
Despite the global economic recovery, oil prices are still up more than 50% this year as the conflict in Ukraine and the lack of supply from other producers such as Russia have raised concerns about the supply of oil. OPEC+ has also been struggling to boost its production due to various factors. In addition, the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy has also triggered a sell-off in commodities.
Investors are also closely monitoring the situation in China, where the country is still experiencing sporadic outbreaks of the virus.
Brent & Natural Gas PricesBrent Crude is around $111.36, as investors grew concerned about a potential global recession and the tight supply of crude. Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting OPEC Countries showed that its output fell by about 100,000 barrels per day in June.
Libya's oil exports have dropped to between 365 and 409 thousand barrels per day, which is about 865 thousand barrels below the level that was normal. Also, a planned strike in Norway will reduce the country's oil production by about 130 thousand barrels per day. Despite the recent rise in oil prices, the market is still expected to remain weak in the coming months due to the global economy and the lack of supply.
Natural gas prices in Europe started July at around 150, which is a level not seen since early March. The rising prices are expected to continue due to the tight supply of gas. A strike by workers in Norway this week is also expected to reduce the country's gas output by around 292,000 barrels per day. This could threaten the European Union's efforts to increase its storage capacity.
Due to the reduction in Russian gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline, Germany, which is the EU's largest economy, has enacted the second phase of its emergency gas plan. It involves increasing the monitoring of the market and the restart of coal-fired power plants.
US Oil Battles With 2011 HighThe price of US Oil has not consistently traded above the May 2011 high at $114.79
since the high was formed as price has not remained above this level.
Price did move above this resistance in March, May, and June, but the sellers forced
price back down again.
We have a major support level below price in the form of the $100 round number,
which may prevent price from declining further.
So far this month, the candle is bullish, but this could change as we are only a few
days into the month. If the buyers can gather enough momentum, we should see
another attempt above resistance.
There is nothing to do now except wait for a clear trend direction to form. Trying to
go long now could see your position close out for a loss if price reverses sharply at
resistance again.
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Caps on russian oil is likely to come Insider: G-7 talks with India and China on oil price brake positive
G-7 talks with India and China on a plan to cap the price of Russian oil have been positive, according to an insider. The two buyer nations have incentives to comply, a person familiar with the discussions says. A cap on the price has not yet been set, he said. However, it would have to be high enough for Russia to continue producing anyway. Currently, Russian oil sells at discounts of between $30 and $40 per barrel (159 liters) compared to market prices of up to $120 per barrel. Source: Welt Zeitung
What impact would the price cap have on prices in Germany and the other G7 countries?
In the ideal case, oil prices would fall; in the less good case, at least they would not rise any further. However, precise forecasts are difficult to make. The petroleum industry association Fuels und Energie already explained in the discussion about the EU oil embargo that market and price developments depend on many factors, including the dollar exchange rate and decisions by the major producing countries. Source: n-tv
Opinion: I see the price cooling down slowly rather than continuing to climb, probably going towards 70$ in the next 6-10 months. To force russia to sell all its oil below market price, will make most countries of the world (which are not part of G7) to buy it off for a small price, leading to an overall relaxation of the oil market price. Also OPEC is ramping up efforts to increase output for the next months! This is not an investment advise! Do your own research! This is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell oil shares and this is NOT a recommendation to short or to long oil!
ADVANCED SETUP ON USOIL !!!The chart above is for the USOIL symbol. Two important key resistances have been identified that can trigger the pullback, in which direction we are looking for the right point to enter.
I have identified two areas. The first of which is a bit risky, but second is much safer.
*Trade at your own risk, please.
XAUUSD 4H TA Result : +100 Pips ✅Just compare 2 previous analyzes of #Gold in the 4-hour timeframe , you will see how the price reacted to the level (OB+) and increased more than 100 Pips , that was so fast, the main reaction in the one-minute timeframe is more clear!
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 06.24.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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Brent: Knock, Knock!After it has knocked at the resistance line at $112.43 already twice, we expect Brent to rise above this mark and into the white zone between $113.88 and $123.14 to finish wave (2) in white. Afterwards, Brent should fall below the support lines at $104.67 and $97.56. There is a 28% chance, though, that Brent could soar through the white zone and climb above the resistance at $123.71 until the bottom of the pink zone between $133.80 and $137.40 first before moving downwards.
ExxonMobil Shooting Star PatternThe weekly candles for the oil and gas company, ExxonMobil, look quite bearish. This could be the start of a major decline. There is a shooting star pattern forming on the weekly chart, while the oscillators are trending down and while the daily EMA exp ribbon and daily trend lines breaking down. Although anything can happen, it is looking like a major bearish reversal is occurring. It's sad that just last week all the "expert analysts" at CNBC were making strong bullish calls about energy stocks, citing "free cash flow" and numerous other reasons to buy them, all the while the charts are showing a topping pattern in energy and commodities. This is usually when tops form - when there is no bearish sentiment among anyone, and when strong hands are selling to weak hands. At least charts do not lie, and thanks to @TradingView anyone can access them alongside a plethora of crowd-sourced scripts and indicators.
OIL WONT BE COMING DOWN ANYTIME SOONThe war in Ukraine caused a chain reaction in lifting energy and commodity prices, following the decision of the West to reduce and eventually ban Russian imports of crude oil, natural gas, coal and a number of other raw materials. As a result of this, there continues to be a shortage in oil supply in the global markets. The fact that there is underinvestment in this sector and falling inventories continue to allude to a tighter market in general. Throw in the fact that Russia supplies are being phased out with little to no immediate substitutes, the tighter market outlook is going to stay for longer. The capacity shortage and the fact that OPEC+ is also not doing much more than they are now isn't going to help alleviate sentiment on that front either.
Significantly higher prices of energy and raw materials caused a rise in prices of final products that contributed to the second cause of rising inflation – cost-push inflation, while the strong rise in prices, accompanied by persisting supply disruptions, resulted in the shortage of products that pushed their prices higher and pointed to the third cause of strong prices growth – demand-pull inflation. This sparked a rise in food prices, electricity and many other essential items that contributed to the enormous increase in the cost of living, further pressuring households and businesses.
The West is working with Venezuela and Iran to bring back their oil to the global markets to boost supply but after Iran turned off 27 cameras of the International Atomic Bomb Agency, which monitors compliance of uranium-rich countries to a peaceful application of nuclear energy to promote peace, health and prosperity, it looks unlikely that a deal with Iran will be reached soon.
Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and other major banks forecast that oil will likely break its all-time high price of $127 per barrel on 8th March, 2022 and rise towards $135 per barrel. So brace yourselves folks as we ride this oil roller coaster.
Gas prices to rise 5-10%Due to the lack of supply from the OPEC and the US' production slowdown and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the prices of gas have increased significantly.
In the next couple of weeks, the prices of gas are expected to increase by 5-10%. This will continue to increase throughout the summer of 2022. China's demand for crude oil is expected to rise as the Covid Lockdowns come to an end.
Crude Oil Prices are likely to remain above $115 for the rest of the year.