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$UKOIL - Conflicts, COVID, Sanctions, Triangle patternHi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Conflicts, military operations, sanctions, COVID seem to be the headlines of 2022 🔔 The bursts of conflicts globally looks so intense that they might be the main drivers of oil prices. 🔔 I really don't think that EU will embargo Russian oil but if they really do, BRENT will hop to $160 easy, which according to the chart here is very possible. 🔔 For now, I'm expecting a slight correction here with a potential on a jump to $123. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
Descending Broadening WedgeBrent Crude Oil has fallen quite far from its yearly high of $135. That was almost two months ago. Ever since the price crashed down to $100 in less than two weeks from the high, the price has been swinging very nicely between Fibonacci levels. I had done some analysis of that in a previous post. However, today I will be analysing two chart patterns that have formed. The first that has already broken out is a flag. This is a specific chart pattern that forms after there has been a quick steep price rise (pole) and then a consolidation period (flag). The second is a descending broadening wedge. Ideally from my learning, you want the flag patterns and any chart patterns to be on the daily timeframe. That is how I learnt it, I have had some success trading chart patterns on a short timeframe and I have largely seen other people do the same. However, I don’t know if this is just luck or actual trading. So, I will still use them just for educational purposes so that you may know what would be the case if it was on the daily or weekly frame. The flag pattern has already broken out so there’s no point in analysing it apart from getting a price target: Difference between bottom of pole ($99.938) to the top ($107.086) = $7.148 * 0.46 (percentage meeting price target) = $3.28 Add that to the bottom of the flag ($106.003) = $109.29. The Flag pattern has already broken out and reached its price target. So the main focus will be the Descending Broadening Wedge. Breakeven Failure Rate for upward breakouts: 18% Average Rise: 32% Throwback Rate: 62% The bottom of the pattern has found support at the 0.62 Fibonacci level. The price, ideally, should touch (not cut) the trendlines five or more times. A good split between the two trendiness. That isn’t really the case here. However, the volume has been trending upwards. This is of course ideal. The price target for this pattern is quite simple for upward breakouts, it's just the peak. So that would be $110.632. This trade may be a quick one, however. The pattern has formed between two Fibonacci levels so the price may rebound once it hits the upper level. Also, as you can see from the Stochastic RSI (upper Indicator on the bottom) a bullish cross over has emerged. Also, the MACD (lower indicator on the bottom) could possibly be closing in on a bullish cross over. Well, this is a bit embarrassing because by the time I finished my analysis the pattern broke out and reached its price target haha.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by BlackbearTrader
Brent Falls Below $100, Erasing Ukraine War GainsCrude prices have erased most gains since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Lockdowns in China weigh on demand expectations. China’s financial hub Shanghai reported a record more than 25,000 new infections during the weekend. POSSIBLE OIL TRADING STRATEGY: IF YOU ARE BIG RISK TAKER ON DAILY CHART :TAKE THE TREND! DONCHIAN 20,25and30 has been broken:Also the important pychological level and Golden Number 100! First target for Short seller could be 94,86,74 and 64 USD. If You are Intraday Trader, Ue VWAP-Power and trade that blackgold only below. Trail your top or close each position before the Day-Close. But always remember: Long Termwe will see again 200-250USD in Oil, but as Traders important i right now and not what will be happened in 2,6or 12 Months. Live today to trade better tommorrow. Your capital is the blood of your trading business. Oil prices dipped by more than 4% early on Monday, with Brent falling below $100 a barrel, as COVID-related lockdowns in China weighed on demand expectations, while the coordinated massive release from oil reserves eased fears of supply shortages. As of 8:05 a.m. ET on Monday, WTI Crude was down by 4.80% at $93.59, and Brent Crude was trading down by 4.50% at $98.18. Short selling is un-American. It is done by rogues, thieves, and especially pessimists, who are, of course, the worst of the lot. It is a terrible, terrible thing and must be stopped in our lifetime. We should halt it, restrict it, or at the very least revile those who make it their vocation. The above sentiments are sadly not imaginary or rare. Rather, they genuinely reflect much of the investing public’s view of short selling. In fact, attacks have included proposals to make short selling harder (the existing “uptick rule” already makes it hard), or to make it impossible by banning it outright (presumably along with pessimism itself, and perhaps the infield fly rule). These criticisms and draconian proposals all increase in volume and seriousness when the stock market goes through a tough time. At such times many claim short sellers are the cause of the market’s decline. Finally, at the low point for stock prices, many members of Congress invariably reexamine whether shorting should be allowed, or more simply, consider just legislating that the Dow go up 50 points a day. Of course, the media does not help. A rising stock market is a good thing for ratings and circulation. This country is, of course, biased toward rooting for stocks to go up, and people watch and read more about this stuff when it is fun (i.e., going up). Thus, short sellers, with their gloomy attitude, are not generally media friendly. In fact, even some pro-free enterprise media outlets sometimes throw away their laissez faire stance when it comes to short selling, particularly “in times of crisis” (defined as an overvalued market getting a bit less overvalued). Apparently, they have some confusion regarding the difference between supporting a free capital market versus supporting an expensive one. Well, to sum up the theme of this foreword, opponents of short selling are not merely wrong. They are incredibly wrong, both factually and morally. Short sellers are among the heroes of capitalism and we owe them our thanks not our opprobrium. The opponents of short selling are either exceptionally economically challenged, or run to a natural tendency to ban anything they do not like. There’s a word for the political system favored by people like that and it is not democracy (but does rhyme with Motalitarianism). Oil prices have now erased most of their gains since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, after a month and a half of extremely volatile trading in which market participants have trimmed their positions in the crude oil futures. Oil hasn’t been this low since the middle of March. Early on Monday, the continued lockdowns in China—which is fighting its worst outbreak in two years with its zero-COVID policy—were still a source of concern for the oil market, which is apprehensive of the outlook on demand in the world’s biggest crude oil importer. China’s financial hub Shanghai reported a record more than 25,000 new infections during the weekend. One of China’s wealthiest cities, with 26 million residents, has been under lockdown for more than a week under the Chinese “zero-COVID” policy, which could weigh on fuel demand. Authorities started easing some restrictions on Monday, as residents became increasingly frustrated with the policy. “Weaker domestic demand suggests we should see refiners cutting operating rates, whilst there is also the potential that we see a pick-up in refined product exports from China in the short term,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said on Monday. Moreover, the weakening prompt time spreads in the crude oil futures structure suggest that the physical market is not as tight as what was perceived a few weeks ago. “There are also indications that the market is looking less tight. The physical market has seen further weakness recently, whilst the prompt ICE Brent time spread has come under significant pressure in recent weeks,” ING’s strategists added. Citi: Fears Of Oil Supply Shortage Are Exaggerated, But… Citi: Russian supply loss could be lower than feared. Citi's Ed Morse: COVID lockdowns in China help lower demand. The world will have more than enough oil in coming months according to Citigroup analysts. The world will have more than enough oil because the Russian supply loss could be lower than feared. But it will also have enough oil simply because demand growth could slow down with higher prices and COVID lockdowns in China, analysts at Citigroup say. “Even as Russian production slides and OPEC+ actually reduces total flows to markets, a slowdown in global growth is reducing oil demand growth, and the IEA release of 220mln barrels of oil between now and October point to market weakness and inventory builds ahead,” Citi analyst Edward Morse said in a note carried by Proactive Investors. Moreover, Citi believes that the fears of a loss of up to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil supply are exaggerated. “Of 1.9-m b/d of European seaborne exports of crude oil, around 900-k b/d is being pushed to other markets such as India or will likely stay in some European markets with limited access to non-Russian oil,” Citi’s analysts wrote. Therefore, the world will have more than enough oil in coming months, the analysts noted. “Without a deeper Russian cut, which is possible, the numbers add up to much more than enough oil,” according to Citi. Citi’s view is contrary to other analysts and investment banks which see severe constraints in oil supply. Commodities have room to soar by another 40 percent on top of the gains in recent months, as investors could pour more money into raw materials as a hedge against the highest inflation in 40 years, JPMorgan Chase & Co says. There is “absolutely” a supply problem in the oil sector, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. There are broad-based supply constraints in oil producers, particularly non-core OPEC, Currie said. Every producer except for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is producing less today than they were in 2020, he added. Throw in the Russian shock, and the supply constraints are the most severe in decades, since the 1970s, according to Currie. The record release of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) “is still insufficient to be able to deal with the scale of the problem,” he noted. FinalThoughts:THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND! AND ALWAYS USE STOPS!ALWAYS!
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
UKOIL potential for a bounce! | 8th April 2022Prices are approaching a pivot . We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 100.83 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 109.49 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci Projection . RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FX:UKOILSPOTLong
by FXCM
USOIL's Monthly Resistance is super strong and creating selloffUSOIL's monthly resistance is playing an important role in all time frames. Even on the higher timeframes, we can clearly see that the price got faked out by breaching the upside with a fake bull run. The following resistance is holding stronger against the bulls while we see strong selling pressure in the 110 price area. I have a decent expectation of a further decline in oil prices to create and revisit the level highlighted close to 75
TVC:USOILShort
by Profitlio_Trading
Daily Technical Analysis (Brent Oil)In the chart above, Brent Crude Oil has just broken downwards from the 0.38 Fibonacci level. The second red line from the top is another level of support that oil has broken out from. Also, the Stochastic RSI diverged (Top Blue Rectangle). Since these events have occurred, the price of oil has been decreasing. If oil carries ongoing downwards to the 0.5 Fibonacci level then we could see some good level of support, Stochastic RSI has also just diverged (Bottom Blue Rectangle). So, following this, the yellow line shows my price prediction. If oil carries on going down it could find some support at 0.5 and then rebound upwards. Then the price could find some resistance at the 0.38 level and if the buying power is strong enough the price could breakout upwards. If the buying power is not strong enough then oil could come back to the 0.5 level. Possibly even break through the 0.5 level, but that in opinion is not that likely.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by BlackbearTrader
BITCOIN 4H TA : 03.15.22 : $BTCThe Important support is in $ 37000 to $ 37700 range and important resistance (supply) zone is in the range of $ 39900 to $ 40700 , now we have to wait for price to determine its NEW trend . The last analysis is still valid unless proven otherwise . Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help. ⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ... 👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading 📅 15.MAR.22 ⚠️(DYOR) ❤️ If you apperciate my work , Please like and comment , It Keeps me motivated to do better ❤️
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
11