Top Reached for NowContrarian signals everywhere.
Russia is risking being cut off from the financial system.
This could essentially wipe out the bid for oil as then no one in their markets could access those bids. A large % of the oil market will go offline so I would think we could expect at least -30% decline.
Brentoil
UKOIL - SHORTFalse Breakout of Major Resistance Level. A Bearish Harmonic Pattern has been formed. Selling opportunity!
UKOIL - SHORT
ENTRY PRICE - 88.77
SL - 91.50
TP - 79.20
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Crude Prices Are Back to 2014Crude prices continue to rally as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $89.04 per barrel on Wednesday, almost erasing the plunge of crude prices since 2014.
Crude prices rose after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates rising fears over further supply tightening. The attack further escalated hostilities between the Iran-aligned group and a Saudi Arabian-led coalition.
Many analysts are upgrading their forecast for crude prices. Goldman Sachs expects Brent cured prices to hit $100 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022. Oil producers are lagging behind to satisfy the increasing demand, which also support prices.
If we look at crude prices 7-8 years ago, we may see a strong resistance at $94.50-95 per barrel and there are no significant resistance levels before that. U.S. crude inventories traditionally published on Wednesday this week will be released on Thursday as the United States celebrated Martin Luther King Day this Monday. According to the forecast crude inventories may fall by 1.367 million barrels on the previous week making it the eights in a row in terms of falling crude inventories.
Technically speaking the existing upward trend that started December 20 last year has a very steep angle that may mean an easier change of the trend. The support level for crude prices is within $86.40-86.50 per barrel area, and since prices are above this level the upside movement has the upper hand.However, we may soon see a slight correction of Brent crude prices to the $86.40-86.70 area, where the recent October 2020 peak is located.
Traders should be cautious to open any buy operations close to the new highs at the markets is seen overheated. To open buy positions it would be wise to use any corrections to the strong support levels.
OIL, keep growing to RESISTANCE zone . UKOILHello traders. Everything is clear on the chart for you like always, the Oil needs a fixation above 87$ like a daily or weekly close to growth. Buy points are 80-82 and after pullback to 87. The target is 98-103 $. Good luck.
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UKOIL - SHORTThe price has reached Supply Zone. A Bearish Harmonic Pattern has been formed. Strong Sell!
UKOIL - SHORT
ENTRY PRICE - 85.35
SL - 87.30
TP1 - 79.30
TP2 - 74.60
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USDWTI D1 - Short SetupUSDWTI D1
Another bull leg seen here on WTI, pushing in excess of $81/barrel now. Things are looking very good, possible correction wave to be seen before the next push upside.
Looking for rejection and possible short positions from that $85/barrel price. From here we can squeeze a short position hopefully for as much mileage as it offers.
Oil Market Continues on the UpsideOil prices are rising for the fourth consecutive week as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $83.77 per barrel. The technical picture suggests a further climb of prices which may be pushed by the following factors:
1. Brent crude prices returned to the upward trend that began in April 2020. Prices were below the support level of the trend during the last days of November 2021, but they managed to return above the trend line.
2. Commercial crude stocks in the United States are declining for the seventh consecutive week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude stocks were down by 1.077 million barrels last week after plummeting by 6.432 million a week before. Official information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that will be published on Wednesday may suggest that crude inventories will decline by 1.904 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Global Platts on average expect crude inventories down by 1.6 million barrels.
3. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could tame inflation without undermining economic growth.
The closest resistance for Brent crude prices is at $85-85.30 per barrel with the stronger resistance at $86.70 that was recorded in October 2021. The upside which started on December 20, 2021, is strong, and we may expect Brent crude prices to move to this level. But the overall picture may change if prices slide below the trend line at $81.70-82.00.
So, long positions in crude could be seen to be justified if prices go above $81.70 per barrel. Several large investment banks share the “bullish” perspective for crude. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude prices to reach $90 per barrel by the Q3 2022.
Oil Updates for the day 10/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, as supply bottlenecks in Kazakhstan and Libya countered concerns about the rapid global rise in Omicron infections.
Brent crude was up 24 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $81.99 a barrel , while WTI crude in the United States was up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $79.12 a barrel.
Protests in Kazakhstan disrupted train lines and impacted production at the country's largest oilfield Tengiz, while pipeline repairs in Libya reduced output to 729,000 barrels per day from a peak of 1.3 million bpd last year.
Russia's output appears to be reaching a ceiling as well and these variables "appear to be continuing to construct up a positive narrative for oil
Tengizchevroil (TCO), Kazakhstan's largest oil venture, is gradually increasing output to normal levels at the Tengiz field after protesters hampered output there in recent days, operator Chevron (NYSE:CVX) said on Sunday.
If Russia invades Ukraine, it might impair Russian crude deliveries to Europe, pushing up oil prices, according to RBC Capital analysts.
Rising global demand and lower-than-expected supply additions from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and allies, or OPEC+, are also helping oil.
OPEC output increased by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December, compared to the 253,000 bpd rise allowed under the OPEC+ supply accord, which restored output slashed in 2020 when demand dropped due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
Energy companies in the United States began the new year by continuing to add oil and natural gas rigs after boosting the rig count in 2021 after two years of reductions.
The oil and gas rig count, a leading predictor of future output, increased by two to 588 in the week ending Jan. 7, the most since April 2020, according to Baker Hughes Co's highly watched report on Friday.
Globally, countries ranging from Europe to China and India have imposed restrictions in response to the highly transmissible Omicron coronavirus strain.
In the United States, employment increased less than predicted in December due to labor shortages, and job increases may remain modest in the short term as COVID-19 infections spread and impair economic activity.
Resistance points for the WTI
1) 81.64
2) 84.21
3) 87.78
Support points for the WTI
1) 75.50
2) 71.93
3) 69.36
Resistance points for the Brent Oil
1) 84.32
2) 86.71
3) 90.27
Support points for the Brent Oil
1) 78.37
2) 74.81
3) 72.42
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
Brent Crude Oil, take these trades (Short and Long)Brent Crude oil is turning upwards. 250MA has recently changed direction and crossed the .382 fib level, we can expect a bounce of the 250 MA. Short the market down to this level first before entering the long. Very profitable trade if the price can respect these very strong levels.
Oil Update for 29/12/2021Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
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On Wednesday, oil prices in the United States climbed for the sixth time in a row.
Brent oil prices were unchanged at $78.78 while WTI crude oil futures rose 0.03 percent to $76.00. Both have benefited from stocks' growth.
A variety of asset sectors, from oil to equities, have recovered losses since late November, when the Omicron form of COVID-19 threw investors into a tailspin.
However, a delay in applying greater COVID limitations in the United Kingdom and France before the end of the year has given investors renewed confidence. Investors have returned to risk assets as concerns about its impact have subsided.
However, Omicron has resulted in staff shortages, resulting in thousands of aircraft cancellations in the United States over the Christmas holiday.
Oil prices were further supported by three oil companies reducing production due to maintenance concerns and oilfield shutdowns.
The American Petroleum Institute's crude oil supply figures for the week ending Dec. 24 indicated a decline of 3.1 million barrels in the United States. Forecasts prepared by Investing.com expected a 3.23-million-barrel draw, whereas the previous week saw a 3.67-million-barrel draw.
Investors are now waiting for crude oil supply data from the United States Energy Information Administration, which is due later in the day.
While Russia is unlikely to meet its May objective of pre-pandemic oil output levels due to a shortage of spare production capacity, experts and corporate sources believe it could achieve it later in the year.
According to Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, output is projected to reach pre-pandemic levels of roughly 11.33 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and gas condensate by May 2020.
Investors are now looking forward to the OPEC+ meeting on January 4, when the cartel will determine whether to proceed with a projected 400,000 barrels per day increase in February production.
Despite Omicron, OPEC+ decided to increase output in January at their most recent meeting.
According to the Iranian Oil Ministry, the development of Iran's largest oilfield, Azadegan, is expected to be completed by mid-2023. It has a total capacity of 320,000 barrels per day (bpd).
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
🛢️Brent oil - correction lasting several years? 🕰️● CFDs on Brent Crude Oil ( UKOIL ): 🕐 1M
"Fig. 1"
The development of the ending diagonal is expected within the wave (V) of ((III)) .
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● BCOUSD (OANDA): 🕐 2D
"Fig. 2"
From the end of wave II, there is a five-wave structure — an impulse that could be wave Ⓐ . If this assumption is correct, then the current decline is part of the correction Ⓑ , which can take the form of any corrective pattern and last for several years.
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BCOUSD (OANDA): 🕐 4h
"Fig. 3"
"Fig. 4"
Once again, I repeat that at this stage in the development of the correction it is not possible to predict its final shape and duration, but I am betting on a triangle , on a model that has a high predictive value and is appears , according to my experience, in wave B of the zigzag most often.
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USOILThat's a bottom for me on crude, possible downside to $58 as daily stoch rsi looks overbought but the bulls can easily keep the LTF overbought long enough to make a stronger push back up to ATH, then allow for a higher high on the LTF b4 finally capitulating up to the W5 1.618 fib extension target $108.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave Idea - UpdateAn update on below idea:
Oil hit the 0.382 extension exactly around $84,07 and has since fallen sharply.
In my opinion this is the start of the correction of the move up from the lows in April 2020 to the highs in October 2021 which could end in the $50 to $58 area.
Just theorizing here that we're currently in the middle of wave 3 of A where A would complete around $61 before a correction before proceeding down towards that $50-$58 level.
A continuous short trend for BRENT OIL!At the end of the last week and after the sudden emersion of omicron coronavirus, the price of oil faced a dramatic decrease! In the beginning of this week, after a slight consolidation upward, it has fallen even more dipper than the point which was closed previous week.
Right now in this position I guess that the upward correction is about to finish and in minimum case the fall to its last area is possible.