Brentoil
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to long term correction ideas.
Looks like C wave has now completed after hitting the 0.5 extension on Friday and dropping quickly.
It could be that ABC is complete, correcting the whole move from $77 to $42, a new low below $42 may come but I think there might be a bigger complex correction (WXY) in play which could see a 50% correction to $50, then up for one more high towards $60-$63 before the new low below $42 comes.
A double top and bearish divergence on daily suggests more downside to come in the next few weeks.
A wave completing before the correction for B and then C upward >
The 5th wave of 5/C/W completed >
Crude Oil 63?Decembers ascending trendline from the end of 2018 as you can see price has closed below it, I can see consolidation within the 4hr range and support. (green)
With price below this trend, along with the strong 65 area, the bottom of our macro range previously a support, now becoming resistance, i can't see this rallying further.
I feel there is too much compression of resistance above the price.
Ending the last 4hr bar with a hammer/pin is a decent sign also of confirmation
15minute has retest the trendline previously mentioned and already rejected off during the last few hours of trading last week.
Crude Oil Elliot Wave IdeaCould be completion of an ABC correction at 5738.
Alternate is only wave 3 of impulsive move was complete (in red), if price turns up from the .382 level there could be a 5th wave and a new high.
There appears to be bearish divergence on daily timeframe so a new low may occur which would fit with the ABC
Will this Doji put an end to the #oil rally?We decided to analyze the daily graph of oil as we found an interesting technical model called-Doji, What Does a Doji Tell You? analysts interpret this as a sign of reversal. So our recommendation is Sell position
We also added the Fibonacci Retracement to know where we were going
Sell Brent (oil)
Entry Price: 66.30
Stop loss: 67.30
Take Profit: 65
Brent Crude Oil Futures monthly demand, buy BrentBrent Crude Oil Futures has a monthly demand level located around $5038 that gained control a couple of months ago. The fact that we have had that monthly imbalance in control allowed us to make too decisions. 1) No shorts would are allowed trading against a big timeframe demand imbalance that has gained control. 2) Only longs would be allowed.
Brent Crude Oil has been rallying for a few weeks now creating a new weekly demand level around $53.91 and potentially creating a new one slightly higher around $62.00 a barrel. There is a clear long bias providing buy opportunities on Brent Crude Oil Futures, a lot margin for profit on the way up to monthly supply zone around $77.00 a barrel
We do not take into consideration any fundamental analysis to trade futures, no earnings announcements or volume, we do not need any of that to make a trading decision based on supply and demand imbalances. We just need to know where those imbalances are located and what is the bigger picture trend on the stock.
Still if you pay attention to news, in the beginning of February Oil prices have fallen after disappointing US factory data sparked fresh concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. Brent crude futures dropped 0.2% to $62.6 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.4% to $54.48 a barrel. Oil prices had been buoyed by a new round of supply cuts from Opec and its allies.
Can we really make sense out of this Brent Crude Oil news? Maybe you can, but do we really need it? No we don't. Price reached a very strong monthly demand level, we are allowed to buy Brent Crude Oil but we are not allowed to sell it.
You can also use various options strategies to take longs at demand imbalances, long calls, spreads or any other strategy that you might have on your trading plan.
Is OIL really heading $60~70 in long term? Perhaps NO. 1. Megaphone pattern is apparent on current oil movement. We DO NOT want to take immediate short play as oil has been moving within such range, and most likely test upper area of the megaphone once again.
2. Daily Candle closed super strong. Just because chart says this area "could be" a resistance, we are not seeing slow down in momentum just yet.
3. We need to take close look at 5th Wave Terminal Area (123.6%-140.4%). This is an area to watch and I expect big red candle around this area. Price might even go beyond this level to hit 161.8% level, but I see very
little chance. I will explain why below.
4. Let's take a look at fundamentals. Trump had been showing on multiple occasions, his strong despise for OPEC.
NOPEC legislation just passed Judiciary Committee and will be reviewed by Trump. Once Trump signs off this legislation,
OPEC is essentially done. Remember, majority of OPEC members rely their entire economy on oil exports.
If the U.S proceed to file international law suits OPEC members, that would be a huge, huge disaster.
* NOPEC stands for No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act removing the legal immunity from U.S government filing international law suits for OPEC members.
no major movement ahead for oil at least in first half of 2019I think the supply side for oil will be abundant, considering the fact the tepid world economy will not consume as much oil as the last decade.
growth prospects of major economies looks dim except the US. Many institutes has trimmed down GDP growth rates in the last two month, citing significant headwinds for the world, like debt, trade disputes, geopolitical uncertainties and so forth.OPEC has every intention to reach a production cut deal for its members. Yet it can't control the behavior of non member states, especially the United States, which is the biggest producer in oil and gas and has become a net exporter. By cutting production, OPEC members probably will lose market share to other big players in export market.
Crude Oil Candle PatternWeekly candle on crude oil closed as a bearish engulfing > www.candlesticker.com
Definition
This pattern is characterized by a large black body engulfing a preceding smaller white body, which appears during an uptrend. The black body does not necessarily engulf the shadows of the white body but totally engulfs the body itself. This is an important top reversal signal.
Recognition Criteria
1. The market is characterized by a prevailing uptrend.
2. A white body is formed observed on the first day.
3. The black body that is formed on the second day completely engulfs the white body of the preceding day.
Pattern Requirements and Flexibility
The length of the first white candlestick is not important. It can even be a Doji. The second one, however, has to be a normal or long black candlestick. Either the body tops or the body bottoms of the two candlesticks may be at the same level, but in any case, the black body of the Bearish Engulfing Pattern should be longer than the previous white body.
Trader’s Behavior
While the market is characterized by a definite uptrend, lower volume of buying is observed with the occurrence of a white body on the first day. The next day, the market opens at new highs. It looks as if there’s going to be more bullish trading, however the uptrend loses momentum and the bears take the lead during the day. The selling pressure overcomes buying and finally the market closes below the open of the previous day. The uptrend is damaged.
Sell/Stop Loss Levels
The confirmation level is defined as the last close. Prices should cross below this level for confirmation.
The stop loss level is defined as the last high. Following the bearish signal, if prices go up instead of going down, and close or make two consecutive daily highs above the stop loss level, while no bullish pattern is detected, then the stop loss is triggered.