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GBPJPY faded positive signs below 135.90A per yesterday outlook it fell to the channel support and gave a breakout at 135.90 and currently trading below that which becomes resistance now. Curently h4 trading with mild bearish bias with upside restricting channel resistance at 135.90 for the downside target 134.20-30 level wit a support at ma50 or 134.98. One can wait for the rise till 135.90 and can sell from there for the said target. Bearish bias will invalidates when prices breaks upside above 137.60 or 200ma. Overall sell on rise is advised for the day.
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
2
Brexit All you Need to Know about the UK Leaving the EU 🍃📌 Brexit: What happens now? The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and is now in an 11-month transition period. During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules. However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament. 📍 MP's back Boris Johnson's plan 📍 What is Boris Johnson's deal with the EU? Future trade deal Negotiations on a trade deal with the EU have been proceeding for several months. The UK wants as much access as possible for its goods and services to the EU. But the government has made clear that the UK must leave the customs union and single market and end the overall jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Both sides say there a still significant areas of disagreement - for example, on EU proposals for a so-called "level playing field", which would see the UK and EU maintain similar minimum standards on things like workers' rights and environmental protection. 📌 Brexit: What is a level playing field? The deadline for the two sides to agree an extension to the transition period has now passed. If no trade deal has been agreed and ratified by the end of the year, then the UK faces the prospect of tariffs on exports to the EU. The prime minister has argued that as the UK is completely aligned to EU rules, the negotiation should be straightforward. But critics have pointed out that the UK wishes to have the freedom to diverge from EU rules so it can do deals with other countries - and that makes negotiations more difficult. It's not just a trade deal that needs to be sorted out. The UK must agree how it is going to co-operate with the EU on security and law enforcement. The UK is set to leave the European Arrest Warrant scheme and will have to agree a replacement. It must also agree deals in a number of other areas where co-operation is needed. It's also important to recognize that major changes will take effect on 1 January 2021 whether or not a trade deal is agreed. Free movement of people will end and businesses trading with the EU will have to follow new rules. 📌 What are the big issues at stake here? Top of the list is a trade deal to ensure the tariff and quota-free flow of goods between the EU and UK. But the EU will only agree to zero tariffs and zero quotas if the UK pledges zero dumping – that is, not lowering social and environmental standards to outcompete the EU. Negotiators will almost certainly clash over the EU’s refusal to bring services into the trade deal, leaving the City of London reliant on a patchwork of market access agreements that can be withdrawn at any moment. Another early fight will be over fish, as the EU seeks to link goods trade to maintaining the status quo on access to British waters, a demand seen as outrageous in London. The non-trade topics sound easier, but are full of political landmines. For instance, agreeing a replacement for the European arrest warrant will require Germany to change its constitution. The UK will struggle to achieve the historic first of securing outside access to some EU crime-fighting databases. 📌 What will happen to the economy? It depends who you ask. In the short term, much of the risk seems to have been priced in, at least on currency markets, where sterling still languishes compared to where it was in June 2016. The stock market is well ahead. 📍 Sterling is still down on its pre-Brexit vote position 📍 Shares have rallied recently, partly fueled by greater Brexit certainty 📍 Investment in UK business has fallen behind other G7 countries Share your Views and comments ideas below to make things more better. Thank you
Education
by Ridethemacro
Sterling shows bullish tone on tuesday,is it fading again?Sterling held onto a moderately bullish tone Tuesday, recording a fourth consecutive daily gain. From a technical standpoint, H4 recently knocked on the door of 1.29, a level that’s withstood two upside attempts this week. In spite of this, sellers offer a non-committal tone at the moment. As having said, 1.29 is proving a problematic hurdle to overpower on the H4 right now, despite the higher timeframe supports in sight. Yet, given the lacklustre show from sellers here, a 1.29 breach is still potentially in store. Above 1.29, the river north on the higher timeframes appears ripple free until daily resistance at 1.3017, which happens to merge with the key figure 1.30 and H4 resistance at 1.3009.Dip-buying at any retest seen at 1.28 remains a possible scenario (should intraday sellers strengthen their grip).Another setup worth keeping a tab on is a H4 close above 1.29, signalling bullish scenarios in favour of reaching the 1.30 range. Irrespective of the support used, conservative traders are likely to seek at least additional H4 candlestick confirmation before committing.
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
Short EURAUD - Fundamental and Technical AnalysisFundamentals: Europe is entering the winter season and fears of a second wave is on the horizon. Cases are steadily increasing. Australia is approaching the summer season after a relatively low number of covid AND flu cases in the winter season. Brexit talks this week with a gloomy outlook. Brexit shouldn't heavily affect the Euro, but it could, and the outlook seems bearish. Australia's economy hit rock bottom last month with the government announcing a budget deficit. All else equal, the budget deficit should boost the Australian economy and thus the AUD. China's economy is showing signs of a recovery. AUD is strongly positively correlated with the CNY. Conclusion: - Bearish EUR - Bullish AUD Technicals: Price was rejected at a key supply area 1.65558 Price is trading at a downtrend in the lower time frames (H1) Price is flirting with the 23.6% Fib level
Short
by Boatsnhoes
GBPJPY crossing of 50ma to 200 1hr makes more buyTechnically, observed crossing of 50ma above 200ma in 1hr chart makes more buying and formed a support at the same 50ma at 134.98. Daily perspective we see a upside bias till 136.50-137 zone followed by 139 which is fib 61.8% retracement zone. Current price says 135.75 can rise sharply till 13650/137 for the day. One can go for long as of today. Suggestion: BUY GBPJPY AT CMP 135.75 SL BELOW 134.90 TGT 136.50/136.75 ELSE SELL BELOW 134.80 TGT 134/133.80 SL ABV 135.20
Long
by OfficialYaMarkets
Weak dollar pushing pound to above 1.29 handleTechnically, GBPUSD holding abv 1.28 handle strongl and heading for 1.29 and sustain abv can test 1.32. Intraday perspective h4 chart holding above 50ma at 1.2822 and h1 200ma at 1.2822 saying 1.2820 a strong support for the day. One can build a buy positions for the upside target 1.2920 yesterday high also a 136ma too in h4, followed by 200ma at 1.3045 h4 timeframe. Overall buy on dips is advised for the day. Suggestion: BUY GBPUSD FROM CMP 1.2855 SL BELOW 1.2800 TGT 1.2920/2950 ELSE SELL BELOW 1.2800 FOR 1.2755/2730 SL ABV 1.2830
Long
by OfficialYaMarkets
FX Update: European mood brightens and sterling surgesSummary: The mood across markets has brightened further in Europe on smooth Brexit hopes driven by the news that major London clearinghouses will retain access to the EU after December 31. This has EURGBP eyeing downside pivot levels. Elsewhere, things are looking a bit less bright as the strong US dollar weighs on sentiment for EM currencies and even among the small G10 currencies. Sterling was already showing signs of resilience late last week, in part on lowered expectations that the BoE is looking into an imminent move to a negative rate policy (BoE’s Ramsden using those words almost exactly in the minutes after I am writing this, as he sees the effective lower bound at 0.1%), but also on a suddenly more positive tone from informal Brexit talks that were somewhat drowned out over the furor over negative policy rate considerations recently. The Brexit talks are set to get more formal this week and starting tomorrow, with this round seen as a last dash effort if any agreement is to be made on Boris Johnson’s timeline aiming for mid-October agreement. Particular focus from the EU side will apparently be on how any trade deal will be enforced after the recently passed Brexit bill could walk back key portions of the Withdrawal Agreement, which effectively stipulated a customs border across the Irish Sea (separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.) A specific headline supporting sterling this morning was the news from ESMA (Paris-based European Securities and Markets Authority) that the UK’s clearinghouses for derivatives, energy and metals trades will be able to continuing doing business with EU financial institutions after the December 31 end of the Brexit transition period. This is hugely important as the derivatives portion of the above includes things like the global settling of USD, GBP and EUR swaps. Chart: EURGBP EURGBP is pressing back lower toward what is arguably the downside pivot area around 0.9000, which would begin to fully reverse the early September spike inspired by Boris Johnson’s new move to get the Brexit Bill in place. Still, the action will remain highly headline dependent over the next week and more into mid-October on whether we are moving toward a deal. Positioning for a directional move in options is a way to trade outcomes for those fearing the large swings in the spot exchange rate until we either get a deal or a hard Brexit. For the former a long put spread expiring 8 Jan 21 with strikes of 0.88 and 0.86 cost about 56 pips offering almost 3 to 1 reward-to-risk. Strikes farther out of the money offer better multiples if the underlying trades down to the lower strike. Elsewhere, the strong mood in Europe this morning is not providing notable positive contagion into emerging markets, where the USD strength is beginning to hurt. An FT article (paywall) this morning points out the scale of EM borrowing (some $100 billion since the outbreak of Covid-19) and rightly wonders at the ability for emerging markets to repay this debt. With USD liquidity growth slowing from the initial huge splash, the risk to EM is enormous if the resurgence of Covid-19 or any other threat keeps the global recovery weak or worse. US political dysfunction is another risk across markets as well, keeping new US stimulus possibly bottled up until after a new US Congress sits in January. One EM currency that may be eyeing specific outcomes is the Russian ruble, as USDRUB accelerated higher to close last week in a move that doesn’t seem particularly driven by oil fundamentals. Ruble traders and owners of Russian assets may be eyeing the strength of Joe Biden in the US election polls, as Biden and the Democrats are seen as likely to be far less friendly to Russia than Trump on accusations of prior interference in US elections and the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Navalny. The ruble is close to its Covid-19 panic lows than most other major EM currencies, save for the Turkish lira, where even last week’s 200 basis point hike failed to stem the selling, with the lira tumbling to new cycle lows this morning. The G-10 rundown USD – the USD strength beginning to ease somewhat by lunchtime in Europe on very strong risk sentiment all morning long in Europe. Considerable work to be done by the USD bears to reverse the recent rally impulse. EUR – as noted in today’s Saxo Market Call podcast, European banks are in the dumps, with the broad banking index of equities touching its lowest level since the 1980’s. Is there any EU recovery without a proper cleanup of the banking system? The mood is very positive today, but let’s see if that lasts. JPY – the Japanese yen is hanging in better than one would expect on a day in which European equities are ripping some 2-3% higher. Part of the resilience likely down to sympathy with USD moves in the crosses and a local weakness here in the reflationary narrative (commodity prices GBP – sterling firmer on the developments noted above and plenty more where that came from if we get clear signals that the two sides are moving toward a deal later this week as the latest Brexit talks get under way tomorrow. CHF – the positive mood in Europe rubbing off ever so slightly on CHF, with EURCHF have a poke at 1.0800 again this morning - the bigger level there is 1.0900. The latest weekly sight deposit data showed negligible change (no real intervention ongoing last week). AUD – the Aussie is disappointing here, suggesting that the story for the Aussie is more linked to commodity prices and the reflationary story more than risk sentiment per se, as liquid, risky assets are putting in a stellar performance today, while iron ore remains stuck near a two-month low. Still, structural weakness for AUDUSD only really arrives with a forceful move below 0.7000. CAD – the USDCAD bounce has been gentler than the USD bounce elsewhere, with CAD showing its tendency to track USD direction in crosses like AUDCAD (big mover that one recently) NZD – the kiwi generally following the Aussie’s lead, though in the AUDNZD cross, the kiwi extended aggressively stronger last week – the latest distraction is the 1.0750 area, the last major Fibo (61.8%) of the rally wave from July and August, though bulls there need a negative NZD catalyst and move above 1.0800-50 to rekindle their hopes. SEK – the positive mood in Europe rubbing off more easily on SEK aftter EURSEK shot above its 200-day moving average last week, likely on doom-and-Covid-19-gloom. Lets’ see if that moving average, now near 10.56 provides any support. NOK – the krone suffered a brutal decline last week and risk-on in Europe is finally seeing the currency put in a show of support. A lot of work to do to reverse the damage. John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. 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by Saxo
GBP USD update - still in shorts for the long termHello Traders and analysts, We are currently in sells - Here is our take on GBP USD - a view for lower time frame traders. The eyes - are sell targets The eyes - are potential buy zones. it depends on your outlook. but expect next week at the start to see a rebound for the GBP in order to provide a fresh discount for the USD to get further orders from the banks to continue to sell. Over looking the lower timeframe we see the lower lows and lower highs in more detail with most recent price breaking below and now testing the most recent lows (of course where price has broken the ray in Blue This pair is currently in a small period of consolidation between the orange zones. Expect a further bearish move to line up as the Pound is looking for trade flows from countries and also accepting the weakening but for import, export and GBP growth, a fair smart thing to do. Remember: go against the retail mindset you have. Price can retest** the 1.30 zone again before dropping further. The probable scenario will be to reject 1.28 in our bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
GBPUSD in a critical areaThe pair is in a rectangle, we can see a strong rsi divergence which may suggest a possible upside breakout, the Cable needs to close an h4 candle above 1.2780 in order to validate it. in daily chart it s been formed the C wave (retracement from 1.30 to 1.2765) and now there should be a new wave 1 towards 1.30. If the price closes under 1.275 you can open a sell position with target 1.225. Pay attention to false breakouts and use some filters (for example moving averages) Use an appropraiate money management.
by Dragon_Investments