Brexit
GBP pairs BASING at major support. Good Risk vs Reward!So the big news has been the GBP and how Brexit could be seeing a re-write, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson sending in a bill to parliament. The Pound has weakened considerably. Making multiple swing waves in its trend.
First up, the GBPUSD is at a major support zone on the daily chart. Not just a support zone, but a FLIP zone (an area that has been both support and resistance). This is a very key and strong level, and is generally where we see the exhaustion of a previous trend, and the beginning of a new trend. Let's take it down to the 4 hour chart to find out what we see:
Take a look at that 36 hours of candle basing at support. This is telling. Now my followers know that I prefer a pattern. We like to see multiple lower highs followed by a reversal pattern. We do not have that as of yet, but we do have the potential to perhaps pullback and form a double top. Of we can make our first higher low.
A similar set up on the GBPJPY:
In fact, I like the GBPJPY much better. A more well defined range also occurring at a major support zone. There is a possibility to enter now and place our stop loss just below the previous lows. This would leave you with a stop loss of less than 70 pips, with a target of 300 pips or more if we take profits at 138.50. I would recommend entering an initial small position here. There is a chance price just falls below and makes new lows, or fake outs. This is the risk that we accept. The real trigger is the breakout higher of the range, above 136.50. We will add more to our position once that occurs.
Other pairs like the GBPNZD show something similar:
GBPCHF:
In fact, I can also post EURGBP, GBPAUD and GBPCAD but you get the point. All Pound pairs have made multiple swing moves and are now showing an indication of basing at a major support/flip zone. Yes, there is significant fundamental and major news ahead for the Pound, so keep this in mind. There is also a possibility of that fake out move as explained earlier, which may see price move below these zones before the move higher. This is why the safer option is to await for the pattern and breakout of the pattern.
EURGBP H1EURGBP M30 - Saw a break and retest of this pennant last week, but this was quite late during the week and markets then closed, and also failed to set new highs beyond the breakout high. I'm neither bullish or bearish on this until we hear more from the vote later on today. This will then set the tone going forward for the GBP markets and to a degree the EUR markets
GBP/ USD Short Still waiting for the decision to be made in parliament today. It looks unlikely anything will be resolved and may see prices push to 1.265 support levels. However, if decisions are deemed to be positive which is unlikely, the price may hit previous support at 1.300.
2 indicators are showing bullish signals but this may wane and turn south. The third indicator is still bearish. However, it still has room for bulls to push price up and for all 3 indicators to give a signal.
In the next few days we have very important economic news coming out for the pound, so the markets will be volatile this coming week. However, the pound is mainly focused on Brexit and the Irish border.
Traders keep your eye out for any sudden news that's focused on Brexit.
ridethepig | GBPA timely update to the cable chart after an annihilation last week...
📍 Taking back control (of support)
If we take a closer look at the breakdown we can see that above all it is directed at a lack of confidence in building UK exposure against a no-deal backdrop. What is perhaps even more crucial is the conception of 'track and trace' which is of course difficult to argue against, however if liberty is lost then confidence will follow!
If we take into account that the short-term damage from Brexit will relatively speaking demand action from BOE with front loaded cuts and another QE bazooka then sharp speculators can come together and understand the hyper devaluation of Sterling; classical monetary plays to offset the reduction in market access.
Euro seemed to lead the way on the leg higher and sterling seems to be leading the legs lower in G10 FX because of its high beta. The 1.35xx highs were rejected in fantastic style; and since the entire scaffolding for the leg higher since July has been reversed. Here eyeballing a move back towards 1.225x and 1.207x, possible extensions towards March lows and $1.10 with no-deal this year.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
GBPUSD - WAVE 3 Potentially Complete - Get Ready To SELLThis ticks all the boxes for a wave 3 completion using Elliott Wave theory.
Wave 3 has ended near the 1.618% FIB extension with an inverted hammer candle on the daily time frame.
There is a trend line support on the 1 hour time frame. Trading plan is to wait for a breakdown before entering a sell position.
Any thoughts or comments please let us know.
GBPUSD ShortLiquidity hunt above blue zone, potential reaction off .5 fib and 4H highs seen in yellow.
Weekly view is bearish with fundamental Brexit news pushing GU down even further.
Potential for a quick snipe while it clears intra-day highs but wait for perfect entry watching reaction off the zones.
GBPNZD King's Crown - Signal up 600 Pips!See past trade analysis on GBPNZD, this fell down perfectly as predicted (technicals always win).
We have passed TP 1 @ 600 pips profit.
TP 2 we will hit for sure, but look for a retest at 1.9400-1.9460 before selling downwards for 200+ pips opportunity.
Don't sell now, be patient and wait for the retrace. Every move always has a retrace so wait until you have a very good entry. Still lots of opportunity on this one!
Good luck!
Charles V
www.cvfxmanagement.com
Trading made Simple
GBPUSD under pressure Negotiations between London and Brussels on a trade deal for when the United Kingdom leaves the EU (after the transition period ending at the end of this year) are fraught with difficulty. Many experts believe that the likelihood of an agreement being in place before the 15 October deadline is no more than roughly 30%. Of course, the tough negotiating stance on both sides could simply be tactical, but this does not seem likely.
GBPUSD approaching Up Trend Line - BuyGBPUSD has broken past support area on smaller time frame but we are still creating higher highs and higher lows.
Price currently near daily up trend line. Look to buy at up trend line area with short stop loss.
Expecting this price to at least go back up to 1.3140 area for 150 pips profit.
Good luck trading!
Let me know if I can help in any way!
Charles V
ww.cvfxmanagement.com
Trading made simple.
EUR/CAD cup and handle formation. Too good to miss… EUR/CAD cup and handle formation. Too good to miss…
A beautiful cup and handle have been formed on the EUR/CAD daily chart and is poised for a remarkable breakout, WHY?
The euro has been heavily longed by institutional traders compared to heavy short that was added last week to the CAD.
Oil has had a tough start to the week and will continue to fall (our bias) most economies were banking on a COVID vaccine/recovery by mid-October, which is now looking not so likely, oil reserves once again are stocking up and supply is outstripping demand, this is putting pressure on the commodity-related Canadian dollar.
The Euro, on the other hand, is proving to be as strong and resilient as the USD once was. With Brexit talks this week diminishing hopes of a deal, a no-deal Brexit is more likely, pushing the euro higher.
Watch this pair closely in the coming weeks and you shall be rewarded with some big pips.