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Brexit

GBP/ USD Short Still waiting for the decision to be made in parliament today. It looks unlikely anything will be resolved and may see prices push to 1.265 support levels. However, if decisions are deemed to be positive which is unlikely, the price may hit previous support at 1.300. 2 indicators are showing bullish signals but this may wane and turn south. The third indicator is still bearish. However, it still has room for bulls to push price up and for all 3 indicators to give a signal. In the next few days we have very important economic news coming out for the pound, so the markets will be volatile this coming week. However, the pound is mainly focused on Brexit and the Irish border. Traders keep your eye out for any sudden news that's focused on Brexit.
Short
by FXbanksy98
ridethepig | GBPA timely update to the cable chart after an annihilation last week... 📍 Taking back control (of support) If we take a closer look at the breakdown we can see that above all it is directed at a lack of confidence in building UK exposure against a no-deal backdrop. What is perhaps even more crucial is the conception of 'track and trace' which is of course difficult to argue against, however if liberty is lost then confidence will follow! If we take into account that the short-term damage from Brexit will relatively speaking demand action from BOE with front loaded cuts and another QE bazooka then sharp speculators can come together and understand the hyper devaluation of Sterling; classical monetary plays to offset the reduction in market access. Euro seemed to lead the way on the leg higher and sterling seems to be leading the legs lower in G10 FX because of its high beta. The 1.35xx highs were rejected in fantastic style; and since the entire scaffolding for the leg higher since July has been reversed. Here eyeballing a move back towards 1.225x and 1.207x, possible extensions towards March lows and $1.10 with no-deal this year. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
GBPNZD King's Crown - Signal up 600 Pips!See past trade analysis on GBPNZD, this fell down perfectly as predicted (technicals always win). We have passed TP 1 @ 600 pips profit. TP 2 we will hit for sure, but look for a retest at 1.9400-1.9460 before selling downwards for 200+ pips opportunity. Don't sell now, be patient and wait for the retrace. Every move always has a retrace so wait until you have a very good entry. Still lots of opportunity on this one! Good luck! Charles V www.cvfxmanagement.com Trading made Simple
Short
by cvfxwealth
EUR/CAD cup and handle formation. Too good to miss… EUR/CAD cup and handle formation. Too good to miss… A beautiful cup and handle have been formed on the EUR/CAD daily chart and is poised for a remarkable breakout, WHY? The euro has been heavily longed by institutional traders compared to heavy short that was added last week to the CAD. Oil has had a tough start to the week and will continue to fall (our bias) most economies were banking on a COVID vaccine/recovery by mid-October, which is now looking not so likely, oil reserves once again are stocking up and supply is outstripping demand, this is putting pressure on the commodity-related Canadian dollar. The Euro, on the other hand, is proving to be as strong and resilient as the USD once was. With Brexit talks this week diminishing hopes of a deal, a no-deal Brexit is more likely, pushing the euro higher. Watch this pair closely in the coming weeks and you shall be rewarded with some big pips.
Long
by Myfxpips
ridethepig | Selling the Footsie📌 Exchanging A quick chart update here for today's flow which is essentially intended to cast some light over No-deal Brexit motives. In all cases, losing market access is a bad idea in the short-term and particularly when done frantically. The apparently desirable opportunity to cause maximum damage from Downing Street with NDB is playing an important role in hijacking the flows into UK assets. Recommend avoiding a waste of energy and time attempting to defend portfolios with UK exposure and subsequently focusing elsewhere. Just think back to our coverage of the Pound when buyers were eaten up. This time sellers of UK exposure wish to occupy the downside in Equities to deliver complete annihilation of the economy. With 6,000 holding sellers have time to prevent the recovery and can move lower into Wednesday. The correct path of least resistance is to the downside, a break below 5,775 will leave buyers no choice but to capitulate. Thanks all for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
1
GBPUSDTheresa May is betting her legacy from the help of Jeremy Corbyn, will the two head be successful to deliver a deal Brexit before Halloween? After last Thursday’s local electionsin UK, in which both the Conservatives and Labour parties were punished severely by voters for failing to break the political deadlock, May and Corbyn have insisted their parties must now urgently agree a way forward in cross-party talks which will resume on Tuesday. Last week May said: “We have to find a way to break the deadlock. I believe the results of the local elections give fresh urgency to this.” But opposition MPs and Tory Brexiters warned any deal the leadership teams stitch up behind the scenes would face inevitable defeat in parliament and cause more acrimony in the parties. The Observer can reveal that 104 opposition MPs, mainly from Labour but also SNP, Change UK, Green and Plaid Cymru, have written to May and Corbyn insisting they will not back a “Westminster stitch-up” unless there is a firm guarantee that any deal is then put to a confirmatory referendum. At this moment Labour party have 244 MPs in the Parliament and around 80 or less Tory MPs is supporter for May or remain. so there is still risk of not getting enough MP's to pass a deal So if May's plan fail again, or before May and Corbyn reaching agreement, the Tory manage to force May to resign. The GBP option seems that a possibility of GBP drop below 1.2. the main last defence is 1.26. upside limit is 1.3250 and 1.3450. (Max)
by bruceyam
ridethepig | Positional Play in UK Equities 📌 UK Equities remain vulnerable with Brexit & Covid in play. (Similar representation for those tracking the moves in S&P, NQ, DJIA and etc...) (1) Firstly challenge the view that Rishi's stimulus produces an immediate effect and anything more than a spring mattress; the furlough scheme is incredibly expensive and weighing heavy despite being totally justified. (2) Recognise the idea that we are in a dead-cat-bounce in Equities broadly and that the UK is particularly exposed to these corrections which is key in positional swings! With this said, I struggle to find positives in the UK and in doing so prevents exposure on the bid. In order to bring interest in UK Equities I would need to see the current lows swept and in the event of a no-deal Brexit then we can see as low as 3579.x. (3) Keep to the strategy - avoid getting soft hands and closing out too early (out of fear of missing the rally) and try rather to operate with a sense of calm and tranquility. (4) Aim for total destruction of UK assets in the coming year, sadly the individual mobility of almost every sector will be affected from the political suicide. (5) Get used to observing the complacency and "sell on rallies"; do not let an emotional retail approach be decisive. (6) Remember what is important for Positional swings ... we are not attacking, or even defending, but remaining nimble with the capital outflows, rather like meandering water. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
OANDA:UK100GBPShort
by ridethepig
3
Pound sells off on Brexit woesThe pound is down 2% against the U.S dollar in the past couple of days, on growing prospects that the United Kingdom will leave the European Union without a trade agreement. Brexit talks are set to continue this week, with UK’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson playing hardball with European Officials. He has imposed a October 15 deadline, to which he plans to quit Brexit talks if no deal is reached. The pounds have mostly forgotten Brexit, with the Coronavirus pandemic guiding everyone’s attention away from the non-completion of Brexit. Seema Shah, Portfolio manager at Principal Global Investors, stated that headlines over the weekend were a “timely reminder that, while the markets have been distracted by the UK’s struggle to rejuvenate the economy, Brexit negotiations have quietly been going nowhere.” The main issues include competition, fisheries, and solving disputes. UK government undermining Brexit, pushing pound lower Further downwards pressure came from the revelation of the UK government is planning to release legislation that would override critical parts of the withdrawal agreement – notably the deal that would undermine the agreement that Boris Johnson signed last year to avoid a return to a hard border. The pound has been rallying since its March lows, up 14.13%. However, it has underperformed compared to its peers. For example, the Australian dollar has rallied 31% since its March lows. The main issue for the pound comes from its appreciation, not discounting Brexit talks. As headlines start to creep up about Brexit near Boris’ October 15 date, the pound’s volatility will increase. Petr Krapta, a currency strategist at ING bank, stated that “the Brexit head is back on and sterling is, in our view, unprepared.” This comes at a time when the UK’s grip on the Coronavirus continues to slip, with daily cases spiking, recording the highest number of daily Coronavirus cases since May.
by BlackBull_Markets