Could be THE MOMENT of GBPUSD?We can observe that GBPUSD wants to refuse the Point 4 of our tendence so when the moment arrive, if we have the confirmation, we can sell the value, anyway we need to wait because we need to know what will happens in the Monthly Key Level and if the value wants to retest our Shoulder Head Shoulder so before the entry i prefer to observe what can happens in 50% and if the news do a really alcist movement i will be out of GBPUSD or wait for the entry in 61% havin less risk.
Brexit
Markets relax again amid concerns over global economyMonday was a very busy day in the financial markets in terms of price dynamics. The tone was set by China, which opened its stock markets after a long vacation. Expectedly, the market collapsed despite unprecedented restrictive measures by the Government and an infusion of nearly two hundred billion dollars from the Bank of China. The Shanghai Composite Base Index lost $420 billion in value over the day.
Experts, meanwhile, note that China is well suited to act as a catalyst for a new global crisis (until recently, the States have done it well). The fact is that in recent years, the role of China in the global economy has grown dramatically. Today, it accounts for about a third of world growth, which is more than the share of the United States, Europe and Japan combined. So if Goldman Sachs analysts are right (they forecast a decline in China in 2020 at 0.4%), then the global economy will face serious problems.
Despite the sales in China and the next anti-record coronavirus epidemic, investors again relaxed and calmed down. This already happened last week and turned out to be nothing more than a pause in the main movement.
So, such gold descents as yesterday, we recommend using the asset for purchases. Moreover, by itself, the gold market could face a shortage. The fact is that the volume of gold mining in the world in 2020 decreased for the first time in 10 years. All easily recoverable metal has already been mined, which only strengthens the current negative trends for the offer of an asset.
The pound dipped well yesterday. Although not the fact that this is its absolute minimum. The fact is that Great Britain and the EU, after the official withdrawal of the first from the Union, switched to the most important thing - the trade agreement. And then, predictably, the parties faced a problem. However, we have already gone through all this over the past 3 years. The parties will exchange threats, raise rates, put pressure on each other in an attempt to win the most favorable conditions for themselves. Given that the period until the end of the year, the pound is waiting for a difficult 8-9 months. We continue to believe that the parties will agree on how this ultimately happened with Brexit. And so we will use the pound's descents as an excuse for his purchases. At least the point 1.2980-1.3000 looks too attractive not to risk buying from it. But with mandatory stops, because it is likely that the pound can be bought even cheaper.
Oil (WTI benchmark) yesterday fixed below the support of 51.20. In general, the situation looks rather threatening for buyers, especially since the background is generally favorable for further sales (oil demand in China collapsed by 3 million b/d, which is about 20% of its total consumption).
GBPNZD Bulls Are Over Staying Their WelcomeThe weekly chart above shows GBPNZD's entire decline from Aug 2015 high. The sell-off is a textbook Elliot Wave impulse pattern, labeled 1-2-3-4-5.
According to the theory, a three-wave retracement follows every impulse. Here, that three-wave rally has been unfolded as a W-X-Y-X-Z triple zigzag pattern. Wave (c) of Z is about to complete. I anticipate GBPNZD to find resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level that lined up with the weekly resistance zone.
If this count is correct, there is a complete 5-3 wave cycle on GBPNZD's weekly chart. According to the Elliott Wave theory, the trend can now be expected to resume in the direction of the impulsive sequence.
I think the bears might not have to wait too long to conquer November 2016 low and beyond.
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Veejahbee.
GbpUsd - BREXITOn Friday I analyzed GBPUSD for a short opportunity, I was wrong. After the currency pair was broken down, I identified a strong sell opportunity as displayed with my technical chart work. The GBPUSD currency pair was in a 4hr range for the past few weeks and is now showing signs of a breakout emerging. In my opinion that breakout was to be to the downside seeking to 1.295 region or below.
Now I have adjusted my analysis and I will be taking along position due to the approval and confirmation of BREXIT
Week results - between Brexit the NFPThe main event of the previous week was not a meeting of the Bank of England or even a decision of the Fed (both the Central Banks left monetary policy parameters unchanged). This is not data on US GDP (annual growth rates have been the weakest since 2016: 2.3% in 2019 compared to 2.9% in 2018), but the coronavirus epidemic in China. Yes, so far the epidemic has been localized in China. But this is not easier. The magnitude of the coronavirus epidemic has already exceeded the 2003 SARS. And the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of coronavirus a global emergency.
So last week, the markets were busy on the one hand counting the victims of the epidemic (more than 300 deaths and more than 15,000 cases), and on the other hand, counting the economic damage. China extended the New Year weekend for another week. That is, another week 2/3 of the Chinese economy will be closed. The magnitude of the losses is not yet clear, as the epidemic continues, but it is already clear that we are talking about tens of billions of dollars. The chances of China's GDP growth rate dropping below 6% now seem almost 100%.
So the fears and concerns of the global recession have intensified. The Chinese stock market today is trading in a deep minus (about -8%) despite all the efforts of the Government and the Central Bank.
Despite such a regrettable situation, trading is an opportunity that can and should be taken advantage of. For the long-term, it is worth selling in super bought stock markets, but in the medium-term and locally, the purchase of safe-haven assets (gold and the Japanese yen) and the sale of risky assets such as the Russian ruble look great.
Actually, we voiced this plan last week, but as the epidemic grows, the relevance of our positions only grows.
Another significant event of the past week was Brexit. On January 31, Great Britain officially left the EU. We already wrote that buying pounds remains one of the best trading opportunities at FOREX in terms of potential in 2020. Whether it is implemented or not will show the progress of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. But if successful, a pound above 1.40 could very well become a reality.
The upcoming week will be saturated with various kinds of macroeconomic statistics. But the main attention will still be focused on Friday statistics on the US labor market and NFP figures. Our thoughts and forecasts on this subject will be described closer to Friday. In the meantime, we continue to monitor the development of the epidemic and investor sentiment.
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Feb20,Wk1While many traders see the bullish side of GBPUSD, I do see the possibility of a bearish movement.
Introducing the ABCD Pattern. At Point D completion and with RSI at the Overbought area set in for a selling opportunity. All is needed is a confirmation candle that will set in at 10 am (+8GMT) to see if it will be a valid trade for me. Are you ready?
I can't wait for Monday.
We need to wait a little...It's probable that in the actual supply EURUSD wants to accumulate, anyway the zone is very interessant because we have the rebounce of the trend line near of the bullish trend line and the supply in 1.10800 (this is why i believe that before of fall the value could accumulate), in conclusion, and if the news relationeted with the BREXIT don't break too much, EURUSD WILL FALL, after a little accumulation
Don't SELL GBPAUD, for now!You may say: What a BS! isn't it a SHORT idea?! So what's with the title?!
If you're going to sell GBPAUD, please hold on. Take a deep breath and wait for the right moment to come.
When would it be? sorry you have to wait about two weeks. Remember you don't have to hold your breath! Just hold your trade! :)
There are two obvious reason for this: CRAB harmonic pattern and hitting top of the uptrend channel. You may also find some divergences around in some indicators such as MACD and RSI.
So you may want to sell the pair cautiously around 13 Feb/2.005 (As I always said my analysis is time bounded, means has Entry and TP for both PRICE and TIME)
The SL has shown on the chart.
Keep in mind that sentiment around the BREXIT and CORONA virus can push things different. So be sensitive about TIME. If price hit the ENTRY before 13 FEB, Forget this and go for other pairs. It's too dangerous!
Good luck with your trade.
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