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Brexit

GBPAUD waiting for the break of the rangePrice again testing the upper trend line after a false break from election period. Upcoming week is key and all attention on UK Brexit conclusion. Boris finally pushed his Brexit plan and on Friday 31st UK is leaving the EU. Also on Thursday we have BoE, Carney's last meeting, with various call from board members to potentially cut the rates to boost the economy. 2019 had the slowest growth since 2012 and some members already expressed dovish outlook on the rate decision. So lots of fundamentals this week for GBP. Technical range in the comments shows that a breakout trade is likely here. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
3
China’s epidemic, Brexit, the ECB, ruble, and oilWednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke an increase in asset prices. Speaking of investor concerns. The coronavirus epidemic in China seems to be gaining momentum and is at risk of spreading around the world. And although China’s official authorities claim that the situation is under control, there are risks of causing significant economic damage to the Chinese economy. Events take place at the time of the New Year holidays in China, which traditionally attract millions of tourists. In general, the chances of a trend continuing in a slowdown in China's economy are very high. Against such a background, gold purchases continue to be one of our favorite deals to date. Another top deal for us is the purchase of the British pound. The reasons are the same - Brexit is slowly but surely moving towards the implementation of the “soft” scenario, and this is an occasion for the growth of the pound in the region of 1.40. Yesterday, the GBPUSD pair jerked up due to the fact that the House of Lords of the British Parliament approved the Brexit bill. So on January 31, Great Britain will leave the European Union. From February, a transitional period will begin, which will last until the end of 2020. Bank Canals expectedly left the rate unchanged yesterday. However, the Canadian dollar was still under pressure, and the trading tactics proposed by us in yesterday's review worked out 100%. It is a pity that it can hardly be applied today in the case of the euro. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the afternoon. Almost certainly everything will be unchanged. But comments can be quite unexpected. It is about the announcement of the details of the new monetary policy strategy of the Central Bank. As expected, it will include a phasing out of quantitative easing and the era of zero rates. If nothing changes, we do not expect a significant increase in the euro today. Even when changing the strategy of the Central Bank, it’s not about the months, but about the years that will be needed for its practical implementation. Downward pressure has clearly prevailed lately, and aggression on the part of the ECB has not come for years. The Russian ruble continues to decline in the foreign exchange market, but the potential for its reduction has not yet been fully exhausted. It still seems rather vulnerable to us, so we will use any attempts to strengthen the ruble for its sales. Oil yesterday declined quite aggressively and overcame an important level of support, which opens the way to a further decline. Considering that the markets again turned their attention to an oversupply of oil in 2020, we will refrain from aggressive asset purchases for now.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD WEEKLY AND DAILY TIMEFRAMES!-Gbpusd the last few days was respecting technical analysis but the next days till 31/1 will not respect technical analysis at all it will only move fundamentally as we are speaking technical on weekly time frame gbpusd is in uptrend also on daily time frame -what we expect: we expect every down movement is a buy opportunity -fundamentally: Johnson getting brexit done with a deal gbpusd can reach 1.38 within a day brexit no deal gbp might crash to 1.19 long term most likely he will secure a deal!!
Long
by triunfofx
GBPJPY, Great Britain Pound - Japan Yen: Trend AnalysisFX:GBPJPY A very difficult cross to read technically at this stage, in which we are in an obvious range with many price structures. If it were to breakdown it would be extremely risky to enter short because you could bounce back on the level just below. If it were to breakup instead there would be more potential gains on the Risk Reward profile, although there is first a potential resistance that could temporarily block a new bullish trend favoring the Pound and optimism in this currency after the developments of Brexit. Happy Trading at All!
by SwissTradingSchool
Central Banks week and the IMF head expects a crisisMonday turned out to be a fairly calm day for financial markets. The reason on the surface is a day off in the USA. So today it will almost certainly be more volatile and interesting. The Bank of Japan set the pace to the news background early in the morning. Monetary policy parameters were left unchanged. The press conference will be somewhat later than the publication of this review, so if any interesting details come up, they will talk about them tomorrow. Today will be interesting statistics on the UK labor market. Considering how disastrous the data on the British economy last week was, one should not expect any positive. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that Brexit is the main driver of the pound, and statistics in the current reality can lead only to local movements. Accordingly, weak data, of course, will provoke sales but are unlikely to lead to the formation of a trend. This means that purchases in intraday oversold areas remain relevant to us. Let's get back to the events of yesterday. Perhaps the most significant was the opening of the oil market with a gap up. The reason is concerns about the supply on the market. The fact is that Iraq and Libya drastically reduced oil production. In Iraq, because of protests, in Libya, because of armed groups that blocked the pipeline. And although it is very likely that these force majeure are temporary, we recall our recommendation to buy oil, which continues to be relevant in the current conditions. We also continue to be supporters of the impending crisis, or at least the strongest correction in the US stock market. So it was nice to note the replenishment in our ranks. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, in her last interview, compared the current situation to what was happening in the world on the eve of the Great Depression. A key common feature of the 1920s and the present situation is excessive financial squandering. According to the head of the IMF, depression cannot be avoided. The whole question is only in time. In this regard, we recall our recommendations on buying safe haven assets (gold in the first place and Japanese yen in the second), as well as the “trading idea of the decade” - in the sale of shares of high-tech companies in the US stock market.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EURGBP Head and Shoulders FormingEURGBP has been one of those frustrating pairs lately, a large part due to the uncertainty of Brexit. After a prolonged downtrend with multiple lower highs and lowers lows, we seem to be exhausting, and did see fake out wicks at a large support/flip zone. From here, we have not made a new lower high, but seem to potentially be making a higher low. This is only confirmed with a higher high close. We are looking for this to trigger a head and shoulder pattern (again, this pattern shows the transition from a lower high to higher low in this case). Await for the break and close of the 0.8600 zone.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
The end of the positive, pressure on the pound & BoEThe US and China have signed documents for the first phase of the trade deal. It would seem that this has been expected for a very long time and this is an excellent occasion for a mass exodus from safe-haven assets and another injection of capital into risky assets. But it was not there. Gold yesterday was more than comfortable, and the Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market stopped pouring. The reason for this market behavior is that most US tariffs on Chinese goods will continue until the second phase of the agreement is signed. So, we can again recall the slowdown in the global economy as a result of trade wars, and the ghost of a global recession has become more tangible. In general, we continue to recommend the purchase of safe-haven assets. The inability of gold and Japanese yen sellers to use their main reason to intensify the decline in prices for safe-haven assets very clearly signals their weakness. Another pretty important event yesterday was the publication of inflation data from the UK. Unexpectedly, for most experts, inflation slowed to a three-year low (annual consumer price inflation in the UK fell to 1.3% in December from 1.5% in November). Considering that the issue of lowering interest rates by the Bank of England has recently been actively accelerated among analysts, now there are many more reasons for this. Actually, many are waiting for a rate reduction this month. Formally, the pound is a strong bearish signal. But we will not rush to sell it anyway. Recent events show that Brexit has been and remains the main driver of the pound's dynamics. It is news from these fronts that can provoke the formation of directional movement in pound pairs. And since Brexit is going according to plan so far, we see no reason to revise our recommendation for pound purchases intraday and medium-term. Recall that with favorable developments, the growth potential of the pound paired with the dollar is about 1000 points. From yesterday's data, it is worth noting also the weak data on industrial production in the Eurozone: -1.5% with a forecast of -1.0%. In this light, recall that the EUR/JPY pair is still at excellent points of sale. Today, all financial markets are focusing on US retail sales data. We will prepare for weak data, and accordingly, we will look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market. The best candidate for this role is the USD/JPY pair. We consider the dissolution of the Government in Russia and the plan to redistribute the system of power in the country as an excellent opportunity to sell expensive Russian rubles. The usurpation of power from the point of view of modern history has rarely led to something good for the country's economy.
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: With US-China Done, All Eyes on Brexit Now!The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy, particularly in South Africa today? Market participants will now look at the EU and UK for a resolution on the Brexit front. Will the House of Lords prevent a January exit? And how will the EC react about an 11-month transition if they won't? Watch our analyses on euro-pound and the SA rand! Timestamp EURGBP 8H 02:15 USDZAR 8H 04:45 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
6
EURJPY Long IdeaHi everyone, with the next trading week coming up, and market opening tomorrow, here is a trade idea I've got for you guys. EURJPY Long Fundamentals: EUR: has been doing ok, good numbers for countries in Europe coming out, so I would see EUR as pretty bullish JPY: with the US-China Phase One Deal being agreed on, and as per some sources, will be signed on the first week of January 2020, JPY is bearish Technicals: I do see a good entry point here, retraced to 61.8% level, getting rejected a little bit, so all depends how market opens tomorrow on Sunday, might be a good addition. As always, I might make mistakes, nothing is 100% so please be sure to comment your opinion so we can discuss. I am open to any discussions and any opinions.
Long
by jimnakmtl
EURJPY Short IdeaHi everyone, here is a small idea I have: EURJPY Short. JPY in my opinion is getting a little bit stronger considering the tensions that are a little bit rising with the US-China Trade War. Also, JPY has released some good numbers these past couple of days, like GDP, etc. so in my opinion JPY is Strong. EUR in my opinion is a little bit neutral, I don't see anything good or very bad for them, so I would say EUR is neutral. I am open to other opinions, so please comment if you have any other opinions or ideas on this trade.
Short
by jimnakmtl
GBPAUD Long IdeaHere is an idea: GBPAUD Long. Why you may ask, here are a few reasons: - UK General Elections on December 12th (current predictions are Tories winning the elections, and market wants Tories to win) - December 15th Tariffs (Trump still hasn't taken a decision on what to do with December 15th tariffs, most likely I believe he will keep them as tensions has started to rise a little bit between the 2 countries) - China (CNY) Exports numbers weren't very good, and by direct correlation AUD gets also impacted negatively as AUD and CNY are partners. Let me know what you guys think, any comments, fell free to let me know.
Long
by jimnakmtl
GBPUSD short - as Brexit and a possible rate cut coming closerHello guys, As we can all see everyone in the UK was so excited about taking a direction on the 13th of December so price has been pumped up to 1.35 where reality (a.k.a Boris Johnson and his Brexit plan) kicked into our teeth and started a sell off the British pound. By Christmas the sellers cooled down a little bit so the market could finally started a retracement. By the New Year it could re-test the Fib61.8 level then few days later the Fib50 without triggering another major push to the downside so I am expecting the price will re-test Fib38.2 to fully complete the retracement with a possible fakeout of the descending trendline, where I believe we should keep our eyes on if we are looking for a low risk short position targeting 1.28, the bottom of the October - November consolidation area. Alternatively we can also watch out for another low risk entry point if the market breaks below the 1.30500 level and turns the support of the retracement into resistance. Thank you for reading my analysis, please push a Like if you think it is useful or leave a comment either you agree or disagree with me.
Short
by eszge100
1