GBPUSD - Daily chartGBPUSD is fast approaching a very strong resistance level at 1.317, which is where I want to look to enter short on this pair.
This could also be the 3rd contact made on a forming trendline from the high in 2014.
My first target is 1.28 and I would wait to see a break below the ascending dotted line to confirm a further drop.
Fundamentals are playing a large role in all GBP pairs recently. So please be cautious and only take trades like this if you have already surpassed your weekly/monthly target gains.
Brexit
GBPUSD 4H short Idea Short Selling Idea
from : 1.2929 - 1.2905
TP1 : 1.2710
TP2 : 1.2520
Stop Loss : 1.3040
This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell
It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action
Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of
the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision .
To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully
the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or
commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital .
Good luck >>
EURAUD and GBPAUD primed for Aussie Q3 Data.I have spoken about the EURAUD pair last week, but the trade was triggered on the break and close below the neckline. Market structure showing us a confirmed lower high.
We are now back retesting the breakout zone which is normal and expected. One can enter here with a better risk vs reward, or the conservative approach would be to await a new confirmed lower high which would mean a break and close below 1.6150 zone.
GBPAUD is one that has frustrated many, but the trade was NOT valid until we got the break below the flip zone/neckline. Our patience may finally be paying off.
It looked like we were going to break out, but we reversed. This is another bearish sign. However, the zone of 1.8910 is still the one we are watching. This has not changed. You can see we did retest it but did not break it.
It does seem like we are going to make a lower high here in a head and shoulders type pattern. Again, the lower high is only confirmed with a break below this neckline zone!
We do have Q3 Aussie data today. It is a high risk event. The market expects economic growth of 0.5%. Be careful of this event. It will occur before a 4 hour evening close so this data could definitely be a catalyst for the Aussie to continue, or break out for the GBPAUD.
GBP/NZD buyers pushing price upHi traders.
Here we have an interesting setup in GBP/NZD.
The pair has completed a pullback to a daily support zone and is forming a indecisive doji candlestick in today's trade.
The level aligns with the 38.2% Fib level, and the daily RSI shows a hidden bullish divergence.
Zooming-in to the 4-hour chart, we get a nice bullish wedge pattern with the price retracing at the lower wedge support.
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GU: Daily consolidation remains useless for opportunities Out of all of the pairs this is fundamentally the most unpredictable. I think that playing around with the pound this week is risky and manipulation could occur and be obvious. Always remember there's no limit to how many fake outs can happen with a setup so make sure you wait until it has confirmed the true direction of price action. We'll be favoring a weaker pound at current levels.
US records, Trump irritates Sino & Johnson is ready to celebrateMost Americans, as well as financial markets, received the day off from work on Thursday, therefore, we can focus on other financial markets.
In today's review, we will focus on the oil market. Recall that next week the OPEC meeting should be held, which could potentially change the existing balance of forces in the oil market. But we will talk about this meeting later.
Now let's focus on the current state of affairs. Oil growth last week was highly dependent on optimistic news about the progress in negotiations between the US and China. Accordingly, traders worked out a possible increase in demand in the oil market.
But, as we already noted in the previous reviews, the markets are already tired of promises and waiting for results. Accordingly, oil growth stopped.
The participants in the oil market can be understood, especially considering that Trump has nevertheless signed a law to support protesters in Hong Kong. Potentially, this could cause a new round of escalation in relations between the USA and China and another breakdown of the negotiation process between the countries.
At the same time, statistics from the US come out bearish. First of all, it is about the USA reaching a new record in oil production: 12.9 million barrels per day. The result was an increase in US oil reserves, which in aggregate puts pressure on oil quotes and not only does not allow the asset to grow but also pulls it down.
Our position in oil is as follows: we look for points for selling the asset on the intraday basis and sell oil in the medium term (current prices are quite favourable for this).
But lets back to other news and markets. According to a YouGov poll, conservatives will win and get the vast majority in the December 12 elections in the UK. This means that Johnson will have every opportunity to ratify his Brexit deal. Thus, the probability of exit without a deal has become even more insignificant. For the pound, this is undoubtedly good news. Recall that its growth potential is far from exhausted. We are talking about 500-1000 points of the possible growth of GBPUSD. So we continue to recommend buying a pair.
EU: Daily neutral setupNo trade for the Euro yet this week (yet), as we continue to deal with illiquid markets that are not allowing any opportunities to be taken advantage of yet this week so far. I'm ideally bullish for the Euro based on a technical perspective, but the fundamentals are why I am neutral until we get a decifson of price action for the Euro this week. Hopefully it will be today or tomorrow. Weekly downside target is 1.09 if 1.1 is broken. Weekly upside target is open as I think there is a lot of upside to the Euro if 1.1 is rejected. I expected an entry soon.
PREDICTING THE MARKET BEFORE IT HAPPENSAs we can see here, there is an enticing level of so called resistance on the daily and the 4 hourly chart. Price has moved away from this area and novice traders have gone short. It is very easy to predict where stop losses will be. Notice the decreasing volume as price shorts away from the "resistance". If the collective amount of people doing the same thing moved the market, the move and volume would be much more drastic. Only big institutions and news moves markets. I expect people who shorted to soon be taken out and a manipulation occur, however with all the Brexit news around the GBP I'm being cautious.
China makes concessions, Johnson's manifesto & Societe forecastsOn Monday markets were waiting for the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, a positive signal was China's willingness to increase the punishment for violating intellectual property rights. China's regular violations of these rights that particularly irritated the United States and largely hindered negotiation progress.
Information about the victory of the Democrats in Hong Kong also helped to relieve tension in the financial markets, as there is hope that this conflict can be resolved peacefully.
Against the backdrop of such news, the decline in safe-haven assets seemed quite understandable on Monday. However, while we do not see any reason for global repositioning, we will use this decline in gold and the Japanese yen as an opportunity to buy safe-haven assets cheaper. Moreover, there is a “Trump factor”, which literally can turn the situation upside down. For example, sign the bill on human rights and democracy in Hong Kong or blame China for intransigence, etc.
In addition, the global crisis is still potential. For example, analysts at Societe Generale expect a recession in the spring of next year. According to experts of the bank, the next recession in the United States will be triggered by a sharp reduction in company profits, which, in turn, will be caused by the rapid acceleration of labour costs.
Yesterday was pretty successful for the British pound. The fact is that on Sunday, Boris Johnson has launched his party’s manifesto, in which he promised before December 25 to submit to the parliament an agreement on Brexit, agreed in October with the EU. According to surveys, the Conservative Party is now supported by 42% of voters, and the Labor Party - 29%. That is, with such a scenario, there is no risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal, but the growth potential of the pound is far huge. So we continue to give preference to purchases of the pound, but until the announcement of the election results, we do not expect strong directional movements in the pound and recommend adhering to oscillatory trading, that is, buy the pound from hourly oversold zones and sell from hourly overbought zones.
As for our other recommendations, today we will sell a pair of USDJPY, buy EURUSD, and also sell oil.
ORBEX: Brexit Hopes Up on Tory Lead, Trade News Fail to Lift FX!In today’s market insights video recording I talk about the pound rally and how the cable is likely to perform now that polls show a comfortable Tory lead!
I also explain why #Aussie isn’t moving higher while risk-on mood increases high-beta bets amid the latest #tradewar headlines that a deal is indeed possible before Christmas! What are markets waiting for?
Watch what Elliott waves have to say!
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
BT - Dialling upBuy BT Group (BT.A.L)
BT Group plc is a communications services company. The Company is engaged in selling fixed-voice services, broadband, mobile and television products and services, as well as various communications services ranging from phone and broadband to managed networked information technology (IT) solutions and cyber security protection.
Market Cap: £18.96Billion
BT has broken out of a channel pattern on the daily chart. The breakout move has retraced 50% of the impulsive move higher and retested the broken channel. The shares appear to be stabilising around 185p, while the Conservatives remain in the lead in the opinion polls then the shares could continue higher in relief of avoiding the threat of part nationalisation from a Labour Government.
Stop: 181.6p
Target 1: 212p
Target 2: 230p
Target 3: 265p
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GBPAUD Set Up for a Massive DeclineGBPAUD is making a series of (i)-(ii), i - ii, wave pattern which usually leads to subsequent decline.
On the higher timeframe, price is sitting at a key resistance level that lined up with 50% Fibonacci retracement of the weekly decline.
Price has the potential to sell-off from or near the current level and should not breach at least the major invalidation level indicated on the chart to remain valid.
What's your thought about GBPAUD? Kindly let me know in the comment.
Thanks for reading!
Veejahbee.
eurusd potential extention wave The eurusd has been on a consistent downtrend over the past couple of years and it looks like that is likely to continue.
However, the impulse buying could see apossible extension to the upside.
The lowest possible price in my opinion, if you are looking at minimal risk (for buys) is 1.0990 (stop loss 10 pips)