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Brexit

GBP/CHF We Will Not Be FooledYou are not going to fool the bears of the GBP. That Brexit deal is not going pass through parliament. It is worse than May's past deals and has received criticism from big-time pro-Brexiter Nigel Farage: "not great, not new, and NOT Brexit." High volume showing resistance around 200-Day SMA. Just because the rest of Europe likes it doesn't mean it is favourable for the UK. Bets are on for the deal to collapse as usual. We will not be fooled by the recent bull trend, we are better than that. With all my confidence, realize surprises do happen, so let's proceed with caution.
Short
by TogamiTrader
1
Brexit Catalyst for Equity Trade?Before I get into the trade idea, I need to preface that I still believe that US equities will be going higher in the longer term. Not really for any fundamental reasons, but more so that the world is in a bad place and the US looks the best, albeit having a lot of problems. Martin Armstrong calls the US and the US Dollar the prettiest sister out of the three ugly sisters. Also, there will be nowhere to go for yield. We know QE (or QE but not calling it QE is coming) and interest rates will be dropping to 0 because central banks are out of options. Check out my posts linked below where I talk about all these things...predictions are coming true and we are truly in the reset/crisis. With rates at 0, we are at the 'paradigm shift' environment that Ray Dalio has spoken about. Bonds are now being traded not for yield but to sell to another bigger fool. Real Estate historically goes up once the first rate hike occurs. You do not take a mortgage out when you know rates will be dropping lower later. Stocks will be the only place for yield and not only that, the liquidity in this type of macro environment will be appealing. You can get in and get out relatively quickly. So onto the short TRADE idea. Markets are still being affected by geopolitical and other uncertainties. This will affect equities in the short term, but again, as a fund manager money has to be deployed. You cannot hold cash for a long time. This money will go to work and I predict it will go into stocks for the yield factor described above. We found out today at time of writing this idea that Brexit will be delayed until January. I have mentioned how Brexit will likely not happen. It will keep getting delayed and we may very well see a re-vote. There are 3 reasons why Brexit will likely not happen: 1) The British politicians who are part of the European Parliament lose their 6 figure jobs and pensions. Not in their best interest to leave. 2) There will be a European economic/debt crisis. The German taxpayer will not be able to bail out Europe all by themselves. The British tax payer will be required to help. 3) Most importantly, Brexit sets a precedent. European nations like Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal may get inspired by a deal. Anyhow, the charts are setting up nicely for a move lower. We have been in an uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows, and then price began to stall at a resistance/flip zone or in some cases near all time highs. For the SPX, we are seeing an exhaustion it appears. Would ideally like to see a break below this flip zone with a pattern like a head and shoulders. The Nasdaq already had the break. Would like to see a retest with a confirmed lower high and lower low. Nice strong break. The Nikkei is showing signs of a trend exhaustion here. Need to see if we get the break. The China 50 already had the break. Awaiting for another swing (lower high). The German Dax is at a crucial resistance/flip zone that you can see on the daily chart. Showing signs of exhaustion and potential reversal here. We should cover the FTSE as well, but honestly, no real good pattern/set up for me on the lower time frames. The Daily still has a crucial level below.
FX:SPX500Short
by Uncharted-FX
2
EURUSD - Anticipating another pushThe weekly and monthly upside projections have been reached. Price very often would start to retrace at this point hence that is what I am anticipating. I am bullish of the EURUSD hence I am looking to buy the dip at these liquidity pools I have identified on the chart. Sometimes, after hitting range projections, the price also can go sideline for a period of time and continuing the trend. I hope not because I want to get on to this bullish train but I don't want to chase the price either (hence waiting for pullbacks). If the institutions want to keep loading their dollar shorts/euro longs, a pullback indeed a necessary procedure to get more bullish liquidity by consuming sell orders in the downside. In over 13 brokers, the aggregate ratio between long and short for the EURUSD is 70:30. 70 for shorts, 30 for longs. There are no economic data for both Euro and U.S, but there is a brexit risk and U.S China Trade talk PLUS there is the EU Summit going on right now.
Long
by sufiansaid
DO NOT HOLD GBPAnother week is coming to an end and we have had some immense volatility across GBP pairs. We have some heavy GBP data this evening AFTER market close which has a high probability at showing if there is going to be a deal in regards to Brexit. With that being said, it is HIGHLY advised to close ALL GBP positions, as the future is unknown and come market open, we could potentially see a gap at 100 pips and beyond. If you are on the wrong side of the trade, it doesn't matter where your SL is placed, it will close the trade at market open, so for those that are new to trading, the consequences of not following this advice, could end up with you having a blow account! *Always take a look at an economic calendar like the ones provided by FXStreet and DailyFX. If there is big news coming out over the close of the market, it is always best to stay out of the trade!
Education
by wakethesheep
Is EURUSD about to reverse??Today is important. So is tomorrow. This market has been in a steady downtrend for some time now, with regular oscillations indicative of healthy profit taking activity. Both the US and European markets are going through turbulent times manifesting in US/China trade talks, calls for impeachment over alleged improper presidential activities and last minute negotiations over Britain's departure from the European Union. Today, the EURUSD market ascended into a cluster of potentially strong price/time barriers. This could certainly be another interim high leading to a continuation of the downtrend. Let's go through some of the key features of this chart with our standard series of Analysis Points (APs). AP1) The first indication that the market could be about to reverse is its proximity to the 0.5 retracement level. This comes from the Fibonacci levels, shown in yellow, which are obtained by dividing the range from the point labelled C and the point labelled D. The letters are in pink. AP2) Observe the downward sloping solid lines of red and cyan. They are the product of a pitchfork using points A,B and C in its construction. The market has been responsive to these trendlines , including the median line often enough to place some degree of confidence in them as price barriers. Notice that the cyan trendline extending from point C in the pitchfork coincided with the 0.5 level from AP1 at the current time in the yellow circle. Now we're starting to see some confluence in signals. AP3) This is a simple one. The green line which is generally falling throughout this chart shows a 100 day moving average. It too coincides with the barriers from AP1 and AP2 in the yellow circle. This moving average has potential to act as resistance as the market rises into it. It has provided support and resistance on a number of occasions in this chart. AP4) Finally, consider the stochastic oscillator shown at the bottom of the chart. It is set to highlight points where the oscillator exceeds a reading of 90 or is below a reading of 10. Today, it is at the highest level shown in this chart. The stochastic has only been close to this level twice before in this chart and on both occasions, the market's uptrend became exhausted and reversed. These are shown by the white dashed vertical lines. This cn be considered another bearish signal. There are a number of significant barriers for this market at the current price and time. Remember that this market is in a downtrend so the bearish bias of these signals coincide with the trend sentiment. Today's close price could be a significant indicator of how the market will respond to this cluster. However, be aware that Monday could open with a gap following what may be a shocking weekend for investors, particularly surrounding Brexit. If the market powers through this barrier and breaks to the upside, it could be a sign of bullish strength or of a market that is adjusting to new information. The next few days of price action will be very interesting.
Short
by Quantium_Research
Dax - Long Upside PotentialThe Dax was able to finally break the resistance level at 12488 on the 11th of October, and the news of a potential Brexit deal being agreed between the US and the EU led to the Dax to surging up to 12800 yesterday. Therefore, we expect the DAX to continue rising towards 13000 but we believe there will be a significant amount of volatility and potential downside if the Brexit deal is not passed through the UK parliament this weekend. Consequently, we see the index moving higher as long as prices don't pass through the previous resistance level at 12488.
XETR:DAXLong
by KQMarkets
1
The supreme test of pound, China's GDP & US retail salesYesterday Brexit turned a corner. The Prime Minister got the European Union to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU said to would never renegotiate. The British pound, as we expected, hit a fresh five-month high above 1.30. But after that, many buyers decided to take profits, resulting in a rebound of the pound more than 150 points down. The reason for taking profit was both about 1000 points per week, which, for example, could be earned in the GBPUSD, and fears that Brexit deal might fail again. Parliament is expected to sit on Saturday in what could be one of the most important Commons’ sessions of the entire Brexit process. Recall ones the agreement between the EU and Great Britain was already agreed, but the country's parliament voted “against”, as a result, Teresa May resigned and everything had to start all over again. If the story repeats, then the further development of events can be quite unpredictable. That is why many decided to take profits, and it is difficult to blame them. The fact is that the current version of the treaty doesn’t quite satisfy the Irish Democratic Party. And without their support, Johnson is unlikely to gain enough votes. As for our position, so far it is unchanged. We consider such bounces of 150 points as an excellent opportunity for purchasing. If the Parliament votes “for”, the pound will simply be doomed to further growth. It will be 200-300 points or 1000 is difficult to say, but pound purchases will live up to. If Boris fails that will certainly trigger massive sales in pound pairs. This option must be borne in mind and do not forget to put stops. You can safely sell the pound if he loses. The US, meanwhile, continues to show weak macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday, data on industrial production not only came out worse than forecasts below 0. The statistics on the real estate market did not please either. In general, we see an increasing number of reasons for the sale of the dollar. And today we continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Of the other statistical news, it is worth noting today's data on China's GDP. The indicator reached 6% (with a forecast 6.1%). Industrial production growth rates (went above forecasts) and retail sales (within the framework of forecasts, but in a good plus). In this light, our recommendation to buy safe-haven assets continues to be relevant. So today we continue to look for points for purchases of gold, as well as the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX:GBPUSD,EURUSD -A Real Brexit Deal, OR Another Failed Vote?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #GBPUSD #FXMajors! Pound Bid on Brexit agreement with EU. BoJo nee's to break DUP and opposition resistance and get deal through Parliament. Expected over the weekend! Euro supported by positive news and despite Germany revised GDP downward. Risk appetite up in general with #Aussie, #Kiwi, #Loonie all up! Meanwhile, the #EUSummit continues. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBPAUD SHORT at multi-month channel resistance and 50% fibFavorable risk-reward short during last minute Brexit deal chaos. Stops just above 50% fib retracement (from Aug '15-Oct '16). Price is at 1.9000 Technical Analysis: - Psychological level 1.9000 - Multi-month channel resistance (since Mar '18) - Just under 50% fib retracement at 1.9080 (from Aug '15-Oct '16). - MACD, RSI showing extremely overbought signals (on daily, 4hr, 1hr) Fundamental Analysis: Risks: Last minute Brexit deal may drive price above 1.9100. However, even if there is a deal, it is unlikely that it will pass parliament emergency sitting on Saturday. From there, either extension (more-likely, could be GBP positive or negative) or no-deal (less-likely and extremely bearish GBP). TP: 1.7650 (+1250 pips) SL: 1.9100 (-100 pips)
Short
by simplejack
Oil price torn between Brexit deal and inventory dataThis week there was a huge surprise US oil inventory build (10 million barrels, 3 times the analyst estimate) due to US sanctions against the shipping company COSCO. However, we also got a Brexit deal today. Oil has been struggling to decide which way to move on all this news. The trend appears to be downward, but it's not confirmed until it breaks below the triangle. Oil is a short only if and when it breaks below triangle bottom.
FX:USOILShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
Threats on the horizon, EU summit & hidden intervention of JapanToday we are talking about a possible demarche by the Irish Democratic Party and, accordingly, the text of the treaty that could be not approved. Therefore, the GBP movement stuck. On the one hand, growth needs to be continued, because on brink of Brexit deal, on the other hand, everyone suddenly realized that the deal still has to be approved by the Parliament of Great Britain. This has already happened with Theresa May so the growth of the pound has stopped so far. Also, a positive sign following the results of today's summit of the European Union may well overshadow the concerns for a while. So today we will continue to buy the pound, but with an eye on the outcome of the summit. Its failure will be a sentence for the pound (at least temporary) and it will be sold out. Another rather unexpected threat was the announcement by China that the country is ready for countermeasures if the US Congress provides legislative support to protesters in Hong Kong. Given the already difficult and still incomplete trade negotiations between the United States and China, this could become a stumbling block in resolving trade wars. In the light of such news and market concerns, today we will continue to look for points for safe-haven assets purchase (gold and the Japanese yen). As for the yen decline this week, Goldman Sachs explains its weaknesses with purchases of foreign assets by the Japanese State Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), which put pressure on its currency. But in general, this is a form of hidden currency interventions. Interventions by the Bank of Japan may provoke the United States to ask the Bank questions, but also it seems like there is no manipulation. Worth noting the weak data on US retail sales (-0.3% with the forecast + 0.3%). The dollar naturally was under pressure. Recall that we remain bears, so today we continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD: Slowing Bullish Momentum & Bearish Wave hey traders, after a massive buying reaction last week we see that GBPUSD is slowing down. rising wedge formation is a very good indicator of weakening momentum. More the market contracts within the pattern, higher the chances that it will break to the downside. I am waiting for a bearish breakout of the wedge to short the pair. Market most likely will set a lower high before the breakout. Target levels are 1.265 1.255 Stop above the highest point of the wedge
Short
by VasilyTrader
2