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Impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, Sino & Johnson resignStatement by US President Donald Trump that the agreement with China could be concluded “earlier than you think.” let to the volatility on the financial markets as well as gold. Considering that in the last six months there has been more than enough speculation on the topic of negotiations between the US and China, we have not rushed to draw conclusions and work not with rumours, but with facts. The facts are no specifics will appear before October. So lower gold value yesterday is a great opportunity to buy it today. But, of course, we do not forget to set up relatively “hard” stops for purchases and watch the news. British Pounds lost a half and a hundred points to the US Dollar. The reason was the growth of uncertainty around Brexit, a potential domestic political crisis and the general confusion of the country's politics. The fact is that after the Parliament, according to the decision of the Supreme Court, returned to work (3 weeks ahead of schedule), Johnson's chances of resolving the situation with Brexit until October 31 sharply decreased. And the British opposition, meanwhile, is waiting for the moment to strike ( a vote of no confidence in Johnson and his resignation). The most successful moment for the attack will be on October 17 at the end of the EU summit. If it becomes clear that there is no agreement between the EU and Great Britain, Johnson will receive his vote on a vote of confidence. So, why the pound is falling is clear - Britain is sinking deeper into the chaos of uncertainty. For our part, we will continue to buy the pound, as current events practically negate the option of “hard” Brexit. Another scenario is the next postponement of Brexit, a new referendum, new elections, etc. - Which is a positive sign the pound (in the context of Brexit). If the pound reacted with dropping against the backdrop of political news yesterday, the dollar was growing. The scandal surrounding Trump's telephone conversation with Zelensky is intensifying. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the House would begin formal impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Against such a background, recommending buying a dollar would be strange. So we will continue to look for points for the dollar sale. Another important news for the dollar will be the publication of statistics on US GDP for the second quarter. But we draw the attention of our readers that this is the final reading. Accordingly, the probability of any surprises is small. That is, support for the dollar should not be expected. But a revision even insignificant in the direction of reduction may be the last drop that will overfill the markets patience. In the oil market, everything is developing accordance with our forecasts a decline in oil. Saudi Arabia will return to its usual volumes production ahead of schedule. At the moment, production has already reached 11.3 million bpd (a week ahead of schedule). So the incident with a drone attack and a sharp drop in oil supply is over. The price of oil, as we predicted a week ago, returned to levels before the drone attack. As for the future, the accumulated inertia may well be enough to reduce oil. So our position has reached its planned goal, as a whole remains unchanged - we give preference to oil sales. But now you need to do this more carefully. Especially in light of the news that Saudi Aramco plans to go public IPO next month. That is, attempts at price manipulations in the oil market shortly are more than likely.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: USDTRY Makes A Difference! EURGBP How Much More Down?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURGBP and #USDRY #EURO and #POUND pressured from Stronger DOLLAR: - Following Trump transcript release - Partial deal with Japan - Close US-Sino deal Trump comment - ECB's Germans board member quitting #EURO also pressured from: - Spanish PPI - US-EU tensions - EU-UK tensions #POUND also pressured from: - BoJo's comment to leave whatever it takes #TurksishLira supported by: - Weaker oil - Positive sentiment after IMF report Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
GBPUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Sep19,Wk3A bearish shark setup for a selling opportunity in this trend trading setup. A shark pattern can have up to 3 entry price so is important that you have learned it right. I may not engage directly and need further confirmation. Before market close GBP related pairs appreciate across the board, have to have some read up on Brexit related news to check on the development. Is either you pay a little to a good coach or pay a hell lot to the market and you may not figure it out, your choice.
Short
by RaynLim
Britain & US "race to the top” eventfull countryThe Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson suspended UK Parliament unlawfully. Also, Johnson gave the Queen illegal advice to suspend Parliament. On the one hand, the news is not good for the pound, because it means another domestic political crisis, on the other hand, such a court decision should lead to Johnson's resignation. The pound has recently followed the rule "what is bad for Johnson, good for the pound." So from this point of view, yesterday's pound growth just looks very logical. The weakening of Johnson’s position means a chances decrease of a “hard” Brexit. For the pound, of course, the news is exceptionally positive. So we will continue to observe with interest the chaos in Britain, but at the same time, our recommendation to “buy a pound” does not lose its relevance. However, you need to be careful. It is worth noting buyers activation of the euro against the statistics background from Germany. Indices of economic expectations from the IFO came out better than expected at fairly good marks. However, it is still too early to rejoice. Rather, this growth provides an opportunity for euro sales at relatively good prices. Yesterday the US dollar was under pressure in the afternoon. Weak consumer confidence data is the reason for that. Conference Board consumer confidence index showed a value of 125.1 with a forecast of 133.0 in September. Our recommendation on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for the dollar sale. Moreover, the scandal surrounding Trump Zelensky’s call seems to be gaining momentum. The chances are low, but buying a dollar against such a background is still extremely dangerous, especially considering its current prices. Yesterday, the markets were reassured by the news that China guaranteed the American soybeans purchase at no additional cost. What can be seen as a kind of positive signal on the eve of the main meeting between the US and China next week. However, judging by the dynamics of gold, investors prefer to believe the facts. Accordingly, we do not observe serious threats to our recommendations to buy gold in the area of local daily lows. Moreover, Trump once again made it tenser. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he accused China of a good half of mortal sins. There are no major changes in the oil market so far. Fears of another hurricane in the United States, expectations of recovery in Saudi production, as well as developments around Iran. Well, in the meantime, oil prices follow in the direction we have indicated. Recall from last Tuesday, after an increase of 15% last Monday, we recommend selling oil.
Long
by Trade24Fx
XAUUSDLooking for the targets above to be reached. Fundamentally - Brexit along with global recessions are on the cards which will strengthen XAU. Technically - Bearish structure on 4H time frame has been broken however looking at M time frame we can see higher prices looking exhausted. Long term i would like to see 1700 reached and above that will confirm bearish structure broken on the higher time frames. I have added to my positions and will be looking for XAU to hit 1530 as a more immediate target but ultimately higher targets i also want to be taken out due to fundamental aspects as well as some technical, we still have a week left to see some more bullish action before a potential reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by LitCap-Vell
2
GBPUSD: End of A Suggests B,C For Structure CompletionI have been bearish on GBPUSD since prices broke below the psychological $1.30 barrier. The current minute structure suggests that corrective wave b is underway since minuette wave (v) ended. b minute could be either an a,b,c or a w,x,y, however likely to pullback down to 1.2121/2171 Fibonacci zone. The upside potential could be limited to 1.2644, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci expansion of the 1.1960-1.2383 corrective minute wave a. Unless if the base low was the end of minor wave 5 and now GBPUSD reverses. that would turn the potential a,b,c into an 5-wave move. Should bears take over once again minor 5 will be underway! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
1
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD On The Move!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD #Euro down on: - Disappointing German Manufacturing PMI (actual 41.4 vs expected 44.1 vs previous 43.5) - ECB could have made a mistake talking somewhat 'neutral' - Draghi's speech hinted to high uncertainty, decision-making harder and harder #Yen down on: - Disappointing Japanese Manufacturing PMI (actual 48.9 vs expected 49.8 vs previous 49.3) - Potential stimulus measures - Potential US-Iran deal #Dollar up on: - Trade talk optimism - Markit Manufacturing PMI (actual 51 vs expected 50.4 vs previous 50.3) #Pound down on: - Thomas cook sentiment - Parliament prorogation sentiment - Barnier's pessimistic comments Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Repo-injections in the USA, Brexit optimism and other resultsWe have already written about the results and the Fed’s decisions, the Bank of Japan, Switzerland and England in a previous review. We only note that mood is “dovish”, which creates a favourable background for the gold growth, therefore, we continue to buy the asset this week. As for the USA repo market. A shortage of liquidity in the money market provoked the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for the first time in 10 years to resort to liquidity injections. We are talking about tens of billions of dollars a day. So far the dollar on the foreign exchange market reacted calmly, the problem may well be aggravated. Too large volumes of US government bonds are pumping dollars out of the US money market, which stimulating dollar infusion by the Fed. Whether it turns on the money machine at full capacity or a new round of quantitative easing is not clear yet, but for the dollar, it is an alarming signal. Our position on the dollar is also unchanged so far - we are looking for points for its sales. First of all, against the Japanese yen and the British pound. The last 3 weeks have been extremely successful for the British pound. Its growth against the dollar, counting from the beginning of September, reached 600 points. The last time such an impressive rally was observed at the end of 2018. Brexit is the reason for all the troubles and joys. This time, a series of defeats of Boris Johnson in Parliament led to the fact that the markets believed that there would be no withdrawal without a deal. This in turn sharply increased the chances of successful negotiations with the EU. This is also supported by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker comments that the Brexit deal could be concluded before October 31. But not everything is decided, this week is likely to give the pound several reasons for volatility. We are talking about unresolved problems with the Irish border, as well as the decision of the Supreme Court of Great Britain regarding the legality of the suspension of Parliament. Our position on the pound is still unchanged - we will look for points for purchases of the British currency. But we will do this from relatively conservative points. Friday showed that the pound can not only grow but also fall. Last week was extremely busy for the oil market. The drone attack on the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia not only led to a 50% drop in oil production but also triggered a panic in the oil market. The result is the one-day oil growth record in history (an increase of about 15%). However, the very next day, Saudi officials assured that by the end of September production volumes would be restored. Even though now some imbalance has arisen in the oil market, given its temporary nature, we recommend oil sales. Comments from Arabia on the restoration of production ahead of schedule is likely to return oil to the level at the start of last week. And this means that 5% is the potential oil decline.
by Trade24Fx
1