Get started

Brexit

EUR/GBP A Key Area!An interesting pair to watch over the coming days with Brexit now agreed and the European commission passing the deal through, the pound was expected to rally. Instead we've seen low level movement a no real sing of any strong direction and established trend. This morning we saw the FTSE open up indicating more stability in the market place, but as the financial markets were not mentioned in this deal we have heard rumours of banks pushing towards towards talks of negative interest rates again. One thing is for sure the deal was not a good one for the UK and early reports suggest will have a largely negative impact over the coming months.
by Orion-Markets
GBPJPY - Bearish ButterflyI know a lot of traders has these rules of not getting overexposed in a single currency, I am not against those thoughts, but you have to ask yourself if you are trading a fixed pair or you are free to choose what you feel like trading. If you are trading a fixed pair, just like me, my take on this is, if the trade setup within your rules and not against the fundamental analysis then you have to take it. You see in this trading setup we have a Bearish Butterfly that broke the previous high, previous structure or you may even call it a break and close above the previous structure, while GBPUSD(link at the bottom) has a Deep Gartley Pattern setup within the consolidation zone without break previous structure. I'm waiting for candle confirmation to engage this counter-trend trade.
Short
by RaynLim
GBP/AUD short 200 PIPS PREDICTIONPRICE action is stalling in this resistance area . if we see further rejections when markets open then we can take a nice short position for 200 pips+ if price does not make more rejection then we will not enter. dont be hesitant and enter the trade without seing further price action especially in the lower time frames. suggestion: wait for a 15m trendline break , look for lower swing highs. wait for london session and see where and how the technicals align together. if price keeps pushing further up without rejections then do not enter just be patient.
Short
by KibukCapital
EURUSD-Weekly Market Analysis-Dec20,Wk5On the 4-hourly and daily chart, EURUSD displays a bullish trend, but on the 1-hourly chart, it has a sideways consolidation. Having my trading bias towards the upside, I would prefer that the market break and close above, and I can resume my bullish trade, but the truth about trading is that the market doesn't care what's your preference and it moves the way it wants. So, I'm going to observe on candle close and plan my trade on this. In both scenario, once the market break and close beyond the trendline, that's my target profit level which allows me to place my stop at entry attaining a risk-free trade.
by RaynLim
GBPUSD - Brexit drama? How can I trade GBP? GBP - What a great currency - I say it's like marmite you either love trading this currency or hate it...It's been a tricky pair due to brexit drama. I remember trading on demo account when Brexit was announced shorting it with a good well established friend of mine in Africa...It was great fun even on a demo you do learn a lot as yrs go by . Now I do have a nice real portfolio I manage, and I look at GBP and all that comes into my mind is first is go and look at monthly chart and secondly - 1.40 could be coming shortly....! It's a very headline driven market for now However, let's not get carried away let me break it down for you. Technically we are bullish within the monthly - which I will go through my yr ahead outlook video of 2021. There are so many bullish formations for GBP that reaches towards 1.40 area, but we need to pass 1.36-1.37 areas first those are next resistance areas and the daily close we got above 1.35 technically we are BULLISH! But does this mean you just get in now? Well no, go to lower charts find a good entry point using price but I am now going to speak about fundamental impacts on Brexit. (Use your own trade plan) Fundamentals: I know, I know for yrs we've been talking about this Brexit - Will it be over by 31st December or will we continue into 2021?- Sure I won't be working on Christmas day only day I am taking off but I will be looking at my desk looking to see updates, fishing out any information I can get - I would recommend you to even invest in a good squawk service head-lines will be coming out and the price of GBP the moves be interesting, keeping a good amount of stop I would recommend for this pair for now. I feel if we do get deal the euphoric energy will come in we should hit 1.40 areas but then I do have other views where I feel at 1.40 things could take a turn and if we don't get deal sure GBP will decline - Now, why 1.40 Why and how will take a turn? - Well, wait for next week for my 2021 outlook tune in - I will be explaining further why!! Also keep in mind if we do get QE from USA - that will increase GBP and other majors too. Lets see what congress does....! If you are interested in the UK market - Check out my FTSE100 analysis post as well! All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
4
🎓 EDUCATION 2: STOP Trading (Only) with Technicals ❌Happy Thursday traders! It’s time to continue with our Educational Series on how to become a successful trader with a professional trading approach. It's holiday season, and closed markets mean more time to sharpen our trading skills! Let's go... In the last post, we touched on the main ingredients of a successful trader (check the link to "related idea"). Let’s reinforce those again: 1. Market Analysis – Your “Analyst” side. Here, you are going to combine Fundamentals, Intermarket analysis, Sentiment analysis, and (the correct) Technical analysis (FIST approach). 2. Trading – Your “Trader” side. Once the analyst in you spots a promising trade idea, the trader in you is responsible to execute the trade with proper entry and exit levels. 3. Management – Your “Manager” side. Every trader is a risk manager. Your manager side is responsible to manage your trade and risk levels, scale in and out of positions, open the correct position sizes, evaluate the reward-to-risk of your trades, etc. Alright, so far we are still covering your “Analyst” side. Your analyst side determines whether you will buy EURUSD, sell GBPJPY, buy gold, and sell silver. It’s the part of your trading that constantly scans for profitable trade ideas and setups in the markets, and passes them on to your “Trader” side. Why You Shouldn’t Rely on Technical Analysis? The majority of new traders I see in the retail space place too much attention on technical analysis. They search the internet for TA articles, look for the “holy grail” indicator, read dozens of technical analysis books, but still don’t manage to improve their trading performance. The truth is, they don’t understand the markets. I don’t care how many TA books you’ve read in your entire life, if you don’t understand how markets work and what moves prices up and down, you won’t succeed as a trader. Unfortunately, almost every retail trading website promotes and publishes those articles, because they are attracting clicks of inexperienced traders. Here is a hint: When I worked in the trading department of a large European bank, I didn’t even look at charts. There are almost no charts and no indicators on the trading floors of big banks and hedge funds! Do you really think that banks will move hundreds of millions into a trade because the 50-day MA crossed the 100-day MA, or because the price formed a Head & Shoulders pattern? The first time you do this in a bank will likely be your last day as a professional trader. So why do retail traders trade like that? Because they don’t know of better ways to trade. No one has taught them that trading based purely on technical analysis will never work. It’s in nobody’s interest to teach you this because large market participants need the “dumb money”. Yes, they make a profit when you trade badly and lose money. So, what’s moving the market if it’s not technicals? The Forex market is the marketplace for the world’s currencies, and currencies are influenced by supply and demand. To be more precise, interest rates influence currencies, with higher interest rates increasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to higher prices) and lower interest rates decreasing demand for a currency (therefore leading to lower prices.) We as Forex traders are interest rate traders. We trade currencies based on (short-term) views about their future interest rates. For example, let’s say the market expects higher inflation rates (inflation represents the change in the price of goods and services during a year) in Australia, which could lead to a response from the Reserve Bank of Australia by hiking interest rates. This will create demand for the AUD (remember, global capital is always chasing yield), which in turn would lead to a higher exchange rate of the AUD. If you only followed technicals and identified a bearish divergence on the RSI in AUD/USD - and you entered short - it’s your fault. The pair would likely move higher on higher interest rate expectations in Australia. So, when do technical levels work? When the market trades in fair value (in fundamental equilibrium), you’ll find that simple technical rules work. If large market participants agree that the current exchange rate of a currency pair is “fair” given the current fundamentals, smaller players may move the market when the price reaches a support or resistance level, or when the price breaks above or below a triangle. Unfortunately, markets are always in a state of flux and rarely in equilibrium, so following other analytical disciplines (besides technical analysis) will improve your trading performance dramatically. This chart shows the Band of Agnosticism. This band represents a span of exchange rates where fundamental-based traders are unlikely to join the market because the market is already in a fundamental fair-value zone. As the exchange rate starts to approach the upper or lower band, fundamental-based traders (which happen to be large banks and hedge funds) start considering opening new positions. The volume of their orders pushes the price back inside what is considered fair value. Professional traders first look at a variety of other factors before they decide what currency pair they want to trade. Once we identify a good trading candidate (our “Analyst” side does that), then it’s time to open the chart and find areas where we could enter with a long position (and those are not trendline breakouts!) We will cover all of this, step by step, in the coming Educational posts. Don't forget to FOLLOW to receive all future trade ideas and educational posts! Happy holidays everyone. 🎆
Education
by MujkanovicFX
1
FRESH short signal on the EURUSD Daily chart. My long term trend following model just spat out a fresh EURUSD signal. The signals take price/time inputs exclusively, and involves an initial 'headfake' filter and then requires confirming momentum within a certain timeframe before signaling. EURUSD, GBPUSD, and EURGBP are all very much in play given the recent COVID developments in the UK, as well as BREXIT talks. As you can see from the image the signals aren't bang on all the time, but produce excellent risk reward when they pay.
Short
by CSC1
GBP/AUD SHORTGA could possibly go to 1.75000, right now I see a 3 pin price just finished creating 2 candles ago on the hour timeframe. I wanna see what price does at the 200 ema below but if price closes under that then I believe price will go to 1.77000 after and so fourth. Also following the parabolic sar rule price closed under the sar and never retraced under it so that also gives me bearish indication. Right now price is balancing between going under and over 1.78000. Another confluence I have is price just recently top at 1.78800+ which is around the high of a previous New York session which is why I have the green box above. Also looking at volume below there is a lot of bearish volume, which only help the bias even further. Let me know what you guys think about GA below
Short
by lobfxempire
2
GBP/AUD SHORT prediction.fundamentals: -brexit coming to an end very soon with a small chance of a deal going together -another wave of covid in the uk technicals: -price action keeps stalling the upside -price resisting this area multiple times -head n shoulders pattern reason for this trade to not play out: banks might rise the price to take out sellers if the sell is too easy then bring price back down -very risky to trade right now, the market seem to be not responding to technicals as clearly and just alot more volatile.
Short
by KibukCapital