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Brexit

GBPAUD: Where From Here?Expecting GA to drop before making a U-turn to the upside and potentially rally up to 1.8400 in the process. If I do get my entry at 1.7500 I'll be looking at collecting 900 pips if everything goes according to plan. There's a lot of fundamentals surrounding the Pound at the moment as there were news that surfaced on the weekend about Mutant Coronavirus Strain, Brexit No-Deal and London going back to full lockdown, I think it's fair to say not everything will g smoothly in terms of my analysis after all this is Trading there are never guarantees. Fortunately should things go south there is a way out as I make sure risk management comes first before anything else. My advice to anyone who's looking to make it here in this business is for them to make sure they do apply risk management in their trades at all times. Btw an idea I posted Friday on GBPUSD is currently going according to plan Check it out. If you've got any questions comment below.
by DYongs
Follow-up: Will the USD start recovering or what!?Hello traders! I hope you are having a good week. We will follow up on the analysis from a few days ago talking about the recovery or fall of the US dollar. We can see how the market ends up confirming the bullish flag pattern, also breaking the weekly resistance (in blue) located around 1.2200. It is still possible that we are facing a false breakup before a dump, recovering the aforementioned area as a resistance, so, in case we want to get into some trades, an alternative to reduce risk is to use cost averaging techniques, taking a small operation and increasing it little by little. In my opinion, while the market remains above 1.2200, the bullish plans will continue to be viable, being able to reach 1.2300 as an initial goal since it is a psychological level, or even carrying out a rally towards 1.2400 - 1.2500, an area in which we have a weekly resistance that hasn't been visited in years. Regarding the dollar index $ DXY, from our analysis in which we took a look at how it had behaved in recent weeks, we can see how it has simply continued its bearish course. It recently broke the psychological zone of 90.00, however, it is a too recent break to be able to trust it, since, at the time of writing this idea, it has barely pierced it for a few cents. Now, with respect to the fundamental factors that are possibly supporting the weakening of the US dollar, we have a similar scenario to the one mentioned in previous ideas. In short, the US Congress remains silent on the new stimulus packages for COVID-19, resulting in uncertainty, causing the dollar to weaken. Another point that we must consider is Brexit, since the latest news suggested that the possibility of an agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom, a situation that has positively affected the Euro and the Great British Pound. However, a no-deal Brexit is still possible, which would bring volatility to the Euro and the Pound, so if we plan to trade these pairs, we must take that into account. Leave in the comments what you think of this idea and what is your perspective on what is happening in the markets. Whether you’re gonna sit on your hands and just watch the market or start taking trades, remember to always plan your trades and trade your plan. Happy weekend folks!
Long
by FernandoBorea
GBPUSD. BEARS OR BULLS? HERE'S MY VIEW...It's no secret GBPUSD has been bullish lately and might say the bulls still have a room and I absolutely agree. But after my analysis I have come to a conclusion that we might see bears taking off next week and possible the week after too. in the next 2 weeks we might see a great retracement to the downside until price reaches around 1.3150, which is where I'm planning to take my long trade at. Right now I'll look for an opportunity to capitalize on this fall I'm seeing happening. 4 Hour timeframe will be a good one to spot that opportunity. One thing you must note is that I won't force trade just because it'll go down but I'll look for an opportunity that'll fit with my risk management criteria and align with my entry rules. Got a question? Share it below.
Short
by DYongs
GBP/JPY Falling: Multi Resistance & BrexitGBP/JPY is following the drawn wedge since the early days of 2020, reversing every time it hit either the upper or the lower trend line. Not only is the wedge holding strong, the 140 area is holding up as well: the price failed to close above 140 for the eighth (!) time now. Combine the above with the failing Brexit talks, and we have a recipe for disaster on our hands. Im considering Support 1 and Support 2 as potential exits, but feel free to do your own DD.
Long
by FieryTrading
3
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend. With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Breaking Out?📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 - EURGBP This line illustrates how we can attempt picking a fight with the winning side. It is a characteristic for confidence to see price getting rejected each time it dips below 0.900x, while when above, buyers have the ability to roam anywhere, they are in full control! Here the weakness is isolated to the UK and it is worth considering to play against EUR, USD and JPY in particular. The GBP outflows is now such an abused line that we can comfortably play on various crosses at the same time. Aiming for a test of 0.922x to be resolved initially before anything else. In order to keep maintaining the advantage, buyers should look to pick up pace on the technical break as all resistance will be damaged. UK and EU have had their say...Now it is the markets turn. I am aiming to keep the short-term flows coming in-between the LT and MT chart updates as I know many here are not interested in macro charts being posted into the tradingview ether. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | Notes on GBPUSD📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 17.12.2020 ==> What we must track here is the buyers playing $1.360x and reaching overdone levels. The exchanging between UK and Europe is coming to an end, meaning the focus can shift towards the complete 'liberation' of the UK from which it was previously 'restricted'. So, in such cases, when a country loses market access the central bank gets bogged down with devaluation, and in these cases it means we should be able to employ offers with the same stratagem from when Johnson was initially elected. This sort of tendency to going down and roll back up the whole swing, is what I would call the cleansing of the board. It is a move which is aimed at whiping the ladder and opening up the dominating (and appropriate story) at the time which is the well being of the UK and woes of which will determine the actions. A very plausible move we played earlier in the month, and of course after the bounce up I am sure there is hesitancy to play it again. Now I am looking for signs of a top at $1.357x / $1.360x and the threat of a hammer down is greater than ever. GBP buyers have not played very economically and are hung by a thread of support. Sunak announcing the furlough package any minute, this expensive fiscal deal is far from any stretch of the imagination a conservative policy... The exploitation of the terrain up here, namely the squeeze, will force all soft hand retail to close and into a state of confusion. Stay alert, avoid the noise and play the leg down...we might get the waterfall for Christmas. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
GBP/USD - Pushing For a Pre-Brexit BreakoutThere's been no lack of optimism in the markets around the prospects for a Brexit deal in recent months, despite the ultimate deadline now only a couple of weeks away. There have been signs of nerves creeping in the last couple of weeks but broadly speaking, it's clear there's a sense of "the Boris who cried wolf" about all of this. Despite all the threats, the warnings, the claim that an "Australia-style deal" - otherwise known as no deal - will suit us fine, a deal is overwhelmingly the preferred option. And to be fair to the Prime Minister, these disingenuous claims haven't just been coming from his side of the negotiating table. The one time there's been a real sense of worry was heading into the weekend when leaders' claims a firm decision would be made Sunday. And I'm sure the fact that the markets wouldn't be open then fed into the movements in the currency on Thursday and Friday. So here we find ourselves, trading right around a two and a half year high, just waiting for the moment when both sides will acknowledge that a breakthrough - THE BREAKTHROUGH - has finally happened. But that immediately makes me wonder, if markets are so convinced it's going to happen anyway, how much upside can we really be looking at? Obviously that's incredibly difficult to say, especially when the knee-jerk reaction could be quite extraordinary, driven by a number of factors that go beyond just what the fair value now is. Can it break above 1.40? I'm not so sure, that may be a step too far. And let's fact it, a 3.7% move (from current levels) is quite a move in the FX markets, especially for something that's already priced in. Sure, we could find ourselves there in a few months, especially given the direction of travel of the dollar. One risk right now is that we get a big jump on any announcement, quickly following by a lot of profit taking, with the currency giving up a sizeable portion of those gains. It's going to be extremely volatile and, who knows, it could even end up back where it started, or lower. It's also worth remembering that the US is in the midst of stimulus negotiations itself. Not to mention this evening's Fed decision which could even threaten this level if the Fed makes a bold move. It's going to be the pair to watch into year-end.
by OANDA
GBP/USD Update: Trading Brexit (FIST Analysis)Happy Tuesday traders, here is an update on our GBP/USD trade that was closed in profit today. FUNDAMENTALS News that the UK has reached an agreement in principle with the EU led to a sharp spike in GBP pairs. However, the liquidity area between the 50% and 61.8% Fib level keeps holding. An agreement in principle is not a trade deal yet! INTERMARKET 2-year yield differentials are still looking depressed, pointing at further weakness in the pair. SENTIMENT Besides the bearish positioning of large market players in GBP, the option market also shows large demand for GBP/USD puts, signaling that markets protect against downside risks. The pound is also the worst performing currency of the current trading day, despite the seemingly positive Brexit news. TECHNICALS I have faded the bullish spike around the 50% retracement level and already locked profits. Still, there is further downside potential, with the first target at 1.3224, and the second at 1.3138. If you find this post useful, please hit the "LIKE" button and let me know what you think about the pair in the comment section below! Thanks
Short
by MujkanovicFX
Brexit dark clouds are still here no matter what - GBPCHF SetupUK and EU might seem to find a common path after latest talks but Brexit is a fact now, and the Pound won't come out unscathed after 31st December. Even a deal takes place, the economy of UK will be harmed. GBPCHF is an example of how investors will probably be willing to move their funds to CHF after Brexit to seek for a safety shelter. It's not a secret that Switzerland was always a shelter for the bad days. History won't be any different now. Prepare up. On a more technical aspect, GBPCHF lastly topped just below 1.22 providing a resistance that bears could rely on to capitalize. This was followed by a bearish wave sequence 1-5. Currently, we find price completing the 4th wave. That means that latecomers jump in the market, and initial positions are increasing, providing more bearish pressure for the Pound vs Swiss Franc. 1.20 is considered to play a catalyst role, on if this setup will be accurate and reliable or not, for two major reasons. 1) It can play the role of a psychological support as a big figure or 2) It could be a "locked level" that cannot be surpassed as wave theory's principal talks about the fact that Wave 4 "DOES NOT" overlap Wave 1 territory. With these - fundamental and technical reasons - being mentioned, I expect further bearish progression, aiming a major channel support that can be see in the chart below.
Short
by GeorgeZii