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Brexit

Three Possible Brexit Trade Deal ScenariosYet another extension. The initial deadline of last Sunday for the post-Brexit trade negotiation has just been extended. In a released joint statement after their call on Sunday morning, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen felt that it is responsible for trade talks to continue beyond the deadline but did not state how long the talks will continue for. What have been resolved so far? Although the three sticking points of fisheries, level-playing field and governance remain, that is not to say that no progress has been made. Last week, the UK and the EU have come to an agreement in principle on the issue of Northern Ireland border checks. Both the UK and the EU have agreed that no checks will be required for goods moving between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland as the former will remain in the EU customs unions and single market. Instead, border checks will be required between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Apart from this issue, the UK government has also agreed to remove the controversial clauses from the Internal Market Bill. Those clauses would allow the UK government to ignore parts of the Northern Ireland protocol requirements which is a breach of the Withdrawal Agreement and international law. Three trade deal outcomes and how they may impact GBP/USD. Looking at the chart, we see that the announcement of the departure of UK from the EU back in June 2016 has plunged the GBP/USD down to as low as 1.20. Since then, GBP/USD has been trading below the 1.34 handle for most of the time. Several attempts were made to break beyond that handle but were to no avail. At the moment, GBP/USD is hovering around the 1.34 handle. Scenario One – A free trade deal is struck The ideal scenario. In the event whereby both the UK and the EU arrive at a free trade agreement, GBP/USD has a potential upside of up to the 1.40 handle. This still fall short of the level GBP/USD was trading at before the Brexit announcement was made back in June 2016 as the UK economy is still under pressure caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, for GBP/USD to break above the 1.40 handle will require both a containment of the pandemic and a strong recovery of the UK economy. Nonetheless, it will be very challenging for this ideal scenario to happen given that the Brexit transition period ends in two weeks’ time. Furthermore, the finalized trade deal will also have to go through the UK and European Parliaments before it can be carried out, thus leaving less time for a deal to be established. Scenario Two – A partial free trade deal is struck with an extension of negotiation into 2021 This scenario is probably the most realistic one out there. It is no longer a surprise to anyone following the Brexit saga that a deadline will end up getting missed. No doubt 31 December is a hard deadline. But, given that the leaders of both countries are still pressing on for a free trade deal and that not establishing one is a lose-lose situation for both countries, they may come to a mutual agreement to strike a partial deal for now and carry on the negotiation into 2021 or, they may end up with a subpar deal (that is better than trading under the WTO terms) and put it up to the respective Parliaments for approval next year. Either way, the outcome will be positive but the upsize is limited to the 1.36 handle since there is still a level of uncertainty in the completion of the deal. Scenario Three – No free trade deal is struck The ultimate disappointment. Failing to establish a free trade deal would mean both the UK and the EU will be trading on WTO terms. What this would mean essentially is that tariffs will apply as stated in the WTO terms while border checks are mandatory, potentially creating traffic bottlenecks. This scenario will most likely send GBP/USD crashing to the 1.27 handle or lower if the COVID-19 situation in the UK continues to worsen since the costly tariffs will definitely add more burden to the current economic trauma. With time running out, Brexit headlines are bound to be the limelight in the media. Also, volatility in any pound-related currency pairs is expected to be high. Soon, we will know in which direction will GBP/USD be heading towards.
by JinDao_Tai
1
MTF killer zoneThis is a MTF killer zone, its drawn when yesterday or the last period closes, it so powerful. The way I use it is buying and selling as a support and resistance (but it's not support and resistance ), or at a retest when it break, and if it not being touched by the price today or in the current period ... than the zone will be still valid for any time in the near future (3 to 4 days or period in the future). You can use it as a target if you already have an open position in the market, or use one time frame for entry and other for target. I can send for you on request different time frame key zones, such as monthly and also good for yearly. I recommend major pairs, also any other financial instrument ( Commodities , indices, bonds, and equities). Enjoy the setup please! :)
by ghattas360
LONG THE EARLY BIRDWE SPOTTED A GOOD OPPORTUNITY ON THIS, BUT EVEN A GOOD OPPORTUNITY CAN FAIL.. SO FAR ACCORDING TO MY DETAILED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WE LOOKING AT A GOOD RR CATCHING EARLY TRADES IS WHAT I SEEK FOR. RULES ARE BREAK EVEN AND OR TAKE PARTIAL PROFIT WHEN MARKET CREATES A NEW HIGH. FOLLOW YOUR ENTRY RULES NOTHING LESS. AND TIP FOR THE WEEK, WHAT EVER INDICATOR YOU USE FOR ENTRY WAIT UNTIL IT TELLS YOU, YOUR FIT FOR THE DIRECTION AT YOUR ENTRY TIME FRAME IN MY CASE 4H, 1H , FURTHERMORE, IF YOUR ENTRY IS BASED ON BREAK OF PREVIOUS HIGH MAKE SURE YOU APPLY BREAK EVEN ONCE PRICE IS ABOUT 20 OR MORE PIPS IN FRONT. PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THIS IS BASED ON TECHNICAL ONLY, WHICH ISN'T THE ONLY FACTOR TO MOVE A MARKET, DON'T TAKE THE TRADE BLINDLY, MAKE SURE ITS IN CONFLUENCE WITH YOUR OWN IDEAS. ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. HOWEVER I WILL NOTIFY YOU WHEN I HAVE ENTERED IF MY CHECKLIST DEMANDS ARE MET, MY ONLY ADVICE IS RISK 1% PER TRADE OF YOUR ACCOUNT. GOOD LUCK PLEASE FEEL FREE TO ASK ME ANY QUESTION PRIVATELY, ILL ANSWER AND ASSIST AS SOON AS I CAN. "GROWING A BIG BALANCE IN FOREX IS DEFINITELY HARD AND MOST FAIL, BUT IF YOU KEEP OVER RISKING IT WONT HAPPEN IN A DAY EITHER. ALWAYS KEEP IN MIND THE 3 PILLARS TO SUCCEED IN FOREX IN THIS ORDER ARE 1. PHYSIOLOGY (HARDEST) - 2. RISK MANAGEMENT (MODERATE) - 3. TECHNICAL (EASIEST)"
Long
by LEO-O-CARA
GBPUSD: Major Reversal Cont'dGBPUSD had one of the biggest weekly falls in 3 months after yet another rejection at the 2.5-years major supply zone 1.34 area. It was forming a bearish Gartley in the daily timeframe while, at the same time, completing the 5th motive wave of a 9-month Elliott wave. The pound is constantly under pressure due to breakdowns in Brexit talks which is most likely going to persist on throughout December. Therefore, this week we could continue to sell GBPUSD by waiting for the pullback towards the current supply zone at 1.33 area.
Short
by AlgoVenture
*BULLISH* 6.5% breakout to $61.90 target by New Years *full disclosure* I have a 28,000 CHF long position in RET* Retail Estates is an underappreciated European retail REIT that is primed for a substantial technical breakout this December. Please take the time to look over the technical analysis, which is purposefully decluttered to provide a utilitarian analysis of the overall forecasted direction of the share price. The fundamental analysis is far more appetizing since the REIT is likely to be a pillar in my portfolio, similar to how SGRO was over the last 5 years. Similar to SGRO that focused on commercial real estate on the periphery of town, RET does the same for retail outlets, except instead of encompassing the UK and pan-Europe, they specialize in Belgium and the Netherlands. As COVID-19 vaccines are set to roll out across Europe, the smaller countries are likely to be more efficient in distribution than the larger ones. Furthermore, Belgium is home to the ECB and the Netherlands is home to the International Justice Court, and with Brexit underway, these are two highly English proficient, international countries that are likely to benefit from a "no deal". Work culture is ultimately shifting to stay-at-home, but the office in the center of town will remain a cornerstone of any business. RET's retail outlets are perfectly suited to take advantage of this new trend as more people live on the periphery of towns and make trips into town on a ad hoc basis. All in all, given the technical and fundamental analysis, I am bullish on the stock. Thank you for reading and considering my analysis. Yours Sincerely, Turner Capital Management
EURONEXT:RETLong
by TCM_Group
CHF/JPY Falling Quickly from Critical ResistanceCHF/JPY failed to beat it's summer high of 117.7, leading to a massive decline in value. Not only did the resistance hold strong, the RSI showed bearish divergence as well, making the decline even more powerful. Combine all of this with the terrible Brexit news, and we can expect a strong decline of CHF in the nearby future. Im considering Support 1 and Support 2 as the main targets in the nearby future, feel free to do your own DD.
Short
by FieryTrading