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Brexitargets

Euro Weakness EURGBPAs the UK comes out of lockdown and the economy re-opens I expect that the GBP strength will continue. Next level is a 4% drop in EURO value against the GBP, 400+ pips, trading from the weekly chart. My stop levels are large, but will still only be 1/2% risk for me. The total trade is a 2.74:1 risk reward (slightly under my minimum 3:1). I like the feel of this trade from a price/trend continuation point of view and fundamentals. Let me know what you think? Could we push even lower to pre-brexit levels?
Short
by MSI_JAL26
GBP USD to 2021 - Brexit YesHello traders and analysts. See our chart for a Brexit 'Yes' whereby, the fishing stumbling block seems to be the major mover for a 'Yes' before the new year or a 'No'. The USD will continue to see a deepening soft dollar, which is what the US want right now to keep pushing the stocks into 2021 with cheaper import/exports as a major player. Furthermore a cheaper dollar will boost 2021 visitors to the US and see Gold rushed to as a hedge of inflation. GBP we have a weekly, monthly zone towards 1.50 as our target for a position buy. First target is the zone below. If, a deal is not reached - the initial downside sell off will be 1.30 and beyond 1.26 sees a good area for further sells for a 2021 target in January, Feb provided a least resistance path. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY - Brexit yes to 145+Outcome for a Brexit 'Yes' vote. As we come into the holiday season - there is important volume to note here, however the major players are positioned for either way. We have the purple buy zone, which price has seen a nice consolidation with some rejection wicks. Using the fibonacci - we have our level targets at -0.618 to hit the monthly zone at 145.5 and our first target at -0.272 at 143.4 zone. Provided the probability seeing further buying power. We will see a huge engulfing candle. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP/USD could DROP sharply!Hey Tradomaniacs, GBP/USD is back in range❗️ Has all this been a fakeout? The previous peek is showing a low open-interest which is why POUND could need another pullback due to a lack of bullish momentum. In confluence with negative brexit-news we could get a very strong impulse to the downside as soon as GBP/USD breaks out of its range. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Short
by Trading2ez
5
Brexit All you Need to Know about the UK Leaving the EU 🍃📌 Brexit: What happens now? The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and is now in an 11-month transition period. During this period the UK effectively remains in the EU's customs union and single market and continues to obey EU rules. However, it is no longer part of the political institutions. So, for example, there are no longer any British MEPs in the European Parliament. 📍 MP's back Boris Johnson's plan 📍 What is Boris Johnson's deal with the EU? Future trade deal Negotiations on a trade deal with the EU have been proceeding for several months. The UK wants as much access as possible for its goods and services to the EU. But the government has made clear that the UK must leave the customs union and single market and end the overall jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Both sides say there a still significant areas of disagreement - for example, on EU proposals for a so-called "level playing field", which would see the UK and EU maintain similar minimum standards on things like workers' rights and environmental protection. 📌 Brexit: What is a level playing field? The deadline for the two sides to agree an extension to the transition period has now passed. If no trade deal has been agreed and ratified by the end of the year, then the UK faces the prospect of tariffs on exports to the EU. The prime minister has argued that as the UK is completely aligned to EU rules, the negotiation should be straightforward. But critics have pointed out that the UK wishes to have the freedom to diverge from EU rules so it can do deals with other countries - and that makes negotiations more difficult. It's not just a trade deal that needs to be sorted out. The UK must agree how it is going to co-operate with the EU on security and law enforcement. The UK is set to leave the European Arrest Warrant scheme and will have to agree a replacement. It must also agree deals in a number of other areas where co-operation is needed. It's also important to recognize that major changes will take effect on 1 January 2021 whether or not a trade deal is agreed. Free movement of people will end and businesses trading with the EU will have to follow new rules. 📌 What are the big issues at stake here? Top of the list is a trade deal to ensure the tariff and quota-free flow of goods between the EU and UK. But the EU will only agree to zero tariffs and zero quotas if the UK pledges zero dumping – that is, not lowering social and environmental standards to outcompete the EU. Negotiators will almost certainly clash over the EU’s refusal to bring services into the trade deal, leaving the City of London reliant on a patchwork of market access agreements that can be withdrawn at any moment. Another early fight will be over fish, as the EU seeks to link goods trade to maintaining the status quo on access to British waters, a demand seen as outrageous in London. The non-trade topics sound easier, but are full of political landmines. For instance, agreeing a replacement for the European arrest warrant will require Germany to change its constitution. The UK will struggle to achieve the historic first of securing outside access to some EU crime-fighting databases. 📌 What will happen to the economy? It depends who you ask. In the short term, much of the risk seems to have been priced in, at least on currency markets, where sterling still languishes compared to where it was in June 2016. The stock market is well ahead. 📍 Sterling is still down on its pre-Brexit vote position 📍 Shares have rallied recently, partly fueled by greater Brexit certainty 📍 Investment in UK business has fallen behind other G7 countries Share your Views and comments ideas below to make things more better. Thank you
Education
by Ridethemacro
Fundamental and Analysis: Pound is benefited from specualte news On Daily timeframe, we see a possible entry in short position!!! Now, the Daily's candlestick was closed with a bearish hammer inverted an that could's be a bearish signal. Now, on H4 timeframe we could to form a distributtion zone to sell Euro in the blue zone, that represent a monthly zone. So, the only what I hope is a next bearish candlestick to entry in short position in H4 timeframe. I do not analyze H1 here, because most enfocous in in Daily, and then, we see a possible drop of the price. Why a drop of the price??? Below of this paragraph I add the fundamentals key for the Euro and Sterling Pound: Fundamentals Keys: A. Euro: 1. Eurozone Industrial Production Data Fails to Impact Pound Euro a smaller than expected contraction in Eurozone Industrial Production failed to prevent the Pound Euro Exchange Rate from recoverying ground. 2. Euro is vulnerable to soptening German Economic Sentiment. *That data and point is strategist important to understood.* 3. The forecast point towards a decline in confidence on the month, dropping the index from 71.5 to 69.8 and leaving the single currency exposed to sell it. 4. The evidence that German economic sentiment is soured this month may fuel fears that some of the earlier momentum has already started to fade. 5. If the Eurozone's powerhouse economy fails to hold, that matter an initial bout of recovery seen in the wake of the covid-19 crisis the single currency coud falter. That mentioned a risk about the 2nd wave of infections rising any fresh signs of weakness within the Eurozone economy may drive the Euro to trend lower. 6. The Eurozone Industrial Production falls to -7.7% on July of the compared of 4.1% on June. That show a lower data of the Eurozone Industrial in all in the nation as manufacturer, jobs and a lot thing use as data to recopiled. 7. This despite a signs that the Eurozone's economic recovery may be slowing. That data showing that investor that a V-Shaped recovery was becoming less likely B. Sterling Pound: 1. Pound is benefits from growing opposition to UK's internal Market Bill 2. The mood toward to Pound picked up at the start of the week as market jitters over Boris Johnson proposed internal market temporaly eased. 3. Increasing domestic opposition to the bill, which violate parts of the existing withdrawal agreement, offered investor reason to buy back into the weakened Pound. 4. Althought it remains to be seem whether parliament will choose to vote down the bill this still encouraged hopes that relations between the U.K. and European Union could recover in the weeks ahead. 5. The demand for the Pound could soon falter once again as markets brace for the latest raft of the UK labour market data 6. The U.K. Government support withdrawals any uptick in unemployment data to heavily the Pound as the UK labour market set to the under increasing 7. On Thursday, there will be the meeting of the Bank of England about the U.K. monetary policy. 8. That still the Pound to making any significant gains agains its rivals in the near term Ok guys, in summary, I believe that we need to buy Pound because the U.K. government is prepared to support withdrawal the unemployment data to heavily and open the U.K. labour market, that could be the strategy that Boris Johnson wanting to plan soon and to go ahead of the Brexit deal while the Germany pass for the bad news making an Euro vulnerable Also, in the economical calendar we have tomorrow in the London Session these news for this par to look out: 1. Average Earnings Index + Bonus (GBP) 2. Claimant Cound Change (GBP) 3. Uemployment change (GBP) 4. German ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR) So, that news support more the Pound making a benefit about the week for the Pound. For tomorrow, I will going to check Euro/ U.S. Dollar to know, because if you noticed in my key fundamentals for Euro, there will be to starting fears of the second wave of covid-19 in the Eurozone and obviosuly the data of the Eurozone industrial production is failled as other data its became of pattern fears. Rememeber and more imporant, we need to stay alert of the price action!!!
Short
by harisonhbn9718
3
GBPJPY BEARISHAs we can see price struggled to break the bearish structure on the daily despite the bullish rally we have previously just had, i would like to see price now come down to at least 61% which for me i have marked this zone in green and the blue zone being 88%. Mondays are never really a day i look to enter markets but over the next coming weeks as we are also approaching brexit talks i would like to see the pound fall and in doing so mitigating candles below and filling imbalance.
Short
by LitCap-Vell
EUROUSD|BREXIT|TRADE|ECONOMIC GROWTH|PREMIUM[Short Term]ANALYSISEURO|USD: Episode (1 )- Series: Major Currencies and Currency Indices -18th of August 2019 (8-9 Minute Read) 3 Contingencies upon which the timing of this analysis is based on: Brexit (Finally) Happening in the next 6 months , similarly expecting a US/China Trade deal in the same time-frame, and of course later on Trump winning 2020 . I have to reiterate here, that I will never include any personal political opinions in my analysis- he is the current president( and most likely for 2 terms) . My primary job is to evaluate the impact of his administration on the markets. Since that's been said, let's start with the basics . Left chart is the Monthly EURUSD , right chart is the x2 Weekly Chart . While I was analysing the chart patterns and moving averages, the 2 weeks chart gave much better clues than the weekly one. With the 3 named contingencies, a probability model with expected values can be build which obviously can't be performed by an individual investor. Even if these contingencies do not play out the same way this chart is build on, the most value part of this analysis either way, are the pitchforks, MA trendlines and the wave/harmonic pattern labelling (Which EUR/USD will most likely continue to follow). Since most people on this page are traders, firstly I will go in detail on the x2 Weekly chart. Zoomed out x2 Weekly Chart Based on the drawn pitchfork, trading EURUSD in the last couple of months has been extremely easy. Until the deadline of Brexit(this October), I do not see a reason why this trend won't continue down to (Y) or further. The more difficult part to predict is the formation of the second (X). No matter how bad Brexit is to Europe, it will relieve pressure on the Euro. In addition, the current situation is already priced in, so once brexit occurs, after the initial sell-off I wouldn't be surprised if there is a shift of momentum to (X) . The most likely target range for (X) would be in between 1.14 and 1.16 . The longer Brexit is prolonged, the longer the current negative momentum will last. Lastly, 2020 is an election year in the US , and this will be a supplementary factor that might ease of the pressure on the Euro in 2020( Especially if a prospective Democrat runs versus Trump) . On this point, we will have to continue by analysing the monthly chart. Zoomed out, Monthly EURUSD Chart Q: With the current setup; Brexit and US/China Trade deal occuring, what will happen with the Euro ? -Primarily it will follow the drawn Monthly Pitchfork . When it comes to the Butterfly setup , it is just an idea that's the most logical in this buildup. Point (A) in the Butterfly signifies the rejection of the euro bulls attempting to re-enter the previous triangle and break-off from the ichimoku monthly cloud and the 100 Monthly MA(Purple/Orange line) . Furthermore, it can be observed from the Monthly Pitchfork , since the 2nd part of 2018, it is clear that the EURUSD has been trading within the 0.5 and 0.25 bands of the pitchfork. This is quite a long shot, but I am expecting another ichimoku cloud breakout rejection at (C) , followed by an election win from Trump. In this scenario, the EURO will temporarily end up below 1(0.95) against the Dollar at point (Z). Concluding this analysis , I am expecting a continuation of the ECB's dovishness and easing until a good portion of the European Banks collapse . On this point I am quite serious; how in the world does the ECB, expect European banks to be sustainably profitable in the fixed income divisions with such low rates ? The only way is to cut the financing and stop giving out credit, and end up in a typical "Credit Crunch" situation (That throughout history has been the most common cause for recessions) . Once a US/China deal occurs , the ECB would relatively keep being dovish compared to the FED- adding up additional pressure on the Euro . This is a continuation of my argument in my last thoroughly historical analysis of US Monetary policy(Linked as #2 down below). Oh and not to forget- there will be plenty recession uncertainties this autumn and the following spring(VIX Analysis, Linked #1). And let me be clear, NO ONE knows exactly how the markets will behave. (Give me your feedback people, don't be shy! If you disagree, that'll be even better; it'll just make up for a great discussion in the comments) |Step_Ahead_oftheMarket| >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! {Make sure to check out my previous ideas and my series on US( SPX ) Sector including 11 episodes of the major US sectors} 1. PART 1-VIX: Volatility Index 2. PART 2-FRED: FED SuperCycle Interest Rate 3. Series Finale ; Episode 11: US Utilities( XLU ) Full Disclosure : This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels. Wish that tview had a copy-right option, but it is what it is.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
10
GBP/JPY Bearish Swing Trade- Great Risk to Reward!The pound has been in a week state as Brexit concerns are still swinging their weight. Naturally the yen is going to be one of the safe havens that money will run to and I am looking for that flow to continue. I have two ways to enter this potential sell as I've shown it. Ideally we can look for a drawback and rejection at resistance to get a really good risk to reward for a bearish trend continuation. As an alternative we can set a sell stop below our current candle as we have it labeled and enter on a break of that support. I've drawn out major levels to take partial profit at and watch as we drop towards our overall target. If we fail to get our drawback and rejection, or a break below our alternative sell stop entry, this setup may become invalidated.
Short
by The808Trader
GBPUSD SHORTClear breakout of the triangle pattern presented to us by the market. before going too heavy on shorts, I am still expecting some pullbacks to occur. Another thing I am watching out for that could lead to potential USD weakness is the fact that the GDP data which is being released on friday might be dovish and cause a slowdown for the dollar. Nothing much is happening with brexit besides the fact that we are actually getting nowhere really with the discussions. This (I believe) is also starting to have a bearish effect on the pound as the hype is clearing up.
Short
by billionare_mo
No Deal Brexit Worse than Slower GrowthI've talked extensively on how a no deal Brexit is more likely here: This is primarily my reasoning behind why I'm neutral to short on EURUSD in the medium- to long-term (1 to 3 months). There's plenty of other good reasons to be short EURUSD including continued weak data releases from the Eurozone, possible continuation of a recession in Italy, and potential negative growth for Germany in Q1 2019. While I think that the euro can make some moves to the upside, it is still probably limited to the downward channel with short-term monthly resistance in spite of a break in this resistance last week. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3