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BRICS Summit 2024: Big Promises, Little Impact?Russia will host the BRICS summit in Kazan from October 22-24, where President Vladimir Putin will push for a new SWIFT-like payment system to challenge US dollar dominance. The group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, with further expansion on the table as nations like Thailand and Myanmar express interest in joining. As we lead into the BRICS summit, the Dollar Index (DXY), may be “overstretched” according to DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee, after appreciating more than 3% this month. However, Jim O’Neill, the former UK treasury minister who coined the term "BRICS" back in 2001 remains skeptical about BRICS. He argues that while the summits generate media attention, they rarely produce meaningful outcomes. O’Neill also points to ongoing tensions between key members China and India that get in the way of the block’s aspirations.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
CNY/USD Trend since 06 2007. Channel. Reversal zone.Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. At the moment, the currency is stronger than the dollar. The main trend is a descending channel. The price is in it now. Secondary trend — breakout of the descending trend line. Price growth to the median of the channel, and in case of its breakthrough, to the resistance. If not, then a pullback to the lower zone of the channel. Local trend — The nearest events and news background, which can affect (not necessarily) locally (movements to the median of the channel, i.e., the middle, if it is positive) on the yuan rate. This, in less than 1 month, namely from October 22 to 24, 2024 will be held 7.16 XVI BRICS summit (short for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) in Russia in Kazan. Line graph for visualization.
Long
by SpartaBTC
2
DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022 But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing. Often when commentators have given up on the idea of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction. Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear. These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop. 30% of the land and well over a 1/4 of global GDP Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
TVC:DXYShort
by BallaJi
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.⁠ ⁠ “IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council. ⁠ ⁠ Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.⁠
ECONOMICS:RUGRES
by Mr_J__fx
XAUUSD (GOLD): Why I'm still Bullish...Gold underpins the Chinese Yuan, it's underpinning the BRICS movement full-stop. Chinese economy is on the move... Recently, despite USD strength, Gold has maintained a HL, and I now see a reverse H&S forming. I expect FOMC to pause this week, and often FOMC is not the best for USD. I believe Gold has been forming a bull flag (which I calculate has been broken out of and retested), rather than a reversal of the current movement, at the very least it will re-challenge the ascending channel it broke out of. Gold seems ultra resilient despite dollar strength, a moment of dollar weakness (that I think we'll see this week) and I think it'll pump.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Finchcliffe
Long Brazil Energy CIGCompanhia Energetica de Minas Gerais CEMIG is a Brazil-based holding company engaged in the energy sector. The Company, through its interests in subsidiaries or jointly controlled entities, is engaged in the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity. The Generation division consists of the operation of hydroelectric plants, wind farms and photovoltaic plant. The electric power transmission business consists of transporting power from the facilities where it is generated to points of consumption, distribution networks and Free Consumers. Its distribution operation consists of transfers of electricity from distribution substations to final consumers. In addition, the Firm is also engaged in the natural gas distribution throughout the territory of the state of Minas Gerais.
NYSE:CIGLong
by noam_chom
BRICS Using.... BITCOIN ? 😨Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉 Bitcoin is now political. (if it wasn't already before, it definitively is now). In a recent development, official news leaked that that BRICS nations may look at using BTC to undermine the Dollar as a reserve currency. At the same time, many nations have drastically reduced their USD exposure. China's holdings of US treasury bonds decreased significantly to $835.4 billion in June 2023, marking a substantial drop of approximately $103.4 billion within a year. ( Despite this reduction, China remains one of the largest creditors to the United States, with Japan holding the top position at $1.105 trillion. ) Additionally, the BRICS nations, a group consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and now Saudi Arabia, are exploring the idea of using Bitcoin as an alternative to the US Dollar for international trade and exports . This suggests a growing desire among these nations to reduce their reliance on the US currency. Saudi Arabia, a new member of BRICS, also decreased its holdings of US debt by $11.1 billion during the same period, now holding $108.1 billion. These moves by BRICS nations reflect their increasing opposition to the dominance of the US Dollar in the global economy. Even though the bears have undoubtedly taken control of BTC short term, this is very provocative news that will definitely affect the Bitcoin price. The two main outcomes I see: 👉 Sellers drop the price lower to an entry point that is more acceptable for whale buyers in BRICS countries. BTC trades range for months. 👉 Considering USA holds most of the BTC supply by country, we see a price increase to make it harder / less affordable for BRICS countries to accumulate BTC. Lot's of volatility as BTC buyers vs sellers fight for macro dominance Although, having been in this space for a while, I'm leaning more towards the first option considering that was what happened when El Salvador made similar claims. As of March 8, 2023, Top Countries with BTC holdings are : 1) United States (805,810 BTC) 2) Russia (129,210 BTC) 3) Germany (108,150 BTC) 4) Switzerland (105,000 BTC) 5) Netherlands (88,400 BTC) 6) Canada (70,000 BTC) 7) United Kingdom (58,000 BTC) 8) Sweden (52,000 BTC) 9) Japan (42,000 BTC) 10) Australia (38,000 BTC) Ziad Daoud, Chief Emerging Markets Economist for Bloomberg, suggests that Saudi Arabia's (a large oil nation) shift towards riskier assets could influence the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, both domestically and globally. This could potentially lead to higher US interest rates. So where does this leaves you, as a Bitcoin trader / speculator? Not in a great place. With these new developments it may be harder than ever before to predict the direction of the price. My recommendation is still the same since weeks ago.. Altcoins. There are MANY better trading setups within the altcoin market that have better risk/reward setups. I personally won't touch BTC for the moment. ______________________________ Incase you missed it, previous relevant updates here : BRICS 2023 Summit outcomes : Capitalizing on BRICS nations stocks: _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
by CryptoCheck-
36
$DXY may be strong vs currencies but it's in trouble longer termWe've stated that TVC:DXY has been in danger for over 2 years. (Not here but on Twitter) The real purchasing power of US #Dollar has vaporized and has lost over 95% of its original value! The current system is on pace for a reset. Whether this is by design or not is irrelevant. There are trillions of dollars in derivatives, almost half was "compressed" recently to hide it, & debt. It's like tiny hole in a dam. - The Petro #Dollar could be on its last legs as Saudi Arabia wants to be a part of #BRICS. This alliance is gaining momentum. They are forming allies & many more want to join. Not only is #currency at play here but their dominance of the #energy market, which is critical, seems to be their endeavor, . #CBDCs #CBDC #GOLD #SILVER #BTC #Bitcoin
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Macro Economics- BRICS Oil Nations, GDPHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit was held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023. There have been some important updates that concluded from this summit and if you're an active trader / speculator in the Forex, stocks or commodities market, you NEED to know about this. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) now control 30% of the entire global economy. This is up from 17% in 2000 and 23% in 2010 . The BRICS countries are also home to 42% of the world's population. Incase you missed the previous article, find it here: BRICS Total GDP With New Members: B razil: $2.08 trillion R ussia: $2.06 trillion I ndia: $3.74 trillion C hina: $19.37 trillion S outh Africa: $399 billion Saudi Arabia: $1.06 trillion Argentina: $641 billion UAE: $499 billion Egypt: $387 billion Iran: $367 billion Ethiopia: $156 billion BRICS will now control 30% of the global economy. If you're invested in any BRICS related stocks or Forex markets, this concerns you! The summit outcomes are expected to lead to a weaker US dollar in the near term. This means that currencies against the dollar will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. The outcomes of this summit lead to proposed increased investment in the BRICS economies. This could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
19
Forex & Stocks: Capitalize on BRICS2023Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈💰 The 15th BRICS summit is being held in South Africa from August 22-24, 2023 and will undoubtedly affect the Forex market. The main reason for this, is the commonly know agenda of BRICS to implement a new reserve currency instead of the USD. More details on that topic here: The 5 Forex markets we'll consider are: FX_IDC:USDINR FX:USDCNH FX_IDC:USDRUB FX_IDC:USDBRL FX:USDZAR As we can clearly see from the charts, from a Cycle / Phase analysis, it is dire time for the USD to correct as we see top outs in basically all of the charts Don't be surprised if it goes UP first, then down (sell the news but in reverse for the BRICS currencies). The summit is being hosted by South Africa, which is the current chair of BRICS. The other members of BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The summit is expected to focus on the war in Ukraine, the global economy, and the expansion of BRICS. The theme of the summit is "BRICS and Africa: Intra-BRICS cooperation for sustainable development in Africa". Russia's President Vladimir Putin is not attending the summit in person due to the international arrest warrant issued against him for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. He is being represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The summit is expected to boost investor confidence in the BRICS economies. This is because the summit will provide an opportunity for the BRICS leaders to discuss ways to strengthen their economic cooperation and coordination. This could lead to increased investment in the BRICS economies, which would boost their growth prospects. Top Stocks to consider are: 1. Petrobras (PBR) is the largest oil and gas company in Brazil. NYSE:PBR 2. Sberbank (SBER) is the largest bank in Russia. MOEX:SBER 3. State Bank of India (SBI) is the largest bank in India. BSE:SBIN 4. China Mobile (CHL) is the largest mobile phone company in China. MIL:CHL 5. Tencent (TCEHY) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. OTC:TCEHY 6. Alibaba (BABA) is a Chinese multinational technology conglomerate. NYSE:BABA 7. Vale (VALE) is a Brazilian multinational mining company. NYSE:VALE 8. PetroChina (PTR) is the largest oil and gas company in China. SSE:601857 9. ONGC (ONGC) is the largest oil and gas company in India. NSE:ONGC 10. Infosys (INFY) is an Indian multinational information technology company. NSE:INFY The summit is also expected to lead to a weaker US dollar. This means that the other currencies against the dollar as listed on the 4 charts will strengthen. This is because the BRICS countries are collectively a major source of demand for commodities, such as oil and gold. If the summit leads to increased investment in the BRICS economies, it could lead to higher demand for commodities, which would put upward pressure on commodity prices and the value of currencies of commodity-exporting countries, such as the Brazilian real and the Russian ruble. This would make the US dollar less attractive to investors, which could lead to a weaker dollar. A great way to capitalize on the outcome of BRCIS 2023, is to anticipate and keep an eye out on markets that will potentially be positively affected by this summit. _______________________ 📢 Show us some LOVE 🧡 Follow for daily updates and trade ideas on Crypto , Stocks , Forex and Commodities 💎 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
Short
by CryptoCheck-
44
CAN BRICS Gold Standard Threat USD in Nearest Months?Last month there were several claims, and rumors, that BRICS will back its united future currency by gold. The return of gold as money has been heavily discussed by gold bugs for about the last 10 years. Below I provided their general thoughts: The gold bugs nailed that China and Russia have significantly boosted their gold reserves. The countries conduct independent geopolitical policy that contradicts the West. Dollar days are over. The White House sanction policy which escalated last 2 years combined with permanent US debt growth and dollar depreciation make it impossible to use USD in global trade, global investments, etc. The world needs to return to gold, because the last 50 years after Nixon suspended USD convertibility to gold, have shown that fiat is the pyramid of growing debt and continuous inflation. In other words, claims about the BRICS gold standard perfectly fit these gold bugs' dreams. During the year there were proposals for BRICS membership, from Algeria, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and many other developing countries from different regions. It is hilarious for me, that the acronym BRICS was coined by the British economist Jim O'Neill from Goldman Sachs. Today countries that oppose the West or conduct independent from the West policy, use the English acronym BRICS to describe themselves. West created BRICS (not only the acronym, but investments, favorable trade laws, etc.), and BRICS opposes the West. I see five internal pillars to establish gold-backed supranational currency. You need a united bank that will manage the currency gold reserves,i.e. the funds for the currency economic strength, that usually measured by GDP to compete with fiat and unfriendly regulations from non-block countries established robust relations in international trade between members or potential members supranational and national legislation that will regulate the currency without undermining national currencies, FX markets, monetary policy, etc. Several years ago BRICS established the supranational bank New Development Bank (the NDB). Possibly, it may become the alliance central bank and the issuer of gold-backed currency. Its total equity in the 1Q of 2023 was equal to 11.17 billion USD. It is big enough for private institutions from emerging markets, but not enough if you pretend to alternate the American dollar. The bank applies USD as its reporting currency. It makes sense if you do not oppose the dollar hegemony. According to the bank investor fact sheet, the bank is a bond market participant with high credit ratings, that regularly issues bonds in USD (again, hated dollar) and currencies of the members (CNY, RUB, ZAR bond programmes). The bank has adopted the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). It is a framework to provide liquidity during financial stress. To my knowledge, it wasn't used in February 2022- March 2023 when the Russian financial system and especially the ruble were under enormous pressure . Russia closed its markets and imposed currency control measures to cool off unfavorable trends. It highlights how uncoordinated and unhelpful BRICS is. One excuse may exist if other members offered Russia to use the CRA and it refused. You can say, that the NDB can easily increase its 11.17 billion USD equity using the gold reserves of the union. Let's move to gold holdings. The first pane, under the continuous gold futures price, shows BRICS gold reserves performance according to the World Gold Council (WGC). At the end of Q1 2023 the combined reserves exceed 5444 (5444.53) tonnes or 175.045 million oz. It is noticeably higher than all world gold demand, which was estimated by the WGC at 4742 tonnes in 2022. London Gold fix was 1963 USD/oz on July 21. Applying the price, the gold reserves of BRICS surpass 343.6 billion USD . The major share is provided by Russia and China. Russia held 2326 tonnes (42.72% of the BRICS reserves), and China possessed 2068 tonnes or 37.98% of reserves. It was followed by India with 794.6 tonnes or 14.5%. Brazil and South Africa held almost the same amount of yellow shinning metal: 129.6 tonnes (2.38%), and 125 tonnes (2.3%) respectively. It is the first striking difference that members have an uneven metal distribution that can undermine the future of a possible united monetary union . However, not necessarily countries would invest all their gold to create the gold-backed currency. Another drastic difference is in their GDP size . The merged GDP of the block was about 25.91 trillion USD in 2022 . China had 17.8 trillion USD, significantly exceeding others or accounting for 68.7% of the alliance. While it held 37.98% of all group gold reserves. The next was India with 3.3 trillion USD providing 12.74% to the union's GDP. Its GDP share is close to its gold reserves share of 14.5%. The third was Russia with 8.6% GDP share or 2.24 trillion USD. [ Important to note that Russian GDP dollar estimation was hampered by the overpriced ruble in 2022. It was caused by Western sanctions on Russian imports, while Russia was receiving plenty of dollars for its commodities. That finally ballooned the country's current account surplus to the historical highs being a magical pill of ruble strength. ]. It is not the big GDP share, while the country's gold reserves proportion was 47.7%. Russia was followed by Brazil with a GDP equal to 1.92 trillion USD contributing 7.4% to the merged GDP. Brazil's GDP stake exceeded its metal reserves. The South African GDP was 0.4 billion USD providing 1.54% of GDP. The GDP share is slightly below the country's metal stake in BRICS. The economic strength of members does not equal countries' gold reserve s. Only India and South Africa had close estimations of share in GDP and gold inventory. The inclusion of export data in analysis can't show all the depth of international trade between the members, but quantitative figures will uncover the trade patterns. Not sure that export data on the 4th pane has equal periodicity, but I have to apply that all 5 countries have the same monthly periodicity. The summarized monthly exports are about 393 billion USD. The figures have some seasonality, more volatile than annual GDP and quarterly gold funds data, but their volatility will not wreck the analysis and the general situation. China is the leader with 72.5% in the group exports. Russia is the second with 9.1%. India is sat next to it with 8.39%. Brazil is close too, with 7.63%. As in the previous rankings, the last one is the South African Republic with a 2.3% export share in the related group. There are discrepancies between export share, GDP, and gold funds among the block. Again the South Africa figures of exports close to its gold reserves and GDP contribution, while for others they do not match. Among the total export figures, we should take into account with whom the countries trade and what they trade. The primary buyers of Chinese exports are the USA, Japan, South Korea, and the EU or the West which use USD and partly EUR in their international contracts. The main export partner of Russia, Brazil, and South Africa is China . But the main export partner of India is the USA. Nothing is surprising here, the predominant goods in Brazilian, Russian, and South African exports are commodities. The main world factory of consumer and industrial goods is China which buys commodities and consumes commodities to make the final goods. India is in the middle, it exports some goods, like pharmaceutical products, but the majority of the exports are commodities or refined commodities (like petroleum). Worth noting that has happened after the West imposed sanctions on Russia. Russia has decreased its dependency on the West and extraordinarily increased market share in non-West countries, like India, Turkey, and China. They say Russia supplies its commodities with heavy discounts. What currency do Russia and its non-western partners use? According to Reuters' article published on May 4, 2023, between Russia and India most of the transactions happened in the American dollar , other parts were made in Indian rupees, the UAE dirham (AED). Because Russia couldn't spend rupees, the two countries suspended their rupees trade. Russia preferred CNY and part of transactions were routed via China. It says a lot about BRICS partners and their bilateral trade, transactions, and payment currencies. Even sanctioned Russia was ready to receive the dollar (thanks to a few exemptions provided for USD payments to Russian commodities), to receive AED, which is pegged to USD (quasi-dollar) and Chinese yuan. China is the main importer of Russia, so it is comfortable for Russia to receive yuan for its exported commodities and spend it on its imports. Why single supranational currency can be created after all the mentioned facts? According to the Bank of Russia statistics, the yuan share in Russian exports payment was about 25% in May 2023, compared with the combined USD and EUR share of about 33%. About 30% of Russian imports were paid in Chinese yuan compared with 33%-34% of payments in USD and EUR. Even being under sanctions and having the necessity to go away from the USD and EUR, Russia still significantly uses them. Having 2326 tonnes of gold and being #1 in the gold reserves ranking, Russia hasn't used it in its international trade. There are no official statistics that can prove using gold in Russian international trade. Why not use gold? Do the Western sanctions on Russian gold transactions undermine the Russian ability to use its gold in foreign trade? If the answer is yes, then for me it is hard to believe that not only gold-backed currency can be established, but also play an important role in the international trade between members of BRICS. It can be the BICS gold standard. Yuan-gold back standard, anything without Russia. International trade is also about the trade of goods and services and international investments. The topics are out of the scope of my analysis. Of note, the majority of international reserves of these countries are invested in USD-denominated assets, predominantly bonds . I believe the most diverse is Russia which has invested its reserves in CNY, AUD, CAD, CHF, and GBP. All Russian reserves, except CNY-denominated, are under sanctions now. Will gold-backed BRICS currency have the assets nominated in the gold-backed units allowing economic agents to earn interest? At the minimum, it should provide opportunities to store value, be volatile as the American dollar or less, and be liquid to be exchanged in fiat and goods. Finalizing 1,2,3,4, I want to add, that only current members were analyzed. If new members join, it will change amounts, countries share and their positions in gold funds, GDP, and international trade, and likely will demand to increase the NDB equity letting new members in. I can imagine that the countries can adopt supranational and national legislation to establish gold-backed currency. But I can't imagine how many problems it will create. How it will work with their national currencies? How it will affect taxation? If it is backed by gold, then its currency rate will mimic the gold price. Can they issue debt in the new gold-backed currency? It will be like a creation of the European Union and its Eurozone with its fiat Euro. It can't work without a lot of frameworks and treaties. As Europe shows, treaties are not followed by its member states. If BRICS doesn't have aims to use their unborn currency in trade between private companies, and individuals, it will be like the SDR of the IMF. If exporter/importer (no matter, whether an individual or a company) can't use the currency, it will not outshine dollar transactions. Just a new measure of calculation of debt and assets for its members. The internal factors were analyzed. There is one important external one. To protect the new currency, and develop its popularity to substitute the dollar you need to build trust in the currency among others. On the bottom of the superchart, corruption ranks show. The least corrupt has first place among all other countries. The ranking compares countries with each other. You can argue that it is biased data. Yes, it can be. But I believe, it shows the general scene. China the best member-state, ranks 65th, South Africa is on 72nd place, India on the 85th, Brazil on 94th and Russia takes 137th place. With these figures, I doubt that the supposed currency can be confidently used by the private sector and will be trusted by the private sector and non-member states. All in all, there are a lot of contradictions in the creation of gold-backed currency, the USD substitution. If a country wants to use gold right now in international trade, it can do it, if its counterparty agrees, and there is no need to create the supranational monetary surrogate that is backed by gold. The current situation shows that countries are more likely to continue using USD, a national currency in international trade than create a confident and useful gold-backed currency. Creation of a single currency can take years, countries will need time to adopt their laws and monetary policy, and business habits to use this currency. It may be a smooth long-term process to create the gold-backed currency. Even the situation with Russia, when the country needs to stop using 'poisonous' USD, has shown their economic agents still pay and receive USD. In my opinion, that it is more probable, they would create a yuan-backed CBDC, than the BRICS gold-backed single monetary unit that will threaten the dollar. Favorable rumors and estimations from experts could buoy gold prices until the end of the BRICS summit (August 24, 2023). On the technical side, gold seems weak to breakout the 2100 USD/oz resistance in the nearest month. Presumably, it would float between 1900 and 2100 USD/oz.
COMEX:GC1!
by Nikita_Kalinin
Send this down to 1 and its over for USDBRICS composite basket index vs USD BRICS currently accounts for 40%+ of the global population and 25%+ of global trade. Lessening reliance on USD will benefit their economies greatly regards cross border trade amongst members. Current additional applications to join the bloc have been received from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Algeria, Venezuela, Kazakhstan (all major energy markets) amongst others. All empires rise and fall, both economic and geographic... some more destructive than others. One to keep an eye on over next century.
Short
by LordEido
2
Is GOLD the New Global Stablecoin? "Rising from the Ashes: The Phoenix's Role in a Multipolar Financial Landscape" “You cannot change how people think, all you can do is give them a tool, the use of which will change their thinking.” - Richard Fuller. It's been over 35 years since the publication of The Economist magazine with the cover "Get Ready for the Phoenix," where the coin is stamped with the name Phoenix and a 2018 release date. This magazine greatly influenced the trust in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, yet many remain unaware of this history to this day. The primary cryptocurrency hype took place precisely in 2017-2018, and the peak of the cryptocurrency market capitalization was formed on January 8, 2018. The magazine was published on January 9, 1988, stating that in 30 years, people would be purchasing goods online, and all price tags would be in the new global currency, Phoenix. Fiat currencies would not disappear, making it easier for states to manage their economies. Perhaps this was exploited by a market maker; many believed in the advent of a new global currency due to the article from the past and bought cryptocurrencies at peak prices. Although the main Bitcoin network was launched on January 3, 2009, and today is 2023 with calculations still predominantly in dollars, people continue to believe that Bitcoin is that very Phoenix. However, there's another theory that might be a tad disappointing to crypto enthusiasts. I believe that the new global currency being hinted at is simply gold but in a digital/tokenized form. In this format, it can be broken down to the minutest unit and used for instantaneous transactions, with its authenticity verified on the blockchain. Today, we trust the value of USDT, which is issued in this manner on a blockchain, backed by financial instruments. As of now, USDT's market cap constitutes 7% of the entire cryptocurrency market's capitalization. Currently, Tether holds more US Treasury bonds than the governments of Australia, UAE, and Spain. Another theory suggests that the new global currency might be the Chinese digital Yuan. A currency gains global prominence when it's actively used in cross-border trade and holds a significant share in central banks' reserves. Another critical factor is the ability to use this reserve currency during financial crises, as a safe-haven asset. In October 2016, the International Monetary Fund added the Yuan to its basket of reserve currencies used to calculate Special Drawing Rights (SDR), but it was not designated as a global currency at the time. Between 2015 and 2017, the Yuan was included in the reserves of the ECB, Germany, and France. Today, most central banks hold some amount of Yuan. According to the Governor of the Bank of England, the dollar should be replaced by a new digital currency based on a global basket of goods. He emphasized that trade wars are undermining business confidence worldwide. Supply disruptions in certain sectors affect even those countries not directly involved. "These consequences impact all global economies, regardless of whether you're directly involved or not; it affects the outlook," Carney stated in 2019. If the yuan becomes the new global currency, it fundamentally changes nothing. I've considered a currency tied to a global basket of goods, but there are many complexities and uncertainties with that approach. No matter how you spin the wheel, gold emerges as the solution. Gold has always served such purposes. There was a time when there simply wasn't enough gold to meet global demand. But now, technology allows for the creation of derivative financial instruments, especially on the blockchain. "You can never change anything by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the old one obsolete." - Richard Fuller. A year ago, expressing such thoughts would have been pointless, as the crypto community would not have accepted them; I've been sensing this since 2019. But today, there are already statements that the BRICS countries are planning to launch their own currency, and some sources claim that it will be tied to the price of gold or backed by gold reserves. In this scenario, BRICS moves to an exchange of goods and resources, essentially a barter payment system between countries. Gold will act as a unit of measure in mutual settlements. Thus, everything will return to the original idea when the dollar was backed by gold, but there's one big catch. The main shift in the current paradigm will not be the transition to gold, but in the consensus that will be embedded in the new payment system. Here lies the fundamental understanding of what is meant by the multipolar world, which is now a topic of much discussion. The most suitable architecture for constructing such a payment system is a blockchain with a DPoS (Delegated Proof-of-Stake) consensus mechanism. This consensus algorithm was first developed by Dan Larimer in 2013 for his BitShares project. The DPoS protocol is also referred to as a form of "digital democracy". The distinction between DPoS and PoS is the separation of network participants into block producers and voters. In the case of a supranational digital currency, citizens of countries elect (delegate) their government, and the government sets up a node to validate transactions (becoming a validator). Sooner or later, government elections will also be conducted on the blockchain, making such consensus more transparent. The architecture embedded in the EOS cryptocurrency would be well-suited for such a payment network, which I call an advanced hybrid of XRP+ETH. In EOS, 21 validators participate in the creation of each new block. Nodes are built on high-performance servers oriented towards smart contract processing, and transactions within the network are free. A wallet cannot be activated without a certain amount of EOS on it. This is perfect for both central and commercial banks. They will hold the issuance of the main coins and activate new wallets only after undergoing KYC or obtaining a business license. On such a "blockchain", it will be possible to issue tokenized gold backed by physical storage in bank vaults or through unique CeFi protocols, and possibly even DeFi, backed by tokenized oil, gas, and other futures. How exactly this will be implemented is currently a matter for speculation. It's important to understand that the new currency will be backed by commodities or raw materials, not the growth of a single country's economy. This won't be on the EOS, ETH, or XRP blockchain; I just provided this as an example for clarity. There will be a separate network where each BRICS participant will hold a masternode. "When it's embedded in the consensus that even if ONE participant (node) of the network confirms a transaction (excluding the sender), and all others disagree, and such a transaction goes through, this will be called a multipolar world. In such a network, money won't be frozen by the decision of just one side, as in the case with the dollar or euro. This will be the creation of a new model, in which the old one simply becomes outdated and ceases to be popular. The name Phoenix on the coin also has a hidden meaning. According to myths, the Phoenix self-immolates upon death, after which it is reborn from its ashes. The interpretation of "Phoenix" represents transformation, power, and renewal. In other words, it represents something new born from something that was destroyed. And since the Phoenix always arises from ashes, it cannot be destroyed. Gold is, in a way, the "life force" of dead stars – a metal that even solar energy cannot form. Only the destructive power of energy at the moment of a supernova explosion or the collision of neutron stars is capable of producing gold. Gold is invincible - it is not subject to corrosion, does not rot, and does not disintegrate into dust. Its essence is unchanged and eternal, being melted over and over again, it gets a second, third, hundredth chance at life in new guises, forms, and alloys. Today is the time to be reborn in digital form." In May 2021, another intriguing cover of The Economist appeared with the title "Govcoins. The digital currencies that will transform finance". It features a coin with the letter "G", abbreviated from "Government", but "Gold" also fits here. There's also a cover indicating that from the 4th quarter of 2023, the current financial system will begin to collapse, with Russia and China being the least affected. However, this is a topic for a separate, largely conspiratorial article. Why couldn't BRICS launch its own currency earlier? The new global currency will act as a standard of value, let's say it's gold (XAU). This means that each participant will support the exchange rate of their fiat in relation to gold based on the demands of their economy. However, all foreign trade will go through CBDC. So, it will look like: CBDC of the buyer -> XAU -> CBDC of the seller. Countries will simply create some liquidity for trade turnover, but everything will operate through local CBDCs. China has long been using the digital yuan. Russia, Brazil, and India launched theirs this year. South Africa is still testing, but the first mentions of CBDC development in South Africa date back to 2017. It seems that a lot hinged on the launch of CBDCs among the participants, but these are purely my speculations. Also, it's one thing to announce this, and another thing to get it all up and running. It won't happen overnight, but once it's announced what will be the basis of the BRICS currency, many things will start to change and restructure. In this analysis, I rely on The Economist solely because it aligns with my market expectations. The paradigm shift will pave the way for a significant drop in most fiat currencies. However, for us, it may not be so apparent, as this will manifest through rising prices of gold, oil, gas, and other limited Earth resources. Initially, it might even seem that the dollar is strengthening, but not in relation to gold. Given that Russia possesses the largest reserves of various natural resources, I anticipate a strengthening of the ruble, despite all sanctions. For 13 years, Bitcoin built and financed the infrastructure for digital codes - the new financial system. Bitcoin can't become the Phoenix from 1988 since its consensus doesn't suit the requirements of a new global currency. In the Bitcoin network, if you send money to a wrong address, you simply lose it. Bitcoin has its destiny, which is to replace cash in the digital world. Still, there's a high chance it will undergo another wave of capitulation, and the debunking of the Phoenix myth will be a part of it. It must remain high-risk and unstable, a playground for speculators. We will see a new historical maximum for BTC only after a correction of its entire 12-year growth. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, after three steps forward, two steps back are required. Everything has its time; it's worth waiting for BTC's new peak no earlier than 2027-2029. A confirmation of this will be if, in September, the SEC again denies all applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF. During the ongoing Bitcoin capitulation, the cryptocurrency market will undergo the establishment of WEB 3. DeFi protocols will start actively minting algorithmic stablecoins with prices pegged to gold. The cryptocurrency market will persist and evolve, but earning in the upcoming years will be challenging. Throughout human history, over 206,000 tons of gold have been mined. More than half (63%) of this gold was mined in the last 70 years. About 17% of the mined gold is in the international reserves of countries worldwide. With a price of $1900 per ounce of gold, 1 ton equals $67 million. The world's gold reserves amount to over 34,000 tons, equivalent to $2.3 trillion. At its peak in 2021, Bitcoin's market capitalization was $1.29 trillion. The capitalization of all the gold mined to date is $13.8 trillion. Every day, just over 8 tons of gold are mined, worth about $550 million. The industry consistently consumes 0.84 tons of gold daily. The jewelry sector uses 6.3 tons every day. Of the mined gold, only 1 ton per day remains for banks and private investments, equivalent to $67 million. Until the 2024 halving, about 900 BTC are mined every day, and at a price of $27,000, this amounts to $24.3 million. Bitcoin is not used in the industry. Thus, the current useful 1-day emission of gold for the financial market is only 2.7 times higher than the emission of Bitcoin. Even compared to the banking capitalization of gold, such inflation is less than that of Bitcoin. Since the 2008 crisis, central banks have been actively purchasing gold. Such a trend in history has only been seen once before, preceding the dollar's detachment from gold backing. For clarity, I've depicted the bank purchases on a gold price chart. The BRICS Summit starts on August 22nd, where it's expected that the principle underlying the new payment system will be announced. Today, you can buy tokenized gold, for example, PAX Gold (PAXG). Each token is backed by one troy ounce of London Good Delivery gold in 400-ounce bars stored in Brink's vaults. If you own PAXG, you own the underlying physical gold held in custody by Paxos Trust Company. Tether also issues tokenized Tether Gold (XAUt). I believe that for the coming years, gold is a more promising tool for preserving value than USD and Bitcoin. Personally, I'm moving from USDT to PAXG as a stablecoin, with a backing that is more understandable to me. Another point, the SEC labeled BUSD as a security. USDT is partially backed by various financial instruments. With PAXG, it's simple; it's backed by a commodity in the form of physical gold. Today, gold is trading at $1900 per ounce. I think until January 2024 the price will show a rise at $2390. PS: This is not all I wanted to say. There will soon be a link to a more detailed article on Twitter.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Age_of_Crypto
1
Will DXY USD Rise Due to BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility? Introduction: Traders are often on the lookout for potential opportunities and risks that can impact the forex market. Recently, the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency has come under scrutiny, leading many to wonder if this could fuel a rise in the US Dollar Index (DXY). In this article, we explore current affairs and discuss why traders may consider longing for the dollar amidst these uncertainties. The BRICS Alternative Currency Credibility: The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations have been exploring the possibility of establishing an alternative currency to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This move aimed to challenge the dollar's dominance in international trade and finance. However, recent developments have raised concerns over the credibility of this alternative currency. Factors Affecting BRICS Alternative Currency: 1. Economic Disparities: The BRICS nations vary significantly regarding economic growth, political stability, and fiscal discipline. These disparities can undermine the credibility of the proposed alternative currency, as it requires a solid foundation to gain trust and acceptance in the global market. 2. Political Challenges: The BRICS countries face differing political ideologies, hindering their ability to maintain a unified front. Disagreements over economic policies, trade practices, and geopolitical tensions can weaken the credibility of the alternative currency, potentially favoring the US dollar. 3. Global Economic Uncertainty: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath have caused economic uncertainties worldwide. In such times, investors often seek refuge in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, further bolstering its value. Why Consider Longing the Dollar? Given the potential challenges faced by the BRICS alternative currency, traders may find it prudent to consider longing the US dollar. Here are a few reasons to support this stance: 1. Safe-Haven Status: The US dollar has historically been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. As market participants seek stability, the dollar strengthens, making it an attractive option for traders. 2. Global Reserve Currency: The US dollar is the world's primary reserve currency. This position grants it significant influence and liquidity, making it a preferred choice for international transactions. Any threat to the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency could further solidify the dollar's dominance. 3. Market Sentiment: Traders often base their decisions on market sentiment. If doubts surrounding the BRICS alternative currency persist, it could lead to a loss of confidence among investors. This shift in opinion may drive them towards the US dollar, potentially causing an upward movement in the DXY. Call-to-Action: Long the Dollar Considering the uncertainties surrounding the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency, traders are urged to evaluate the potential risks and rewards carefully. In light of the factors discussed, longing the US dollar could be a prudent strategy to consider. However, conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with financial advisors to make informed decisions are essential. Conclusion: As the credibility of the BRICS alternative currency faces threats, traders are left wondering about the potential impact on the US dollar. While uncertainties persist, the dollar's safe-haven status, global reserve currency position, and market sentiment may strengthen it. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor market developments and consider longing the dollar as a potential strategy in these uncertain times.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY - Dollar Bearish pattern!Bearish wedge for the Dollar strength index. ABCDE Pattern forming - we should get the E as this bearish move plays out. still could see another short term rally heading into the FOMC meeting July 26TH. *another pause from the fed would cause more weakness in the DXY *Fednow rumoured to go live July 20th - although still a rumour. *Extra liquidity will be created from Fednow, adding to the overall dollar supply which should cause weakness in the price/value. *Brics nations advancing - more countries are joining! *Russia is planning to create a gold backed currency. I believe this wedge will play out is just a case of when, another pause from the fed would align nicely with this chart. Interesting times ahead!. let me know your thoughts below.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by dibz1996
Potential Bear Flag on DXY Monthlywww.tradingview.com We'll see how this plays out. I think we will see DXY at historic lows within the next few years. I believe this because the USD is on track to lose world reserve currency status and US government doesn't seem to be taking it as serious as they should.. If this was to happen, the USD would hyperinflate and interest rates would be forced to rise to extreme rates. De-dollarization could be the event that sends USD into a death spiral and ultimately a third world country. On the other hand, i think the people running the show in America are intelligent and won't allow for such an event but i think the force of de-dollarization is being underestimated. It will be interesting to see the DXY in future decades. My prediction is it goes into a slumber for a decade or two in the near future. Once BRICS release their alternative form of currency many countries would switch to it and cause a domino effect away from the dollar.. It's also possible we see many countries simply trading in their own pairs with a much more efficient system, potentially using DLT. We shall see.. Interesting times.
TVC:DXYShort
by Neanderthal24