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GBPUSD still in support zone even with bad news.Hi traders, GBPUSD still in a boring support zone which started on the 8th of January. 1.5200 is resistance and 1.5050 is support. PLEASE; dont buy at the top of this range or sell on the bottom, wait for the break or buy at the bottom or sell at the top so your risk will be smaller. I am long right now from 1.5080, SL right now is at positive at 5085 (+5pips). Good luck! Thiago Duarte thiago@duarteinvestmentgroup.com @thiagotrader
by dcm2020
Two Cyphers - VIDEO IncludedPlease watch this explanatory video : www.youtube.com In this little educational video you will know my rules for trading the Cypher pattern in a simple and clear way. Then, I will show you two live pending Cyphers on GBPJPY, hourly time frame. Notice that I didn't go over the targets and stops in this video; I will cover them in a later video. I will see how things goes with this second video but I already want to do these type of videos on a daily manner. I will cover a big variety of topics. Covering technical analysis tools, strategies, chart patterns, advanced patterns, harmonics, break outs patterns, money management, trade plan development, backtesting, customization and portfolio and of course, psychology and mindset. If you are interested in knowing the rules of the Bat pattern and check how I made +170 pips live using the Bat pattern then check out this video: www.youtube.com If you want to see more videos, then please subscribe to my channel: www.youtube.com As for this video, here are some useful links that are related to this video's topic: www.youtube.com An article about the Cypher pattern and it's rules: simplychartpatterns.com An article about harmonic and price patterns in general: www.investopedia.com
Short
by Ahmed-J
1
NHS Crisis + Greece Election = Uncertain Kingdom!Fundamentals The National Health Service The NHS is under a vast amount of pressure due to the lack of funding by the UK government. Last year, British authorities funded the NHS of a total of £700M but unfortunately the bailouts to help the NHS cope with winter pressures have not reached front line services in some parts of the country, Britain’s top emergency doctor has said, as the political dispute over crumbling A&E performance deepened. The number of UK citizens aged 65 and over has increased by 5.5% in the last 50 years, thus increasing the demand of both private and public healthcare sectors. However as we are witnessing, the public healthcare sector (NHS) is suffering mostly. The government debt as a percentage of its GDP is 90.6% and is the highest of UK Public sector expenditure. So enough about the government, as an investor I am likely to stay cautious with my investments as the government will likely try to save the NHS by either . Making it Public company This option can be a totally different scenario to our current crisis. . Bailout With this in mind I would believe that they will need to get the money from somewhere, perhaps by raising interest rates, borrow more, increase taxes or ultimately face a default in debt crushing its local index. However, my target is short term because I am still waiting on the Greece Snap Election below. Greece Snap Election 25th Jan The UK can suffer a minor correction within the next couple of weeks before the Greece Election calls its way. The ECB has said to have outlined a $590Billion Investment Grade QE plan which can mean that the renegotiation plan for the Greek politician party Syriza can go well accordingly. This mean that Greece CAN be bailed out for the 4th time in 5 years. However if Greece isn't successful in the negotiation then we could see heavy volatility in the markets due to uncertainty as Greece waves goodbye to the Eurozone. This will have a bad influence on the Euro currency which I hope that traders and investors have already acted upon. I'm already short on the UK since 6560 along with the EUR Technicals Close below SMA55 + Trend Line Bounce = Short Opportunity Possible Correction level can vary between average sell offs and rallys in the last couple months. I have calculated that for you and here we have an average of 85 -100 pips after the close. Happy Trading
FX:UK100Short
by moemia
Possible S/T Bounce Against M/T Bears | $GBP $JPY #forex Friends, Watch for a possible M15 level bounce to levels defined by predictive/forecasting model as: 1 - TG-1 - 181.397 - 08 JAN 2015 2 - TG-2 - 182.263 - 08 JAN 2015 3 - TG-Hi - 183.026 - 08 JAN 2015 4 - TG-x - 183.651 - 08 JAN 2015 A fifth target is defined as: TG-Lo - 180.019 - 08 JAN 2015 This TG-Lo would in fact act as a possible springboard IF and only IF it held against any further bearish advance - In effect, this would act as the signal line for any potential BULLISH adverse excursion. INSTITUTIONAL POSITION - BEARISH: I would qualify any rallying as an adverse excursive event on the basis that a single bank has pronounced a bearish bias with an abysmal bearish target. I believe that some SL hunting might take place before any such descent. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: The predictive/forecasting model defined the aforementioned target with the condition also defined above. However, I have posted dashed arrows not to define any timing, but instead to define the breadth of price action that could possibly occur in this timeframe. Whereas TG-x has acted as a lowest-probability level, here, any bullish advance would likely stop at TG-Hi = 183.026. BASIC PATTERN: A simple channel quartered to highlight price action suggests that price has rising to the 4th quarter, and dwelled there for most of the time. Look for a sustain residence therein as we wait for the forecast to unfold. A reversal at TG-Lo would perhaps inspire the pattern trader to decipher a Kiss-of-Death ("KoD"), sending price our lofty ways. OVERALL: Overall, a pure predictive/forecasting model-based analysis is generating this chart. A single institution is sitting on a bearish position, while fundamentals are bearish for both $GBP and $JPY. This makes this trade a highly speculative proposition with little technical or fundamental elements on which to secure a directional bias - in essence, this is all generated by the predictive model, so beware. Directional indicator is left at "Neutral". Stay tuned, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster ------
by 4xForecaster
1
Can A Full Basket Pop? | #USDollar $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHF $CAD $AUDTraders, As you may recall, a few days ago, I posted a DAILY chart of the USDollar index, in which the model defined a top-most target ("TG-x") at 11474 - See this chart and analysis here: . While price did hit that target and has since weaved a near-symmetrical consolidation pattern around this forecast level, I thought it prudent to look at that level with refined data at a larger (i.e.: institutional) framework - In fact, I decided to use a composite view of the chart by applying the forecasting/predictive model over several timeframes. What ensued are TWO tight levels of probable reversal (based on the nominal nature of the target) and one outer-most value derived from the WEEKLY chart, such that: Nominal target and outer most: 1 - TG-Hi = 11529 - 24 DEC 2014 2 - TG-Hi = 11560 - 24 DEC 2014 and 3 - TG-x = 11655 - 24 DEC 2014 The interest here is to arrive at a tight correlation between this composite and prior analysis, without having to chase price out of bound. As defined before, the nominal targets are named levels, such as "Hi", "Lo" and "x", defining a low-probability attainment with high-probability reversal values (i.e.: price has less of a chance to reach these levels, but if and once it does, it will not just retrace, but reverse in the Fibonacci order of a minimum of 0.618 - This is in contrast to numerical targets defining retracement levels in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618). TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: In its technical context, one may also appreciate the ascent of price within a well-defined bullish channel. This channel, as any other, has buffer zone: A hard outer shell, and a softer margin, defined in the chart by fainter lines. As price rose to the current TG-Hi = 11560 level, one may also appreciate that: 1 - The price bar closed right at that TG-Hi value of 11560 and 2 - Price closed right at the buffer line. Note that the hard outer shell has only a single point to account for its existence, and that it is drawn out of the total symmetry of the channel. In contrast, the inner buffer line is born out of three validation points. For this reason, this buffer line carry more authoritative power against price advance than any other line. PATTERN ANALYSIS: A Bearish Butterfly outlined in the chart offers an added technical support, which may also very well play towards a market consensus against further advance. The residence of Point-5 is unusual, but Fibonacci based, considering its 1.786-Fib mark-up relative to Points XA. OVERALL: if indeed price were to roll from here, look for a significant support at a level corresponding to Point-3 of the L/T impulse. This happens to fall in line with a modular core-symmetry highlighted in the chart. Failure of this level would thus open the floor to 10323. However, a 9773 would also be offering an ultimate support per predictive model. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
FX:USDOLLARShort
by 4xForecaster
66
High-Prob #sterling Pounds At Bulls Door | $GBP $USD #BOE #forexPREDICTIVEFORECASTING MODEL: High-probability reversal at nominal target, TG-Lo - TG-Lo = 1.53512 - 24 DEC 2014 AND - TG-Hi = 1.92219 - 24 DEC 2014 Above predictive data correlates with following standard technicals: 1 - L/T trendline support 2 - Narrow R/S band ("Bullish Entrenchment") 3 - Taut RSI in historical bullish trigger-reversal level OVERALL: High-probability reversal at level defined above, based on predictive/forecasting model and technical corroborating supports. Overhead target ("TG-Hi") is based on predictive/forecasting model - Although, here too, a R/S level is appreciable. David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
Long
by 4xForecaster
11
Shallow Opp; 2 Triggers, 1 Target - Best/Worst Cases | $GBP $NZDBEST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (BCS): - Stop = 2.00651 - Entry = 2.01034 - Limit = 2.07432 - RR = 16.7:1 Further interim decline is expected, down to a probable 2.00913 support, defining a low-exposure entry point against a shallow Stop. Limit is defined based on ideal technical circumstance, where a near-perfect combination of alignment between Fibonacci + 2 prop patterns + predictive/forecasting model data has occurred. PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING DATA (unconfirmed): - Bullish - Invalidation 2.02538 - TG-1 = 2.07474 - 11 DEC 2014 GEOMETRIES: - Janus Pattern (prop.) - Great White Pattern (prop.) FUNDAMENTALS: - Expecting further decline in $NZD based on recent bearish dairy commodities price data - Commodities-wide outlook remains bearish and likely to continue propagate thru dairy price - OCR rate (3.5% - unchanged) adds pressure to $NZD; offers further downside - GBP rate (0.5% - unchanged) remains low; offers very little little downside - NET impact is most bearish on commodity-based NZD WORST-CASE SCENARIO - TRADE PROFILE (WCS): - Invalidation occurs first - Stop = 1.96045 - Entry = 1.97042 - Limit = 2.07432 - RR = 10.42:1 - Price finds soft R/S levels at 1.98382 - Price holds at solid R/S = 1.96868 - Invalidation < 1.96169 OVERALL: - DIRECTIONAL BIAS = Neutral until triggers/invalidation occurs - Probability highest towards further price decline (favors WCS) - Strat based on defined structural data David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
by 4xForecaster
9
GBPNZD - Short Term BearishRBNZ Interest Rate Decision - there has been speculation that the bank will cut rate today. In anticipation of this most of the NZD pairs have shown NZD to be weak as other have gained. However, looking at all NZD pairs it seems that the gains have been of the corrective nature. Therefore, if the rates are maintained there could be spike in the prevailing direction and then reverse. So with that in mind whilst GBPNZD remains long term bullish, the overall correction in play from recent high at 2.10 is still in development. If correct I suspect we might get short opportunity with high at 2.081 as the pivot on which suitable protective stop loss could be place or even better the high of 2.10. Downside target is potentially 1.97 - 1.95 zone as the bottom of the rising trend channel. Failing this once the action has settled a short position could be considered on any retracement of the initial decline. As always, if you like my analysis select to follow me and the chart but do your own analysis for any trade planning and appropriate money management. DanV
Short
by DanV
2
Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD04 DEC 2014 - Update: Friends, Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data. In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding. Looking at the $USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue). The following chart is looking at a dual view: 1 - Top is $USDJPY and 2 - Bottom is $USDJPY tempered by $ES. The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that $USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses. For instance, we have recently looked at: 1 - The possible topping in $USDRUB: (Source: ) 2 - The potential near-reversal in $XAUUSD: (Source: ) 3 - A technical recovery in $GBPUSD: (Source: ) 4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in $USDCAD: (Source: ) 5 - A near-complete target-hit in $USDCHF at TG-Hi: Source: ) 6 - A pending 5th wave completion in $EURUSD: (Source: ) 7 - And a similar $AUDUSD geometric completion in $AUDUSD: (Source: ) OVERALL: In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening $USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes. Most recently, the $ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com. Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster 00000
FX:USDOLLAR
by 4xForecaster
24
GBP/USD Monthly shows continuation on bearish trendTo see GBP/USD not able to close above 1.7200 was very negative from investors point of view. 1.7000/7300 zone is a very strong resistance zone which we can see very clear in this graph. When the second candle (july 2014) was not able to close above this zone but instead closed with a bearish pattern, everyone started to sell hard and now we are at 1.58 zone. Therefore, we are also bellow trend line now which everyone was calling the upper line of a triangle. I expect in a longer-term to GBP/USD to reach at 1.5000 by looking this graph. However, first I expect a correction up to 1.6300 and this can be a very good opportunity to sell. Also, lets keep in mind that we might be also in a 4 wave.
Short
by dcm2020
Bears Pound Sterling | $GBP $USD #ForexTraders, Predictive/forecasting model defined the following two bearish targets: 1 - TG-Lo = 1.55764 - 28 OCT 2014 and 2 - TG-x = 1.54661 - 28 OCT 2014. A discreet geometry could also be playing out via the height of a first significant retracement, projected downward. This method is similar to the Euclidean module projection (EMP), lining up perfectly with the first target defined above. Invalidation of this bearish outlook may be first weakened by price rising above the 1.6225 level, whereas a break above the 1.65235 should force a reconsideration of an entirely new trading plan. In contrast, a break through the 1.58736 floor would add credence to the model's forecast, as defined by the targets above. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ------------------ Twitter: @4xForecaster ------------------
Short
by 4xForecaster
20
Predictive Model Eyes Support At 161.808 | $GBP $JPY #forexTraders, PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL DEFINES SUPPORT: Predictive/forecasting model signaled further decline towards a structural lower-low, relative to a nadir carved out at 163.165 on February 04th, 2014. Model also defined a support as: - TG-Lo = 161.808 - 21 OCT 2014 Considering the larger timeframe, a retracement to higher-highs might occur in the interim, but such upside potential remains limited per model's bearish directional bias. LIMITED UPSIDE POTENTIAL: More specifically, there is significant resistance at 174.363 per predictive/forecasting model, whereas structural resistance can be easily found at 175.330 per evaluation of lower timeframes, where such attainment would also complete a Head & Shoulder's anatomy - Both of these upside values are defined in the chart in BLACK. FIBONACCI TIME ZONE DEFINES POTENTIAL TIMING: Worth noting here is the application of a Fibonacci Time Zone, defining specific points along the Fibonaci's series using Wave-A as its base. While points 2 and 5 of this Fibonacci Time Zone seem to result in discreet price inflections, a significant action occurred at point 8, as it defined a historical high and the completion of Elliott Wave's Wave-B (assuming that the developing geometry is an Elliott Wave's Extended Flat, where a corrective form in Wave-B terminates beyond the origin of a corrective Wave-A, and Wave-C is expected to span beyond the termination point of Wave-A and over to TG-Lo = 161.808 via an impulsive form. However, most importantly, point 13 of the same Fibonacci series approximates the intersection of a dominant supportive trendline and above defined TG-Lo = 161.808. To be candid here, I have nudged the trendline so as to offer a best approximation. Still, the proximity of these points call for a serious consideration of this price x time level, since both the model and the Fib time zone projections occurred as independent variables. OVERALL: Apart from this geometric coincidence, the predictive/forecasting model signals a strengthening of bears, and eyes a solid support at 161.808. Whether an Elliott Wave corrective geometry pans out, or a Fibonacci time zone help define a specific level at which price might retrace remains more an academic exercise here, than added technical evidence to the mode's assertion. Therefore, I suggest that the technical trader rests on his/her own tools and due diligence. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ---------- Twitter: @4xForecaster ----------
Short
by 4xForecaster
13
GBPUSD: A Butterfly I LikeI just finished tonights Syndicate video looking at EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD and EURAUD. One of the more exciting setups that I've been tracking since this morning has been the GBPUSD. Here's what I'm looking at. If you're a follower of mine at all then you know that I'm not a fan at all of Butterfly patterns. Actually, of any pattern that completes outside of the X confinements. However this is a particular butterfly pattern that does spark my interest mainly because it offers me an area that I can place stops at that isn't in no-mans-land. The chart on the left shows an area of consolidation on the daily timeframe and the lowest part of that support level is beneath the D completion of the butterfly pattern offering me a structure level to hide stops beyond. As with any butterfly pattern a move back into the X leg has a much higher rate of completion than a move back into the 38.2 of A to D Akil Stokes Head Currency Trader at Trade Empowered Spend A Free Week in My Live Trading Room: www.tradeempowered.com Learn About The Syndicate Program: www.tradeempowered.com Turning Point 4 Day Trading Webinar: www.tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
10