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$GBP vs. $JPY - Moving Under Wolfe's Influence | #Forex $USDFriends, As signaled this week-end, this Wolfe Waves Pattern came across loud and clear. I would have expected a 5-prime adverse excursion as it often seen in the WW, but instead, price is moving along just fine. This is a M15.But, dDid you see this DAILY chart: - All prior discussion on the development of both patterns can be reviewed in the TradingView's "Predictive Analyses & Forecasting Room". OVERALL: Bearish per price submission to WW pattern. Stay tuned by following my posts on TradingView.com for refined predictive/analysis per model once pattern consumes itself. No charge. Pure unadulterated technical indulgences. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA --------------- @4xForecaster --------------
by 4xForecaster
10
consolidated GBP = easy money (till tuesday)+info about ScotlandWe've arrived at heavy demand area. Pair should reman consolidated until we encounter a solid reason to break through this level or bounce up. Seems like situation will be simillar to the one when we were at this price level previuosly /yellow square @ Feb 2014/, yet the outcome might be opposite. I'd suggest playing it safe&technical now = from support to resistance and from resistance to support. Tuesday will be the day when some bigger move might appear. This red, long vertical line is placed here to show the date of Scotland's independece referendum. Outcome of this referendum might be heavily injuring for UK. Wondering now wherther or not Scotland's independece is already priced in and what will happen if result shows that they will actually stay with UK. What the price suggests is that, their independecte is mostly priced in so the impulse could be long for both the YES or NO as a result of the voting. Why? Because YES would only add-up more reasons to sell and NO would be a signal that we've pushed it too low in advance, and would mean that UK economy is safe for now causing some (or most) of all these short positions to take profit and wait till situation clears out. What will actually happen to UK if the result is YES? Less income from taxes, less people to contribute to GDP and overall economic growth, less people to take credit from UK's banks and first attempts to build independent monetary circulation system that doesn't support UK (or at least attempts to). There obviously are more outcomes of this but i'm only trying to imagine the scale of it and wondering if there could be any positive outcomes of independent Scotland for UK.
by trust512
Trading the STRONG against the weak! (currency strength calc)Inspired by an indicator I found on stevehopwoodforex.com and the endless possibilities of tradingview.com I came up with this currency strength visualisation concept. *Please hit the zoom-out button once* (or more if you're feeling wild) This may look like a mess, but the last few "bars" on the chart are holding some useful information! I'm sure I'm not the first one on here to think of this. My apologies for the messy work though, because the chart gets scrambled when you move it, the text moves all over the place and the calculations are probably completely wrong, but I'm sure you get what I'm trying to do here. Trading currencies that are gaining strength against currencies that are losing strength is obviously a good way to go, so this is an attempt to illustrate the increase/decrease in strength of a currency compared to 7 others, to help filter out those bad trades and get us into good ones for many pips of profit. Now check out the chart. How often a year does a currency significantly change direction? Who out there was/is still shoring the USD, AUD and CAD and buying the EUR, JPY and CHF on the hourly, 4-hourly and daily TF's right now? I know I haven't. I have been and will be only buying CAD, AUD, USD and now also GBP and NZD and I will be only selling EUR, JPY and CHF until the direction significantly changes. Which could of course happen at any time for all I know and when it does we look to trade that currency only the other way and count the money we made on the long run we just had! The strengthening and weakening of a currency as you can see can last for months. Realising this changed my trading forever. My interpretation of the chart: Currencies that are significantly sloping away from eachother are candidates for trend trading. Currencies that run paralel to eachother are ranging and can be traded from the top of a band or channel to the bottom with confidence. I hope this makes sense. Thoughts anyone? Cheers CHF = Aqua Blue (light) EUR = Turqoise (darker) GBP = Blue (dark) AUD = Orange NZD = Gray CAD = Maroon Red USD = Red JPY = Yellow
by safv6
64
GBP/USD Intraday Long entry Cable broke from the previous range this morning with a move above 1,6610 marked level, after disapointing manufacturing PMI data it droped back and tested that level from above. If that breakout is valid then we should follow up now towards 1,666 ressistance level. Keep in mind that manufacturing PMI's aren't influecning Pound so much beacouse of how brisitsh economy is constructed around services. Also the mortages data was good and shood boost Cable a little bit. There's day off in USA and Canada today so eavning session might be low volume and an spike like on Friday can happen on Cable easily.
Long
by tomasz.goljan
6
GBP/AUD with 2 possible outcomesGBP/AUD currency pair is close to an important support near 1,772 level which is 2014 low and possible wave 3 end. If we take away the fact that 5 wave structure should be in the bigger trend direction (which is an uptrend on bigger time frames for GBP/AUD) then the downside scenario is valid and if price manages to go lower then 1,772 low then way to 1,74 and 1,69 levels should be open and we might see an wave 5 which should end the downmove started in January. There's also an bearish flag present on the daily chart which was broken last week but as stated before I'd be cautious with any shorts as long as we won't get an daily close below 1,77-1,772 level. On the other hand there's Fundamental point of view which may supports GBP recovering against Australian Dolar. The MPC rates vote which shows that 2 members wanted to rise rates on the last meeting suggest that Great Britain will be the first Big Central Bank to start normalysing the monetary policy. Also there's RBA in Australia which is not really happy with to strong Australian Dolar and trade balance data shows that's not good for Australian economy also. To sum Up I'd rather be long from where we are now with some big targets in mind and stops below 1,77 level. IF 1,77 level is broken then more downside is expected.
by tomasz.goljan
BoE & GBPJPY IdeaIt remains that the ongoing improvements in unemployment, a lagging economic indicator, coupled with a solid recovery should eventually lead to a rise in wage growth. As a result, the current weak earning growth may not reflect the current health of the job market as it is an even more lagging indicator than unemployment. Furthermore, the 2-3% rise in the national minimum wage in October could be a catalyst for broader wage growth while supporting household consumption. As the recovery is expected to remain strong while the job market continues to improve, the BoE stays positioned to be the first major central bank to start its tightening cycle. British pound weakness unlikely to continue - Eye on GBPJPY The British pound has weakened as the odds to see a hike before year-end has decreased. However, the relative supportive monetary policy should support the Sterling in the longer-term. As a result, I do not consider this weakness as a trend reversal but as a temporary countertrend move. A long position in GBP/JPY remains an attractive vehicle to be exposed to a renewed strength in Sterling. My recommendation : Buy GBPJPY above 171.50 stop @170.45 ,Target1 173.80 & Target1 174.60 , Good Luck
Long
by AymanKhlifatb7
GBPUSDOn this pair here is what i think is going to happen: First the pair would go short until it reach the 382 of the july 8 2013 trend up. Now im not saying it would go beyond that but im not saying i wont. Depends on the price action, now we should take profit in that area after making some in the short trade. Observe that this is a weekly chart and if we are pattern trader this could be the B leg that determines the type of pattern depending on where it would stop. it may range 382 up to 886 wherever it wants. For now im short on this.
Short
by richbautista30
1
GBP/JPY with two scenarios for next few daysFriday's drop opened up the Head and Shoulders scenario for the GBP/JPY currency pair, price managed to break and close under the neck line and so far it stays below. That would mean there's an posibility to enter short trade at current price level targeting levels close to 170 as that would be the H&S formation range. But there are few "IF" on that entry that make me cautious, First thing that we are still in the uptrend on higher time frames, also the Friday's bounce level 172,3-4 level. Then the whole 172-173 zone which worked as ressistance from March till June this year is not the best zone to short from in my opinion. But sometimes there's no place to think too much and just trade the setup which is present on Your chart so I'd say it's fine to short as long as 173 and 173,3 levels are not broken to the upside. If the price would manage to break above 173 and 173,3 levels then I'd be willing to go long with new highs as a target.
Short
by tomasz.goljan
1
GBPUSD posible long trade GPB is at 78.6% fib retracement area - support area which may hold. Fridays bit disappointing US data, may see pull back GBP to resistance area - 1.7 - RSI strongly oversold being at 10.12 supports idea of retracement to 1.7 key very psychological level for GBP. worth noticing is that last week was 4th in a row of correction in GBP. I would be looking to place SL below 1.669 as it is next support level. I see GBP still strong fundamentally and looking at weekly chart we are still in uptrend. I will be closely watching current 78.6 fib area (on the other hand we may just continue down) - what happens at this level possibly determine this week direction. As always manage your risk and RR properly, its not a sprint - its a marathon! Good luck!
Long
by ArekJP
1
Bullish Bat at Previous Structure lowsI'm a little late on getting this idea posted, but we had an abundance of advanced pattern trading opportunities setting up as my live trading session came to a close. Some have since rallied and some have been stopped out. This particular one is still at market and for those who like to take more of a conservative approach, may be putting in a retest of structure in the form of a double bottom. Take a look at the RSI as well, significantly oversold. I've been doing a lot of work with this pair over the past month or so and this pattern happens to be in line with my underlying prediction for the pair. Coming back into previous outside returns provides a nice structural level to place stops. Hopefully we'll see another bounce off of this area and make our way back up to the 53 even handle. Have a great weekend traders, and if you missed it yesterday, here's the link to my latest Weekend Review video www.youtube.com AKil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
4
GBP/USD is Cable ready for resumption ?GBP/USD felt to really important level if there's an chance that it will conitnue the uptrend that we might be just getting to the entry point at the moment. There's an confluence of green marked Demand zone, 50% Fibo retracement of last swing up (1,669-1,719), daily trend line and the previous smaller leg up low at 1,685 level (red circle). Todays down move was mostly EUR/GBP strenght driven and that's not an rarity that EUR/GBP finds some demand at the end of a month with Bundes Bank selling pounds for Euro which is due to Great Britian paying it's European Union charges in Pounds. There's also an bullish divergence present on 4 Hour chart which might be another signal to go long there, the Risk:Reward ratio (around 7,5) would be great as if we get an bounce here I'd aim for another high close to 1,73 level which is an monthly time frame important Fibo level (50% retracement of down move from 2,12 to 1,35). Stop loss for long entry would be placed under the last dip towards 1,69 level (blue elipse) Things to keep in mind~ There's Q2 GDP reading in USA tomorrow which should be around 3% q/q (which will mean that they moved nowhere in last 6 months) There's FOMC meeting tomorrow with another tapper in "measured steps" as granny said 100 times and there's nothing much to expect from FOMC members then that. I can't find any justification to look for any hints of rate hike at tomorrows press conference after the meeting so Dolar bulls might get a little slap after that event. On the other hand there's IMF report telling us that Pound is overvalued and that might hurt British economy and we've got NFP numbers in USA this Friday which tend to be really good last months. The thing with NFP numbers and unemployment rate is that they are not "soo" important anymore after FED stated that they will look for inflation data mostly and all other data before deciding to hike rates.
Long
by tomasz.goljan
2
GBPUSD Set Up Allowing a Tight Stop on the Daily + 4 Hour ChartsI've shared this 4 hour chart to illustrate greater insight on the entry and exit points, but the daily chart illustrate the bigger idea of buying at support/50 SMA in a pull back. GBP is showing signs of strength -- I'm already long GBPJPY and GBPAUD -- and so I think what we're seeing here are signs of accumulation. I think the lows of this past Friday, July 25, may constitute a bullish checkmate, and thus have a relatively tight stop of 40 pips. My target profit is 180 pips away, which gives me a reward/risk of 4.5. www.informedtrades.com
Long
by cfdtrading_news
GBPAUD: Structure Trade With Amazing Risk RewardThis morning I recorded a video looking at a bullish Gartley opportunity that I missed. By the time I got my orders in price action had move well beyond the original entry point offering a much better risk/reward. Hours later we are still holding on tot he very last bit of structure and are attempting to put in a double bottom depending on the close oft his current candle. Between the structure level, advanced pattern, RSI being overbought, the retest of structure and the RSI divergence. I'd say this is a heck of an opportunity to get long. Just look at the potential risk reward. Targets a little lower at structure still make it more than worth it.
Long
by Akil_Stokes
27
GBPCHF Bat Pattern Retesting Previous Structure High'sI've been a bull on this pair over the last month or so but now I've got a short opportunity on my radar looking at a retest of previous structure highs on the daily. As a countertrend trader it's important to realize that I'm not looking for the big long-term move, simply a brief correction. If this correction rolls over more than expected there's a 2nd potential bat pattern down at our previous structure lows giving true trend continuation traders an excellent spot to get involved with an outstanding risk/reward. *Had issues posting them together but check out my ideas for the daily view of this chart relating to my comments*
Short
by Akil_Stokes
7
GBPCHF Bat Pattern Retesting Previous Structure HIgh'sI've been a bull on this pair over the last month or so but now I've got a short opportunity on my radar looking at a retest of previous structure highs on the daily. As a counter trend trader it's important to realize that I'm not looking for the big long-term move, simply a brief correction. If this correction rolls over more than expected there's a 2nd potential bat pattern down at our previous structure lows giving true trend continuation traders an excellent spot to get involved with an outstanding risk/reward. *Had issues posting them together but check out my ideas for the daily view of this chart relating to my comments*
Short
by Akil_Stokes
4
GBPCHF Bat Pattern at Daily Highs'* I tried to post another chart with this showing the advanced pattern, but think I messed up doing so. I'll keep trying but here's the daily view that was suppose to compliment my other chart** SORRY GUYS I've been a bull on this pair over the last month or so but now I've got a short opportunity on my radar looking at a retest of previous structure highs on the daily. As a countertrend trader it's important to realize that I'm not looking for the big long-term move, simply a brief correction. If this correction rolls over more than expected there's a 2nd potential bat pattern down at our previous structure lows giving true trend continuation traders an excellent spot to get involved with an outstanding risk/reward.
Short
by Akil_Stokes