British
Possible short Position GBP/JPY!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1 Day
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
Currency Pair creating a Double Top .
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @145.500 level and move towards the first Target 1 level @ 144.500 level.
FX:GBPJPY
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Stop Loss @ Still waiting for confirmation.
Target 1 @144.500
Risk/Reward @ 2:1
Happy trading. Will let you know closer to the time if or when executed:)
Follow your Trading plan, remain disciplined and keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
THIS IS A GREAT SETUP FOR A BIG MOVE!British American Tobacco (JSE:BTI), is one of the top 5 tobacco companies in the world, owning popular tobacco brands like Palmal, Kent, Lucky Strike Dunhill, Kool, Benson and Hedges, Peter Stuyvesant and Rothmans. With its headquarters in London, BAT has global operations in more than 180 countries. BAT shares are for sale on the London Stock Exchange and have a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
BTI has partnerships with more than 90,000 farmers and factories in 42 countries. 9 of the group’s 44 factories are located in Africa and BAT has had a presence in South Africa for more than 100 years. Established in 1976, the factory in Heidelberg is the eighth largest BAT factory in the world, producing more than 27 billion cigarettes a year for local and export markets.
The world has become far more health conscious than before and this is evident in the share price movements over the last 2.5 years. E-cigarettes are the key focus of the large tobacco manufacturers but don't seem to be selling quite as well as they would have hoped. I am sure that we can expect innovation from the large manufacturers on the heated tobacco topic but this will definitely not be without it's challenges.
It seems the big tobacco companies are strategising around health research that it’s smoke, not nicotine, that causes cancer and associated lung diseases. Part of the strategy will be to develop smaller versions of the Glo Stick with higher levels of nicotine in order to boost sales.
Generally speaking, we think that individual smokers will consume fewer cigarettes each and smaller percentages of populations will smoke. While cigarette sales in developed countries continue to decline year-on-year, sustained volume growth is widely predicted in emerging markets, driven by population growth and increasing disposable income. As a result, the overall value of the tobacco market continues to increase.
This value is expected to continue growing in the future. The resilience of the industry is underlined by the continued year-on-year net revenue growth, at constant rates of exchange.
Let's look at the technicals.
Weekly (pink): The steady share price increase on the left of the chart came to quite a sudden stop around June 2016. I am now looking at the corrective structure formation which has unfolded since that point. According to my analysis, we are in wave 3 of the correction. We can see the effort the share price has made to reverse from earlier this year and we may possibly see some upside from this point. It is also a possibility that there will be further decline and wave 3 could lengthen. In the longer term I am expecting price to move back to the top of the weekly structure.
Daily (blue): A look at the daily time frame shows a likely structure setup which ties in with the larger perspective as well. This is very likely the start of wave 3 on the daily structure which would also indicate the start of wave 4 on the weekly structure. Both setups have the potential to yield a large move to the upside.
H4 (green): As you can see on the chart above, price has just broken out of the H4 correction. This indicates that it is unlikely to have another wave to the downside and that the move to the upside has begun. The chart above illustrates the entry and exit levels that I will be looking at for this trade. Enjoy the freebie!
To receive my exact entry and exit levels for all the instruments that I trade, install our mobile app and subscribe to our signal service: www.greenboxmarkets.com
Happy Trading!
Linton
GBPUSD UNDER PRESSURE BELOW 1.3030 LEVELThe British pound has recovered back above the 1.3000 level against the US dollar, after the US dollar index failed to make traction above the 95.50 level on Thursday. The GBPUSD pair is likely to remain under heavy downside pressure on Friday while trading below the 1.3030 resistance level. Sellers will look for further losses below the 1.3000 level, while buyers will attempt to stabilize price above the 1.3030 level.
The GBPUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.3030 level, key technical support is found at the 1.3000 and 1.2954 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3030 level, buyers will likely target the key 1.3082 and 1.3100 resistance levels.
GBPUSD TURNING BEARISH BELOW 1.3205The British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar, hitting 1.3169, after US President Trump warned British Prime Minister Theresa May that a soft Brexit plan would harm trade-relations between the US and the UK. The GBPUSD pair has now broke its established trading-range between the 1.3200 and 1.3300 levels and is turning bearish. Sellers will look to target the 1.3150 level, while buyers will once again try to reclaim the 1.3205 level.
The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3205 level, key support is found at the 1.3150 and 1.3101 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair starts to once again trade above the 1.3205 level, buyers will target the 1.3255 and 1.3300 levels.
GBPUSD FURTHER BULLISH ABOVE 1.3300 LEVELThe British pound continues to trade towards the key 1.3300 resistance level against the US dollar, after another bullish weekly price-close. The British pound is also receiving a boost from UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans for a soft Brexit deal were revealed over the weekend. GBPUSD bulls will now need to hold price above the 1.3300 level for further upside advancement, while sellers will look for rejection around this key technical area.
The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.3300 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3373 and 1.3400 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair fails around the 1.3300 level, sellers will likely test towards the 1.3255 and 1.3205 support levels.
GBPUSD BULLS NEED TO HOLD THE 1.3255 LEVELThe British pound is starting to give back gains against the US dollar, as price falls back towards the key 1.3205 support level. The GBPUSD pair started to slip from the 1.3273 level, as the US dollar index firmed following the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Bulls now need to reclaim the 1.3255 level for further advancement, while sellers will look to hold price below the key 1.3205 support level.
The GBPUSD pair remains bullish while trading above the 1.3205 level, key resistance is now found at the 1.3273 and 1.3313 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3205 level, key technical support is found at the 1.3170 and 1.3142 levels.
GBPUSD STILL BULLISH ABOVE 1.3205 LEVELThe British pound has moved to a fresh monthly trading high against the US dollar, hitting 1.3248, as the trading sentiment surrounding the GBPUSD pair continues to improve.
The GBPUSD pair performed a bullish daily price-close above the 1.3205 level, with price remaining well above the weekly opening-price.
GBPUSD traders now look to a scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney this morning, and the release of the US ADP jobs report later today.
The GBPUSD pair remains bullish while trading above the 1.3205 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3248 and 1.3300 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3205 level, key technical support is found at the 1.3194 and 1.3170 levels.
GBPUSD INTRADAY BULLISH ABOVE 1.3194The British pound continues to press higher against the US dollar, as the US dollar index comes under further selling pressure.
The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.3205 level, with further upside advancement likely while price holds above the 1.3194 level.
Traders now look to the release of important UK PMI Services data, which comprises close to eighty percent of the United Kingdom’s GDP.
The GBPUSD pair is intraday bullish while trading above the 1.3195 level, key resistance is found at the 1.3249 and 1.3300 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3194 level, further declines towards the 1.3144 and 1.3120 support levels remains possible.
GJ Strong TrendGBPJPY has been following this channel for a while. as you can see whenever it does escape the channel so far it was come back. When it starts reaching heavy resistance then we may see a shift in the channel. Keep in mind GBP is getting out of the Brexit Zone and back into normal territory for the pound which is usually much stronger than most currencies. we can safely assume for the long term that this currency pair will be on the rise.
Weekly Analysis on Great Britain Pound / Japanese Yen: Week 13DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
Ok, so this week I managed to make all the trading mistakes in the book. Took huge losses but somehow that fuels me up to make bigger gains and get back on track. I feel like now that I am not afraid to loose money, I have an open road ahead of me to MAKE money. So lets get an analysis going here.
Weekly:
I decided to go first with the weekly chart because I spotted an ascending channel, as seen here.
Daily:
If we take a look at the daily we see that about 2 weeks ago the price hit the bottom part of our channel, and bounced back. It has been making higher highs and lower lows, although the las higher high was at a previous resistance area of 150.155, and rejected it. Also price is not over our MA.
4HR:
Price closed this week below our MA, and rejecting a previous resistance area around the 150.155 area. But it didn't break a support area I had drawn around 147.905.
I believe that this pair will follow its structure and continue to move upwards.
Moment of truth for GBPUSDI am looking that GBPUSD is on a strong downtrend but it is trying to re-test the highs of the channel. It is making a nice rebound from the lower part of the Bollinger band so if it breaks the channel, we may see a long uptrend.
Let's see, I am adding a SHORT if it fails to break the channel but most likely scenario will be it will go up.
EUR/GBP 4H Chart: Breaking large scale trendThe common European currency has broken through a dominant resistance line against the British Pound. Moreover, the currency pair has clearly broken away from the level of significance and already made an attempt to break the resistance of the monthly R1 at the 0.8914 level.
The surge is occurring in a medium scale channel up pattern. However, there are no notable junior patterns to this medium pattern because of the rather high volatility of the currency exchange rate.
Meanwhile, it has to be noted that the surge from a technical perspective has been caused by a Fibonacci retracement level.
GDPUSD: Ascending triangle pattern (Wait for confirmation)After GDP:USD hit a double top at the resistance I've been bearish ever since. I think we will breakout of this ascending triangle pattern.
Wait for confirmation at the lines of the triangle. If breaks down, set a short trade & the target will be the trend line.
If stop-loss is broken go long.
GBPUSD End Of The Bull RunTrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5 system setup 95% accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends. This system is made of custom technical indicators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at the possible dynamic S/R zones.
GBPUSD
Technical Outlook
To open short positions for GBPUSD , it is required:
In this situation we are now waiting for a reversal to occur as we wait for Awesome Osci to go into NEGATIVE territory alongside of our other system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the downside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid. Market execution for entry, confirmation will be required for entry. The bull run of 2017 is starting to slow down as our readings are starting to detection a change in trend. This could possibly just be a market correction as it is still very possible that the British pound will continue to make gains over the dollar in Q2 of 2018. We will monitor the activity of our positive readings until signal is in the appropriate conditions.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 420 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing high. The 2 previous signal on this pair was 589 pips and another 466 pips of profit since JUL/2017 to current date. We have seen quite a bull run this pair and we are now looking to capture for the bears to deliver a impulse wave to the downside going into Q1 2018.
Profit expectations: 20 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal. We could possibly wait over 1-2months before an official signal if market decides to range on this exotic pair.
Current Dynamic S/R Levels:
Swing high: 1.34500
Swing Low: 1.3000
Break out of consolidation rangeFrom a technical perspective, it looks like we finally have a break out of the consolidation range price has been locked into since the start of October. The overall structure is still bullish as the established higher low now indicates an impulse to the upside.
Immediate target is 1.345.
Swing targets being 1.35
Potentially hitting 1.40 by the end of the 4th quarter.
GBP/AUD 1D The rebound has occuredAfter the recent fundamental developments in the UK the British Pound has jumped. However, the move was expected on the larger scale charts.
The GBP/AUD is no exception to the just described rule. It can be observed on the daily timeframe chart that the pair had closely traded near the lower trend line of a long term support line. Meanwhile, the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.62 mark was supporting the trend line.
As a result the surge could have been expected. However, it seems that the jump is about to be over, as the pair is approaching a strong resistance cluster near the 1.70 mark.
GBP/JPY Reviewed after CPI releaseThe situation on the GBP/JPY currency pair has been massively affected by the various fundamental events on both sides of the rate. First of all the British macroeconomic data releases have forced the pound higher.
Secondly, the Japanese Yen has fallen due to the recent turmoil on the Korean peninsula.
However, the surge can be mapped by a short term channel up pattern. Although, the channel has already reached the upper boundary of a recently spotted dominant ascending channel pattern.
Due to that reason it can be expected that the junior pattern will be broken and the pair will decline down to meet with the 55-hour SMA.