Britishamericantobacco
British American Tobacco Shifts its Business Away from CigaretteKey Takeaway
British American Tobacco writes down $31.5 billion as it shifts its business away from cigarettes.
Shares of British American Tobacco tumbled Wednesday after the owner of Camel and American Spirit cigarettes took an impairment charge of about $31.5 billion, mainly related to its struggling U.S. cigarette brands with the number of people who smoke in steep decline.
In a financial update, London-based British American Tobacco said it is in the process of transforming its business from traditional, combustible products to “smoke-free” ones. Its goal is to get half its revenue from non-combustibles by 2035. Combustibles currently account for about 83% of its sales, according to the data firm FactSet.
In 2017, British American Tobacco bought Winston-Salem, North Carolina-based Reynolds American Inc. for about $49 billion in cash and stock.
Earlier this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a survey that showed U.S. cigarette smoking in another all-time low, with 1 in 9 adults saying they were current smokers. In the mid-1960s, 42% of U.S. adults were smokers.
Technical Analysis
British American Tobacco Industries ( NYSE:BTI ) 5th Day Moving Average (MA) is 30.71, trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
BTI stock has a MACD indicator of 0.4, which suggests a buy signal. BTI stock has an RSI of 58, which suggests that the stock is overbought.
Based on these indicators, a possible entry point for BTI stock is when the MACD crosses above the signal line and the RSI is below 70, indicating a bullish momentum and a reasonable price. A possible exit point is when the MACD crosses below the signal line and the RSI is above 70, indicating a bearish momentum and an overbought price.
BTI at an area of valueJSE:BTI setting for a long opportunity, note resistance on a higher time frame.
NYSE:BTI has been playing around this level for a while now, close above R714 trigger a long position. However, a clear bullish setup is above R730, where it'll have cleared the R720-ish resistance level that's on the weekly time frame.
R714 is like a low cheat entry, in anticipation to a breakout above R730. It can fail, manage risk accordingly.
BTI - Parallel Channel with upward momentumJSE:BTI is trading in a parallel channel and has recently bounced off the bottom on its way up. It is also showing some nice upward momentum. I would say that we are looking at an upward move towards at least the 55000 level if not further up towards the top of the channel.
Possible Swing trade for $BTI if it hits $35$35 seems to be a strong support level for British American Tobacco, will be looking to sell some puts or go into a long position if it falls to $35 and below. Also earnings at approximately $4 per share will provide great support as it will be trading at p/e of 8.75 which is extremely cheap for a global consumer defensive business growing at 2-3% EPS. Additionally as its a UK based stock listed as an ADR in the United states, there would not be the usual 30% US withholding taxes on BTI's dividends which improves its overall total return profile.
Total expected return (1 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 66% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 79% total annualized return
Total expected return (5 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 11% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 22% annualized CAGR return for next 5 years
British American Tobacco $BTI Bullish Butterfly BTI has went into oversold conditions and created a potential Bullish Butterfly. Keep in mind it still has room to go lower to the 1.618 fib. But anywhere between the 1.272 and 1.618 is a good potential reversal area. Also right now as it stands the daily candle is a bullish hammer so looks good for now.
1st Target - $37.12
2nd Target - 37.98
3rd Target - $38.85
Good luck traders.
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThis stock has just broken out of a descending channel (bullish flag pattern), and is rallying towards the weekly descending trendline. Therefore, we should see much upside towards the 58 000-60 000 are. The technicals of this trade are as follows:
STOP LOSS: 52 000
TARGET: 60 000
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT The share price for British American Tobacco (BTI) has been moving in a descending channel on the daily timframe, as evidenced by lower highs and lower lows. The price has just broke out of a corrective ascending channel (counter trend) on the 4-hour timeframe and came back to retest the previous-support-turned-resistance at the price level of 57730. I expect prices to trickle down further, if they do not create higher highs and higher lows, and the possible targets are:
Target 1: 50 720
Target 2: 43 856
THIS IS A GREAT SETUP FOR A BIG MOVE!British American Tobacco (JSE:BTI), is one of the top 5 tobacco companies in the world, owning popular tobacco brands like Palmal, Kent, Lucky Strike Dunhill, Kool, Benson and Hedges, Peter Stuyvesant and Rothmans. With its headquarters in London, BAT has global operations in more than 180 countries. BAT shares are for sale on the London Stock Exchange and have a secondary listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE).
BTI has partnerships with more than 90,000 farmers and factories in 42 countries. 9 of the group’s 44 factories are located in Africa and BAT has had a presence in South Africa for more than 100 years. Established in 1976, the factory in Heidelberg is the eighth largest BAT factory in the world, producing more than 27 billion cigarettes a year for local and export markets.
The world has become far more health conscious than before and this is evident in the share price movements over the last 2.5 years. E-cigarettes are the key focus of the large tobacco manufacturers but don't seem to be selling quite as well as they would have hoped. I am sure that we can expect innovation from the large manufacturers on the heated tobacco topic but this will definitely not be without it's challenges.
It seems the big tobacco companies are strategising around health research that it’s smoke, not nicotine, that causes cancer and associated lung diseases. Part of the strategy will be to develop smaller versions of the Glo Stick with higher levels of nicotine in order to boost sales.
Generally speaking, we think that individual smokers will consume fewer cigarettes each and smaller percentages of populations will smoke. While cigarette sales in developed countries continue to decline year-on-year, sustained volume growth is widely predicted in emerging markets, driven by population growth and increasing disposable income. As a result, the overall value of the tobacco market continues to increase.
This value is expected to continue growing in the future. The resilience of the industry is underlined by the continued year-on-year net revenue growth, at constant rates of exchange.
Let's look at the technicals.
Weekly (pink): The steady share price increase on the left of the chart came to quite a sudden stop around June 2016. I am now looking at the corrective structure formation which has unfolded since that point. According to my analysis, we are in wave 3 of the correction. We can see the effort the share price has made to reverse from earlier this year and we may possibly see some upside from this point. It is also a possibility that there will be further decline and wave 3 could lengthen. In the longer term I am expecting price to move back to the top of the weekly structure.
Daily (blue): A look at the daily time frame shows a likely structure setup which ties in with the larger perspective as well. This is very likely the start of wave 3 on the daily structure which would also indicate the start of wave 4 on the weekly structure. Both setups have the potential to yield a large move to the upside.
H4 (green): As you can see on the chart above, price has just broken out of the H4 correction. This indicates that it is unlikely to have another wave to the downside and that the move to the upside has begun. The chart above illustrates the entry and exit levels that I will be looking at for this trade. Enjoy the freebie!
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Happy Trading!
Linton