EURGBP 4H Channel Down topped. Drop expected.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since the February 12 High. Technically that pattern is similar to the Channel Down of late January, which saw an accelerated decline after it failed to break above the 4H MA50.
We expect the pattern to complete a similar -2.18% decline and target 0.81750.
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Britishpound
GBP/USD: Distribution Signals a Drop to 1.25GBP/USD appears to be in a distribution phase, struggling to break through resistance around 1.2620. The price has formed multiple rejection points at this level, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
The recent lower high, combined with a potential break of the ascending trendline, suggests sellers are regaining control. If price breaches the key support zone, a move towards the 1.2500 region becomes increasingly likely.
With a bearish harmonic pattern and liquidity grab indications, GBP/USD could see further downside as selling pressure intensifies.
GBP/USD Market Analysis – Bearish Reversal from Harmonic PatternThe GBP/USD pair has completed a Crab harmonic pattern , with price reaching the 1.618 extension level and reacting strongly at resistance near 1.2617. The rejection suggests a potential bearish reversal.
Initial downside targets (T1 and T2) are at 1.2515 and 1.2445. If price sustains below 1.2593 (AB=CD level), further downside is likely. However, a breakout above the high could invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should watch for confirmation signals before taking positions.
EURGBP Channel Down sell signalThe EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. The recent Lower High rejection just above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) resembles both in terms of 1D RSI and price action the August 08 2024 Lower High.
Since that posted an initial correction of -3.62%, we expect an equivalent Bearish Leg to target 0.81750.
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Market Analysis: Bullish Harmonic Bat Pattern on GBP/USDOverview of the Setup :
This chart highlights a **Bullish Harmonic Bat Pattern** on the GBP/USD pair, with the potential for a reversal to the upside after completing the pattern near the critical support zone.
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** Key Observations:
1. Harmonic Pattern :
- The **Bullish Bat Pattern** completes at point X (around 1.22628), which aligns with the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level of the XA leg. This level represents a strong confluence of support and potential reversal.
- The reaction at this zone suggests that buyers may be stepping in.
2. Price Action :
- The recent downtrend has reached exhaustion at point X, with the price consolidating and showing signs of a potential reversal.
- The price has formed a **lower wick**, indicating rejection of lower levels and possible bullish momentum building.
3. Fibonacci and Take-Profit Targets :
- **Take-Profit Levels (TP):**
- **T1:** 1.23541 (50% retracement of the XA leg).
- **T2:** 1.24187 (0.618 retracement of the XA leg).
- The harmonic structure suggests these levels as the most probable targets for a bullish reversal.
4. Indicators :
- **Stochastic Oscillator:** In the oversold territory, signaling the likelihood of upward price movement as selling pressure weakens.
- **RSI:** Approaching oversold levels, further supporting the bullish reversal hypothesis.
5. Key Levels :
- **Support Zone:** Point X near 1.2260 is the critical level for the pattern’s validity.
- **Resistance Zones:** MHQP at 1.2500 is a longer-term resistance, while intermediate resistance levels are 1.2350 and 1.2418.
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Outlook and Strategy :
- **Bullish Bias:** The completion of the Bullish Bat Pattern and confluence of support suggest an opportunity for long positions targeting the Fibonacci take-profit levels (T1 and T2).
- **Entry Zone:** Enter long positions near 1.2260 if price action shows sustained bullish rejection.
- **Stop-Loss:** Place stops below 1.2220 to account for false breakouts.
- **Targets:**
- **T1:** 1.2350
- **T2:** 1.2418
Risk Factors :
- A sustained break below 1.2260 would invalidate the pattern and could lead to continued bearish momentum toward 1.2200.
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This analysis highlights a bullish opportunity driven by the completion of the harmonic pattern, with clearly defined entry, exit, and risk parameters.
GBPUSD Channel Down top rejection calls for selling.GBPUSD is trading inside a Channel Down and the price is testing its top again for the 4th time in 1 week.
This looks to us like December 17th, a rejection on the 0.5 Fib and MA200 (4h) that initiated a drop to the 1.5 Fib extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.2110 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) of the rejection series is also identical to December's.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
GBPUSD: Channel Down forming a top on the 1D MA50.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.465, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 25.916) hitting today its 1D MA50 for the first time after October 9th 2024. By doing so, it reached the top of the 4 month Channel Down and is technically the best level to short. Attention is required as the 1D RSI broke over its 4 month Rectangle, so it may be an early bullish breakout signal, but until we close a candle over the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and this is the most cost-effective short. The last 0.5 Fibonacci rejection (December 6th) targeted the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This time we will aim a little higher than that (TP = 1.1950) to match the % decline of the previous bearish waves.
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GBPNZD Technical buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into the GBPNZD pair (October 02 2024, see chart below), we issued a clear buy signal at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, that easily hit the 2.1900 Target:
Yet again, the price got rejected at the top of the Channel Up and pulled-back where it is consolidating below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In the 12 months of this pattern, this has always been an excellent technical buy opportunity, with the minimum immediate rally being +4.15%.
As a result, we feel confident buying this pair and target 2.2550.
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EURBGP: Sell signal on the Channel Down top.EURGBP is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.286, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 49.271) as it crossed over the 1D MA200 and almost touched the top of the short term Channel Down. This is a solid first entry for a short, the second being under the 1W MA200 near the dashed trendline of the long term Channel Down. Target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (TP = 0.82800).
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Old supportPair just landed on a more than two years old support trendline. Do you think is going to break it through? I don't think so. You can start opening a small position and add if the support is holding up. SL triggers if a big daily candles break it down the support but it has to close way under it. In that case, I would short it.
GBPUSD Ultimate buy signal at the bottom of the 2year Channel UpThe GBPUSD pair brutally reversed this week's early gains and the 1W candle will most likely close in red after making a new Low. The trend has been bearish since the September 23 2024 High and has been accelerated after the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection in early December.
This is however the ultimate long-term buy opportunity as the price is almost at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up. On top of that, the 1W RSI is almost on the oversold barrier (30.00), a level intact since October 2022.
As long as the price is closing within the Channel Up, we see a rebound towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level very likely, as it happened in November 2023. Our Target is 1.2950.
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GBPAUD Channel Up pull-back expected.Our last GBPAUD signal (September 27 2024, see chart below) couldn't have gone any better as, not only did it hit our 1.92600 Sell Target but the price then also bounced to hit the top of its Channel Up:
The price is currently on a rejection path following the new Higher High of the Channel Up and based on the previous Bearish Leg, it should hit at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result, our Target is now 1.09600.
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British Pound Sterling (GBP): A History and Trading OverviewBritish Pound Sterling (GBP): A History and Trading Overview
The British pound, one of the oldest and most traded currencies, holds a central role in the global forex market. Known for its volatility and economic significance, the pound presents unique opportunities and challenges for traders. This article explores British money’s history, key factors driving its value, major trading pairs, and insights into how it’s traded.
Origins and Historical Evolution of British Pound Sterling
The British Pound Sterling, represented by the pound symbol £ and known by the British pound abbreviation GBP, has a rich history stretching back over a thousand years, making it one of the oldest continuously used currencies. Its origins trace to the Anglo-Saxon period, around the 8th century, when it was first introduced as a silver-based currency.
Back then, one pound of sterling silver could be divided into 240 silver pennies—a substantial amount. The currency evolved as England developed its economy and trading networks, solidifying the pound’s status as a cornerstone of UK money and commerce across Europe.
During the late 17th century, the establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 marked a turning point, allowing the British government to issue notes and coins on a larger scale. Later, the central bank adopted the gold standard in the 19th century and pegged the pound’s value to gold, enhancing its stability and appeal. However, the turbulent economic climate following World War I and the Great Depression led to abandoning the gold standard, allowing the pound to float in value—a status it maintains today.
Why Is a Pound Called Sterling?
The term “sterling” is linked to the British currency’s origins as high-quality silver coins. Medieval England’s silver coins, made primarily from “sterling” silver, had a reputation for purity and reliability, giving rise to the enduring name “Pound Sterling.” This name reflects the currency's legacy as a reliable and trusted medium of exchange.
Is a Quid the Same as Pounds?
Yes, a pound vs quid refers to the same unit of currency. In the UK, British “quid” is just informal slang for one pound. Similar to how Americans might say “buck” for a dollar, “quid” is used informally across the UK. Whether referring to the British pound sign £1 or a larger amount, there is no difference between “quid” and “pound” in everyday conversation, although “quid” isn’t an official term and doesn’t appear on banknotes or coins.
In comparing a quid vs pound vs pence, quid and pound refer to the same unit of currency: one pound. In contrast, a pence is worth 1/100th of a pound. 100 pence make up a pound, akin to how 100 cents make up a dollar.
The British Pound in the 20th Century
In the 20th century, the pound faced dramatic shifts as Britain navigated global economic challenges and geopolitical shifts. After World War I, Britain tried to reinstate the gold standard in 1925, hoping it would bring stability. However the post-war economy was fragile, and by 1931, the gold standard was abandoned permanently, allowing the pound to fluctuate with market conditions. This move was crucial—it marked the pound’s transition to a free-floating currency, where its value was driven by demand and supply rather than a fixed link to gold.
World War II and its aftermath further tested the pound’s resilience. Britain’s economy suffered significant losses, and by 1949, the government was forced to devalue the pound by about 30% against the dollar to support post-war recovery efforts. The pound experienced another major drop in 1967, as Britain faced growing debt and economic pressure.
Fast forward to 1992, and the pound’s status faced another test during the “Black Wednesday” crisis. Britain’s attempt to keep the pound within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) led to massive currency speculation. As traders shorted the GBP, meaning they expected it to lose value, the government struggled, ultimately withdrawing from the ERM—a pivotal decision that set the pound free from strict European exchange constraints.
Factors Driving the British Pound
Several key factors influence the value of the UK’s currency, from economic indicators to political events, making it a responsive currency in the forex market.
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy
The British pound’s value is heavily influenced by the Bank of England (BoE) and its monetary policies. The BoE’s primary tool for managing the pound is its interest rate policy. When the BoE raises rates, it often strengthens the pound by attracting investors seeking higher returns on UK assets. Conversely, lowering rates can weaken the pound, as it reduces the currency's appeal.
The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee meets regularly to assess economic conditions and decide on potential adjustments. Statements from these meetings can create significant market reactions, as traders interpret them for clues on future policies. In addition to interest rates, the BoE may also implement quantitative easing (QE) during economic downturns, increasing the money supply to stimulate growth. While the QE can help the economy, it often weakens the pound due to an increase in supply.
The actions of other central banks also impact the pound’s value relative to another currency. For instance, if the Fed raises rates while the BoE keeps theirs unchanged, the dollar could strengthen against the pound.
Major Economic Indicators and Events
The British pound’s value is highly responsive to a range of economic indicators and events, as these reflect the health of the UK economy and inform expectations for future growth.
GDP Growth
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are a crucial indicator for the pound. Solid GDP growth indicates a strong economy, which often strengthens the currency. Conversely, sluggish growth or contraction signals economic trouble, which can weaken the pound. Traders closely watch quarterly GDP releases as they give direct insight into the UK’s economic performance.
Inflation Rates
Inflation is a key driver for the pound due to its direct link with interest rates. The Bank of England targets a 2% inflation rate, and if inflation rises significantly above this level, the BoE may respond by raising rates, which tends to strengthen the pound. Low or declining inflation can have the opposite effect, reducing the likelihood of rate hikes and putting pressure on the currency.
Employment Data
Employment reports, especially the monthly unemployment rate and wage growth data, offer a snapshot of the labour market’s health. A low unemployment rate and rising wages indicate economic strength, typically supporting the pound. Weak employment data, on the other hand, can signal economic challenges, potentially leading to a weaker currency.
Global Risk Sentiment
The British pound has a complex relationship with global risk sentiment, sometimes acting as a “risk barometer” for the UK and global markets. Unlike so-called traditional safe-haven currencies like the US dollar or Japanese yen, the pound doesn’t have a role as a refuge during periods of market stress.
During times of global uncertainty, the pound can weaken as investors move funds into potentially safer assets. For example, during major economic downturns or political crises, traders might sell off the pound in favour of currencies like the dollar or yen, which are seen as more resilient. This behaviour stems from the pound’s relatively high volatility.
On the other hand, in periods of optimism or risk-on sentiment, the pound can attract investment, especially if the UK economy is performing well. The currency benefits from the UK’s open financial market, which can draw in foreign capital when investors feel confident about economic growth.
Political Events
The pound is highly sensitive to domestic political developments like any other currency. Events like general elections, referendums, and policy decisions usually cause swift price movements. For example, Brexit created significant uncertainty, leading to heightened pound volatility. Political stability, or lack thereof, affects investor confidence, influencing the pound's value in response to perceived risks or opportunities.
Trade Relationships
The UK's trade balance, particularly with key partners like the EU and the US, also impacts the pound. A positive trade balance (more exports than imports) often supports the currency, while a deficit can put downward pressure on it, as more pounds are exchanged for foreign currency to pay for imports.
Trading the British Pound
Trading the British pound offers opportunities for those interested in both major and cross-currency pairs. Its reputation for volatility and responsiveness to economic data makes it an appealing choice for various trading strategies.
What Is the Best Pair to Trade With GBP?
Traders can trade the pound through several pairs, each offering unique characteristics. GBP/USD is the most popular, providing high liquidity and frequent price movement. This pair is particularly attractive for traders who closely follow UK and US economic indicators, as these two economies often drive its volatility.
GBP/JPY is another popular choice for those seeking higher volatility, as it tends to have larger price swings due to the yen’s so-called safe-haven status. Additionally, EUR/GBP is favoured by those interested in the close economic ties between the UK and the Eurozone, often providing interesting trends influenced by regional economic policies.
Technical Analysis
GBP pairs are well-suited to technical analysis, with traders commonly using tools like support and resistance levels, trendlines, and moving averages. Patterns such as double tops and bottoms are frequently observed, and indicators like the MACD and RSI can help identify potential entry points based on overbought or oversold conditions. GBP’s volatility makes it ideal for momentum-based strategies, where traders look for strong price movements to capture gains.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis is essential when trading the pound, given its sensitivity to UK economic data and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy. Traders often monitor GDP growth, inflation, employment figures, and BoE’s interest rate decisions, as these have immediate effects on pound valuation. Additionally, political events such as elections or Brexit-related developments can create rapid shifts, making it crucial to stay informed about current affairs that could impact the currency.
Risk Management
Given the pound’s volatility, effective risk management is vital. Traders may potentially enhance their strategies by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and position sizing to account for the currency’s larger price swings. Observing correlations with other currencies, like EUR/USD, can also help manage exposure and offer additional insights when the pound exhibits similar or diverging trends.
GBP/USD Pair Characteristics
So what is GBP known for today? In the modern age, the pound is easily recognised by the pound’s sign (£) and remains one of the most traded currencies worldwide, particularly in pairs like GBP/USD, known as “Cable.” This pair represents the exchange rate between the British pound and the US dollar, capturing the relationship between two of the world’s largest economies.
Liquidity and Volatility
GBP/USD is known for high liquidity, especially during London and New York trading hours when the UK and US markets overlap. This liquidity attracts significant trading volume, leading to relatively tight spreads, especially during peak trading times. However, GBP/USD is also notably volatile, meaning it can experience sharp movements over short periods. This volatility is often driven by economic releases, political events, and market sentiment.
Role in Forex Market
As one of the major currency pairs, GBP/USD is a cornerstone of forex trading. It represents around 9% of total daily forex turnover. Traders follow it closely due to its sensitivity to key economic indicators, interest rate decisions, and policy changes from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. GBP/USD's unique position as both a "major" and an often volatile pair allows it to reflect broader market trends and risk sentiment effectively.
Which Pair Correlates With GBP/USD?
The GBP/USD pair frequently shows a correlation with other major pairs, particularly EUR/USD. This is largely due to their shared link to the US dollar. When EUR/USD experiences a strong trend, GBP/USD may often follow suit, although the unique economic factors affecting the UK and Eurozone can cause deviations in their movements.
Additionally, USD/CHF often shows an inverse correlation with GBP/USD, as the Swiss franc serves as a so-called safe-haven currency (more so than the US dollar), moving oppositely in risk-off markets.
To explore these correlations, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to get started with real-time forex charts.
The Bottom Line
The British pound remains a dynamic and influential currency in forex markets, offering ample opportunities for traders at all levels. Its rich history, market responsiveness, and diverse trading pairs make it an essential choice for those looking to engage in global currency trading. To start trading the pound and other pairs with it, open an FXOpen account and take advantage of four advanced trading platforms, low costs, and fast execution speeds.
FAQ
What Is GBP Currency?
GBP is the abbreviation for the British pound, the official currency of the United Kingdom. Often referred to as “British pound sterling,” it’s one of the oldest and most traded currencies globally, denoted by the pound symbol, £.
Is GBP Getting Stronger Against the Euro?
The pound’s strength against the euro fluctuates based on economic conditions in the UK and Eurozone. As of late 2024, the pound has been getting stronger against the euro recently due to a less restrictive monetary policy stance from the European Central Bank.
What Country Has the Oldest Currency?
The UK has the world’s oldest currency still in use. The pound sterling dates back over a thousand years, tracing its origins to the Anglo-Saxon period.
When to Trade GBP Pairs?
GBP pairs are most active during the London trading session, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. GMT. Volatility can increase when UK or US economic data is released.
Which GBP Pair Is Most Volatile?
GBP/JPY is typically the most volatile GBP pair, due to the yen’s role as a so-called safe-haven currency. It can experience larger price fluctuations compared to other GBP pairs.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
From Pound to Penny: GBP/USD’s One-Way Ticket to Parityville📉 Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! The Pound is on a slippery slope that even gravity is impressed by! 🪂
💷🔥 GBP is officially auditioning for the role of "Least Valuable Currency" in the global markets. Meanwhile, the USD is sitting back and saying, "Is this a race I’ve already won?!" 🦅💪
🔮 Chart Forecast:
Upper Line: "Don't even think about coming here." 🙅♂️
Lower Line: "Welcome to Rock Bottom! Parity is right this way 👉" 🪨
Yellow Arrow: "GBP’s career path—straight to the floor." 🚀👇
📜 Key Message:
Hold onto your wallets (literally) because at this rate, £10 might only buy you £9 worth of disappointment. 💔
💬 What do you think? Will the Pound make a heroic comeback or keep freefalling into financial history? 🤔⬇️
#ForexHumor #GBPvsUSD #FromHeroToZero
GBPJPY Strong bullish break out inside the Channel Up.GBPJPY is having its strongest (1d) candle today in almost 18 months.
The main pattern is a Channel Up and this rise is extending its new bullish wave.
The previous one retested the MA50 (1d) after crossing over it and the resumed the uptrend to peak on a +8.70% rise.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next MA50 (1d) test.
Targets:
1. 204.500 (+8.70% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) formed a Bullish Cross 9 days ago, the 3rd inside this 5month Channel Up, which confirms that we are on a bullish wave.
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GBPJPY: Channel Up rally has started.The GBPJPY pair is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.167, MACD = -0.620, ADX = 31.719) as so far it remains under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which are very close to each other. Basically today we are having a clean technical rejection on those two. In spite of this, the prevailing pattern is a Channel Up and we have already started the 3rd bullish wave. The two prior started after a 1D RSI Bullish Cross and the shortest one has been +7.34%. We are aiming for this extension (TP = 201.900).
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GBPUSD: Channel Up attempting a 4H MA200 cross.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.376, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 36.982) as despite having started a Channel up since the November 22nd bottom, this is after a long term bearish trend that only now will determine if it will switch to bullish or not. Today was in fact the 2nd rejection on the 4H MA200 but at the same time, the 4H MA50 is supporting. This range makes the 4H timeframe neutral as well. If the MA50 continues to hold and the 4H MA200 is crossed with a full candle close, then we will take a short term long, aiming under the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.29000).
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Why GBP Is the Alpha Wolf: Decoding the Market's Next Big MoveThe COT strategy has revealed potent setups once again. The codes are unlocking the market’s next likely moves. What you’re about to read is no ordinary analysis—this is how the game is truly played.
This week, GBP and CHF stand out. EUR and NZD also look promising. So, why focus on GBP & CHF? The answer is strength. While EUR & NZD took out their April lows, GBP & CHF did not. The strong remain strong. Align yourself with the wolf leading the pack.
Consider GBP. It’s more than just a setup—it's a symphony of signals:
Code #1: COT Indexes
Commercials: 100% Bullish
Small Specs: 100% Bearish
The crowd is fading into weakness. The pros are betting on strength.
Code #2: Small Spec Positioning
The masses are nearly maxed out on shorts. History tells us their extreme is our opportunity. We fade the crowd.
Code #3: Valuation
Using the WillVal tool:
GBP is undervalued relative to Gold, Treasuries, and USD. This is a fundamental misalignment—the market is screaming 'buy.' The code agrees.
Code #4: True Seasonal
Seasonal trends align. GBP’s true path is bullish up to Jan/Feb. Time and trend converge.
The final pieces of the puzzle:
Accumulation: Insider activity shows heavy buying pressure.
Weekly %R: Sitting in the buy zone.
Rate of Change (ROC): Near the bottoming zone. Strength is brewing.
So why GBP over the others? Comparative Strength. GBP & CHF resisted weakness while EUR & NZD faltered. The strong wolf will not be dragged down by the weak. This isn’t a trade—it’s a strategy rooted in probabilities, not guesswork.
Triggers have fired. I’m already long. But remember: this isn’t an invitation to blindly enter. Fundamentals identify the opportunity, technicals time the precision strike. Discipline is the edge.
The question is simple: What will you do with this information?
Will you continue wandering the Matrix, chasing shadows in the market? Or will you learn to see the code that governs it all?
The choice is yours. I can show you how deep this rabbit hole goes. DM me if you’re ready to truly learn how to trade commodity futures like a pro.
There’s no turning back once you see the truth.
GBPUSD Channel Up on (1h) bottomed.The GBPUSD pair is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price made contact with its bottom today and is giving a buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.2800 (+1.50% rise, same as the last bullish wave).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) hit the same level as on November 26th. That was the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up.
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EURGBP: Channel Down and 1D MA50 rejection pushing it lower.EURGBP is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.920, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 31.550) as it failed to cross over the 1D MA50 and it remains on a LH inside the Channel Down. The weakest decline upon a 1D MA50 rejection has been -1.45%. That is what we're aiming for (TP = 0.82545).
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