Britishpound
GBPUSD Approaching the bottom of the Channel DownThe GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the May 27 2022 High. The price is approaching the Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) of the pattern, which happens to be a 3.0 Fibonacci extension and chances of a short-term rebound are high. Potential targets first the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down in extension. Keep in mind that only a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) break-out is capable of sustaining further uptrend. Until then, trading within the Channel Down is the go to on the short-term.
Keep in mind though that on the long-term we may be ahead of a strong bullish reversal as the RSI on the 1W time-frame has been on Higher Lows since May 16, while the actual price has been on Lower Lows, i.e. giving a Bullish Divergence.
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GBPNZD Excellent buy level for a rally to the end of the yearThe GBPNZD pair has been following exactly our trading plan since our last update a month ago, getting rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and hitting the Higher Lows zone of the long-term Triangle pattern that it has been trading in since the April 02 2020 High:
The initial rebound after the August 12 Low is seeing a pull-back in the last 10 days and that may be the perfect opportunity for those who missed it, to buy again. Our long-term target for the end of the year is just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.010. Those who seek more risk, there is also the Symmetrical Resistance if the Triangle breaks to the upside.
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GBPCHF Will the 10 year Support come to the rescue?The GBPCHF pair has been on a bearish trend since the April 2021 Top, which has been accelerated since June 2022 as the price has failed to recover and trade above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). In fact, this month has entered the huge Support Zone that dates all the way back to the August 2011 low! Within those 11 years of trading, the lowest level has been the March 2020 COVID crash of 1.1125.
The RSI on the 1M time-frame is at the lowest level since October 2016. All these paint the picture of a strong multi-month Support Zone right ahead. On a long-term basis, it is worth building up buy positions or trade the break-out above the 1D MA50, with a long-term target on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during this 10 year span was always hit when the price broke above the 1D MA50.
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GBPAUD Strong buy on a monthly basisThe GBPAUD pair has started the week on a strong note, with the current 1W candle being the longest green (so far) since September 21 2020. That shows incredible buying sentiment especially following a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and the 1W RSI being on Higher Lows since April 04 2022. When the price is on Lower Lows, as is the case now, this is a Bullish Divergence potentially indicating a trend shift upwards.
We saw the very same set of parameters align back in the July - December 2020 sequence. After a Support re-test, the price started a strong long-term uptrend above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If you are on this for the long-term, there are few better levels to buy and target the 1.5 Fib at 1.8340.
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EURGBP Rejected on the 1D MA200The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the June 15 High. It is making Lower Lows on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension each time. On Friday the price got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and today it is reversing lower. Keep in mind that the previous Lower High got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that this is an ideal sell opportunity on the medium-term. You can target 0.8250, which isn't just the 1.382 Fib extension but also the April 14 Low, rendering this level as the next horizontal Support.
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GBPCAD preparing a strong rally to the 1D MA200The GBPCAD pair broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 24 and is consolidating. This is the first sign that the trend might be changing from long-term bearish to bullish. This is evident on the 1D RSI which has been on Higher Lows for months. The very same pattern was last seen in Q3/ Q4 2021. After the price broke above the 1D MA50 on November 26 2021 and got rejected, it posted an end-pattern rally to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result we are bullish long-term on this pair, targeting at least the 1D MA200.
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GBPNZD targeting 2.010 after this pull-back is completedThe GBPNZD pair is trading below both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the past week. This is not an unfamiliar trading set-up as the same W pattern was last seen from October 2018 to October 2019. The last Lower High of the long-term Triangle pattern was on February 03 2022 so currently, in terms of RSI also, we are on the last pull-back before the final rally to complete the pattern. Our long-term target is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 2.010.
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GBPCHF Long-term Buy OpportunityThe GBPCHF pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern since the April 05 2021 High. Every Lower Low has been on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the previous and the recent series of Lower Highs have been rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
The price is now testing the Lower Lows trend-line and that makes it an automatic buy. The short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and long-term the 1D MA200. Invalidation of the Megaphone is a sell signal, targeting the 1.786 Fib extension again.
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GBPJPY Trade according to these levelsThe GBPJPY pair has previously formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that hasn't yet fulfilled its levels. The reason is the Lower Highs trend-line that has been formed since the June 09 High. Only a break above that level, which caused a rejection yesterday, can initiate a new bullish wave, in which case our targets will be 168.535 and if the Channel Up breaks, then pursue the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the IH&S.
Until that happens, we are on a short-term sell, targeting the Higher Lows trend-line. After that, only a break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) can justify further selling.
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GBPUSD continues to be a sell unless the 1D MA50 breaks.It's been 1.5 months since our last GBPUSD analysis where a perfect sell signal was given:
The pattern continues to be a Bearish Megaphone since late February and continues to trade below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since February 24. This is the critical level for the GBPUSD pair. As long as the price trades below it, which now is exactly on the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Bearish Megaphone, the pair is more likely to chase a Lower Low on the next Fibonacci extension available, which is the 3.0 Fib around 1.1500.
A break above the 1D MA50 is a buy signal to 1.2600 (1.5 Fib) on the short and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
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EUR/GBP Trendline Breakout Might Have Been a False OneEUR/GBP broke under a near-term rising trendline from April back in early July.
While the Euro weakened after the breakout, it seems that the single currency is trying to make a comeback.
Prices were unable to break under the 100-day Simple Moving Average. This means the Golden Cross with the 50-day line is still in play.
Breaking above the 50-day line from here could be a hint that further gains may come. Such an outcome would place the focus on highs from June.
Otherwise, further losses would place the focus on lows from April.
💵British Pound/New Zealand Dollar 💵Analyze !!!British Pound can make a Regular Contracting Triangle, and now it seems that the Pound was able to find point D of the Triangle in the Support Zone & the lower line of the triangle & SMA 100 (Daily TF). I expect that the Pound can go UP to the upper line of the Triangle, and then again Pound will go DOWN to the Important Support Line.
🟢Support Zone🟢: 1.932 NZD until 1.924 NZD
🔅British Pound/New Zealand Dollar Analyze ( GBPNZD ) Time frame 8H⏰
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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GBPAUD Neutral within a Rectangle since AprilThe GBPAUD has been trading within a very simple Rectangle pattern since early April, giving traders excellent sideways opportunities. At the moment the price is around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but with the MACD on a Bearish Cross (all of whom led to Lows), it is more likely to see a new selling leg towards the Support of the pattern.
This time, there is the Higher Lows trend-line involved, that has initiated short-term rebounds twice already, so the most appropriate course of action would be to buy just above that trend-line on a tight SL, targeting the Resistance but be quick to reverse to a sell aimed at the Support if a 1D candle closes below the trend-line.
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EURGBP Bullish with 1D MA60 holdingThe EURGBP pair has been trading exactly as our last analysis projected on May 24:
The Channel Up on the 1D time-frame continues to be dominant after the bearish trend of 2021 broke. Key highlight is that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been holding since the price broke above on April 22 and today is going for a test. As long as it holds, the price remains bullish short-term towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the Resistance as it had a perfect rejection on June 15. A break above it is bullish towards the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Up, while a break below the pattern and the 1D MA50 is bearish short-term towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A 1D candle close below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could restore the bearish trend on the long-term.
It is worth noticing the 1D MACD band squeeze since late May. The last time it happened was in May 2021 and was at the start of the Bearish Megaphone. We can claim that this formation is an accumulation pattern that favors the dominant trend each time.
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