Britishpound
EURGBP Bullish with 1D MA60 holdingThe EURGBP pair has been trading exactly as our last analysis projected on May 24:
The Channel Up on the 1D time-frame continues to be dominant after the bearish trend of 2021 broke. Key highlight is that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been holding since the price broke above on April 22 and today is going for a test. As long as it holds, the price remains bullish short-term towards the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is the Resistance as it had a perfect rejection on June 15. A break above it is bullish towards the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Up, while a break below the pattern and the 1D MA50 is bearish short-term towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A 1D candle close below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) could restore the bearish trend on the long-term.
It is worth noticing the 1D MACD band squeeze since late May. The last time it happened was in May 2021 and was at the start of the Bearish Megaphone. We can claim that this formation is an accumulation pattern that favors the dominant trend each time.
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BRITISH POUND FUTURES (6B1!), H1 Potential for Bearish DropType : Bearish Drop
Resistance : 1.2335
Pivot: 1.2181
Support : 1.1950
Preferred Case: On the H1, price is moving below the ichimoku cloud and has recently broken out from the ascending trendline which gives us a bearish bias that prices will drop to the pivot at 1.2181 where the 100% fibonacci projection, 50% fibonacci retracement and swing low support are. Once there is downside confirmation that price has drop to pivot, we would expect bearish momentum to carry prices to 1st support at 1.1950 where the swing low support and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may rise to the 1st resistance level at 1.2335 in line with the swing high resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 61.8% fibonacci retracement .
Fundamentals: UK CPI y/y data was released at 9.1% and Core CPI at 5.9%, with the GBP strengthening through the session, giving us a weak bullish bias for the british pound.
British pound-USDGreetings,
An interesting picture is emerging on the British pound.
General picture.
The instrument is in the consolidation for 6 years, at the moment the price is at its lower boundary. The more times it tests it, the weaker is this support. But since we look at the currency, this process can take months. Nevertheless, if the price leaves the area of 1.20-1.21 and consolidates under it, it might be a good short-set to the area of
1,13-1,14.
Local picture.
On a smaller TF the same consolidation is formed on a smaller scale. Trade inside the consolidation from the boundaries with the targets of the middle of the channel. With the entry point not when approaching the boundary, but when it bounces off the boundary at support/resistance confirmation. This method of trading is suitable for experienced traders, I would recommend beginners to trade out of the long/short consolidation. This trading situation, I will also trade and in its implementation I will try to make an update.
Stay tuned.
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Always use STOP, and do not use a leverage higher than x3.
A trader must always have tomorrow.
GBPJPY Sell opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S), which is typically a technical Bearish Reversal formation. The Double Top initiated the first wave down, where all candles got contained above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) causing a 0.5 Fib rebound. Now the formation may see the second wave down. If the Support Zone breaks, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test. A 1D candle close below should be enough to finally test the Higher Lows trend-line for the first time since March 08.
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GBPCAD Rejected on the 1D MA50. Action plan ahead.The GBPCAD pair has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern, which broke last Thursday to the upside. So far this move has been short-lived as the price got rejected on Friday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and continues today this trend.
While the 1D price action has been on Lower Lows (Falling Wedge's bottom), the RSI has been on Higher Lows, indicating a hidden bullish divergence. The very same divergence was last seen in November/ early December 2021 with the pair trading again within a Falling Wedge. After again a 1D MA50 rejection, the price made an pull-back, then upside fake-out above the 1D MA50, which was still rejected on the Resistance of the previous Lower High, before finally making a Lower Low. That Low led to the true technical break-out that extended as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Right now the 0.618 Fib is around 1.66500. Our trading plan is to either buy on the previous Lower Low (around 1.5500) or if the 1.62100 Resistance level breaks first, and target the 0.618 Fib, which by the time will be on or above the 1D MA200, fulfilling the fractal analogy. An alternative to take profit on those buys would be when the RSI hits its Resistance level.
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GBPNZD Emerging Golden Cross targets 1.9830.The GBPNZD pair is close to forming a 1D Golden Cross, which is when the MA50 (blue trend-line) on the 1D time-frame crosses above the MA200 (orange trend-line). That is a technical bullish pattern.
As you see on the chart, every time the pair formed a 1D Golden Cross, it traded within a Channel Up pattern and the price rose to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and then the 2.0. Also the candle action printed a similar formation and they happened to be around the same levels. As a result we expect the price to trade higher within a new Channel Up and target 1.9830 (1.5 Fib) short-term.
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GBPCHF Strong buy opportunityLast time we analyzed the GBPCHF pair was a sell opportunity:
This time with a Channel Down having been developed inside the longer term Bearish Megaphone pattern, the price almost hit the Lower Lows trend-line yesterday. With the RSI printing a familiar bottom formation, this is a strong medium-term buy opportunity. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been hit during the previous two Lower Highs.
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GBPAUD Trading according to planThere isn't much to update on the GBPAUD pair, as since our last analysis on April 21, the price has been following our plan in a very precise way:
As you see, the similarities with the July - October 2020 sequence have paid off and the price action continues to follow that pattern. We are now at the point where the pair is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is used as the pivot point. The Diverging Lower Lows trend-line should provide the necessary Support to sustain this consolidation until the 1D Golden Cross is formed that will start the new rally towards the top of the long-term Channel Down. The ideal buy can be timed when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross.
On the other hand, if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks, be ready to sell towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, and then buy for the long-term.
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GBPUSD Sell as long as it fails on the 1D MA50The GBPUSD pair has hit our Target of the previous analysis, breaking in the process that Bearish Megaphone pattern to the downside:
Right now a new Bearish Megaphone has been formed with the price trading sideways near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after failing to break it on the May 27 High. Basically the price has been trading below the 1D MA50 since February 24, so that is an important Resistance level. As long as it holds, the pattern should target the 2.5 and 3.0 Fibonacci extension (1.1880 and 1.1505 respectively).
A break and 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 though should be enough to kick-start a medium-term rise to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As for the long-term, only a break above the Lower Highs trend-line that started one year ago in June 2021, can accumulate a wave of buyers and sustain a new bullish trend.
Note that if you are looking for a confirmed sell, wait until the 1D MACD makes the new Bearish Cross. It has been a very accurate signal for over 1 year.
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GBPJPY Long-term buy opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has been trading on a long-term Fibonacci Channel pattern as we outlined in our last analysis two months ago. Since May 12, the price is on a strong rebound having hit the 1D RSI Buy Zone. With the prior top resembling those of August 2020 and March 2021, the pair is more likely to extend this rise either instantly or less aggressively, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting.
In either case, the Target should be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Channel or at least when the 1D RSI enters its Sell Zone.
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British Pound / US DollarBy examining the situation of the trend in the timeframe of one hour from the last nine days, we see the continuation of the uptrend under a convergent pattern.
This convergent pattern indicates that traders are ultimately inclined to grow the pound despite the hesitations in the market.
There was no particular movement today in the London trading time, which indicates that the market is waiting for more data, which will be the case tomorrow.
Since mid-Friday, the trend has been enclosed in an incremental angle pattern that will break one of the oscillating sides in the same direction as the base of the pattern.
EURGBP New Channel Up aiming at 0.87500The EURGBP pair has formed a Channel Up since the March 07 2022 bottom as on May 06 2022 it broke above both Lower Highs trend-lines of the 2021 correction, practically confirming the shift from the bearish trend to the bullish trend on the long-term.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) have successfully formed a Support zone as the former held on the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 17. We should now see a Higher Higher at 0.86500 and after the profit-taking pull-back, a new HH around 0.87500.
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GBPUSD 30min TA : 05.16.22Examine the possible trend of the GBPUSD pair and the appealing ranges for possible positions. (LONG)
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⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 05.16.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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