GBPAUD Trading according to planThere isn't much to update on the GBPAUD pair, as since our last analysis on April 21, the price has been following our plan in a very precise way:
As you see, the similarities with the July - October 2020 sequence have paid off and the price action continues to follow that pattern. We are now at the point where the pair is consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is used as the pivot point. The Diverging Lower Lows trend-line should provide the necessary Support to sustain this consolidation until the 1D Golden Cross is formed that will start the new rally towards the top of the long-term Channel Down. The ideal buy can be timed when the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross.
On the other hand, if the Diverging Lower Lows trend-line breaks, be ready to sell towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the -0.5 Fibonacci extension, and then buy for the long-term.
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Britishpound
GBPUSD Sell as long as it fails on the 1D MA50The GBPUSD pair has hit our Target of the previous analysis, breaking in the process that Bearish Megaphone pattern to the downside:
Right now a new Bearish Megaphone has been formed with the price trading sideways near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after failing to break it on the May 27 High. Basically the price has been trading below the 1D MA50 since February 24, so that is an important Resistance level. As long as it holds, the pattern should target the 2.5 and 3.0 Fibonacci extension (1.1880 and 1.1505 respectively).
A break and 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 though should be enough to kick-start a medium-term rise to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As for the long-term, only a break above the Lower Highs trend-line that started one year ago in June 2021, can accumulate a wave of buyers and sustain a new bullish trend.
Note that if you are looking for a confirmed sell, wait until the 1D MACD makes the new Bearish Cross. It has been a very accurate signal for over 1 year.
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GBPJPY Long-term buy opportunityThe GBPJPY pair has been trading on a long-term Fibonacci Channel pattern as we outlined in our last analysis two months ago. Since May 12, the price is on a strong rebound having hit the 1D RSI Buy Zone. With the prior top resembling those of August 2020 and March 2021, the pair is more likely to extend this rise either instantly or less aggressively, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting.
In either case, the Target should be at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Channel or at least when the 1D RSI enters its Sell Zone.
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British Pound / US DollarBy examining the situation of the trend in the timeframe of one hour from the last nine days, we see the continuation of the uptrend under a convergent pattern.
This convergent pattern indicates that traders are ultimately inclined to grow the pound despite the hesitations in the market.
There was no particular movement today in the London trading time, which indicates that the market is waiting for more data, which will be the case tomorrow.
Since mid-Friday, the trend has been enclosed in an incremental angle pattern that will break one of the oscillating sides in the same direction as the base of the pattern.
EURGBP New Channel Up aiming at 0.87500The EURGBP pair has formed a Channel Up since the March 07 2022 bottom as on May 06 2022 it broke above both Lower Highs trend-lines of the 2021 correction, practically confirming the shift from the bearish trend to the bullish trend on the long-term.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) have successfully formed a Support zone as the former held on the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up on May 17. We should now see a Higher Higher at 0.86500 and after the profit-taking pull-back, a new HH around 0.87500.
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GBPUSD 30min TA : 05.16.22Examine the possible trend of the GBPUSD pair and the appealing ranges for possible positions. (LONG)
Follow us for more analysis & Feel free to ask any questions you have, we are here to help.
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Arman Shaban : @ArmanShabanTrading
📅 05.16.2022
⚠️(DYOR)
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GBPCAD Strong buy opportunity for the rest of the year.Back in February, which was our last GBPCAD idea, the pair was trading within a Channel Down that offered us an accurate sell trade:
Since then, the pattern broke to the downside and the pair now sits at more than -9% from its February 21 High. This however gives a new high probability pattern on the long-term as both the price action on the 1D time-frame and the 1D RSI suggests that it may be replicating the sell-off sequence of May 06 2019 - August 09 2019. That fractal bottomed after dropping around -10.50%. If however the price enters the red Ichimoku Cloud first, it will turn into a sell opportunity on the spot. In that case you can use the Fibonacci retracement levels as shorter-term targets (see how those got systematically filled with Higher Highs during the 2019 recovery) but on the long run, we do expect the 1.7378 Resistance to get hit. Draw the Fibonacci levels from the -10.40% level if the price doesn't enter the Ichimoku first.
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Euro May Be Readying to Reverse Against British Pound Post BoEThe Euro may be readying to push higher against the British Pound in the aftermath of Thursday's Bank of England monetary policy announcement.
There, it was revealed that two policymakers seemed further hiking as 'not appropriate'.
EUR/GBP has been steadily falling since 2020, with recent months on the premise of a more hawkish BoE compared to the European Central Bank.
This could be changing...
EUR/GBP cleared a falling trendline from September, as well as taking out the March high.
That has exposed November and September 2021 levels before the 0.8695 - 0.8731 resistance zone nears.
FX_IDC:EURGBP
GBPNZD Action plan depending on break-outsThe GBPNZD pair is currently under a rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Even though the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the next Support, based on the correction of 2020, we are more likely to see the trend turn bearish again than bullish. As a result, our plan is to sell as long as the price doesn't close a 1D candle above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (around 1.9850). The hard bearish target is the 2018 Higher Lows trend-line and if you want you may take the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (around 1.8300).
A break above the 0.786 Fib though (2.015 roughly), invalidates the bearish bias and instead should create a new long-term bullish pattern towards the Higher Highs, with our target on that occassion beaing 2.1000.
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