EURGBP approaching the long-term sell entryThe EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down since mid April 2021, practically a while year almost. As this 1D chart shows, the indicator that helps the most at identifying buy and sell entries is the RSI, which has a clear Resistance Zone (to open a price sell) and a Support Zone (to open a buy). Right now the RSI is near the Resistance Zone while the price is near the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down.
A rejection there will coincide with a rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and a Double Top on the 0.84785. The last such Double Top was seen on December 09 2021, where EURGBP got rejected and started a new sell sequence that made a Lower Low exactly on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension. Currently the new such extension is at 0.81000.
On the other hand, if the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) breaks to the upside (has been intact since January 13 2021), the trend shifts to bullish long-term and should technically start filling the Fibonacci extensions to the upside (1.382 to 2.0), which as you see happen to be almost exactly where previous Lower Highs of the Channel Down were.
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Britishpound
Forex analysis looking at the GBPUSD 1.30 the bottom?I am looking at the GBPUSD on a daily chart. It looks a lot better after holding 1.30 support levels and then the breakout.
I would like to see a nice break above 1.32 resistance and go from there to really determine if the pound is really ready to turn thing around. Next would be 1.34.
We can look back in the past and see levels of support are now resistance and also the lower highs and lower lows confirming the downtrend.
I do not trade forex much these days but I still look at the major fx pairs daily just to see what's going on.
Edit. In my pink bubble I wrote .132 but of course it is 1.32
GBPJPY Trading planThe pair has been trading within a Channel Up since early 2021. However as earlier in the pattern, it has been inside a corrective channel since the February 10 High. The recent geopolitical developments though in Ukraine have caused a massive rally in the past week and is close to breaking to the upside. If it does, we expect a new Higher High at 159.000. If it gets rejected at the top of the corrective channel, then we could see a new low within 151.000 - 150.000, before it recovers again.
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GBPUSD bottomed. 1 month of uptrend ahead.The GBPUSD pair is flashing a strong buy signal today, as it is rising on the 2nd straight green 1D candle following a Double Bottom on the 1D RSI. Monday's low happens to be exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line (based on the recent December 08 Low) of the Channel Down that started in mid 2021.
As a result, if the price closes above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), then we expect a roughly 1 month rise towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) again, within 1.3500 - 1.3550. As you see on the chart, the 1D MA200 has been the natural Resistance since the pair broke below it on September 16 2021 with two rejections already.
On the other hand, if Monday's low is compromised with a 1D candle closing below it, we expect the price to seek the -0.382 Fibonacci extension instead at around 1.2750. Be ready to adapt and have your SLs accordingly.
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GBPUSD 1-2 months trading plan.This is an update to my early February two month trading plan:
GDPUSD has hit eventually our 1.3200 downside target after being rejected on more time just below the Lower Highs trend-line of July 30 2021.
As you see, this trend-line is what's causing the long-term bearish trend on the pair, which can be alternatively viewed as a Channel Down, which only broke to the downside to test the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). At the same time the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) appears to be a Resistance level as since late September 2021 has rejected the price 2 times.
That (the 1D MA200) should be the target (actually would be more fair to set it at 1.3550) as long as the 1W MA200 is holding as a Support. It broken, the plan should be to take loss and sell instead targeting the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (1.2920). A 1D candle closing above the Lower Highs trend-line, should be treated as a bullish break-out signal (1.4000).
You can keep an eye on the 1D RSI for extra weight on timing the rebound. Since September 2021, every time it has hit the 30.000 level, the GPBUSD pair made a Lower Low and rebounded.
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GBPNZD testing 1D MA200. Buy opportunity if it holds.GBPNZD is testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) today after an almost 1 month correction since the February 03 High. That High was a Higher High on a +1 year series of Higher Highs. The last time we saw such an aggressive correction on a Higher Highs pattern to the 1D MA200, was in October - December 2019.
During that sequence, the pair did test the 1D MA200, which also happened to be on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (same as today), and as it held, it gave way to a new rally towards the 1.236 Fib extension.
As a result, we should keep an eye on the daily candle closings for a rebound on the 1D MA200. If it holds, I expect a Higher High near 2.0800 this time. This pattern may be invalidated if we get a weekly close below the 1D MA200, in which case we can expect a new test on the Higher Lows trend-line from 2018.
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