USDBRL - probable correction up to 5.60 aheadUSDBRL reached the target forecasted on the post of May 7, where it completed intermediate wave 3. It is now tracing minor wave A down and just seems to have finished minute wave 3. It should correct to around 5.60 where minute wave 4 should end before trending down again. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
BRL
Resistência de 1 ano rompida!Desde 25 de junho de 2019, o preço da Bitcoin contra oreal Brasileiro não tinha conseguido ultrapassar o nível de R$55'000,00. Isso mudou! O preço rompeu esse nível, e a meu ver a próxima resistência que a gente pode observar é a de R$70'000,00; observada na máxima histórica em dezembro de 2017.
Estou observando para ver se o preço usará o nível de 55 mil reais como suporte, para que busquemos níveis mais altos.
AVISO LEGAL: conteúdo com a intenção de informar, e não deve ser entendido como conselho financeiro.
Brazilian currency lost the battle against the US Dollar.This is my first analysis of the USDBRL pair. The Real has lost value in a parabolic fashion agains the American Dollar. The Dollar appear to have reached the top of the channel however the whole global scenario does not look in favor of the Brazilian currency strengthening agains the dollar, the case seems to be of maybe a top but i can't see it going really low into the channel. Unless some real extraordinary policies change in Brazil and the economy does really well, the Brazilian currency will be in a really bad shape for purchasing power into USA.
USD.BRL - small correction before new highsBrazilian real reached R$5.35 on April 9, as predicted in a previous post. It is now tracing a minor wave 4 that when completed will turn turn to another last move up in minor wave 5 that should elevate the currency to around R$5.45 to R$5.50. The most probable time frame for this target is around 3 to 4 months form now. This last move should complete primary wave 5 and after this the major trend should turn down. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
USDBRL - final stages of cycle wave 5 upBrazilian Real is tracing minor wave 5 of intermediate, primary and cycle wave 5. The pattern shows a complete five wave that would complete the pattern, however minor wave 5 could extend, therefore the target to confirm the trend down would be if prices crosses down 5.20. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES
USDBRL - correction down before new highsAs predicted, prices reached 5.392 and it seems to have completed or very near to completing minor b up. When complete, prices should correct in the range of 5.20 to 5.05 before moving up a final minor wave 5 of intermediate 5 of primary 5 of cycle 5 up that should reach the range of 5.50 to 5.60. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
USD.BRL - after wave 4, opportunity for gains - keep tuned !USDBRL is tracing minor wave 4, after it finishes, minor wave 5 of intermediate 5 of primary wave 5 should lift the currency pair to levels higher than 5.30. As minor wave 4 is in early stage we will have a more precise target for minor wave 5 some days ahead. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO RECEIVE UPDATES.
O suporte será quebrado?A Bitcoin rompeu a resistência da Média Móvel de 200 dias contra o Real Brasileiro no gráfico de velas diárias, e agora está retornando para testar esse mesmo nível como suporte.
Nos próximos dias, vou estar observando se esse nível será rompido ou usado como suporte!
AVISO LEGAL: o conteúdo postado nessa página tem propósito informativo e não deve ser usado como conselho financeiro. Tome decisões de investimento baseadas no seu próprio julgamento.
Brazilian Real under fire - USDBRL Macro OutlookThe Brazilian Real remains under fire due to a weakening commodity outlook, continued coronavirus concerns and impacts on LATAM/emerging market assets, revisions in inflationary outlook (down to 3.25% for 2020) and subsequent shifts in future monetary stimulus, high gross debt to GDP (~80%) and continued capital outflow from asset markets.
All within a risk-off climate supporting dollar bids.
We continue to see compelling evidence for a leg higher from a technical perspective with price supported by its 52-Week Moving Average, completion of the first corrective leg and an extension into our macro swing target of 5.00xx. Around a +16.00% move on the cards from here.
We have added buyside exposure across both our macro and directional portfolios.
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Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
USD/BRL failed to breakout from a major resistance line𝔹𝕖𝕗𝕠𝕣𝕖 𝕪𝕠𝕦 𝕣𝕖𝕒𝕕 𝕥𝕙𝕚𝕤 𝕚𝕕𝕖𝕒, 𝕡𝕝𝕖𝕒𝕤𝕖, 𝕔𝕝𝕚𝕔𝕜 𝕥𝕙𝕖 𝐋𝐈𝐊𝐄 𝐛𝐮𝐭𝐭𝐨𝐧 𝕥𝕠 𝕤𝕦𝕡𝕡𝕠𝕣𝕥 𝕞𝕪 𝕨𝕠𝕣𝕜.
𝕀 𝕨𝕠𝕦𝕝𝕕 𝕒𝕡𝕡𝕣𝕖𝕔𝕚𝕒𝕥𝕖 𝕚𝕥.
The pair failed to breakout from a major resistance line, sending the pair higher towards a major support line. The populist president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, has been leading South America since his election in January 2019. Known as the “Trump of South America”, he was able to gain full support for his plan to revive the largest trading bloc in the continent, the Mercosur, and banned Venezuela from the group. A recent report accuses Bolsonaro of orchestrating attacks to overthrow Nicholas Maduro. This comes at a time where the US has been very critical of the country, backing the opposition leader Juan Guaido to become Venezuela’s interim president. Moreover, Jair Bolsonaro praised the US for backing Brazil to become the newest member of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development). Washington previously backed Argentina, Brazil’s main economic rival, to become the next member of the group.
ridethepig | BRL 2020 Macro MapThis train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy.
Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this will provide profit taking and reloading opportunities in 2020. For those really wanting to dig deeper into the flows, retail housing market will be a useful gauge to the next chapter as it will highlight the pace / acceleration of the pick-up.
On the technical side, a very clean 5 wave sequence over a multi year period. What we are trading here is the ABC corrective leg via Brazil momentum and capturing a double whammy with USD devaluation. Here tracking 3.70x as the level in play for USDBRL in 2020 macro flows, I also favour BRL on other crosses in particular versus MXN:
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. We can open the Brazil conversation here for the year ahead. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies I have attached them in the related charts.
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle:
Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry.
If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside.
Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely).
Good luck those on the buy side.
EUR/BRL News and Charts for August 12, 2019The pair failed to breakout from a key resistance line, which will send the pair lower towards a major support line. Unpredictability was seen to be playing its game on the EU-Mercosur trade negotiations. The 20 years negotiation between the European Union and Brazil had finally come into an end after the two (2) economies agreed to draft deal which will open the market of the largest trading bloc in the world and the largest trading bloc in South America. However, negotiations to finalize the deal was still rough as the election of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro had caused Brazil’s deforestation to soar, an event that violates the agreed terms between the two (2) economies. Aside from this, Bolsonaro, also dubbed as “South America’s Trump”, had inherited U.S. President Donald Trump’s eccentric attitude after he cancelled a meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian for a haircut.
Previsão para agosto BTCBRL na MBTNão sei se pode escrever em português, mas acredito que só brasileiros vão querem ver minhas linhas de suporte e resistência. eu uso um padrão de cores. quanto mais lilas mais forte e mais tempo foi testada a linha, quanto mais pro vermelho mais fraca é a linha. isso porque eu uso escalas diferentes para marcar as linhas, que só são visíveis em cada escala.
o bitcoin segue tendencia de alcançar 100k reais, no final do ano. veja linhas lislas. uma linha azul escuro mostra um canal convergente próprio para prever o preço para final de agosto. linhas azuis claras foram traçadas para precisar o preço.
acredito que e 1 de setembro o preço seja R$ 42.652 previsão altista