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BRLMXN

ridethepig | BRL for the Yearly Close📌 BRL for the Yearly Close This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking: The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side. The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like $ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets: A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
5
BRLMXN | 2021 Grand Slam Trade📌 Another classical procedure can be witnessed here, the combination of fundamentals and technicals, of BRL and MXN, and a live example of an instrument finding a floor for the long run. This advance would (and of course I am considering) be worth attacking and having some involvement rather than laying bare the base of Brazil and Mexico. The correct play is to wait patiently for a confirmed break and hold long enough for the Peso to flee. Be long Brazil, stay long the Real and play the break as follows: Firstly, the BRL diagram which is showing as with a few other currencies signs of bottoming versus USD, and the following two macro formations of Brazilian inflows and Mexican outflows. These drivers are going to dictate the pace and will allow a breakout on BRLMXN for a +50% move. This is not talking in pips, pips are for pipsqueak's... this is a macro swing, a full blown % move which starts as a hedge and when it begins to work with the break it means we can go HARD. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | BRL 2020 Macro MapThis train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy. Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this will provide profit taking and reloading opportunities in 2020. For those really wanting to dig deeper into the flows, retail housing market will be a useful gauge to the next chapter as it will highlight the pace / acceleration of the pick-up. On the technical side, a very clean 5 wave sequence over a multi year period. What we are trading here is the ABC corrective leg via Brazil momentum and capturing a double whammy with USD devaluation. Here tracking 3.70x as the level in play for USDBRL in 2020 macro flows, I also favour BRL on other crosses in particular versus MXN: Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. We can open the Brazil conversation here for the year ahead. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies I have attached them in the related charts.
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle: Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry. If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside. Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely). Good luck those on the buy side.
Long
by ridethepig
Aggressively buying Brazil for the long termHere we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 50 and 61.8% weekly retracement levels at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as 7.25-7.28... here actively working a lot on the buy side in Brazil. Best of luck, hope this helps and lets see how it goes.
Long
by ridethepig
2
BRLMXN has plenty of upside...Here we have a very wide ABC in play with the C leg finishing at 7.25 - 7.28. From a technical perspective, the market has presented a flawless 5 wave impulsive move with a three wave retracement. Those who are betting on the upside will be coming in here at the 38.2% level at 5.09; and we can expect a continuation. There is scope here for as high as 7.25-7.28... here actively working a lot on the buy side in Brazil. Best of luck, hope this helps and lets see how it goes.
Long
by ridethepig
3