DXY v's Brazil Russia India China B.R.I.C. CurrenciesNote how the two large pattern #HVF's kept you dollar long as the main directional trade from 2011 to 2022
But things may be turning around and this trade may, potentially be reversing.
Often when commentators have given up on the idea
of a multi polar world, end of dollar dominance , as price keep going the opposite direction.
Is when the trade actually starts to kick into gear.
These are major resource nations , with 40% of global pop.
30% of the land
and well over a 1/4 of global GDP
Would make sense to see this basket of currencies outperform our beloved Greenback.
BRLUSD
Brazilian RealEverything else is headed back to preCOVID levels, it looks to me like Brazilian Real is doing the same. In this particular case, it's bullish.
The currency is headed up because oil is headed up and Brazil produces more oil than Iran. (#8 in the world)
Just posting this because I plotted it out for myself. EWZ is not currency hedged which means the currency impact influences price, and this is bullish for EWZ
Buy BRL$I have spent a few years in Brazil. I love the place. I have some ties there. I remember I used to get like 2.5/1eur It has massivily devalued over the years. I would find it difficult to spend more than $500 in a month when I was last there. This is looking like a breakout. If you have $ sitting in your bank account or euros or whatever. Buy some real because it is going to double in value. No reason to think it. Only chart stuff. And I dont expect it to take to 2029 it will be in the next year, into 23.
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
USD BRL Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6Minister Paulo Guedes Corrupt destroyed Brazil Target $6
BTC strong what is not lacking is: support - is Altseason
now what we have is:
plenty of Altseasson space to shine
Super Cycle
BTC little jump little jump But the target is consistent
Everything in order
Altseason is ready and loaded ready to explode
Here is pure math
Tips for Buy Fast
PMA Pumapay
XDN Digital Note
GAME Game Credits
EXP Expanse
DTA DATA
BRLUSD might be soon seing new ATL levelsBRLUSD is sitting in a really iffy spot right now and we may see new ATL's soon. If "Support 1" is not holding it is a clear short position for me with a first target at $.1730. If the red box is not finding support BRLUSD will see new ATL levels - what I would be aiming for with this trade.
ridethepig | BRL for the Yearly Close📌 BRL for the Yearly Close
This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking:
The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side.
The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like $ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets:
A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
BTC Breaking Out in the Weakest CurrenciesBitcoin is measured in dollars. So every chart that you see is bitcoin gaining or losing against the US dollar. At the start of bull markets, commodities start to break out in the weakest currencies. Then it starts to break out in the intermediates currencies, then finally it breaks out in USD. So let’s have a look at BTC compared to some of the weakest currencies and see if we are at the early stages of a bull market.
So here we have the Brazilian Real, the Turkish Lyra, the South African Rand, and the Russian Ruble. They have all made new monthly closing highs. These can act as clues for the start of a bull market, which I believe we are in. It also goes to show you that the US dollar is eating other currencies alive! That is it for today. Keep your head on a swivel!
Happy Trading!
BRAZILIAN REAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS|
BRAZILIAN REAL IS APPROACHING A SUPPORT LEVEL, GOOD RISK REWARD LONG|
1- Decent long opportunity at both support 1 and support 2
2- The pair moves nicely, unlike, say, JPY pairs
3-Clear SL levels
4- Great Risk/Reward at both supports
LIKE and SUBSCRIBE to say THANK YOU!
ridethepig | BRL 2020 Macro MapThis train is picking up speed and as most of those who follow the Brazilian chart updates will know there is now momentum via Bolsonaro's pension reform. This is giving consumers the ability to drive growth into 2020 and beyond via things like credit and the appropriate monetary policy.
Inflation is still coming down which means CB can keep lower rates, this will provide profit taking and reloading opportunities in 2020. For those really wanting to dig deeper into the flows, retail housing market will be a useful gauge to the next chapter as it will highlight the pace / acceleration of the pick-up.
On the technical side, a very clean 5 wave sequence over a multi year period. What we are trading here is the ABC corrective leg via Brazil momentum and capturing a double whammy with USD devaluation. Here tracking 3.70x as the level in play for USDBRL in 2020 macro flows, I also favour BRL on other crosses in particular versus MXN:
Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc. We can open the Brazil conversation here for the year ahead. For those wanting to dig deeper with the 2020 strategies I have attached them in the related charts.
Coffee is on a rise! It must be the caffeine I have just closed out a +8% trade and I am going long again.
The initial fundamentals where:
Brazillian drought
US-China trade war increasing agriculture exports out of Brazil
Weak $BRLUSD
Although some of these fundamentals are starting to wane, the technicals continue to show that Coffee has more to go
ridethepig | BRLMXN 2020 Macro MapA timely update to my Latam charts as we approach year-end. The bullish BRL theme I have maintained all year long is starting to attract a lot of interest with the idiosyncratic pension reform. Macro data in Brazil is showing signs of finding a floor and BCB have confirmed the end of the easing cycle:
Those with more conservative hands looking to ride this for the long term can comfortably lean on BRL with carry exposure now capped. MXN is showing no signs of improvement and remains as uncertain as ever, whenever I talk to clients on the topic they speak of concerns around Mexico risk and the dovish Banxico weighing on the MXN carry.
If you ask me we are going to see a major flop in policy from Banxico and with Brazil set to recover on all fronts it remains a strategic long in all my LATAM portfolios. This is not a quick 50-100 pip trade where we are shooting blanks hoping one lands, rather this is trading a major macro flow with +11% upside.
Highly recommend all to find a way to find a way to benefit from these flows, the only downside is coming from growth momentum in Brazil fading (unlikely) and overshoots in Mexico (also highly unlikely).
Good luck those on the buy side.