Brazilian REAL to accelerate devaluation against the USDWe suggest that the Brazilian Real is in a long cup&handle trend formation here showed on the monthly frame.
We expect an acceleration on the REAL devaluation once the 4 reais level is crossed.
Other fundamental aspects in favor of this view are the Brazilian Government several recent failed attempts to revert the current negative patter, the decaying Brazilian economy and the country's political turmoil. We can't see any fundamental that could revert the course of the REAL devaluation, on the opposite the odds are stacking against it.
Technically speaking the only positive aspect of the chart for the REAL is the overbought RSI/Scholastic for the USD. That signals a possible incoming reset of these indicators, and we would expect some sideways action for couple of months until the 4 Reais level is broken.
We favor a long USD for the next 24 months trend.
BRLUSD
Correction to be continued in the Bovespa (Brazil) indexThe Brazil index, Bovespa, often trades in tandem with the Brazilian Real. The index is showing signs of weakness. A good hedge is shorting the Brazilian Real. This is because the Brazilian economy is exchange rate sensitive. See image below to see its consistency.
If the breakdown in the Bovespa breaks the wedge to the downside beyond the minimum target, I believe it is limited to 74,000. Right into the red box. At that point I will be a major buyer
Relation between BTC USA vs BTC BRAZIL in percentageThis is a graph show the relation between the BTC in the Coinbase US Market and the BTC BR in the MercadoBitcoin market, Brazil. Adjusted with the dollar and to show the numbers in percentage. If the number is positive, you have a difference of a price higher in the US Market, viewing the direct percentage in the chart.
Spread between BTCBRL and BTCUSDLooks like we had an opportunity to explore the arbitrage spread between BRL / USD using bitcoin in August. It existed until late September but closed in 2 days, coming back from 20% to 7%. Another window was back in May.17, but it lasted for shorter than the Aug one, which is interesting.
Do you guys agree? How could be possible that the market let this happen for longer than it has previously occurred? Is there a lack of transactional liquidity in Brazil that didn´t allow crypto traders to take advantage of those arbitrage opportunity as they would like to?
Please share your thoughts.
RMG
BRLUSD: Technical bottom spottedI think this can be the bottom of the recent pullback in the Brazilian Real. I'm long $BRL as an oil proxy here, shorting $USDBRL with a tight stop at 3.3415.
The political crisis might be averted, and the currency can soar, specially with the extreme negative sentiment currently affecting it.
Best of luck to our brazilian friends, and to anyone taking the trade.
Ivan Labrie.