Inverted Cup and Handle Top or Descending Broadening Wedge?As many of you know United States and Japan's diplomats have been working on the Trans-Pacific Trade Agreement TPP. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is an ambitious plan for a free trade agreement among 12 countries which, if realized, could cover 40 percent of global GDP. It is a key plank in President Obama's foreign policy, and an effort to anchor the US firmly to a region that is increasingly feeling the pull of Beijing's mighty economy. But huge sticking points remain, with the US and Japan -- the world's first and third largest economies -- fighting to protect important domestic industries. Washington and many of the other parties to the talks -- which also involve Chile, Mexico, Canada and several Asian countries -- say Japan's unwillingness to open its lucrative agricultural market is a deal-breaker.
Below is a news brief on the situation.
"US Trade Representative Michael Forman and his Japanese counterpart Akira Amari said 18 hours of discussions had done little to reduce the "distance" between them, especially on farm and auto products. We agreed today that our negotiators will continue until the end of the week (with) the discussion on agriculture and autos"
Gridlock between Japan and United States has shaped the charts in a unique way.
Chart Pattern
Near Term
Descending (Falling) Broadening Wedge
For the past few weeks, as many of you know from Trading View’s message board, I have posted the descending (aka falling) broadening wedge pattern. The pattern has worked perfectly and looks to be ending soon. As you can see on our chart, the falling wedge has kept closer to inside descending support line in recent weeks. This could mean that we will react in opposite manner, and the falling pattern would elongate to our upper resistance (thick black descending line) shaping a handle, or the pattern is breaking down and will speed up to the downside. I posted likely key support area's using a Fibonacci extension from important tops and bottoms from the descending wedge pattern.
Big Picture
Cup and Handle Top Pattern (6 month Cup)
Neckline 84.00 (horizontal) to 83.00 (following descending support; 0 to -2.5 degrees)
Possible Secondary Deeper Neckline at 83.00 to 82.00 (following descending support; -2.5 to -6 degrees)
Measured Target(s) 79.13 , 77.33 and 76.06
If we look at our related event between Japan and U.S. that is triggering the pattern we have shaped, and with an optimistic outcome next week, we should see our bottom somewhere near those necklines I posted above. I would also expect a possible breakout above the handle(s) I charted, rendering the cup and handle a busted pattern and the broadening wedge as a breakout. However, without a deal between the U.S. and Japan next week. I would think the market could quickly turn negative and we could fulfill the measured targets I mentioned above, measured target(s) 79.13 , 77.33 and 76.06
