📢 The Broadening FormationA technical chart pattern recognized by analysts, known as a broadening formation or Megaphone Pattern, is characterized by expanding price fluctuation. It is represented by two lines, one ascending and one descending, that diverge from each other. This pattern typically appears after a significant increase or decrease in security prices and is denoted by a sequence of higher and lower turning points. Normally this pattern is visible when the market is at its top or bottom. The greater the time frame is better the pattern will work.
🔹How to identify
Generally, the Broadening Formation consists of 5 different swings. But the swing has to have a minimum of two higher highs and two lower lows. A trend line is drawn by connecting point 1 and point 3 while points 2 and 4 are also joined together to draw a line.
These two lines create a shape that looks like a megaphone or inverted symmetric triangle. These swings’ highs and lows have to close above or below its pivot line and therefore they will create swing high as pivot high (R1, R2, and R3) and swing lows as pivot lows (S1, S2, and S3).
A breakout occurs when the line does not respect its support or resistance line and closes outside the shape after making the 5th swing.
🔹Volume
Volume plays an important role when it comes to the recognition of this pattern.
In the Broadening Top, volume usually peaks along with prices.
An increase in the volume, on the day of the pattern confirmation, is a strong indicator.
🔹Failures
This pattern also can be traded when it fails but is necessary to identify the failure perfectly.
A failure can be spotted when it fails to break the trend line (upper or lower as the case may be) after completing the 5th swing.
Suppose in a bull market condition, this pattern is formed and if it fails to break the upper trend line, traders go short when the price goes below 3rd swing high (R2).
Similar is the scenario, when the market is in a bear phase and it fails to break the lower trend line (S2), traders take a long position when the price closes above the 3rd swing high.
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Broadeningformations
OH MY $SPY !! Here is my full analysis - Lots to Review!$SPY has me on the edge of my chair here on the weekly and boy is there lots to review..
Let's start with where we left off last time..
The INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER is still in play, I know, I sound like a broken record, but it's true, not broken, and we closed the daily on the $390 support level to back up this theory.
(Green Outline) represents a BROADENING DESCENDING WEDGE (Bullish) which has been respected since the beginning of the year in January. A bounce off $390 will send it upwards to a 3rd tap of the upper trendline and possibly break-through. A break through does not necessarily mean new ATH, OMG we broke through, "new all time highs" .. umm no sir .. this particular pattern could break-out and epically FAIL.. here is why..
(Purple Outline) is highlighting a RISING WEDGE (Overall Bearish) - should we hold the line here, at $390 on the weekly, this pattern will continue upwards to tap the upper trend for a 3rd time (generally followed by a heavy rejection - hence bearish), this compliments the INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER mentioned above, but technically would end up failing as it nears the neckline aka top channel of the rising wedge.
But let's not lose sight so quickly, we still have to hold the line near $390 tomorrow in order for these patterns to play out without failure. I provided a chart earlier today from my phone of the current falling wedge on spy 15 min - 1 hour time frame so I am hopeful for a run up BUT if we break below -- there are many areas of support and plenty of gaps to fill and trades to be played.
GAPS are marked in RED.
Good luck traders!
#TheStrat SPY Looking for an Outside Week #sss50percentruleThis post follows #TheStrat trading strategy. Google it for more info.
SPY is approaching the 50% level of last week’s candle and could be looking to form an outside week. The yellow lines are short targets.
SPY stopped out buyers, then stopped out the sellers, stopped out buyers again, and stopped out sellers again, forming this dark blue broadening formation.
Yesterday, buyers tried to push it out of the dark blue broadening formation and fill higher gaps, but it failed, which looks like a fake-out in the morning and a lot of selling afterwards throughout the rest of today.
SPY is currently looking like it could fill the gap to the downside and push this week under the low of last week, stopping out last week’s buyers and making this week an outside week.
This is especially more likely because we are in full-timeframe continuity to the downside, meaning all timeframes are currently a red candle, which indicates selling on all timeframes.
This theory is based off of the #sss50percentrule (made by SaraStratSniper), for example, when a candle goes 2-up, if it starts selling and passes the 50% level of the previous candle, it has a higher chance of becoming an outside week to the downside.
Educational purposes only, thank you for reading :)
#TheStrat BTC Full Timeframe Continuity to the DownsideWe are currently inside of a green weekly candle on bitcoin after a nice run for crypto.
However, we are still inside of a big red monthly candle, putting Bitcoin at risk for going Full-Timeframe Continuity to the downside. This means each timeframe’s latest candle is a red candle which indicates selling on all timeframes.
Here are the short targets into full-timeframe continuity to the downside for Bitcoin.
My ideas from my last posts still stand, putting a potential bottom for Bitcoin at 13,000 to 16,000, which is the bottom of the broadening formation on the longer term timeframes.
All of my posts thus far follow a trading strategy called “The Strat”, which is based on price action scenarios, multiple timeframes, and broadening formations.
Educational purposes only, thanks for reading :)
#TheStrat BTC 13k to 16k Still a Possibility!4hr Chart shows the small broadening formation we are currently inside of
I would watch the price action closely in this broadening formation and the longer term formation from my last post and look for bullish reversals (ex. 2u-1-2d, etc) on the daily and weekly timeframes.
Keep in mind that the monthly timeframe is still red, my humble prediction for the reversal and recovery of bitcoin would be within 2 months . This is so that the monthly chart candles have a chance to form an actual reversal (ex. 2d-1-2u).
Educational purposes only, not financial advice.
Thanks for reading :)
#TheStrat BTC Broadening Formation 13k to 16k BottomWeekly Chart shows a longer term broadening formation with the purple box as my potential bottom at 13k-16k for BTC
Daily Chart shows we continue to fail to push towards the high of the broadening formation and continue to break lower
4hr Chart shows that we are quickly approaching the long term broadening formation
I would watch the price action around this lower broadening formation and look for bullish reversals.
Educational purposes only, this is not financial advice.
DAX: What if China is not back to work on MondayRight now, we have a broadening formation in the DAX; this usually happens, when the market in disagreement. On the upside this lead us to 13,720, but what would happen if China is going to extend the "vacations" by another two/four weeks. For German manufacturers this would lead to an demand shock, since a lot of German manufacturers are heavily involved in the supply chain of Chinese companies (via JV).
So, what do we see:
Higher volumes: Cash-Market and Future volumes (Source: deutsche-boerse-cash-market)
Trumpet (starting in Nov. 2019 - Feb. 2020); disagreement in the market
Short signal: Hindenburg-Indicator
Short Signal: MACD weekly
Upper end of the trend channel
Event would affect the cashflows of German companies (for at least this year)
My trading plan depends this time on the news which we will get within the next couple of days.
If we see an extend of the "vacation", I expect another sell-off, which could lead us to the EMA 200 daily.