FGR - POSITIVE NEWS INBOUND?First Graphene Limited - Currently in a trading halt, and coming into the new week with positive news could see them break this descending triangle and break the 12 month downtrend.
1. More positive news out of the trading halt will see buyer momentum and volume return to the market.
-Increased Volume & Momentum
-Double Bottom off .382 Fibs (Strong reversal)
-Break Descending Triangle & Test Descending Broadening Wedge
-MACD close to a Golden Cross
-Potential 20% push pending break Broadening Wedge
2. News isn't enough. Sellers continue the squeeze into the corner and push price below strong support a 0.12
-Descending Triangle completed
-MACD spreads without cross
-Continuation of Broadening Wedge confirms
-RSI will return to OverSold region
-Fall would see a reduction of 30% before Support found
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These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTAH. Happy Hunting!!!
Broadening Wedge
S&P500 stalls While overall trend is still bullish, the S&P500, shown here by the ES!1 futures, had overextended, and stalled with an inside candle at the breakout of the (adjusted) Broadening Wedge. Any lower close would mean a break back down into the rising wedge.
The S&P500 has stalled at the earlier drawn Final resistance level as well.
MACD is still bullish, but indicates that momentum sputtered. It is time for a retracement, and waiting for confirmation of break back into the broadening wedge. MACD would need to cross down and price level close below the trailing stop level.
Look out for 2860 as the wedge support downside target, around end June / early July. Meanwhile, expect some volatillity going forward (up and down).
Meanwhile, keep in mind that a failed pattern tends to extrude on the other end, and particularly an ascending broadening wedge typically breaks down . Projections later when we have confirmed break back into the wedge...
Bullish with extreme caution.
Stay tuned, stay safe!
Don't Get Trapped Muhh Bois We could easily fall out of the channel now, but i suspect we will have one more swing up above 10.5k to trap in longs before heading back to the 6k region.
I plan on re-entering around the mid point of this Gann Fan to ride an oversold bounce, then plan on loading in more in the green zone into the new years 2-5k price range incoming in my opinion.
feel free to post ideas of your own in the comments if you see it differently than myself, i always like seeing differing opinion.
Good luck and safe trading my friends.
EURO/USD reversing or just testing?Is the euro/usd reversing or just testing? I see it closing the week in a expanding wedge, which indicates a continuation. We will have a retracement but I don't believe it to be true till a reversal pattern is evident. Sunday/Monday I will be looking for the head and shoulder to form or fail.
FX_IDC:EURUSD
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Disclaimer
The material and information contained in this analysis is for general information and educational purposes only. You should not rely upon the material or information on any of my analysis as a basis for making any business, legal, or any other decisions.
Why this time things might be different for BTCHello,
Looking at the bigger picture, Bitcoin is very close o confirming one huge achievement: exiting the enormous descending triangle it had entered 2017. I think if the breakout gets confirmed on the weekly timeframe, the other two patterns I have on the chart might have a chance to play out:
1) V-shape bottom, with a target close to 16k
2) Descending broadening wedge pattern, with a target close to 18.6k. I observe that no one is talking about this pattern. I just spotted it. What's interesting about this scenario is that the possibility to touch 3,8k price was there all the time and COVID-19 was only the spark(the story that the big players needed). Jesus, only if I could've spotted this in February! :) This pattern also implies that if BTC doesn't continue its rise, and will reenter the broadening wedge, the price can hit 2k, near the lower part of the broadening wedge. An unlikely scenario, if you ask me.
Can we fall from 9.9k(where we are at this moment)? Absolutely! But I think we are getting more and more close to entering a bull market. Will it be this year? Will it the next year? I don't know. :)
Good luck with your trades!
Sisif
Ethereum - Broadening Wedge PatternsBroadening Wedge Patterns - “Megaphones”
A Broadening Wedge is a range where the price is holding between two trend lines that are moving apart. The pattern is also named a “Megaphones” because of its shape.
These chart patterns are similar to triangles, wedges, flags and pennants.
Broadening Wedges can be either Bullish or Bearish depending on how they form within an existing trend. There are some clues in the pattern itself that suggest whether the market is likely to continue the same trend or reverse.
You can trade these chart patterns as range trades between the highs and lows of the support/resistance lines. They can of course also be traded as breakouts
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Targets> Featured area - gray box
BEARISH in the short term
ADVANCED Long term
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#ETH #ETHEREUM #ETHER #BUTERIN #VITALIK
USDCHF ShortALOHA
Hope your May is on pace for dominance! There have been a lot of nice moves that I was not personally to capture but still stoked to be watching the strategies play out. I am currently sitting at -1% for the month with 3 BE trades. I am currently look at USDCHF reversal short.
D - Price does not always have to touch a resistance or support line, the ray lines represent areas which is why i condsider this a triple top in my analysis. Within an overall side ways channel.
4hr - Overall price on USDCHF is moving in nice patterns. Ascending channel, within horizontal flag. Multple touches before price moves. , nice confirmations. The only thing however, is the 4hr 50ema being in the way. I'm anticipating price hovering around that area which will then decide where the market wants to go.
1hr - broke below 50ema, creating a minor hover just under it after nice bearish engulfing run.
Waited to put entry until new market day. Will hold over the weekend or get taken out. It is what it is. Thanks for reading. have a good weekend traders. Since typing this up, trade was triggered due to spreads. It is what it is.
GBPUSD - Broadening formation for a long term investment(short)It looks like a Broadening Formation.
This formation appears generally at the end of a Bullish Market (not very frequent for the current situation)
This broadening formation can tell us that the market is out of control and it is too emotional due to the unusual public participation.
Generally it is a bearing formation
Wedges anyone? Pt.2 XRPXRP has formed a descending broadening wedge
This is very bullish when assigned to a daily chart
Is the long shake over?
Target upon breakout would be the top of the fib spiral, it can also be seen that the resistance of the fib spiral has been broken, creating new possibilities for a breakout
My previous idea showing an ascending scallop which is bullish after a pullback
And the MA bounce that will most likely occur on XRP
Dow Jones Monthly 38.2% Fib TestThe Dow Jones monthly chart shows price testing support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level in the total Fibonacci range from the 2009 Global Financial Crisis low to the February 2020 all-time high. Price had previously breached the 38.2% Fib level during the initial coronavirus selloff while also breaking below the broadening wedge pattern and finding support at the 50% Fib level which is the midpoint of the total Fib range. Price remaining above the 38.2% Fib level and lower line of the broadening wedge indicates that traders are attempting to keep the overall trend bullish. A breach below the 38.2% Fib level would indicate that traders are losing bullish conviction and that a re-test of the 50% would be likely.
The 50% Fib rests in the same area that price previously topped out at in 2015 as the Federal Reserve began monetary tightening with the first interest rate hike since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The main level to watch is the 50% Fib as a move below that level would likely indicate downtrend continuation with a loss of 50% of the gains seen since the 2009 low; a move below the 61.8% Fib level would be confirmation of bear market continuation.
The monthly RSI is below the 50 level which indicates bearish momentum behind price; an RSI reading above 50 is considered bullish while a reading below 50 is considered bearish.
The PPO is declining but remains above the 0 level, though a cross below it looks likely. A PPO reading above 0 is considered bullish while a reading below 0 is considered bearish.
REPBTC Broadening Wedge| Structural Resistance| 200 MAEvening Traders!
Today’s technical analysis will focus on REPBTC, in a valid broadening wedge formation with a failed partial raise at structural resistance.
Points to consider,
- Trend bearish – consecutive lower highs
- Structural resistance being tested
- 200 MA – local support
- RSI trading in a channel
- Stochastics in upper regions
- Irregular volume present
Augur is in a clear defined down trend on the macro scale and is travelling in a broadening wedge that will be confirmed with a break of its ascending support line.
The current local support is being established by the 200 MA, a break of this will be in confluence with a break of the broadening wedge.
Staunched structural resistance has been respected multiple times; it is in confluence with the .382 Fibonacci. A close above and consolidation will likely test the upper resistance line of the broadening wedge.
The RSI is in a clear channel, currently neutral, breaking this channel will dictate the direction of the price. Stochastics are currently in the upper regions, can stay trading here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the downside.
Augur has irregular volume being present, common in broadening wedge patterns , an influx will be prevalent with a decisive break.
Overall, in my opinion, Augur needs to consolidate above structural resistance and create multiple higher lows to negate this pattern. A break of lower support line will however increase the likelihood of testing lower lows.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market’s behaviour, the struggle will cease to exist.” – Mark Douglas
$SPY S&P with a potential target of $155. More downside 2 comeOn average, the S&P for the past 2 recessions shows a full down move from its cycle highs of about 50% or more. We are currently down only 35%. Next significant support with Volume by price and support levels shows around $155. Let the chart guide you before the narrative
UBER Falling Broadening WedgeSupport/resistance lines
1. $41.95
2. $33.96
Trend lines
1. The first main trend line begin with the IPO lunch and forms the support line for the falling wedge.
2.The second main trend line begin with the initial structure high at $47.16 and forms the resistance line for the falling wedge.
Falling Broadening Wedge
We can see the Falling Broadening Wedge forming slow with the Highest point at $47.17 and the lowest point at around $15. The resistance trend line has been touched 2 times and the support trend line has been touched 3 (4) times since the form.
In the falling broadening wedges the most usual scenario is the the price consolidation when falling in that two trend lines and in some point the price to break the resistance trend line and form a breakout.
RSI
1. 5-Period Rsi
In that period i used it to define the main swings/waves of the charts.Based on oversold-overbought areas.
2. 14-Period Rsi
In that period i used to define possible divergences.
Scenario
Broadening Wedge Support TestThe Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI) closed at $19,989, down -6.3% today and fell below the $20,000 level for the first time since 2016 meaning that stocks have now given back all of the gains made in the past 4 years. The market is now down -32% from the all-time high of $29,568 made on February 12th meaning that it has taken a little over a month to wipe out four years of gains. This is a massive move and the steepest, fastest decline in market history.
Traders sold price down below the lower line of the broadening wedge, but ended up closing price above the wedge line indicating that this lower line is acting as a technical price support level as expected in previous charts highlighting this wedge pattern. The lower wick of the candle today shows that traders also sold price below $19,000 during the trading day, but ultimately enough buyers stepped in to keep price above the lower wedge line, indicated by today’s candle body being above the wedge line. There is also added support at the lower red line which stems from an historic level of interest by traders back in 2015 which was pointed out in the previous price chart shared.
The hold above these technical levels comes as the US government announced a $1.2 trillion stimulus package which includes company bailouts as well as financial support to US citizens via a $1,000 check in April and a $1,000 check in May. In my previous chart, I expected both a test of the lower wedge line and bounce due to technical traders buying this level, as well as fundamental traders buying stimulus news.
Now that we have witnessed both the technical levels being reached and the fundamental stimulus news, I’m expecting more selling as the stimulus package appears to be too small, and arriving too late, in the face of an outbreak that is still growing exponentially. Until more extreme measures are taken to control the outbreak, thus limiting the long-term affect to the economy, traders will remain fearful due to the ongoing hit to company revenue and earnings as case counts rise. The current stimulus package is enough to float markets for two months, but nothing is being done from a health perspective in order to ensure that the virus is slowed, let alone stopped, within two months. We may see a bounce tomorrow and Friday as this technical level and stimulus provide some short-term hope to traders, but the bounce will likely not last as the underlying issue is not being dealt with in a forceful enough manner. As case counts continue to rise, so will traders fear of the governments ability to contain the outbreak with just money. As I mentioned before, if the only tool the government has to fight a crisis is money, then every problem has to look like a money problem. This coronavirus is most certainly not a money problem, it is a public health problem that needs a cure or extreme containment countermeasures to combat.
The most important level to watch this week is the lower wedge line as a close below this level would be bearish/negative from a technical point of view and indicate that it is no longer a support level. Traders may also flip back to being fearful that the government’s stimulus is not enough to prevent further hits to the economy.
Overall view remains neutral with the expectation of a short-term bounce due to technical support levels being reached and fundamental support via massive Federal Reserve and government bailouts. View will switch back to bearish if lower support levels are breached which is expected as US coronavirus case counts rise.
Dow Jones Broadening Wedge Test(Lower)The Dow Jones saw another massive decline today, down -13% and nearly $3,000 in a single session making this the new record one-day point decline in history for the Dow and smashing the previous record of -$2,000 which was made last week. High volatility has been expected over the past two weeks and we are getting it in extraordinary fashion as traders appear to be experiencing emotionally-driven panic selling on top of the unknown in company and economic fundamentals which is causing selling as well. It is yet to be known how long this coronavirus is going to be affecting the economy as more states and businesses are forced into lockdown. Without knowing what impact this will have on revenue and earnings going forward, it makes sense to sell from a fundamental point of view, but the speed and rate of decline appear to be mostly emotional selling.
In the panic selloff seen today there may be a glimmer of hope from a technical perspective. Traders have now sold price down nearly -32% from the all-time high and are now testing the lower line of the broadening wedge pattern. We have yet to see a significant bounce during the decline other than the last minute bid witnessed as President Trump made the state of emergency declaration on Friday afternoon going into the market close. We saw a +10% gain mostly made in the last 15 minutes of trading on Friday which indicates that there is an appetite to buy the dip from traders, but the weekend news cycle put them back in fear mode by the time markets re-opened today. Such a strong fear mode that not even the Federal Reserve’s second emergency interest rate cut within a week-which took the Federal Funds rate down to 0%-nor the announcement of a return to Quantitative Easing could ease.
Markets are beginning to look very oversold in the short-term and I’m thinking we could see a technical bounce off of the lower wedge line if enough technical traders are still around and watching the charts. Along with the lower wedge line, there is also the horizontal support/resistance line stemming from the 2015 price peak which was created when the Federal Reserve announced monetary tightening by raising interest rates back then. Traders became fearful as rates went up as they feared it would slow economic growth, but ultimately began buying again as forward guidance from the Fed eased their fears. This red trendline is also another technical level where traders could be tempted to buy due the severe oversold conditions we are seeing, and due the fact that previous resistance levels normally turn into support in technical analysis.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnunchin has also been working at a fast pace to provide some fiscal stimulus to the economy which is what traders mostly want to see aside from just Federal Reserve intervention in the banking sector. Fiscal stimulus would add much needed relief to not only struggling companies, but also to the American consumers via deferred tax payments for companies as well as a complete payroll tax suspension for employers through the rest of the year.
The expected fiscal stimulus amount is $800 billion, but Mnunchin and other economic officials could surprise markets with an even larger amount in economic relief which wouldn’t be too surprising considering that we’ve recently seen the Federal Reserve surprise markets with two emergency interest rate cuts within a week as well last weeks surprise announcement of $1.5 trillion in REPO.
If we get a combination of a price test of the lower wedge line along with more solid details of the economic relief package being pushed through the House this week it would give both technical and fundamental traders cause to buy at the same time which more than likely would lead to a record-breaking move to the upside. Whether or not that potential bounce would hold would largely depend on the coronavirus though. That is still the major unknown in markets right now and if case and death rates in the US continue higher and lead to more states shutting down, or potentially the entire country, traders could quickly return to selling.
For now the overall price trend remains down, but a bounce tomorrow or Wednesday is expected due to technical levels of support being reached and the expectation of a large amount of fiscal stimulus to be announced by Thursday.
Current view has now changed from bearish to neutral due to oversold conditions along with the technical levels reached and expected fiscal stimulus